Development Path of China and India and the Challenges for their Sustainable Growth

The segmentation of global manufacturing and services provided China and subsequently India with a golden opportunity to make full use of their absolute advantage – low‐cost, yet educated labour – to integrate into the world economy within a comparatively shorter period of time than some earlier industrialisers. Though international trade functioned as a vent of surplus in view of the narrowness of their domestic markets at the beginning of their economic catch‐up, the label of export‐led model may not reflect the real picture as imports underwent dramatic increases during their respective growth periods, in particular for China. Foreign direct investment has played a pivotal role in their economic growth and has major presence in international trade and investment in leading sectors of both countries, giving rise to certain special features and weak links for their economic expansion and sustainability of fast economic growth. To maintain more broad‐based, fast and balanced growth, it seems that both countries have to redress sectoral imbalances, encourage technology upgrading and cope with future changes in demographic profiles which constituted a trigger to fast economic growth at the time of their respective economic reform.     

Impact of Corruption on the Development of Information and Communications Infrastructures in Bulgaria and Romania

Abstract

Bulgaria and Romania joined the European Union in January of 2007. Joining the EU is expected to promote the candidate country's economic growth, provide access to western technology, increase employment and attract foreign investments, the collective result of which is expected to be social, economic and technological advancement. In a perfect world where all factors contribute favorably those goals can be achieved. However, the detrimental impact of corruption on achieving national goals must also be addressed. This article examines linkages between information infrastructures and social development in Bulgaria and Romania as well as investment needs and financing were addressed with the objective to improve National Information Infrastructures (NII), expected payoffs from NII improvements were identified; the role of corruption in retarding information infrastructure development was also investigated. Using regression analysis the relationship between information infrastructures, social development, corruption, and economic development in Bulgaria and Romania were compared to those of the EU10 countries admitted into the EU in 2004 as well as to those in the original EU15 countries. It is concluded that given present conditions in Romania and Bulgaria development financing will have to come from internal and from World Bank sources rather than from foreign direct investment.     

Industrial Specialization,Catching‐up and Labour Market Dynamics

This paper presents a dynamic model as a heuristic tool to discuss some issues of changing industrial specialization which arise in the context of catching‐up processes of (technologically) less advanced economies and the impact which various scenarios of such catching‐up processes might have on the labour market dynamics both in the advanced and in the catching‐up economies. In analysing the evolution of international specialization, we demonstrate the twin pressures exerted upon the industrial structures of “northern” economies: competition from “type‐A southern” economies, which maintain a comparative competitive strength in labour‐intensive and less skill‐intensive branches, and competition from “type‐B catching‐up” economies, whose catching‐up increasingly focuses upon branches in which the initial productivity gaps and hence the scope for catching‐up are the highest. The contrast between these two catching‐up scenarios allows the explicit analysis of the implications of “comparative advantage switchovers” between northern and southern (type B) economies for labour market dynamics.     

Monetary policy spillovers and currency crisis in comparative perspective: East Asia before the 1997 crisis and Eastern Europe after tapering

This paper estimates the possibility of currency crisis in Eastern Europe that can be triggered by monetary policy change in the key currency countries, such as tapering measure. We examine the crisis possibility in the five Eastern European nations—the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania—by performing a comparative analysis with East Asian countries before the 1997 currency crisis. For the analysis, we estimate how much the exchange rate deviates from the estimated equilibrium exchange rate, as well as the synchronicity of currency value towards some of the key currencies by creating market pressure index. The results can be explained in two ways. First, the market pressure in the Eastern Europe after 2012 is smaller than they were in East Asia before 1997. The crisis possibility especially intensifies when more the exchange rate deviates from the equilibrium value. Second, the monetary policy change in the key currency countries does not greatly affect the crisis possibility in Eastern Europe when their local currencies have the strong synchronisation with euro. Therefore, Eastern European countries show strong synchronicity towards the euro, so the crisis possibility may be alleviated if the Eurozone continues its expansionary monetary policy.     

Consumer Perceptions of Business Ethical Behavior in Former Eastern Block Countries

The Business Ethics Index (BEI), measuring consumer perceptions of ethical business behavior, was extended to four ex-communist countries (Russia, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria). For Bulgaria, the two past dimensions are on the negative side of the scale. However, Bulgarians seem to be optimistic for the future ethical behavior of businesses. The same optimism about the future is observed for all four countries with Romania having the highest scores. Three hypotheses are proposed for the unusually high scores of the past ethical perceptions expressed by Russians.     

How do Firms’ Outward FDI Strategies Relate to their Activity at Home? Empirical Evidence for the UK

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between the structure of firms’ overseas FDI and the performance and organisation of their home‐country operations in both manufacturing and business services. It addresses two questions. First, does sorting into multinational status on the basis of productivity extend to the scale of overseas activity? Second, is there evidence that off‐shoring to low‐wage countries has asymmetric effects on high and low‐skill activities in the home economy? The paper considers heterogeneity in firms’ outward FDI strategies and in their behaviour at home, distinguishing between low‐skill and high‐skill‐intensive activities. I differentiate between firms that invest in relatively low‐wage economies and hence might be engaged in vertical FDI, and those that only invest in high‐wage economies. I find that firms that invest in low‐wage economies simultaneously invest in a large number of high‐wage economies, employing complex FDI strategies. I add to existing evidence by demonstrating that selection into multinational status on productivity extends beyond the decision of whether or not to engage in FDI, to the geographic scope of overseas operations. This is consistent with the highest productivity firms being best able to overcome large fixed costs of establishing multiple overseas facilities. I find evidence consistent with differential effects of vertical FDI on firms’ high and low‐skill manufacturing activity in the UK. Relocating low‐skill activity to relatively low‐wage economies could enable a firm to expand output, with potential positive effects on investment, employment and output in complementary (high‐skill) activities at home. For firms investing in relatively low‐wage economies, I find that labour in these countries may substitute for relatively low‐skilled labour in the UK. In high‐skill manufacturing industries I find that multinationals that invest in low‐wage economies are larger, more capital intensive and more intensive in their use of intermediate inputs than other UK‐owned firms.     

Intellectual Property Rights in Agriculture and the Interests of Asian‐Pacific Economies

This paper describes recent and ongoing processes of technological change in agriculture, which has become a highly R&D‐intensive sector in many countries of the Asia‐Pacific region. It also considers the role of various forms of intellectual property rights (IPRs) in promoting such technological changes and in affecting their diffusion through the region. A central part of the discussion is a review of how these various IPRs operate and are protected in major economies of the region. There is an assessment of the economic interests of key countries, including the United States, Canada, Australia, China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, in global and regional policy evolution in agricultural IPRs. These interests are a mix of comparative advantage in farming, which is quite distinctive among these countries, and the technological basis of production, which is more convergent. A review of available measures of innovation in the region suggests that all of these economies are active in developing new agricultural technologies, although there is considerable specialisation in the types of processes developed. Given this mix of divergence in comparative costs and convergence in technology interests, it is difficult to describe sharply the preferences these economies may have in continued globalisation of agricultural IPRs. However, the analysis points to some areas in which countries may continue to specialise – thereby retaining the ability to remain in specific areas of farming – and other fields in which international collaboration may be sensible.     

The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries

This paper investigates the importance of global risk factors and the predictability of returns of the 13 EU accession countries, using both unconditional and conditional asset-pricing tests during the turbulent period of 1997–2002. Applied for the first time to the full sample of EU accession countries, we conclude that the world excess return has only somewhat importance for Hungary, Poland and Turkey, indicating low financial liberalization and low integration with the world. The real G-7 interest rate followed by the world excess return, global foreign exchange rate and global inflation rates are the most influential in their explanation of the variation of local market returns. Predictability of local returns is high and variant; global instrumental variables have higher predictive power for eight countries, especially for Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania and Hungary, whereas local instruments are more important for the Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland and Slovenia. The failure of the conditional asset-pricing model to correctly price assets confirms partial integration with the world. Except for Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia and Malta, predictability cannot be explained by time variation in economic risk premiums, but by local information, market inefficiency and/or investor irrationality.     

EU Enlargement and the Portuguese Economy

The main focus of the present paper is on the emerging and likely future trade effects of enlargement. Though our particular concern is with Portugal, we set the scene by comparing the trade structures of the 10 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (i.e. the eight CEE accession states plus Bulgaria and Romania) – including an analysis of the individual cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – with those of the EU15 as a whole, and with those of the 4 EU cohesion countries. The elimination of trade barriers between incumbents and accession states will have two trade‐related effects on EU incumbents: an increase in bilateral flows with the CEEC and a shift effect as the CEEC displace some incumbent exports to EU markets. The first effect is likely to be strongest for those incumbents for which there is a strong overlap between their export structure and the import structure of the CEEC. Portugal emerges as one of the economies with the least overlap. The displacement effect, we conclude, is likely to be particularly strong in the case of Portugal, given the high degree of similarity between Portuguese exports and those of the CEEC. Portugal appears to be ‘being squeezed from below’ in that, for the majority of its traditional export sectors, the CEEC became progressively more competitive during the second half of the 1990's. Portuguese specialisation was increasingly confined to low‐technology, low‐added‐value sectors with declining demand, as strong FDI inflows to the CEEC led to an increasing preponderance of more dynamic sectors in their export structures. Thus, Portugal is also being squeezed from above. This suggests that there may be substantial industrial disruption, in response to which labour‐market flexibility and dynamic entrepreneurial response is crucial. Intersectoral mobility is generally easier the more highly educated the workforce – an indicator on which Portugal scores poorly. The Portuguese labour market, however, displays a high degree of flexibility, consistent with its long lasting low rate of unemployment. Continued flexibility will help minimise these likely adjustment costs. Besides the trade and industry effects, other topics considered in the paper include the implications of enlargement for Portugal's ability to attract FDI, the likely consequences for Portugal of inward migration from the CEEC to the EU, and the implications of enlargement for Portugal's budgetary relations with the rest of the EU.     

Climate Policy‐induced Investments in Developing Countries: The Implications of Investment Risks

1075 (Christoph Böhringer and Andreas Löschel) International climate policy has assigned the leading role in emissions abatement to the industrialised countries while developing countries remain uncommitted to binding emission reduction targets. However, cooperation between the industrialised and the developing world through joint implementation of emission abatement promises substantial economic gains to both parties. In this context, the policy debate on joint implementation has addressed the question of how investment risks to project‐based emission crediting between industrialised countries and developing countries affect the magnitude and distribution of such gains. In our quantitative analysis, we find that the incorporation of country‐specific investment risks induces rather small changes vis‐à‐vis a situation where investment risks are neglected. Only if investors go for high safety of returns is there a noticeable decline in the overall volume of emission crediting and the associated total economic benefits. While the welfare effects of risk incorporation for industrialised countries are unequivocally negative, the implications across developing countries are ambiguous. Whereas low‐risk developing countries attract higher project volumes and benefit from higher effective prices per emission credit compared to a reference scenario without risk, the opposite applies to high‐risk countries. The – politically undesired – shift in comparative advantage of emission abatement against high‐risk, typically least‐developed, countries may become larger if risk‐averse investors perceive large differences in project‐based risks across countries. In this case, only very cheap mitigation projects in high‐risk countries will be realised, driving down the respective country's benefits from emission crediting to the advantage of low‐risk developing countries.     

Trade Liberalization,Nature of Mergers and Employment

This paper investigates the roles of comparative advantage and market size in the international location of manufacturing production. Building on the conventional Helpman and Krugman (1985) general equilibrium framework, our analysis extends the present literature by incorporating both effects in the same model, while allowing trade costs to vary almost continuously from autarky to free trade. The main result of our exercise is that market size effects offset comparative advantage if countries have similar factor proportions. A large country with a slight comparative disadvantage in manufacturing production may thus be a net exporter of manufactures. A small country with the same comparative disadvantage would be a net importer of manufactures. When countries are very dissimilar in their relative factor endowments, land-abundant countries specialize in the production of food, irrespective of market size, if manufactures are a labour-intensive sector. Labour-rich countries of any size are manufacture cores. However, land-abundant countries with large markets can sustain a domestic manufacturing industry until trade costs are very low, and in some cases only specialize in agriculture at free trade.     

Liberalisation and Regional Market Integration: Turkish and Australian Automotive Sector Experience Compared

With similar production strategies and shared policy objectives forming a common background in both countries, plans to liberalise automotive production and trade emerged in Turkey and Australia after 1980. The subsequent outcomes of these attempts to abandon protection were to diverge, however, and the future viability of these two formerly heavily protected markets has now come to depend increasingly upon access to regional trade blocs. Examination of the path followed by these two economies as they adjust to the consequences of automotive liberalisation clarifies not only comparative economic performance in key areas of industry and trade, it also highlights the influence of differing levels of multi‐state economic integration, as these processes create, or fail to create, new opportunities for manufacturing economies operating in their individual regional geographic settings.     

Evaluation of the Information and Communications Infrastructures of Bulgaria and Romania Following Their Accession to the EU

ABSTRACT

The European Union (EU) completed a massive expansion in 2004. On January 1, 2007 Bulgaria and Romania were admitted into the union. EU accession requires the fulfillment of a list of requirements relating to judicial, economic, information and social infrastructures. This article examines Bulgaria's and Romania's National Information Infrastructures (NII) analyzing traditional, high technology and competitive structures. Comparisons are made to the original 15 European Union member countries' (EU15) NII structures and to those ten countries which entered in 2004 (EU10). Results of the analysis indicate that Bulgaria and Romania compare favorably on traditional measures, though high technology infrastructures lag considerably in some instances, and will be costly to build well beyond available EU funding sources. The gap will provide opportunities for western high technology firms which should be favorably embraced by the two resource strapped governments.     

Organization and Management Research in Transition Economies

Abstract

This article ascertains some problematic issues that may arise when conducting organization and management research in the former socialist countries. It reflects on methodological difficulties the two authors have encountered themselves in doing empirical research in a number of East European transition economies (the Baltic States, Bulgaria, and the CIS-especially in Belarus, Russia, and the Ukraine) since the beginning of the transformation in the late 1980s. By providing examples from their own experience, the authors suggest some solutions for solving methodological problems, which other researchers might face while accomplishing empirical studies in a peculiar but also a very attractive research context.     

Franchising in the Balkans: History,status, and challenges

Abstract

Since the Balkans have not been covered with regards to franchising in any comprehensive fashion in the past, this study represents a first look at the topic in this part of the world and contributes to the literature on franchising in emerging economies. This research contrasts the development of franchising in the ten Balkan countries of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia. A comprehensive overview of the franchise industry and its history is created for each country, integrating economic and franchise infrastructure development. The study reveals severe deficiencies in the region with regards to the availability of official data and a lack of specific legislation with regards to franchising and disclosure mandates, as well as education about franchising and a reliable legal environment. Implications for researchers and policy makers conclude the study.     

Industrial relations in Central and Eastern Europe

This article analyses industrial relations in the new Central and Eastern European EU member states and the candidate countries Bulgaria and Romania. Focusing on the private sector, it describes the major organisational attributes of the social partners and the structural features of the collective bargaining systems in these countries. The extent of strikes and industrial disputes is discussed, and some indications of future developments are presented.     

The Determinants of GATS Commitment Coverage

This paper investigates hypotheses about the determinants of trade and investment liberalisation with a particular focus on the market access and national treatment commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). We set up a database of these GATS commitments and use the ratio of all commitments listed by a country to the possible number of commitments as a measure of liberalisation of market access/national treatment. Our empirical analysis suggests that larger and ‘richer’ countries commit to more liberal regimes of market access and national treatment. This is surprising since economic theory predicts the largest welfare gains for low‐skilled abundant (skilled‐labour/physical‐capital‐scarce) economies. Also, our findings suggest that liberalisation is stronger among geographically close countries with strong ties in goods trade.     

资本流入新兴市场国家:共同的难题、不同的风险

近年来,包括中国在内的亚洲和欧洲新兴市场国家和地区成为了国际资本流入的热点.资本流入带来好处的同时,也给这些国家带来了不同程度的经济风险.对比分析亚洲和欧洲新兴市场国家的资本流入情况表明,亚洲国家和欧洲国家经济特点上的差异使二者之间面临的风险有所不同,采取的对策和受到的制约也不尽相同.     

Potential Market Opportunities in Hungary,Poland and Bulgaria

Central European economies are undergoing radical reforms changing from central planning to free market economies. If these changes are to be successful, there is a need for their govemments to liberalise legislation to allow privatisation to take place and to allow and encourage foreign investment in the countries. Potentially the most effective form of foreign investment is the participation of Western companies in the business of the country enabling development of the market and the local understanding of the methods of business in free market economies. Whether and to what extent this participation takes place depends on the macro-environmental climate and the specific market environments in the countries. This paper addresses both of these issues and is based on a twelve month study of marketing conditions in Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria. In the first part the macro changes taking place are explored and the overall attractiveness assessed by comparison with the published literature on the market entry strategies. The conclusion is that Hungary is the most attractive of the three countries concerned for Western company investment in terms of political stability, economic development and performance, cultural unity, and lower legal and geo-cultural similarity.     

The GCC’s Fixed Exchange Rate: A Major Anomaly for OCA Analysis

From the standpoint of traditional optimal currency area (OCA) analysis, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are a major anomaly. They successfully maintained pegged exchange rates among themselves for two decades while failing to meet a number of major OCA criteria. Contrary to the optimistic predictions of some of the most enthusiastic advocates of endogenous OCA analysis, intra‐regional trade has remained low and there is little synchronisation of their business cycles or harmonisation of their fiscal positions. We argue that their success in operating a fixed rate regime has been due to a combination of high oil revenue, the heavy use of foreign workers and the limited extent to which their economies rely on market forces. These are conditions that are not met by most other countries.