从套利率、交易成本和贸易中断看中国粮食市场的发育

中国粮食市场是经济转型期市场发展的典型代表。本文利用1988－1995年间秒省每旬的粮食价格数据资料，估计各时期地区间粮食今晚的等界模型，验证了经济转型时期市场发育的多样性特点。作者估计了每一时期的套利率、交易成本和自给自足率。结果表明，贸易壁垒单因素无法解释中国市场发展的进程和发育程度；基础设施瓶颈、运行机制、生产专业化政策等也是影响市场发育的重要因素；政策制定者应该关注市场基础设施建设中的瓶颈问题并减少对地区间市场贸易的直接行政干预。     

Spatial Market Arbitrage and Threshold Cointegration

Goodwin and Piggott reported that corn and soybean prices in spatially separated markets in North Carolina exhibited threshold cointegration and that commodity prices in different markets may persistently diverge. Here, a multivariate approach is used to test for threshold cointegration and nonlinear cointegration. The results suggest that departures from the law of one price do not persist indefinitely.     

Modeling Farm Households' Price Responses in the Presence of Transaction Costs and Heterogeneity in Labor Markets

We develop a farm household model to analyze price responses of farm households. This model incorporates various types of transaction costs as well as labor heterogeneity. Nonproportional variable transaction costs or labor heterogeneity imply that production and consumption decisions become nonseparable, even when the household buys or sells labor. An empirical model is estimated using data from Midwest Poland. The results show that nonproportional variable transaction costs and labor heterogeneity significantly influence household behavior. Not all price elasticities, however, change significantly if these are neglected.     

Transaction Cost Thresholds in International Rice Markets

Recent episodes of high and volatile prices for grains such as rice have raised concerns about their implications for hunger and poverty. We model price relationships between international rice prices and 221 domestic prices in 47 developing countries that import rice. We use a threshold vector error correction model that accounts for transaction costs of trade in spatial price transmission, and an improved regularised Bayesian threshold estimator for threshold models. Our results show that threshold values are higher after 2008 than before, which suggests that transaction costs in international rice trade have increased in recent years. Threshold values are highest for Latin American countries followed by African and Asian countries, and higher for retail than for wholesale prices. Since 2008, price transmission is slower in countries that responded to high and volatile prices with domestic market‐based interventions such as price controls and faster in countries that responded by lowering tariffs and by implementing production support measures.     

林业产权制度与交易费用

从林业资源的多效用性、生长周期与经营风险、稀缺性、外部性四个方面分析林业资源的特征。引入产权制度与交易费用理论,论述林业产权制度的重要作用。运用新制度经济学的交易费用理论和产权学理论对个人林业产权、国有林业产权和集体林业产权三种林业产权形式进行解析。在分析林业产权制度安排的费用与效率问题的基础上,指出中国目前还处于经济发展转轨时期,林业产权制度的安排首先要服从于国家的战略需要,中国林业产权的改革也是一个渐进的过程,随着中国市场经济的逐渐成熟,林业产权制度将会不断完善。     

Farmland Prices in the Presence of Transaction Costs: A Cautionary Note

Explicit consideration of transaction costs is highly relevant for modeling farmland price behavior in a realistic manner. Unfortunately, there are numerous theoretical and empirical difficulties associated with doing so. From a research standpoint, such difficulties greatly increase the likelihood of mistakes in the theoretical derivations and/or in the design and application of empirical methods, thereby undermining the validity of the ensuing findings. This article highlights these issues by discussing the theoretical and empirical pitfalls of two seminal recent articles analyzing farmland prices in the presence of transaction costs.     

Transaction Costs and Cattle Marketing: The Information Content of Seller-Provided Presale Data at Bull Auctions

At sales of breeding bulls, prospective buyers have strong incentives to undertake presale measurement activities. To reduce these transaction costs, sellers often provide information on sale bulls. We examine the information content of two measures of the expected performance of the bulls and find that within a given herd, older, simpler measures of performance contain more information about prices (from buyers' perspectives) than newer, more sophisticated measures known as expected progeny differences, or EPDs. We also find, however, that buyers appear to pay considerable attention to annual changes in herd-average EPD values when comparing animals from different sellers.     

土地入股合作社:交易成本、价值攫取与绩效增长——以吉林省F县双胜村为例

研究目的:分析土地入股合作社从自愿组合到合作瓦解,再到村集体组织主导的合作社的强制性演化的内在机制,揭示合作社价值攫取及绩效增长的规律性问题。研究方法:博弈分析法、个案分析法和归纳总结法。研究结果:(1)合作社公共物品供给不足导致自愿合作瓦解,村集体组织为获得攫取土地价值的机会进而推行合作社的强制性演化;(2)当土地发展性价值尚未凸显时,农户愿意放弃土地发展性价值而获取农业绩效增长;(3)当土地发展性价值超过绩效增长量时,合作社强制性演化将瓦解。研究结论:(1)村集体组织与农户的价值攫取关系,即农户获取的绩效增长能够弥补其放弃的土地发展性价值是强制性演化的前提条件;(2)强制性演化一旦瓦解,村集体组织与农户会围绕土地发展性价值展开争夺,产生高昂的谈判成本,因此,需尽快界定土地剩余产权。     

基于威廉姆森分析范式的农村集体建设用地市场交易费用研究——南海区1872份市场交易数据和372份调研数据供给侧分析

研究目的:应用1872份市场交易数据和372份调研数据,对南海区农村集体建设用地市场交易费用及影响因素进行实证分析。研究方法:Tobit模型。研究结果:从1872份市场交易数据归纳出市场特征:市场交易形式存在明显的偏向性,"以租代让"现状普遍存在;土地细碎化程度较强;契约期限大部分都在5年以下,交易周期较短,交易频率较高。根据372份调研数据对市场交易费用的研究结果表明,集体经济组织自组织化是市场有效交易的重要制度变迁;政府干预代表市场化程度,市场化程度越高,交易费用相对较低;交易双方信息越对称、信息透明度越高、市场越规范,市场的不确定性越低,集体经济组织将面临的市场风险越低,其交易费用将越低。研究结论:为了提高集体建设用地市场发展的有效性,交易标的产权清晰是前提,交易公开化、透明化,减少政府在市场交易过程中干预,降低交易的不确定性。     

Food Grain Policies in India and their Implications for Stocks and Fiscal Costs: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Analysis

We analyse current and possible future reforms of the Indian food policies for the most important staple grains, wheat and rice, within a two‐commodity dynamic partial equilibrium model with stochastic shocks. The model is empirically grounded and reproduces past values well. It uses a new reduced‐form approach to capture private storage dynamics. We evaluate the implementation of the National Food Security Act (NFSA) under several policy measures with the current regime as well as two scenarios with a regime change – implementation of cash transfers and deficiency payments. Implications for market fundamentals and fiscal costs are simulated in the medium term – until 2020/21. The NFSA puts a high pressure on fiscal costs and public stocks. Relying on imports with low support prices results in low fiscal costs and stable, but higher domestic and international prices, and a high risk of zero stocks. A policy strategy to manipulate procurement prices in order to maintain public stocks close to the norms leads to slightly higher fiscal costs with lower, but more volatile prices. The highest domestic price volatility occurs under a strategy which uses export bans in order to maintain sufficient public stocks. A cash‐based regime can bring considerable savings and curb fiscal costs, particularly if targeted to the poor, and would leave sufficient stocks due to higher private stocks.     

An Organisational Discussion of Incomplete Contracting and Transaction Costs in Conservation Contracts

Conservation in the agricultural sector is difficult to achieve. A primary complicating factor in achieving conservation is the large number of public good environmental services provided by large numbers of individuals acting under diverse economic and ecological conditions. The complexity of the problem implies that additional consideration must be given to transaction cost economics and the theory of incomplete contracting. Drawing on insights from organisational economics, this paper argues that conservation policy and research could be improved with explicit consideration of the effects of ‘holdup problems’, transaction costs and trust on the provision of conservation services. ‘Bottom‐up’ approaches are promising as they directly incorporate these organisational issues, and the paper concludes with an example of a ‘bottom‐up’ conservation programme, the Ontario Environmental Farm Planning programme.     

村集体参与对农地规模经营模式形成与运行的 交易费用影响 ——基于案例比较分析

研究目的：基于江苏金湖、太仓和上海松江的案例,考察不同模式中村集体参与对农地规模经营形成与运行中交易费用的影响。研究方法：理论研究法、案例对比分析法。研究结果：（1）在农地规模经营的形成中,由于缔约频率与主体的差异,“农户+规模经营主体”模式的协调费用要略高于“农户+村集体+规模经营主体”和“农户+村集体”模式。（2）在农地规模经营的运行中,由于村集体对农地剩余控制权的掌握程度不同,“农户+规模经营主体” “农户+村集体+规模经营主体” “农户+村集体”三种模式的农户和规模经营主体履约风险依次降低,但是“农户+村集体+规模经营主体”和“农户+村集体”两种模式中的村集体存在侵占其他主体权益的风险。研究结论：村集体参与能够在不同程度上减少农地规模经营模式形成和运行的交易费用,但同时可能会增加不同经营模式运行中侵占其他主体权益的风险。建议引导与鼓励村集体参与到农地规模经营中,并强化农地规模经营风险的监管和防范,因地制宜地推广不同农地规模经营模式经验。     

The Political Economy of Contract Farming in China's Agrarian Transition

How does rural China's political economy determine the motivations and constraints that drive small farmers and agribusiness companies into contract farming and shape its practice and impact? This paper identifies three distinctive features of contract farming in China – varied impact on rural inequality, unstable contractual relations and lack of competitiveness with other alternatives – and proposes tentative explanations linked to three features in rural China's political economy: strong collective institutions, active state support for agriculture and strong domestic markets. The recent turn in China's agrarian transition towards vertical integration of agriculture with industries is, however, undermining these conditions and may move China towards more convergence with other countries. Studying contract farming in China's unique political economy context shows not only how variations in the political economy can alter its practice and impact, but also how it needs to be evaluated in comparison with competing alternatives.     

民国时期华北灾荒与天津粮食市场(1912-1936年)

民国时期，华北地区水旱虫灾频发，其直接后果就是粮食减产或绝收，致使粮食价格上涨，影响到天津城市的粮食供应。为了维持稳定的粮食市场，灾荒期间，政府委托商会组织粮商持照调运粮食，期间发生的运输问题、各地留难问题均由商会负责协调，商会在粮食调运中发挥了不可替代的作用。同时，政府从税厘和运费方面优惠商人，以便于粮食调剂。天津粮食市场整合的绩效显著，一方面平抑了粮价，稳定了市场和社会秩序；另一方面，政府和商人合作，各自实现了利益的最大化，达到了双赢，可以说是官商合作的成功范例。     

国际粮食形势及我国粮食生产潜在危机与对策

近几年世界谷物需求不断扩大,谷物库存不断减少,国际谷物价格快速上涨,粮食价格危机在全球快速蔓延。粮食出口国纷纷出台控制粮食出口政策,粮食进口国纷纷到国际市场抢购粮食。一些经济较贫困的国家因无力在国际市场抢购粮食,或无力通过财政补贴抑制国内粮食价格的快速上涨,而诱发社会动荡。尽管我国因有较充足的粮食库存,受国际粮食危机的冲击不大,但我国粮食安全仍存在潜在危机,还需采取强化耕地资源保护、水利设施和依靠科技等措施,确保我国粮食生产稳定发展和基本自给。     

Market facilities and agricultural marketing: evidence from Tamil Nadu,India

This article analyzes the effect of facilities and infrastructure available at the marketplace on a farmer's decision to sell at the market. The econometric estimation shows that the likelihood of sales at the market increases significantly with an improvement in market facilities and a decrease in travel time from the village to the market. The results suggest that wealth reduces a farmer's cost of accessing market facilities more than it increases her/his opportunity cost of leisure. The policy simulation indicates that the marginal benefits from an improvement in market facility will favor the poorer farmers in the context of India.     

Mobile Phones and Radios: Effects on Transactions Costs and Market Participation for Households in Northern Ghana

The literature on agricultural markets suggests that transactions costs are the main obstacles preventing households from participating in agricultural markets. We examine the impact of the recent massive penetration of information communication technologies (ICTs), particularly mobile phones and radios, in developing countries to investigate the role of information in economic transactions and participation in food crop markets. To fully capture market participation behaviours, the current theoretical framework on market participation and transactions costs is extended to include those households that sell and buy in the same time period. We correct for endogeneity and selectivity throughout our models. We used a novel dataset of 393 households in northern Ghana with detailed information on market transactions and ICTs usage. Results show that receiving market information via mobile phones has a positive and significant impact on market participation, with a greater impact for households with a surplus of food crops. We find that radios have a larger impact on the quantity traded. This may reflect the nature of mobile phones in reducing searching costs, whereas radios provide an updated and regular flow of information which affects the pattern of crops consumed and sold. We also emphasise that the most significant factor is how ICTs are used, rather than their ownership.     

Rural Development Programmes and Transaction Effects: Reflections on Maltese and English Experience

New institutional economics, and transaction effects in particular, are highly relevant to public policy performance. The evolution of EU rural development policy has generated both increasing complexity and increased transaction costs. However, this policy evolution also creates opportunities for improvement of policy process management. The paper considers these opportunities in the case of Rural Development Programmes (RDPs) under Pillar 2 of the CAP. We examine the influence of transaction effects on RDP performance, based on direct experience of RDP review and planning in England and Malta, where qualitative evidence of ‘transaction benefits’ is identified. Benefits occur when exchange processes are designed in ways that generate positive returns beyond the immediate transaction, which can outweigh short‐term costs. We conclude that more attention to these aspects of policy design is warranted in future rural development programming and evaluation.     

Exploring Transition and Change in a Complex Traditional Market: The Case of the Rice Market in Bangladesh

This paper explores the unaddressed question of how the large, complex paddy‐rice market in Bangladesh is able to transform itself and evolve, in the face of changing risks and incentives, into a better‐functioning market system. It notes significant but opposing trends over two decades in different areas, particularly in terms of market structure, trade circuits and exchange relations. Evidence of a sharp decline in tied transactions points to the growing importance of impersonal exchange. The underlying causes of these changes are explored, with particular reference to microfinance, remittances, rural roads and mobile telephony.     

Land Market Imperfections and Agricultural Policy Impacts in the New EU Member States: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis

This article analyses how transaction costs and imperfect competition in the land market affect the welfare effects of agricultural subsidies in the new Eastern Member States of the European Union. Benefits of land subsidies end up with landowners in new Eastern Member States also with imperfections in the new Eastern Member States land markets. With unequal access to subsidies, small tenant farmers may even lose out from the subsidies. Decoupling of payments shifts policy rents to farmers, but constrains productivity-enhancing restructuring. Using reserve entitlements to mitigate this effect reduces the intended benefits on distortions and target efficiency.