Structural time series analysis and modelling package: A review

This package performs specialized tasks related to specification, estimation, prediction and diagnostic checking in the context of a particular class of unobserved-components models. It is menu-driven and easy to use. Although the present (first) release suffers from a number of limitations, omissions and bugs, it is nevertheless a useful tool in the hands of a knowledgeable user.     

Semiparametric econometric estimators for a truncated regression model: a review with an extension

Econometric estimators for a truncated regression model are reviewed. For each estimator, the motivations, the key assumptions, the asymptotic distribution and estimates for the asymptotic variance matrix are presented; also a new estimator is suggested. We select five practical estimators among those, and compare them through a Monte Carlo study where the response variable is simulated but the covariates are drawn from a real data set. Some practical and computational issues are addressed as well.     

Econometric modelling on microcomputers: A review of major software packages

In their present state, both in terms of price and power, microcomputers are taking over applied econometics. Now even model simulation is feasible. This paper tries to help the model-builder in determining which of the following modelling software is appropriate to his/her specific needs: AREMOS, ESP, Micro-TSP, MODLER and SORITEC. Tables devoted to data management, estimation, model specification, simulation, and presentation of results, detail the availability of desirable features. Finally, individual short reviews stress the best and worst points of each software.     

A review of integrated QCA and statistical analyses

Systematically combining quantitative and qualitative research approaches offers the potential for a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of social scientific phenomena. With their strong opportunities for building, qualifying, and testing social scientific theories, methodological integrations thus enable researchers to make substantive contributions that would not have been possible with one method alone. In this article we demonstrate how the integration of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and conventional statistical analysis offers researchers new opportunities for contributing to the social sciences. Whereas statistical analysis is variable-oriented and relies on correlational analysis to make comparisons across cases, QCA is based on set theory, is case oriented, and relies on Boolean algebra to make comparisons between cases. Drawing on the literature on the interdependency between theoretical contribution and methodology, we review studies that integrate QCA and statistical analysis to explain how the specific combination of these two approaches allows researchers to strengthen the theoretical contribution of their research. From our review we identify common challenges and provide solutions for integrating QCA and statistical analysis.     

A literature review on business process modelling: new frontiers of reusability

Business process modelling (BPM) has become fundamental for modern enterprises due to the increasing rate of organisational change. As a consequence, business processes need to be continuously (re-)designed as well as subsequently aligned with the corresponding enterprise information systems. One major problem associated with the design of business processes is reusability. Reuse of business process models has the potential of increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of BPM. This article critically surveys the existing literature on the problem of BPM reusability and more specifically on that State-of-the-Art research that can provide or suggest the ‘elements’ required for the development of a methodology aimed at discovering reusable conceptual artefacts in the form of patterns. The article initially clarifies the definitions of business process and business process model; then, it sets out to explore the previous research conducted in areas that have an impact on reusability in BPM. The article concludes by distilling directions for future research towards the development of apatterns-based approach to BPM; an approach that brings together the contributions made by the research community in the areas of process mining and discovery, declarative approaches and ontologies.     

The demand for retailer-financed instalment credit: An econometric analysis

During the mid- to late 1980s the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer has attempted to reduce the volume of consumer credit extended by increasing interest rates rather than by re-introducing terms controls. This paper presents estimates of demand functions for new credit extended by retailers which was financed by them and repaid by instalments. Following earlier papers, a stock-adjustment model is presented that is extended to allow for credit rationing. The results suggest that the demand for such new credit extended is related negatively to terms control and positively to personal disposable income and expectations. Demand was not found to be related to (a proxy for) the nominal interest rate charged by retailers (although it was found to be positively related to the real rate). The former finding is consistent with questionnaire evidence that consumers are unaware of the interest rate that they pay for credit. Elasticities of demand are presented.     

Testing unstable econometric models for stability: An empirical study

Econometric models may be tested for stability using the asymptotic distribution of the dominant characteristic root of the system as derived by Theil and Boot (1962) or by Oberhofer and Kmenta (1973). This paper points out that this distribution is known for stable models only which implies that the null hypothesis must always be stability and the power of the test is in question. A Monte Carlo study is performed to investigate the power of the test and the distribution of the test statistic for unstable and stable models in the small sample case.     

Residential energy demand in the United States: A regional econometric analysis

A static equilibrium and a dynamic partial adjustment model of residential demand for electricity and natural gas are presented and estimated for the United States over a recent period characterized by sharply increasing energy prices. The static model is estimated using Ordinary Least Squares while the instrumental variables method is used for the dynamic partial adjustment model. The estimates of long-run elasticities suggest the residential demand for electricity and natural gas are price and income elastic. Intercept and slope dummies used in the models identify significant regional differences in demand functions.     

Property taxation and the demand for housing: An econometric analysis

There is disagreement among economists regarding the effect of a local increase in property taxation on the housing market. In defining the price of housing services studies of the demand for housing have treated the property tax exclusively as an excise tax on housing consumption. Two recent theoretical developments suggest this is a misrepresentation of the tax. One theory holds that the excise effects of property taxation may be shifted backward to the factors employed in the production of housing. The other theory concludes that the property tax is not an excise, but rather serves as an efficient price for local public services. To investigate these hypotheses, data from the Annual Housing Survey were employed to estimate a housing demand model which included the net effective property tax rate among the set of independent variables. In addition to revealing the property tax-housing demand relationship, the model provides more reliable estimates of income and price elasticities by eliminating specification errors found in previous studies. Results indicate that the property tax reduces the housing consumption of central city homeowners, but does not distort the suburban housing market.     

A dynamic econometric model of agricultural wage determination in Bangladesh

Economists applied data from 1949-1950 and 1980-1981 to a new dynamic model to examine the dynamics of determinants of agricultural wages in Bangladesh, particularly the effect of changes in relative prices of rice (the staple food) and productivity. Just a 20% rise in the price or rice was passed on in the agricultural wage rate within the current year. About 50% was passed on in the long run, however. Therefore an increase in the price of rice reduced the rice purchasing power of agricultural wages in the short and long term. In fact, the importance given to rice in the long run real wage rate was almost the same as the mean proportion of expenditure that an agricultural laborer in Bangladesh committed to rice and closely related food staples. Thus arise in the price of rice in comparison to other goods had limited effects on the long run real wage in terms of the bundle of goods typically consumed, but very adverse effects in the short run placing a high burden on the rural poor. On the other hand, the long run real wage rate fell considerably between the mid 1960s-early 1980s when overall agricultural productivity increased. The economists pointed out that this increased productivity may not have lowered long run real wage rates, but instead mitigating factors may have contributed to this fall. For example, population growth, rising landlessness, and insufficient economic growth in nonagricultural sectors resulted in a consistent growth in the labor supply. In conclusion, this new dynamic model showed that Bangladesh cannot depend only on agricultural growth to reduce the poverty of farmers.     

A conceptual framework for product lifecycle modelling

Product lifecycle modelling is to define and represent product lifecycle data and to maintain data interdependencies. To build a complete, reusable and highly consistent product lifecycle information model, the product lifecycle is divided into five stages: requirement analysis, conceptual design, engineering design, manufacturing, and service and support. Accordingly, five stage product models (requirement analysis model, conceptual design model, engineering design model, manufacturing model, and service and support model) are discussed. To integrate all information of a product lifecycle and support networked manufacturing mode, the key elements of product lifecycle modelling are discussed and a framework of product lifecycle modelling is proposed. Further, the relationship and evolvement of product models at different stages are described. Finally, a Web-based integration framework is proposed to support interoperability of distributed product data sources.