Valuation of R&D real American sequential exchange options

Valuation of R&D real American sequential exchange options requires specifying the pattern of R&D expenditures and the stochastic process of the eventual R&D project. We model the stages of R&D expense and then the ultimate discovery (and the development cost for the discovery) using real sequential (compound) exchange option models. We study E_Commerce R&D, so the timing is relatively short‐term, with initial R&D, a second phase of R&D, and a final development phase, when the project values are realized. We use proxies from the financial markets for expected project value and cost volatilities (and correlation). Then the real option valuation is based on an approximate American sequential exchange option.     

Real options and real value: the role of employee incentives to make specific knowledge investments

Real options reasoning emphasizes the strategic value of making flexible investments in a turbulent environment. Employees' investments in specific human capital are often critical to the success of a real option project, but the very flexibility that allows a firm to change course in response to new information also affects employees' incentives to make such specific human capital investments. We develop a model of real option investment that explicitly incorporates the role of employee incentives. The model suggests that the effect of investing in a real option project on employee incentives may be positive, further increasing the value of the project, or negative, sometimes more than offsetting the benefit of flexibility and resulting in reduced project value. Therefore, firms and managers should take into consideration the role of employee incentives when applying real options logic to investment decision making. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investment opportunities and R&D investments in family and nonfamily firms

The firm’s investment opportunity set (IOS) reflects the prospective growth opportunities related to physical and human capital investments. IOSs are largely firm specific, embedded in assets-in-place, or generated by experience curves, learning-by-doing, and other similar phenomena. However, the value of an IOS can be destroyed if a firm does not exercise the option to invest. In this study, we theorize that a firm’s ability to invest in R&D is conditional on the availability of a favorable IOS. We test our theoretical propositions in the European business environment using a sample of large publicly traded firms with concentrated ownership. Our findings support the notion that the IOS is a significant determinant of corporate R&D investments, but the magnitude of this effect depends on the identity of the ultimate owner. Specifically, the sensitivity of R&D investments of family- and state-owned corporations is higher to favorable IOS than that of widely held corporations, suggesting these firms are more responsive to favorable IOS than others. By introducing the IOS dimension, our results have interesting implications for both theory and practice.     

Real options valuation: the new frontier in R&D project evaluation?

The real options approach has recently received growing attention in R&D and Technology Management research. Recent empirical findings by Ellis (1997) and Busby and Pitts (1997) also report growing attention and use in practical investment decisions. However, there is a certain concern about the applicability to a wide range of R&D related problems. The theoretical base behind options valuation is derived from the capital markets and thus assumes market conditions that are closer to the theoretical construct of 'perfect competition' than most other settings. Even under these conditions, several assumptions made and difficulties left are subject to controversial discussions. Of course these problems even gain importance when the R&D environment with its discontinuities and lack of regulation or institutionalized trade is assumed. This paper describes some basic properties of the real options approach and sheds light on existing problems for the application in R&D project evaluation. On the other hand, roads to application of the method are shown using the Geske model of option evaluation. One main goal of the paper is to broaden and deepen the discussion on real option models in R&D and Technology Management, which has in some cases been limited to stressing the advantages of the method rather than reflecting on applicability and concrete way of application of the method.     

Real options reasoning and a new look at the R&D investment strategies of pharmaceutical firms

Real options reasoning (ROR) is a conceptual approach to strategic investment that takes into account the value of preserving the right to make future choices under uncertain conditions. In this study, we explore firms' motivations to invest in a new option. We find, based on an analysis of a large sample of patents by firms active in the pharmaceutical industry, that their investments in R&D are consistent with the logic of ROR. We identify three constructs—scope of opportunity, prior experience, and competitive effects—which have an influence on firms' propensity to invest in new R&D options and which could usefully be incorporated in a strategic theory of investment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

R&D as an option on market introduction

Discounted cash flow methods for making R&D investment decisions cannot properly capture the option value in R&D. Since market and technology uncertainties change expectations about the viability of many new products, the value of projects is frequently adjusted during the R&D stages. Capturing the adjustment in expectations has an option value that may significantly differ from the Net Present Value of R&D projects. However, there are no historic time series for estimating the uncertainty of the value of R&D projects. As a result, the standard Black and Scholes model for financial option valuation needs to be adjusted. The aim of this paper is to report the application of a particular option pricing model for setting the budget of R&D projects. The option value of the model captures jumps or business shifts in market or technology conditions. The approach originates from applying current insight into the valuation of R&D projects to the field of multimedia research at Philips Corporate Research. This way, the gap between real option theory and R&D practice is further diminished.     

International R&D project evaluation by multinational corporations in the electronics and IT industry of Singapore

This paper explores a number of variables associated with the evaluation of international R&D projects by multinational corporations (MNCs) in the electronics and IT industry of Singapore. Empirical analysis of the data collected from R&D managerial executives suggests a series of considerations in relation to their R&D investments. It is desirable if R&D can create a potential impact on the growth of their regional and international businesses. In considering the risks associated with an R&D project, a balance approach would be appropriate when demanding a return on investment. In particular, the consistence with customer demands, the achievement of time‐based competitiveness, the training of R&D manpower and the development of conducive innovation environments are fundamental to the success of international R&D projects.     

Flexibility planning for managing R&D projects under risk

Incorporating managerial flexibility in an innovative R&D project is important, because managers face greater uncertainty in today's competitive and dynamic changing environment. It is essential to bring managerial flexibility into R&D project planning to decrease technical and market risks, while increasing potential market value. The objective of this paper is to develop a flexibility planning methodology based on real option analysis to improve managerial flexibility for R&D projects. The proposed methodology identifies potential risks that may occur during every R&D stage. It also recognizes a cascading option structure to resolve the identified risks, and evaluates and selects adequate options that maximize the potential value of the project. Instead of using a traditional option pricing method, a dynamic programming model that considers multidimensional product performance and market payoff is used to evaluate the R&D project value. Using the proposed methodology, managers can identify future scenarios as a function of their management actions. The proposed flexibility planning methodology can help managers improve managerial flexibility of R&D project and increase the success rate of product launch. A drug development project is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Irreversibility, sunk costs and investment under incomplete information

Despite its importance to economic growth, the investment behavior of firms remains poorly understood. Existing models ignore irreversibility and the opportunity to wait for new information. Even if some recent literature accounts for these two characteristics, these models ignore information costs. This paper presents a framework for the valuation of investment opportunities accounting for information costs regarding the project cash‐flows.
We develop some basic models of irreversible investment to illustrate the option‐like characteristics of investment opportunities under incomplete information. We show how optimal investment rules can be obtained using option pricing theory under incomplete information. It is possible to value real options and investment decisions using our approach in a context of incomplete information. Simulations are provided to illustrate our main results.     

The right speed and its value

Slow investments cause substantial revenue losses, yet acceleration increases costs. This tradeoff implies that an optimal investment speed usually exists; it is faster the higher a firm's intrinsic speed capability. We hypothesize that it is a firm's intrinsic speed capability, rather than its speed relative to industry competitors per se, that boosts firm value. Using data on oil and gas facilities (1996–2005), we find that intrinsic speed capabilities augment firm value in a varied way: their value is larger with better corporate governance, lower cost of capital, and higher ability to draw value from R&D investment. Our work elevates the discussion of speed from a project‐level consideration to a firm‐level competitive advantage issue and raises the need to further explore its strategic value. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A gene to drug venture: Poisson options analysis

We provide a Poisson real option model of a gene‐to‐drug venture. First we describe a general new drug discovery programme as well as a specific secretory protein research programme. Then we model both the candidate secretory gene and the 'hot' gene discoveries as Poisson processes. Gene deal value sizes are modeled as lognormal distributions. Then we calculate the expected R&D value (EV) of the Poisson discoveries times the value distributions, for both stages. Finally, for generic collaborating‐funding arrangements, we show the Merton (1976) standard mixed diffusion‐jump option value, compared to a risk neutral 'intrinsic' value. Under simple assumptions, the real option value is substantial, even if there is no intrinsic value.     

Three decades of research on corporate governance and R&D investments: a systematic review and research agenda

This paper reviews and systematizes the empirical research on the nexus between corporate governance (CG) and investments in research and development (R&D) published in leading business, management, economics and finance journals over the past 30 years. We find that CG is key in shaping R&D investments. Moreover, the effects of both firm- and country-level CG are important for both internal and external R&D investments. Drawing on our review, we welcome future studies to examine the effect of the interplay between various CG mechanisms and different types of R&D investments, and possibly identify mediating variables besides the moderating ones. Moreover, we highlight the need for future interdisciplinary studies, as well as investigations of private companies and across developing countries. Whenever causal interpretations are attempted, both sample selection and endogeneity problems should be addressed, along with testing the CG-R&D investment nexus for nonlinear dynamics. The implications of the study for both theory and practice are also discussed.     

Integrating Real Options with Managerial Cash Flow Estimates

This article presents a real options model that fits managerial cash flow estimates (optimistic, likely, and pessimistic projections) to a continuous geometric Brownian motion (GBM) cash flow process with changing growth and volatility parameters. The cash flows and the value of a project are correlated to a traded asset, so the real option is priced under the risk-neutral measure with a closed-form solution. The analysis is extended to a sequential compound call option for investments over multiple periods. If the project is correlated to the market, then some of the risk may be mitigated by a delta-hedging strategy. A numerical example shows that the effect of the correlated asset on the real option value is significant, and the relationship between the volatility of the project and the real option value is not analogous to the typical relationship found in financial option pricing. Integrating the expertise and industry knowledge of management, this approach makes possible a more rigorous estimation of model inputs for real option pricing.     

An option approach to the new product development process: a case study at Philips Electronics

The paper considers the product development process as a series of (real) options with reducing uncertainty over time. Criteria are developed to decide on speeding up or delaying the development process. The paper demonstrates how, in the R&D phase, any particular project may be assigned within a 2 × 2 matrix of uncertainty versus R&D option value. A similar matrix can be established for the product launch phase. The matrices support portfolio management throughout the different phases of development and enable management to decide on an appropriate point at which to abandon individual projects. The approach originates from applying real options insights into the product development process at Philips Electronics. The paper is illustrated with some actual R&D projects.     

Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.     

Profitability Goals,Control Goals,and the R&D Investment Decisions of Family and Nonfamily Firms

Research and development (R&D) investments can help build sustainable competitive advantages and improve firm performance. Nevertheless, managers also acknowledge the difficulties associated with managing R&D and the low chances of success of innovation programs. For this reason, researchers have long been interested in understanding how managers make R&D investment decisions. Research grounded in the behavioral theory of the firm suggests that a primary driver of R&D investment decisions is profitability: when profitability goals have not been met, managers are more likely to initiate a problemistic search through increasing R&D investments. While emphasizing profitability goals and their relationship with R&D investments, prior research largely downplays the role of goals beyond profitability that exist in a significant number of firms (family firms) that are owned and managed by family members whose primary concern is preserving their control over the organization. Research indicates that these family‐centered noneconomic goals lead family managers to minimize R&D investments and that the coexistence of multiple goals produces highly variable R&D investment behavior. Yet, how family‐centered goals for control and profitability enter decision‐making in family firms is not fully understood. In this study, we propose that family managers form distinctive reference points that capture supplier bargaining power and are used to evaluate the degree of external obstruction to their managerial control. The empirical analysis of panel data on 431 private Spanish manufacturing firms observed over the period 2000–2006 shows that the importance of profitability and control goals follows a sequential logic in family firms, such that family firms react more strongly to increasing supplier bargaining power when their profitability reference points have been reached. This study extends current understanding of the distinctive organizational processes engendered by family management in business organizations leading to new research opportunities at the intersection of the innovation management and family business literatures.     

R &D investments and profitability during the crisis: evidence from Greece

Innovation and Research and Development (R&D) investments have been considered in the literature as a significant determinant of corporate development and sustainability. Previous studies have examined the impact of intangibles on financial performance but not extensively within economic environments of intense financial turmoil. The scope of this study is to shed further light on this issue and examine whether R&D investments had an impact on the profitability of Greek firms especially during the sovereign debt crisis. We collected a sample of Greek corporations that have capitalized their R&D investments and paid significant amounts on R&D expenses during the period 2003–2016. Panel regression results indicated that R&D investments and R&D expenses had a negative impact on the profitability of sample firms before the crisis, but during the crisis (2011–2016) firms which managed to sustain or enhance their level of R&D investments achieved to improve their profitability. These findings corroborate our hypotheses that during a period of limited lending and hearse financial turmoil, R&D investments could be a vital tool for sustaining firms' financial performance. The study offers useful implications for managers and regulators, and contributes to the ongoing debate about the impact of R&D investments on corporate performance.     

多寡头不确定条件下的矿山企业期权博弈基本价值研究

期权博弈方法把实物期权和博弈论结合起来,在不确定性条件和竞争环境下,为企业提供项目的投资估价和决策,以实现投资项目价值的最大化。竞争环境下的矿山企业博弈参与方不再局限于对称双寡头,而是考虑了序贯均衡阶段的多寡头矿山企业,在进行项目投资决策时,可假设投资初期成本各不相同,建立多寡头矿山企业期权博弈基本价值的价值函数和最佳投资时机进行研究。     

Optimal exploration investments under price and geological‐technical uncertainty: a real options model

This article develops a real options model for valuing natural resource exploration investments (e.g. oil or copper) when there is joint price and geological‐technical uncertainty. After a successful several‐stage exploration phase, there is a development investment and an extraction phase. All phases are optimized contingent on price and geological‐technical uncertainty.
Several real options are considered. There are flexible investment schedules for all exploration stages and a timing option for the development investment. Once the mine is developed, there are closure, opening and abandonment options for the extraction phase. Our model maintains a relatively simple valuation structure by collapsing price and geological‐technical uncertainty into a one‐factor model.
We apply the model to a copper exploration prospect and find that a significant fraction of total project value is due to the operational, development and exploration options available to project managers.     

Principal researcher and project manager: who should drive R&D projects?

In this paper, it is analyzed the hypothesis that in R&D the principal researcher (PR) is accepted as the coordinator or project manager (PM), carrying out the search for financing and to manage contracts, resources, cost, time, scope, risk and uncertainty, communication, stakeholders and so on, in addition to internal research activities. Thus, this study tries to verify this hypothesis through a major literature review in different types of projects developed by university, but also with a look to industry and industry-university cooperation. Two case studies are also analyzed, centered in its R&D project management maturity level. It is concluded that there is an important issue in projects’ success and in the time spent by PR in management, work for which they are under trained; while at the industry there is a greater approach to project management by the proximity of the innovation projects to other industrial projects. Following these initial findings and according to the case study results, it is proposed that R&D Projects in universities would be separated into two synergistic knowledge areas: R&D Management and Project Management. It is also recommended to allocate them to two distinct roles, where they could add value to R&D through their better knowledge and skills.