Money as a Potential Anchor for the Price Level: a Critique of the P* Approach

A number of recent articles have attempted to restore the use of a simple measure of the money supply as an indicator of future price levels and to re-establish a causal link from money to prices. Most notably Hallman, Porter and Small (HPS) (1989a), (1989b) originated the approach using US data and Hannah and James(1989) have applied it to the UK The approach broadens the traditional idea of a constant velocity of money by introducing the notion of V* and Q*, the long-run value of velocity and income. These are then used to define P from the traditional quantity theory of money as the long-run equilibrium price level. The analysis then proceeds to estimate a standard Error Correction Model (ECM) for price determination with the levels effect given by (P-P*)t-1. The conclusion drawn is that 'a measure of money that determines the long-run future level of prices is useful in determining the proper monetary policy for attaining price stability. We have shown, through the construction of P*, that M2 can serve as this determinant for the price level' (Hallman, Porter and Small (1982a) p. 23).
We argue in this paper that the P* approach is flawed. It is certainly more complex than traditional monetarist approaches but the fundamental questions of causality are in no way either affected or resolved. The P* analysis is a variant on more conventional cointegration analysis (Engle and Granger (1987), Johansen (1988), Hall (1989)) and we argue that the Johansen framework allows us to address the question in a formal and more complete way. When this approach is applied to the US data used by HPS, we find that while the P* relationship does indeed represent a cointegrating one, it does not have a causal link with prices but rather the causality runs from prices to money - this result conforms well to the work of Hendry and Ericsson (1990) or Hall, Henry and Wilcox (1990), which use this form of relationship to model the demand for money.     

Further examination of the velocity-money growth variability debate: Evidence from Japan using an error-correction model

The claim that volatility of money leads people to increase their demand for money is tested using recently developed cointegration techniques and error-correction modeling. This approach offers an alternative to the standard Granger-causality test for establishing the long-run relation of velocity and money growth variability. In this paper, we employ these procedures on quarterly data from Japan over the 1973:1–1992:1 flexible exchange rate period. Our findings are supportive of the Friedman hypothesis for both the short and long runs. These results are important empirical additions to the new classical theory of economics which suggests that unanticipated movements in the money supply are non-neutral.     

The Instability of the Money Demand Function: An I(2) Interpretation

Some studies have suggested that although money and prices appear to be I(2) processes, real money balances are I(1) and this transformation preserves an important long-run relationship between money and prices. In this paper we present evidence indicating that the success of such a nominal-to-real transformation depends upon the particular monetary aggregate under consideration. It turns out that imposing long-run price homogeneity does not remove all I(2) components from a model of aggregate broad UK M4, but it does prove successful in the case of sectoral components of M4. Since recent research on money demand functions finds more stable relationships between sectoral components of M4 and aggregate demand, our analysis seems to point to a direct link between the existence of I(2) components and the stability of different money demand functions.     

Long-run consequences of debt

Empirical evidence suggests that both public and private debt may have long-run detrimental effects on the economy. However, theoretical works have not provided a unique explanation to the issue. In this paper, therefore, we propose a framework that is able to describe the long-run effects of different kinds of debt. We introduce a stock-flow consistent dynamic model where the economy is represented as a network of trading relationships among agents. Debt contracts are one of such relationships. The model is characterized by a unique and stable steady-state and predicts that: (i) aggregate income is always limited from the above by the money supply; (ii) debts cause in the long-run a redistribution of borrowers’ wealth and income in favor of lenders; (iii) the redistribution is magnified by the level of the interest rate and (iv) by the degree of debt persistence. In the aggregate this may also lower the average marginal propensity to spend and nominal income, providing therefore a clear-cut explanation to the empirical evidence.     

Socio-political instability and growth dynamics

We develop an overlapping generations (OLG) monetary endogenous growth model characterized by socio-political instability, with the latter being specified as a fraction of output lost due to strikes, riots and protests. We show that growth dynamics arise in this model when socio-political instability is a function of inflation. In particular, two distinct growth dynamics emerge, one convergent and the other divergent contingent on the strength of the response of socio-political instability to inflation. Since our theoretical results hinge on socio-political instability being a function of inflation, we test the prediction that inflation affects socio-political instability positively by using a panel of 156 countries for the 1980–2012 period, and allowing for country and time fixed effects. The results indicate that inflation relates positively with socio-political instability. Policy makers should be cognisant that it is crucial to maintain long-run price stability, as failure to do so may result in high inflation emanating from excessive money supply growth, leading to high (er) socio-political instability, and ultimately, the economy being on a divergent balanced growth path.     

Estimating the demand for money in Canada: Does including an own rate of return matter?

Traditional studies estimating the long-run demand for real money in Canada assume that narrow money, or M1, bears zero interest. However if implicit interest has been paid, such interest should be taken into account in determining the opportunity cost of holding money. Using quarterly data over the period 1961:1–2000:3 we construct and employ a competitive own rate of return variable. Over 1961:1–1982:1, the conventional money demand model which omits an own rate of return performs well. Over the period 1982:2–2000:3, where the degree of competition in the banking industry increased, the conventional money demand model does not perform well, whereas inclusion of the own rate of return yields correct parameter estimates.     

Oil exports and the Iranian economy

This paper presents an error-correcting macroeconometric model for the Iranian economy estimated using a new quarterly data set over the period 1979Q1–2006Q4. It builds on a recent paper by the authors, Esfahani, Mohaddes, and Pesaran (in press), which develops a theoretical long-run growth model for major oil exporting economies. The core variables included in this paper are real output, real money balances, inflation, exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, although the role of investment and consumption are also analysed in a sub-model. The paper finds clear evidence for the existence of two long-run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. The results show that real output in the long run is influenced by oil exports and foreign output. However, it is also found that inflation has a significant negative long-run effect on real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies and is matched by a negative association between inflation and the investment–output ratio. Finally, the results of impulse responses show that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran's financial markets.     

Adaptive learning and monetary exchange

This paper investigates three classic questions in monetary theory: How can an intrinsically worthless asset, such as fiat money, maintain value as a medium of exchange? What are the short-run and long-run effects of a change in the money supply? What is the social cost of inflation? I answer these questions using a microfounded model of monetary exchange that replaces the rational expectations assumption with an adaptive learning rule. First, I show that monetary exchange is a robust arrangement in the sense that agents are able to learn the stationary monetary equilibrium while the non-monetary equilibrium is unstable under learning. Second, an unanticipated monetary injection has real effects in the short-run because learning the value of money takes time. In the long run, agents successfully learn the value of money, hence money is neutral. Third, under a constant money growth policy, an increase in the growth rate of money increases output in the short-run producing a short-run Phillips curve. A ten percent increase in the money growth rate has a social cost of 0.41 percent of output per year. Alternatively, a ten percent decrease in the money growth rate has a social benefit of 0.37 percent of output per year.     

Impact of financial development on SAARC’S human development

The objective of the study is to investigate the link between economic growth and financial development (i.e., broad money supply, credit to private sector (CPS) and bank deposit liabilities) in human development for a panel of selected South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries; namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka during 1988–2008; over the period of 1988–2008. The panel cointegration technique is employed for analysis of short and long-run relationship between the variables. The results of panel cointegration found that there is a long-run relationship between financial development indicators and economic growth in human development in SAARC region. The estimated results indicate that in the short run, bank deposit liabilities exerts the maximum impact (i.e., 0.425 %) on human development in SAARC region, subsequently, broad money supply (i.e., 0.301 %) and CPS (i.e., 0.128 %) respectively, while there is a negative relationship between real GDP growth and human capital (i.e., \(-\) 0.189 %). In the long-run, DOLS estimator constitutes broad money supply which increases by 0.912 %, followed by credit to private sector (i.e., 0.121 %) on human development. While, in case of FMOLS estimator, these results are disappear, as broad money supply does not have any significant impact on human development in SAARC region. The coefficient of real GDP per capita in both estimators, have a negative impact on human development, however, the intensity of both estimators are different in nature, as real GDP per capita decrease human development in FMOLS (i.e., \(-\) 0.828 %) and in DOLS estimators (i.e., 0.458 %). The results indicate that due to a low quality of human capital in SAARC region; the direct effect of economic growth becomes negative; however, financial development indicators act as an important driver for increase in human capital in SAARC region. The implications of present research relate to heightening the need for labor market reforms and making the educational system more flexible.     

Dividend growth, stock valuation, and long-run risk

In this paper, we integrate the long-run concept of risk into the stock valuation process. We use the intertemporal consumption capital asset pricing model to demonstrate that a stock’s long-run dividend growth is negatively related to its current dividend-price ratio and positively related to its long-run covariance between dividends and consumption. Then, we show that the equilibrium price of a stock is determined by its current dividend, long-run dividend growth, and long-run risk. In all, our work suggests that risk cumulated over many periods represents an important parameter in assessing the theoretical value of a firm.     

The stability of money demand in China: Evidence from the ARDL model

This study examines the demand for broad money (M2) in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework. The results based on the bounds testing procedure confirm that a stable, long-run relationship exists between M2 and its determinants: real income, inflation, foreign interest rates and stock prices. Importantly, our results reveal that stock prices have a significant wealth effect on long- and short-run broad money demand; its omission can lead to serious misspecifications in the money demand function (MDF). This finding is consistent with the notion that asset inflation (deflation) has systematic influence on the pattern of monetary aggregates.     

A time series analysis of real wages,consumption and asset returns

This paper re-examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption, real wages, and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model. Previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption. We show that an optimal contract model restricts the long-run relation of the real wage rate and consumption. We exploit this long-run restriction (cointegration restriction) for estimating and testing the model, using Ogaki and Park's (1989) cointegration approach. This long-run restriction involves a parameter that we call the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for non-durable consumption but does not involve the IES for leisure. This allows us to estimate the long-run IES for non-durable consumption from a cointegrating regression. Tests for the null of cointegration do not reject our model. As a further analysis, our estimates of the long-run IES for non-durable consumption are used to estimate the discount factor and a coefficient of time-nonseparability using Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments. We form a specification test for our model à la Hausman (1978) from these two steps. This specification test does not reject our model. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

人民币汇率调整与内外失衡的影响机理分析

本文运用协整分析建立误差修正模型,重点分析了我国经济内外均衡与人民币汇率调整机制之间的关系。研究表明:我国经济内外部均衡变量与人民币实际有效汇率之间存在着协整关系,短期内,对人民币实际有效汇率产生影响的主要是贸易顺差、货币供给量和经济增长因素。长期来看,决定长期汇率均衡走势的是实体因素(外汇储备、经济增长和货币供应量)。价格因素(通货膨胀率和利率)在短期内可能对汇率影响较大,但长期内不再重要。     

Modelling money demand in Germany

In this paper an empirically stable money demand model for M3 in Germany is presented. The sample period 1975–94 includes German unification. It is shown that this development has not substantially destabilized money demand. Parameter stability is extensively tested and not rejected. Applying encompassing tests, this model encompasses two recent models but is not encompassed by them. Exogeneity of the explanatory variables is discussed and tested along the definitions given in Engle, Hendry and Richard (1983). There is evidence that inflation and long-term interest rates are super-exogenous with respect to the parameters of the demand for M3 model. This result and the empirical long-run money demand function presented in this paper may affect the applicability of the so called ‘P-Star concept’ for German M3. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

通货膨胀传导机制研究——基于货币供给和经济增长的视角

通货膨胀管理是宏观经济的重要内容,通货膨胀、货币供给和经济增长之间互相影响、互相制约。本文利用中国2005年1月～2010年3月度数据构建模型分析,得出结论:(1)短期影响消费者物价指数的因素主要是国内生产总值增长率,长期控制消费者物价指数上涨的要素主要是货币的供给;(2)宏观经济形势稳定条件下通货膨胀、货币供给和经济增长之间具有长期协整关系;(3)消费者物价指数对自身的波动具有较强的累积效果,经济增长贡献了消费者物价指数波动的55%,而广义货币的这一比例仅为18%;(4)中国货币收入的真实需求弹性为1.152,这一数据远高于发达国家的水平。文章最后给出了相应的政策性建议。     

货币供应量对价格体系的传导效应分析

货币作为中间目标变量存在于经济生活中的任何一部分。国民经济的健康运转离不开货币,而货币政策作为重要工具在宏观经济调控中起着举足轻重的作用。本文选用2004年1月-2014年3月货币供应量与价格指数的季度时间序列数据,通过非线性平滑转换模型,实证研究了货币供应量与价格体系之间的动态关系,得出我国货币供应量对价格体系具有较强的传导效应。在基于以上研究结果的基础上对我国货币政策提出了相关的政策建议。     

Openness and the speed of adjustment in the money market

In an effort to fight inflation or recession, central banks manipulate the money supply. The speed with which a change in money supply could affect price level and the level of production differs from one country to another, depending on rigidities. The main purpose of this paper is to show that the adjustment speed among the mentioned macro variables is higher in countries that are more open. Using the bounds-testing approach, a relatively new approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling, we estimate the speed of adjustment in the money market in 28 developing countries. A simple cross-sectional model is utilized in which the measure of adjustment speed is related to three different measures of openness. Regardless of the measure used, a significant and positive relationship exists between adjustment speed and the measure of openness.     

Does Private Money Buy Public Policy? Campaign Contributions and Regulatory Outcomes in Telecommunications

To what extent can market participants affect the outcomes of regulatory policy? In this paper, we study the effects of one potential source of influence—campaign contributions—from competing interests in the local telecommunications industry, on regulatory policy decisions of state public utility commissions. Our work is unique in that we test the effects of campaign contributions on measurable policy outcomes. This stands in stark relief against most of the existing literature, which examines potentially noisier measures of policy outcomes—such as the roll‐call votes of legislators, to examine how private money may influence public policy. By moving to more direct measures of policy effects, and using a unique new dataset, we find, in contrast to much of the literature on campaign contributions, that there is a significant effect of private money on regulatory outcomes. This result is robust to numerous alternative model specifications. We also assess the extent of omitted variable bias that would have to exist to obviate the estimated result. We find that for our result to be spurious, omitted variables would have to explain more than five times the variation in the mix of private money as is explained by the variables included in our analysis. We consider this to be very unlikely.     

Optimal interest rate stabilization in a basic sticky-price model

This paper studies optimal monetary policy with the nominal interest rate as the single policy instrument. Firms set prices in a staggered way without indexation and real money balances contribute separately to households’ utility. The optimal deterministic steady state under commitment is the Friedman rule—even if the importance assigned to the utility of money is small relative to consumption and leisure. We approximate the model around the optimal steady state as the long-run policy target. Optimal monetary policy is characterized by stabilization of the nominal interest rate instead of inflation stabilization as the predominant principle.     

Biased Bayesian learning with an application to the risk-free rate puzzle

Based on the axiomatic framework of Choquet decision theory, we develop a closed-form model of Bayesian learning with ambiguous beliefs about the mean of a normal distribution. In contrast to rational models of Bayesian learning the resulting Choquet Bayesian estimator results in a long-run bias that reflects the agent's ambiguity attitudes. By calibrating the standard equilibrium conditions of the consumption based asset pricing model we illustrate that our approach contributes towards a resolution of the risk-free rate puzzle. For a plausible parameterization we obtain a risk-free rate in the range of 3.5–5%. This is 1–2.5% closer to the empirical risk-free rate than according calibrations of the rational expectations model.