递增阶梯电价的收入再分配效应研究: 嵌入分时电价更有效吗*

本文从理论与实证角度分析了递增阶梯电价为实现收入再分配目的必然伴随着效率损失,进而探讨嵌入分时电价能否改善两难困境。理论模型刻画了递增阶梯电价追求再分配目的所致两类效率成本的特征、结构和类型,以及递增阶梯电价在实现再分配和最小化效率损失间的两难困境。基于杭州市居民用电和家庭收入等微观数据,使用工具变量,通过反事实场景构建和二次近乎理想需求函数（QUAIDS）模型,实证估算了阶梯电价为实现再分配目的而引致的家庭与社会效率成本,本文为系统评估和完善阶梯水价和气价等政策奠定了基础。     

中央转移支付对欠发达地区的财力均等化效应研究

财力均等化是中央转移支付的最基本目标,是落后地区实现公共服务均等化的基础。本文选取了尽量能反映区域特点的13个指标,对我国的省级行政辖区做了发达地区、中等发达地区和欠发达地区的划分,把研究的视角聚焦于欠发达地区。通过变异系数指标对比了中央转移支付对三大区域的财力均等化效应,结论显示,欠发达地区的财力均等化不仅没有得到改善,其间的财力差距反而被不断拉大。欠发达地区受中央转移支付财力均等化效应不显著的原因可能与中央转移支付制度设计的导向不清和欠发达地区畸形依赖专项转移支付有关。     

GROWTH IN THE SHADOWS: EFFECT OF THE SHADOW ECONOMY ON U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH OVER MORE THAN A CENTURY

Taking a long‐term look at U.S. economic growth over 1870–2014, this paper focuses on the spillovers from the shadow or the unofficial economy to growth in the official sector. Shadow activities might spur or retard economic growth depending on their interactions with the formal sector and impacts on the provision of public goods. Nesting the analysis in a standard neoclassical growth model, we use a relatively new time series technique to estimate the short‐run dynamics and long‐run relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Results suggest that prior to World War II (WWII) the shadow economy had a negative effect on economic growth; however, post‐WWII the shadow economy was beneficial for growth. The sanding effect of the shadow economy in the earlier period is especially robust to alternate considerations of possible endogeneity and an alternate set of growth determinants. (JEL E26, O43, O51, K42)     

农户自主发展能力的三商影响研究——以河南省吴沟村为例

通过对河南省吴沟村81家农户依照设定标准所选取的反映不同层次的20家农户的调查,对比分析了具有不同自主发展能力的农户的经济状况及其自身发展情况,探讨了农户自主发展能力和农户三商的度量,以及两者之间的关系.结果显示:在技术、制度、地域基质基本相同的条件下,影响农户发展主要取决于农户自身;农户的智商(IQ)、情商(EQ)、财商(FQ)对农户自主发展能力起着显著作用;但不同程度的农户自主发展能力,三商对其影响有明显差异,即主导商不同.调杳发现:农户都有提高自主发展能力的意识,且在追求农业以外的收入方而有着强烈愿望.在大致相同的环境条件下,提出了不断完善农户自身发展的相关措施,以利于农户自身合理规划,进而推动农村发展.     

循环经济型小城镇建设规划与发展的可持续性评价研究--以江阴市新桥镇为例

根据新桥镇经济社会发展阶段和特点,借鉴联合国可持续发展委员会(UNCSD)可持续发展指标体系等,选择经济发展指标、社会进步指标、生态与人居环境指标、资源及利用指标以及科技与教育指标等等建立小城镇建设与规划的可持续发展评价指标体系和数据库,并建立模型对区域可持续发展能力进行系统评价。结果表明,该镇的综合可持续能力持续上升,但是在资源利用方面呈现出明显的不足。最后针对评价结果,提出了一系列提高可持续发展能力的对策。     

科技进步对区位论发展影响之初探

本文主要从科技进步对区位论发展影响的角度对区位论的发展作了初步探讨与分析，提出科技进步导致产业部门与产业结构的变化是促使区位论发展的主要力量。在现代社会，蓬勃发展的高新技术产业对区位理论的发展又提出了新的挑战，为区位论发展提供了新的历史契机。     

国外港口体系研究述评

随着港口在区域经济和城市发展中的作用越来越大,港口之间的竞争也日趋激烈,港口体系的演化发展受到很多学者的关注,文章对国外从1950年代以来这一领域的大量研究成果进行回顾和评价,以便国内研究者借鉴利用。     

基于绩效视角的中部地区本土制度创新路径

中部地区发展环境、经济实力和竞争力的弱势地位,除国家的区域政策影响或历史原因造成外,区域内部制度安排的相对低效率也是主要诱因之一,在国家强制性制度变迁难以全面惠及中部地区时,实施区域内部有效率的制度创新是实现中部崛起战略突破的基本途径,文章选用制度经济学的观点分析了制度创新的效率问题,指出在中部经济崛起战略的制度创新中,应运用高效的制度去调节和控制中部经济发展中的本土资源、人才和资金等因素合理有序的运行,从而减少制度变迁阻力,提高制度运行效率。     

区域旅游“点—轴系统”演进研究——以陕南为例

"点—轴系统"理论是我国著名经济地理学家陆大道提出的区域空间结构理论。文章认为区域旅游"点—轴"结构系统的形成机理特征具体体现为:吸引物集聚、旅游者集聚、旅游设施集聚、良好的可达性和充盈的客源市场促成旅游节点,具有一定规模旅游客流流动的交通干线是旅游轴线形成的标志。研究发现区域旅游"点—轴"结构系统发展经历"点—轴系统"发育前的均衡、"点、轴"初步发育、"点—轴系统"成长发育和"点—轴系统"成熟发育四个演进阶段。在2000年以前,2000—2002年,2002—2005年,陕南区域旅游"点—轴系统"分别经历了"点—轴系统"发育的前三个阶段,但之后,陕南旅游发展缓慢,至今未迈进旅游"点—轴"结构系统的成熟发育阶段。文章进一步探讨推动陕南旅游"点—轴"结构系统发育成熟的构想。     

THE EFFECT OF WELFARE ASSET RULES ON AUTO OWNERSHIP,EMPLOYMENT, AND WELFARE PARTICIPATION: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS

This paper investigates how asset tests for welfare eligibility affect auto ownership, employment, and welfare participation for single mothers without a college degree. We combine longitudinal data from the 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation with data on state‐level welfare program rules from the Urban Institute and data on state‐level controls to test whether these single mothers were more likely to (1) own a car, (2) be employed, and (3) be off of welfare, depending on the welfare asset rules instituted in their state. We find evidence that, taken as a group, the asset rules have a statistically significant effect on the probability of car ownership. Ordinary least squares results and cross‐sectional two‐stage least squares (2SLS) results using the asset rules to instrument for car ownership show a large, positive, statistically significant effect of car ownership on employment. However, in 2SLS models controlling for prior car ownership and prior employment, the asset instruments are weaker and we do not find an effect of car ownership on employment. Of significance for policy makers, we find that the asset rules do not have a statistically significant joint effect on welfare participation, even after addressing possible endogeneity. (JEL I38, J68, J08)     

旅游市场营销环境可持续发展研究

本文对旅游市场营销环境的涵义和特性进行了理念分析,阐述了旅游市场营销的微观环境和宏观环境,认为旅游市场的营销环境的可持续发展决定着旅游市场营销的效果,旅游市场营销的宏、微观环境的动态平衡和协调发展是旅游市场营销环境可持续发展的研究基础。     

THE EFFECT OF OPEN SPACES ON A HOME'S SALE PRICE

The relationship between a home's sale price and its proximity to different open spaces types is explored using a data set comprised of single-family home sales in the city of Portland, within Multnomah County, between 1990 and 1992. Homes located within 1,500 feet of a natural area park, where more than 50% of the park is preserved in native and/or natural vegetation, are found to experience, on average, the largest increase in sale price. The open space size that maximizes a home's sale price is calculated for each open space type. Natural area parks require the largest acreage to maximize sale price, and specialty parks are found to have the largest potential effect on a home's sale price. A zonal approach is used to examine the relationship between a home's sale price and its distance to an open space. Natural area parks and specialty parks are found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on a home's sale price for each zone studied. Homes located adjacent to golf courses (within 200 feet) are estimated to experience the largest increase in sale price due to open space proximity although the effect drops off quickly as distance from the golf course increases.     

A NOTE ON THE NONLINEAR EFFECT OF MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES

We use a labor search model with worker experience to assess the effects of minimum wage increases. Minimum wages can have nonlinear effects on unemployment as higher minimum wages become binding for larger portions of the underlying productivity distribution. The model is used to assess the increases proposed by the Obama Administration from $7.25 an hour to $9.00 and then to $10.10 per hour. We find that minimum wage increases have large effects on youth unemployment. These large effects cast doubt on using past empirical estimates of the effects of minimum wages that do not account for potential nonlinearities. (JEL E24, J08, J24, J64)     

城市边缘区耕地预警系统的研究—以温州市为例

人多地少是我国基本国情,城市边缘区作为农业用地向城市用地转化的过渡地带,耕地与其它建设用地矛盾极为尖锐。本文将有关经济,环境预警的基本方法引入耕地预警研究中,运用统计法与模型法对城市边缘区耕地数量变化进行了探讨,并将其应用于对温州边缘区耕地数量变化的预警。     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTING AS A PLANNING TOOL IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: LESSONS OF EXPERIENCE

This paper is directed at the following question: How far is the national accounting system as developed in the industrially advanced countries and recommended by the United Nations applicable and useful to countries at an early stage of development? In order to examine the suitability of this tool, the nature of economic policy decisions and their dependence on macro-statistical constructs are analysed, the emphasis being on planning as actually undertaken in the field or going to be undertaken in the near future and not on planning activities as possibly ought to be attempted. The conclusion reached, based upon personal experience in Africa, the Caribbean area, Brazil and Venezuela, both as “producer” and “user” of data, is that planning is mainly limited to the public sector. Comprehensive plans, prepared with the assistance of foreign consultants, were generally forgotten soon after publication, the driving force behind those plans being external pressure by bilateral donors and international agencies and propaganda-prestige motives. Real over-all economic management or consistent medium term planning of the whole economy never appeared to be an important factor in the decision-making process, possibly because those concepts are far too abstract and do not have short-term impact. The role of national accounting should therefore be limited to the provision of a general framework and factual support for public sector planning activities. In practice the United Nations system has been found far too complicated and ambitious, not sufficiently development planning oriented, and not suitable to the limited statistical resources available in the developing countries. The paper recommends the publication of several detailed “case studies” in national accounting, hoping that those studies might help to identify types of accounting systems appropriate to different existing constellations. In the meantime a drastic scaling down of the United Nations system should be undertaken; we should try to equate demand and supply of relevant information. In the final part, the paper considers planning requirements (timetable and flexibility, information required for a general assessment of the economy, crucial role of the publicsector, relative precision), statistical requirements (resources, data available, priorities, international reporting) and decision-makers’requirements (compactness, simplicity, background information, wishes of external aid donors) and recommends, as an interim measure, a simplified system of national accounts consisting of eight main tables.     

省直辖县(市)体制实现的路径及其影响

从制度环境的变化、双层架构的缺陷分析取消市管县(市)的必要性,总结了海南、重庆等地直辖县市的实践经验,在此基础上对省辖县(市)的两个实现路径进行了探讨,一是从强县扩权、强农扩权走向省直管县(市),二是在多层次、多类型的基础上实现省直管县(市).重点对推行省直辖县(市)与整体行政区划体制关系、影响进行了理性分析.研究认为,有条件地适度"分省"是完善省直辖县(市)体制的必然选择,也是巩固省直辖成果的重要保障;对县辖政区而言,省直辖体制的实施将为推行"县下辖市"提供了体制基础.