LABOR SUPPLY FACTORS AND ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

We propose a new Vector Autoregressive identification scheme that enables us to disentangle labor supply shocks from wage bargaining shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate to the two shocks. According to our analysis on United States data over the period 1985–2014, labor supply shocks and wage bargaining shocks are important drivers of output and unemployment both in the short run and in the long run. These results suggest that identification strategies used in estimated new Keynesian models to disentangle labor market shocks may be misguided.     

中国农村老人的劳动供给研究

本文利用2000年农户抽样调查数据,测算了中国农村50岁及以上人口的劳动参与率并分析了影响农村老年劳动力劳动供给的因素。研究发现,农村老人的劳动参与率较高;影响老人是否工作的因素主要是年龄、健康状况、所承担的责任、性别、居住方式和土地等家庭因素,与经济因素关系不大。分析结果表明,随着农村家庭的核心化和青壮年劳动力向城镇流迁,农村传统的家庭养老模式正面临冲击,必须在农村建立社会养老保障机制。     

中国FDI地点选择的因素分析

在中国改革开放的20年中,政策优惠、产业结构、开放水平和市场化程度都对 FDI 的地区选择发挥了很大的作用,而各个因素的作用是随中国经济结构的变化而变化的。优惠政策一直是吸引外资的最主要因素;而外商对产业结构的重视程度经历了一个由弱到强的过程;1992年以后,开放水平对外资的吸引力作用有所下降,相反,市场化程度对外资的吸引作用却有所增强,这些因素在地区间的差距是造成外资地区分布不平衡的重要原因。     

人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响

本文描述了我国劳动力供给的总体数量以及变化趋势,并从劳动参与率、城乡结构、人力资本三方面进行考察,探讨人口老龄化对于劳动力供给的影响。我国劳动参与率还存在较大增长空间,将会是未来劳动力供给的重要增长点;农村剩余劳动力存量仍看似充足,但其老龄化情况较严重,难以维持当前农民工向城市转移的速度;另外我国年轻劳动力的教育程度和人力资本已有显著提升。因此虽然人口老龄化已经对我国劳动力供给产生了一定负面影响,但由于人口和劳动力的变化是一个长期过程,并不会给经济发展带来突发的、灾难性的冲击。     

THE EFFECTS OF THE 1978 PREGNANCY DISCRIMINATION ACT ON FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY*

This article analyzes the effects of the 1978 Pregnancy Discrimination Act (PDA) on the labor force participation rates of married women by estimating a dynamic model of labor force participation. Results show that the PDA increased the labor force participation rate of pregnant women by 8.2 percentage points, of women with a child less than one year old by 3.4 percentage points, and of women with older children by 1.5 percentage points. Counterfactual policy simulations show that the provision of unpaid leave will increase the labor force participation rate of women with older children by an additional 3.7 percentage points.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE 1.03 MILLION YEN CEILING IN A DYNAMIC LABOR SUPPLY MODEL

In this paper I examine the effects of a means-tested transfer system in Japan ("1.03 million yen ceiling") in a dynamic labor supply model with endogenous retirement. In Japan, married women have reason to limit their annual earnings to no more than 1.03 million yen in order to receive a number of benefits available to low-income wives, and in fact often choose to do so. In a dynamic model, the optimal labor supply schedule follows a pattern that is not seen in a static framework, which I call the "spillover effect." The paper also examines the properties of dynamic welfare cost of this ceiling. ( JEL J22, H24, H55)     

WAGE VOLATILITY AND CHANGING PATTERNS OF LABOR SUPPLY

Over the past few decades, the skilled–unskilled hours differential for U.S. men increased when the skill premium rose sharply, in contrast with dominant income effects. Based on PSID data, we show that over the 1967–2000 period, skilled men experienced a three times larger increase in wage volatility than unskilled men. With the rise in wage volatility, our general equilibrium incomplete markets model generates a 2.7 hours increase in the hours differential whereas it increased by 1.4 hours in the data. We find that hours adjustments are important for self‐insurance in the short run, whereas precautionary savings play a crucial role eventually.     

对我国农村劳动力转移影响因素的实证分析

城乡居民的收入差距水平是农村劳动力向城市转移的根本原因,当今大量农民工进城务工的现象,既能提高农民家庭的收入,又能加速城市化的进程,使得农村和城市均得到良性发展。而要实现农村劳动力向城市的合理流动,必须提供为农村剩余劳动力转移的制度保障。     

中国民间投资的区域差异与影响因素

民间投资是全社会投资的重要组成部分,对改革开放以来中国经济的持续发展起了重要作用,但民间投资区域差异问题却未引起足够重视。对此,文章运用1992—2004年的相关数据资料,通过建立计量经济模型,借助回归分析,从传统因素、集聚因素、干预因素三方面探讨了中国民间投资区域差异的成因及其变化,结果表明,民间投资主要分布在东部沿海地区和京广铁路沿线省区,近几年来呈现出由南向北及沿长江和陇海兰新线由东部向中西部扩散的趋势。     

MEDICAID AND THE LABOR SUPPLY OF SINGLE MOTHERS: IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH CARE REFORM

The Medicaid expansions and health insurance subsidies of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) change work incentives for single mothers. To evaluate the employment effects of these policies ex ante, I estimate a model of labor supply and health insurance choice exploiting variation in pre‐ACA Medicaid policies. Simulations show that single mothers increase their labor supply at the extensive and intensive margin by 12% and 7%, respectively, uninsurance rates decline by up to 40%, and an average family's welfare improves by 1,600 dollars per year. Health insurance subsidies and not Medicaid expansions mostly drive these effects.     

HOW ENDAs EXTEND THE WORKWEEK: LEGAL PROTECTION AND THE LABOR SUPPLY OF BEHAVIORALLY GAY MEN

Employment Nondiscrimination Acts (ENDAs) have received much political attention in the recent past. Despite the political attention, very little research has investigated the impact of ENDAs. I analyze the impact of ENDAs on labor supplies, which is under‐researched in the policy analysis literature. My work is the first to investigate the labor supply patterns of behaviorally gay men using data that are representative of the entire behaviorally gay population. I show that ENDAs motivate behaviorally gay men to work roughly 15–20 h more per week and increase the probability that behaviorally gay men will supply any labor by approximately 7%. These results suggest that ENDAs increase the labor supply of behaviorally gay workers by increasing workplace tolerance of homosexuality. (JEL J2, J7, J1)     

家庭劳动供给的影响因素研究： 文献综述视角

随着招工难、用工短缺问题的持续蔓延,从微观角度特别是家庭角度来剖析劳动供给行为的基本规律,显得愈发重要。本文从家庭劳动供给的决策模式、家庭特征变量与外部环境变量的影响、家庭成员间的交互影响、公共政策的作用等五个维度梳理了国外对家庭劳动供给行为的最新研究成果,这对引导我国家庭劳动供给决策、缓解工业劳动力供求矛盾具有重要的借鉴意义。     

产品内分工视角下服务贸易竞争力的影响因素及其启示

产品内分工影响服务贸易的基本途径是服务外包;基于11个OECD国家投入产出表的数据,实证分析了制造业消耗的生产性服务业中间投入和服务业消耗的生产性服务业中间投入、生产性服务业的劳动力成本和信息与通讯技术发展水平对服务贸易竞争力的影响,并给出了政策启示。     

SOCIAL SECURITY AND LABOR SUPPLY INCENTIVES

Many provisions of the Social Security program distort an individual's labor supply incentives. In particular, the payroll tax, the earnings test, the offsetting actuarial adjustment, and the dependence of the size of future benefits on the level of current earnings all affect the net return to extra work. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the size of the net tax rate on labor income in a variety of circumstances, taking into account all these provisions, as well as the personal income tax. We find that the Social Security Program on net in the past has provided a large subsidy to labor supply, which for many people effectively offset the personal income tax. This subsidy rate, however, has been declining steadily over time     

EXISTENCE OF STATIONARY EQUILIBRIUM IN AN INCOMPLETE-MARKET MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS LABOR SUPPLY

In this article, I first study an income fluctuation problem with endogenous labor supply. Let β be the agent's time discount factor and be the constant gross rate of return on assets. For , I show that the agent's wealth either approaches infinity almost surely or converges to a finite level almost surely. For , I prove the existence, uniqueness, and stability of the stationary distribution of state variables. I then show the existence of the stationary general equilibrium in an incomplete-market model with endogenous labor supply.     

THE VALUE OF VOLUNTEER LABOR AND THE FACTORS INFLUENCING PARTICIPATION: EVIDENCE FOR THE UNITED STATES FROM 2002 THROUGH 2005

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of people who volunteered rose from 59.8 million in 2002 to 65.4 million in 2005. Those volunteering benefit from their activity in various ways; however, these benefits are non-pecuniary and are generally not recognized in the national economic accounts used to measure gross domestic product (GDP). This paper uses data from the 2002–05 Current Population Survey Volunteer Supplements to assign a dollar value to volunteering. Different methodologies yield annual estimates from $116 to $153 billion (in 2005 dollars) over the four years (between 0.9 and 1.3 percent of 2005 GDP). Additionally, characteristics of individuals most likely to volunteer are identified. The volunteer rate varies by demographic characteristics in addition to geographic location, labor force participation, and business sector. Furthermore, the data suggest that volunteering is a "normal good" because participation increases with income even after controlling for observables.