基于两级供应链的退货政策研究

针对流行性商品需求不确定及生命周期短暂的特性,制造商对零售商采取全部退货政策。文章是在由制造商和零售商组成的两级供应链情况下,以双方及供应链整体利润为目标,就退货政策使用前后进行比较建立数学模型。最后,用数学软件对模型进行分析,结果表明,加入退货政策后,无论退货价格如何,供应链整体利润均增加,但只有退货价格在一定的范围内,才可以同时增加供应链双方的利润,达到供应链协调。     

碳排放政策下的供应链定价与减排北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章以供应链的减排量和价格为研究对象,建立了制造商主导的斯坦伯格两阶段动态博弈模型,探讨了碳税、碳交易、总量控制目标政策下由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的供应链的定价与减排优化问题。研究表明:碳排放政策下制造商和零售商的定价策略相反,随着排放政策变得严厉,制造商提高批发价格而零售商降低边际利润;产品初始绿色程度、减排成本系数和碳排放价格是影响供应链定价和减排的重要因素。供应链初始绿色程度低时碳排放价格对供应链减排量的影响存在阈值效应。文章还从供应链层面比较了三种排放政策的减排效力,发现即使减排政策不同,只要安排适当也可以实现同样的减排目标,但效果优劣有碳交易、碳税、总量控制的次序之分。     

制造商与网络零售商之供应链回购契约协调研究——基于Stackelberg博弈分析

运用基于经典报童问题的回购契约协调由单一制造商和单一网络零售商构成二阶供应链。构建stackelberg博弈模型和供应链整合模型,并求解算例,据此讨论双方如何运用回购契约,通过调整变量和参数来协调供应链的利润分配并实现供应链的最佳绩效。研究表明,作为主导方的制造商若同时提升批发价和更高倍率的补贴价,自身利润和供应链的总利润将会增加,供应链绩效也会得以改善,但跟随者网络零售商的利润会有所下降。     

低碳偏好下三级供应链协调策略研究

以一个零售商为领导者、一个制造商和一个供应商为追随者组成的三级低碳供应链为研究对象,应用微分对策理论,考虑低碳偏好和产品商誉下研究下游零售商低碳宣传、上游制造商和供应商联合减排的低碳供应链优化与协调问题。研究发现,零售商、制造商和供应商选择何种博弈策略与三者的边际收益率有关;当供应链上三个主体的边际收益率满足一定条件时,成本分担契约可以促进零售商、制造商、供应商以及供应链系统整体的Pareto改进,使各自的最优利润得到改善,改善的程度等于成本分担的比例,而成本分担的比例取决于双方的边际收益率。最后,通过算例对模型进行了分析。     

面向再制造的废旧电子产品回收定价和收入共享契约研究

考虑由制造商、分销商和零售商组成的废旧电子产品回收再制造三级闭环供应链。首先在分散决策和集中决策两种情况下,对零售商分别基于自身利润最大化和供应链整体利润最大化建立了数学模型,得到了零售商回收废旧电子产品的最优定价,随后针对再制造产品建立了收入共享契约模型,并对收入共享契约参数进行了求解。     

政府补贴下考虑销售努力的绿色供应链决策研究

在政府给予绿色补贴的情况下,考虑企业销售努力对绿色供应链决策的影响.以一个制造商和零售商构成的二级绿色供应链为研究对象,建立制造商主导和零售商主导的不同权力结构下的绿色供应链决策模型.通过对比分析不同模型决策,进一步采取算例分析进行验证,为企业实施绿色供应链管理提出相关建议.研究结果表明:政府绿色度补贴系数改变了产品绿色度、批发价格、销售努力、零售商利润、制造商利润以及供应链总体的利润;销售努力的投入会影响产品的批发价格以及零售商利润;无论是否考虑销售努力,集中决策下,供应链的效率总是大于分散决策下的效率;零售商主导的分散决策下,供应链效率高于制造商主导时的供应链的效率.     

政府补贴下考虑零售商竞争的供应链决策研究

为研究政府补贴制造商生产成本下零售商竞争对供应链决策的影响,考虑政府补贴率和零售商竞争强度两个因素,建立3种供应链决策模型,分析政府补贴系数和零售商竞争强度对供应链决策的影响。结果表明,零售商竞争会使零售价格提高,而不影响制造商的批发价,竞争越激烈,供应链各成员的定价和利润越低。在3种供应链决策模型下,竞争强度和政府补贴对制造商利润的影响程度最高。     

基于区块链的闭环供应链定价及回收策略

考虑区块链技术下新能源汽车闭环供应链定价及回收决策问题,构建制造商和零售商回收模式下链上成员Stackelberg博弈模型。结果表明,随着消费者对绿色产品偏好提升,碳减排努力、链上成员利润及社会福利等均增长;提高梯次利用比例将增加零售商回收模式下零售商利润、两种回收模式下制造商利润及社会福利,尤其引入区块链及制造商回收对社会福利影响显著;采用区块链单位成本满足一定阈值时,采用区块链有利于提升需求量和碳减排努力。     

碳交易背景下考虑公平关切的双渠道闭环供应链定价决策

考虑到碳交易政策和公平偏好会影响双渠道闭环供应链定价决策，分别构建碳交易背景下公平中性、零售商公平关切信息对称与不对称时双渠道闭环供应链进行最优决策的Stackelberg动态博弈模型。通过求解各个均衡解，研究各个均衡解与制造商和零售商公平关切的关系。通过数值算例分析，着重考虑零售商公平关切信息对称与不对称时制造商和零售商公平关切对双闭环供应链最优定价决策的影响，并进行对比分析。研究结果表明：无论零售商公平关切信息对称还是不对称，新产品的销售价格与制造商和零售商公平关切都成正比，再制品的销售价格不受公平关切的影响；新产品的市场需求与制造商和零售商公平关切都成反比，再制品的市场需求与制造商和零售商的公平关切都成正比；公平关切会降低企业利润，公平关切信息不对称会加剧这一现象。     

政府补贴下竞争闭环供应链回收再制造决策模型分析

文章以博弈论为研究方法,基于政府对制造商废品回收进行补贴和不补贴两种情形,分析零售商、第三方废品回收商价格竞争环境下,由制造商、零售商和第三方废品回收商组成的再制造闭环供应链决策前后最优策略的变化。研究结果表明:政府对制造商废品回收进行补贴时,零售商、第三方废品回收商的废品回收量、回收价格、废品出售价格以及制造商、零售商、第三方废品回收商的利润均高于政府不提供补贴时的情形,且政府补贴程度越大,上述值越大。最后通过数值算例和仿真分析验证了模型的正确性。     

考虑引流作用与定价权的网红直播带货定价策略分析

构建一个由制造商与零售商组成的二级双渠道供应链，其中制造商一方面为零售商供货，另一方面通过直播渠道销售产品。考虑到网红直播能够为线下零售引流，分别讨论网红主播有直播渠道定价权与制造商有直播渠道定价权两种情况下供应链成员最优决策问题。研究发现：在制造商拥有直播渠道定价权时，零售价格与直播渠道价格均高于网红主播拥有直播渠道定价权时的情景，制造商与网红主播谁拥有直播渠道定价权谁就在直播带货中更有利可图。当制造商拥有渠道定价权且选择头部主播进行带货时，零售商存在着“搭便车”的现象。     

Does Manufacturer Advertising Crowd‐in or Crowd‐out Retailer Advertising? An Application of an Endogenous Prize Contest with Asymmetric Players

When a manufacturer advertises, what is the impact on retailer advertising? I analyze a contest model of advertising where total advertising by the manufacturer and by retailers determines market size, and the relative level of advertising by each retailer determines market share. If retailers are symmetric I show that there is a crowding‐in effect so increased manufacturer advertising increases retail advertising. But if one retailer is stronger, then marginal increases in manufacturer advertising have a crowding‐out effect on retailer advertising, while sufficiently large increases have a crowding‐in effect by “jump‐starting” competition between retailers for the larger market. Furthermore, asymmetric abilities in such contests can lead the weaker player to effectively drop out of the contest, thereby undermining the ability of increased prizes to increase effort by intensifying competition.     

Federal Reserve Communications and Emerging Equity Markets

Work on the impact of U.S. monetary policy on emerging financial markets mostly focuses on official target rate announcements; empirical evidence using data on informal communication channels, such as speeches, is scant. Employing a unique data set covering formal and informal communication channels in a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model framework, we provide comprehensive evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy on 17 emerging equity market returns over the period 1998–2009. We find, first, that both monetary policy actions and communications have a significant impact on market returns. Second, target rate change surprises are an important driver of emerging market returns. However, informal communications—particularly when taking into account their higher frequency—have a larger (cumulative) influence on returns than do target rate surprises. Third, during the recent financial crisis, central bank communication played an even more pronounced role. Finally, American emerging markets react more to communications than do non‐American markets.     

检验检疫部门在支持“跨境电子商务零售出口”方面亟需解决问题的分析与探讨

检验检疫部门现行有关政策已经严重不适应"跨境电子商务零售出口"企业的发展现状,不能满足其实际需求,在与"跨境电子商务零售出口"企业座谈过程中,其也普遍表达了对现行监管体制加以改革完善的呼吁。为此,检验检疫部门应当加大政策研究力度,重点调研相关规章制度在"跨境电子商务零售出口"环境下的适用性,特别是针对涉及"跨境电子商务零售出口"企业的监管,要与时俱进的出台与其相配套的政策,以便规范其管理,从而更好地为外贸发展服务。     

零售业跨国公司进入中国市场的现状及影响

近年来,随着零售业发展的政策环境越来越宽松,国内消费规模不断扩大,零售业跨国公司抓住难得的机会大举进入中国市场,激发了我国零售业发展的活力,但也对我国零售业产生了巨大的压力和挑战,零售业跨国公司进入中国市场对我国零售业的影响是利弊共存的。国内零售业应从核心竞争力的培育、积极发展各类先进经营业态和实施"走出去"等方面采取一定的措施。     

Reinvestigating the Oil Price–Stock Market Nexus: Evidence from Chinese Industry Stock Returns

The present study investigates the influence of international oil prices on China's stock market returns across 29 different industries. The paper attempts to account for any structural breaks and nonlinearity in this relationship. The results reveal that the effect of changes in the international price of oil on stock returns differs substantially across industries. The stock returns of the coal, chemical, mining and oil industries are found to be positively affected by crude oil price movements. Conversely, electronics, food manufacturing, general equipment, pharmaceuticals, retail, rubber and vehicle industries are found to be negatively affected by movements in the price of crude oil. The results of the estimations also suggest that the majority of Chinese industries have been significantly affected by oil prices since 2004. The influence of international oil prices on Chinese stocks also has a stronger effect in the presence of high volatility but the effect varies across industries.     

Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data

This paper examines the temporal effect of domestic monetary policy surprises on both returns and volatility of returns of the South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The analysis in this “event study” proceeds using intra‐day minute‐by‐minute exchange rate data, repo rate data from the South African Reserve Bank's scheduled monetary policy announcements, and market consensus repo rate forecasts. A carefully selected sample over the period August 2003 to November 2017 ensures that the change in monetary policy is exogenous to the exchange rate. We find statistically and economically significant responses in intra‐day high‐frequency South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns and volatility of exchange rate returns to domestic interest rate surprises, but anticipated changes have no bearing on exchange rate returns and their volatility. The empirical results also indicate that there is an instantaneous response of the rand/dollar exchange rate to monetary policy surprises and that monetary policy news is an important determinant of the exchange rate until at least 42 minutes after the pronouncement – suggesting a high degree of market “efficiency” in its mechanical sense (although not necessarily in the deeper economic‐informational sense) in processing this information. Essentially, the asymmetric GARCH results exhibit no leverage effects – positive and negative information shocks have symmetric effects on conditional variance.     

Monetary Policy and Risk-Based Asset Allocation

This paper focuses on the effects of the Fed’s monetary policy on stock and bond returns co-movement and their implications to risk-based asset allocation. Using a regime-switching model that controls for the economic effects of monetary policy we identify three co-movement regimes. We document that risk-based portfolio strategies poorly perform in the low correlation regime which features inflation shocks. We find outperformance evidence under the negative correlation regime with a high stock market risk and a very accommodating Fed policy. Less effectiveness is demonstrated under the positive correlation regime where bonds are regarded as risky assets and interest rate volatility is fueled by monetary policy.     

The impact of natural disaster risk on the return of agricultural futures

This paper constructs a natural disaster risk index based on natural disaster keywords from news media that can reflect weather, crop diseases, epidemics, and other threats to agricultural prices in China. We then examine the response of agricultural futures returns to the change in natural disaster risk. We find that natural disaster risk has a significant positive impact on soybean, wheat, corn, and sugar futures returns during normal and bullish market conditions. We further investigate the moderating effect of policy intervention and show that the marginal effect of natural disaster risk on soybean futures returns (but not other agricultural futures) is influenced by policy intervention. These results indicate that the adjustment of natural disaster risk assessment will benefit portfolio management.