Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade flows in the context of disaggregating industry data of bilateral trade between Korea and Japan. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used. Results show that Korea's exports and imports are relatively sensitive to the bilateral exchange rate in the short-run, but less responsive in the long-run. It is also found that income in the two countries has significant impacts on the bilateral trade flows in both the short- and long-run. Finally, exchange rate uncertainty and Japanese FDI to Korea are found to have little impacts on Korea's trade with Japan in the short- and long-run.     

Currency depreciations and the U.S.–Italian trade balance: Industry-level estimates

As one of the indebted Southern European countries that have put pressure on the Euro in recent months, Italy would benefit from a reduction in its external trade deficit. One channel could be through a weakening of its currency—which would only work if the Euro depreciated against the currency of an outside importer, such as the U.S. dollar. This study examines the response of the trade balances of 106 individual industries to such depreciations, using annual data and applying cointegration analysis. We find that only 19 industries register a long-run improvement, with these concentrated in miscellaneous manufactures (SITC sector 8). Two major products in the automotive industry—petroleum and road motor vehicles, show evidence of a “J-curve” effect.     

Currency fluctuations and the French–U.S. trade balance: evidence from 118 industries

The impact of currency depreciations on trade has inspired a large body of research. Recent studies have examined industry-level trade, often using cointegration analysis, finding that a significant fraction of industries respond positively to devaluations. Oftentimes, adjustment lags result in a “J curve” effect, where devaluations hurt the trade balance temporarily. This study examines the specific case of trade between the United States and France, but finds that these flows are less sensitive than has been shown for other country pairs. Only 30 of 118 industries see increased trade balances after a dollar depreciation, and virtually none follow any type of a “J curve.” Certain industry sectors are more sensitive than others, however. Examining the SITC classifications of those 30 industries, we find that many of them are clustered in the SITC 700 (Machinery and Transport Equipment) and 800 (Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles) categories. In particular, clothing and footwear, as well as electrical equipment, are particularly affected.     

Does exchange-rate uncertainty matter in the Malaysia–E.U. bilateral trade? An industry level investigation

Due to ambiguity in the past literature, researchers have examined exchange rate volatility effect on trade using disaggregated data in recent years. Previous research has focused more on aggregated data having aggregation bias which has led to unnecessarily over-generalized findings. This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the Malaysian bilateral trade flows with European Union using industry level data. Our empirical findings, based on auto-regressive distributed lag framework, suggest that many import and export industries experience exchange rate volatility influence in the short run, while a very small number of industries show this effect in the long run. Moreover, the adverse impact of financial crisis (2007–2008) is more prevalent on import industries compared to export industries.     

The economic and trade effects of the UK–Korea free trade agreement on the United Kingdom,Korea, Japan,China, and the European Union

We explored a comparative static computable general equilibrium model with six regions and 12 sectors to estimate the impacts of the recent UK–Korea free trade agreement (FTA) along with the European Union (EU)–Korea FTA. The empirical results provide quantitative evidence of the impact on national GDP, national exports and imports by sector, and the changes in exports or imports among the United Kingdom, Korea, Japan, China, and the EU. The UK–Korea FTA, along with the EU–Korea FTA, increases GDP and welfare for the United Kingdom and Korea; moreover, there is a large increase in automobiles, transport equipment, and machinery exports between Korea and the United Kingdom. The GDP and welfare level of non-member countries such as Japan and China will slightly decline. Exports from the United Kingdom and Korea to non-member countries are also expected to decrease in most manufacturing sectors. The UK–Korea FTA will lead to increases in imports between the United Kingdom and Korea due to mutual trade creation effects and trade diversion effects. However, non-member countries such as Japan's exports are expected to experience a large decline in automobiles to the United Kingdom and in most manufacturing products to Korea due to the negative impact of the UK–Korea FTA.     

Where do the new U.S. immigrants live?

"Analyzing the location choices of the post-1964 U.S. immigrants results in three main findings: (1) these immigrants are more geographically concentrated than natives of the same age and ethnicity and reside in cities with large ethnic populations; (2) education plays a key role in location choice, reducing geographic concentration and the likelihood of being in cities with a high concentration of fellow countrymen and increasing the probability of changing locations after arrival in the United States; (3) internal migration within the United States occurs more frequently among immigrants than natives and facilitates the process of assimilation for the more educated individuals."     

Trade diversion effects of the US–China trade war on Vietnam

This paper empirically examines the US–China trade war that began in mid-2018, focusing on the impact on a third country, Vietnam. Using regression analysis, we found that while the trade war had a negative impact on US imports from China for all targeted products, there was a partial offset from increased imports from other countries. Notably, US imports from Vietnam experienced a sharp increase, particularly after the third round of US import tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, our research reveals that the four rounds of tariff escalation affected US imports from China differently depending on their end-use and technology intensity.     

Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. households with input–output analysis. Part 2: Simulation

This is the second part of a two-part paper that integrates economic and industrial ecology methods to estimate the indirect rebound effect from residential energy efficiency investments. We apply the model developed in part one to simulate the indirect rebound, given an estimate of the direct rebound, using a 2002 environmentally-extended input–output model and the 2004 Consumer Expenditure Survey (in 2002$) for the U.S. We find an indirect rebound of 5–15% in primary energy and CO₂e emissions, assuming a 10% direct rebound, depending on the fuel saved with efficiency and household income. The indirect rebound can be as high as 30–40% in NO_x or SO₂ emissions for efficiency in natural gas services. The substitution effect modeled in part one is small in most cases, and we discuss appropriate applications for proportional or income elasticity spending assumptions. Large indirect rebound effects occur as the U.S. electric grid becomes less-carbon intensive, in households with large transportation demands, or as energy prices increase. Even in extreme cases, there is limited evidence for backfire, or a rebound effect greater than 100%. Enacting pollution taxes or auctioned permits that internalize the externalities of energy use would ensure that rebound effects unambiguously increase consumers' welfare.     

Exchange rate undervaluation and manufactured exports: A deliberate strategy?

Recent literature suggests that a proactive exchange rate policy in accordance with price incentives (i.e. undervaluation) can foster manufactured exports and growth. This paper is built on these recent developments and investigates, using a sample of 52 developing countries, whether such a proactive exchange rate policy is adopted. The results show that during the period 1991–2005 a number of countries has used undervaluation to foster the price competitiveness of manufactured exports.     

The effects of macroeconomic stability on foreign trade. An analysis for Spain, 1986–2000

Two main factors underlie the rebirth of interest in the study of the influence of the real exchange rate on trade, the reduction of its volatility and the current trend towards price stability. The objective of this study is to analyse the effects of the process of nominal convergence, required of the European member states for the fulfilment of monetary integration, on foreign trade flows. The case of Spain, which is especially interesting in this context, is studied for the period 1986 to 2000. The results of estimating the aggregate functions of the export and import of goods shows how macroeconomic stability has altered the behaviour of trade with respect to the two basic determinants – income and prices – how it has caused a significant structural change in the real exchange rate and, finally, how it has laid the explanatory bases for transactions in the twenty-first century with the single currency – the euro.     

Comparative Study on Venture Capital among U.S.A., Japan and China

This essay, through comparing venture capital in China＇s modernization with U.S.A., Japan, summarizes the different characteristics of venture capital of the United States and Japan, and thinks that China＇s present modernization, as a flag of developing countries, has already entered middle period of industrialization, according to the experience of U.S.A., Japan and reality of China. The technological progress mode has already been changed from technology import to technological innovation stage at this time. In order to encourage innovations, we must develop venture capital in a more effective manner. The national conditions have determined the technology import of China, which must start with a high points, this is the most important condition of target to choose. The venture capital of China in system transitional period should use U.S.A.＇s experience for reference even more on the capital source to pay close attention to the capital sources of the government and bank. Once the government guides and starts the market, the folk capital will show the natural instinct of the capital automatically Risk investment is the embodiment capitalized personality spirit, in order to dispose such ambitious culture. We need the reform of the system as well as dispose risk investor＇s stratum at present.     

A new international database on education quality: 1965–2010

The aim of this article is to propose a new database allowing a comparative evaluation of the relative performance of schooling systems around the world. We measure this performance through pupils’ achievement in standardized tests. We merge all existing regional and international student achievement tests by using a specific methodology. When compared with other existing databases, our approach innovates in several ways, especially by including regional student achievement tests and intertemporal comparable indicators. We provide a data set of indicators of quality of student achievement for 103 countries/areas in primary education and 111 countries/areas in secondary education between 1965 and 2010.     

Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. households with input–output analysis Part 1: Theoretical framework

This is the first part of a two-part paper providing an analytical model of the indirect rebound effect, given a direct rebound estimate, that integrates consumer demand theory with the embodied energy of household spending from environmentally-extended input–output analysis. The second part applies the model developed in part one to simulate the direct and indirect rebound for the average U.S. household in terms of primary energy, CO₂e, NO_x, and SO₂ emissions and for energy efficiency investments in electricity, natural gas, or gasoline services. Part one provides a critical review of the largely independent economic and industrial ecology literatures on the indirect rebound. By studying the two-goods case and the n-goods case, we demonstrate that the indirect rebound is bounded by the consumer budget constraint, and inversely related to the direct rebound. We also compare the common proportional spending and income elasticity spending assumptions with our model of cross-price elasticities including both substitution and income effects for the indirect rebound. By assuming zero incremental capital costs and the same embodied energy as conventional technologies for efficient appliances, we model an upper bound of the indirect rebound. Future work should also consider the increase in consumer welfare possible through the rebound effect.     

The effects of the GSTP on trade flow: mission accomplished?

This paper investigates whether the Global System of Trade Preferences among developing countries (GSTP) achieves its intent to increase the trade of capital goods between member countries. For this purpose, trade data disaggregated by the degree of commodity differentiation and various GSTP regional dummies are employed in a gravity equation. Estimation results say that the value of trade between GSTP member countries has increased significantly since the formation of the GSTP in 1989, and the trade of differentiated commodities has increased remarkably compared with other commodities. Therefore, it can be asserted that the mission of the GSTP has been accomplished successfully.     

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balances of Asian countries?

Recently the linear ARDL approach was modified and a non-linear version of the same approach that is used mostly to assess asymmetric effects of some exogenous variables on the dependent variable was introduced. The non-linear model was recently used by one study to show that indeed exchange rate changes have asymmetric effects on the trade balance of a few advanced countries. The same was demonstrated for transition economies by another study. In this article, we provide additional asymmetric effects from seven Asian economies by showing that in most cases we find evidence of short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance. Like other studies, our findings are country specific.     

Exchange rate variability and trade: why is it so difficult to find any empirical relationship?

This paper discusses why previous literature has found little evidence of any effect of exchange rate variability on international trade. Methodological and statistical issues are discussed. In particular, comparisons are made of estimations based on different specifications or using different data sets and changes in the results depending on the method used are shown.     

Enlarging the EMU to the east: what effects on trade?

The purpose of this article is to assess the implications of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) accession of eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) on their share of EMU-12 imports. Overcoming biases related to endogeneity, omitted variables and sample selection, our results indicate that the common currency has boosted intra-EMU imports by 7%. Under the assumption that the same relationship between the explanatory variables and imports will hold for EMU-CEEC trade, we intend to predict the future impact of the Euro. Our findings suggest that except for the least integrated countries, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, all CEECs can expect increases in the EMU-12 import share.

Simulating economic growth effects on food and nutrition security in Yemen: A new macro–micro modeling approach

This paper presents an innovative approach for estimating changes in a country's food and nutrition security subject to economic growth and related income distribution over time. Specifically, we combine a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with household- and individual-level regression models and apply this macro–micro approach to assess the effects of Yemen's crisis-induced economic recession in 2011/12, together with two alternative transition scenarios from 2013 to 2020. Our results strongly suggest that not only more rapid, but also broader based economic growth will be needed for a quick return to pre-crisis food and nutrition security levels in Yemen. In addition to broader based growth that benefits the poor, targeted measures for improving nutrition such as integrated childcare programs and awareness campaigns related to family planning, female education, and qat consumption are needed.     

Bilateral capital flows and the exchange rate: The case of the U.S.A. vis-à-vis Canada,France, West Germany and the U.K.

After a preliminary test (with generally negative results) of the interest parity assumption, an eclectic portfolio adjustment approach, which determines an exchange pressures variable (under a régime of a managed float) is constructed, for bilateral comparisons between the United States and its major trading partners taken individually. This approach to bilateral capital flows and managed exchange rate determination appears to function reasonably well, as judged by the empirical results. Interestingly, factors specific to individual exchange markets appear to play important roles in explaining bilateral capital flows and cross exchange rates, which would not occur in a Walrasian world, with global market clearing.