构建陕西产业新体系 培育经济可持续发展动力

陕西不仅是＂一五＂＂二五＂国民经济规划实施的工业强省,也是新一届政府重点发展＂新丝绸之路经济带＂的桥头堡,应该以此为契机,借助这一发展机遇,全面认真地构建陕西省现代产业新体系,培育我省经济可持续发展的内生动力,真正实现＂丝绸之路＂桥头堡经济地位。     

人物

周成建：＂卖艺＂也＂卖身＂ 打出＂新国货＂主张的美特斯邦威，请来了一位更重量级的＂周董＂代言。旗下MTEE最新一季的广告，在代言人周杰伦身边，赫然出现了美特斯邦威董事长周成建。     

“限购令”不妨允许“买一卖一”

一、＂限购令＂和＂停售令＂的规定及其市场效果2010年下半年,上海等几个主要城市出台了住房＂限购令＂,规定户籍家庭、非户籍但交纳社会保险的家庭只能新购买一套住房,旨在控制投机、平抑住房价格。2010年底,上海住房市场又出现了一波价量齐升的行情,＂限购令＂没有能够达到预期目的。2011年1月,根据＂新国八条＂,上海市出台了＂沪九条＂和＂房产税实施细则＂。＂沪九条＂规定：对在本市已拥有2套及以上住房的本市     

新“医改”背景下医院绩效工资改革探讨

一、＂医院职工工资总额管理＂的含义新＂医改＂背景下我省医院绩效工资改革的方向和重点。《中共中央国务院关于深化医药卫生体制改革的     

“换届”不要“换花样”

“换届”不要“换花样”三年一度的乡镇领导班子换届在去年底已经开始，新的一届班子即将产生。换届选举后的新班子，一般来说，都会对工作有些新的举措，这是无可非议的。值得注意的是，＂换届＂不能＂换花样＂，新的一届班子不能一味求＂新＂，求立竿见影，以此博取当地...     

新国九条中的市值管理玄机

从＂产值管理＂到＂利润管理＂,再到＂市值管理＂是企业蜕变和腾飞的过程。国务院的一纸＂新国九条＂再一次为A股市场强化了（上证指数）2000点的政策底。但更值得一提的是,＂新国九条＂首次提出＂鼓励上市公司建立市值管理制度＂。从＂产值管理＂到＂利润管理＂,再到＂市值管理＂是企业蜕变和腾飞的过程。企业要良性循环和做大做强,必须走＂货币,货币资源化;资源,资源产业化;产业,产业资本化;资本,     

限购到何时

被称作＂最严限购令＂的＂京十五条＂2月一出台,着实对北京房地产市场起到了立竿见影的降温效果。早在2010年4月,北京就率先提出＂暂定同一购房家庭只能在本市新购买一套商品住房＂的规定,成为全国首部＂限购令＂,引发不少城市跟进,同时引发社会对＂限购令＂的关注和争论。2011年1月,国务院出台＂新国八条＂对住房限购予以肯定,明确要求地方政府尽快出台限购措施。但这一要求并未给＂政府该不该限购房子＂的争论画上句号,目前人们争论的焦点还集中在限购令是否该出台以及限购政策的效果上。     

浅谈领导形象的“美而有度”

某县政府办公室一位工作人员随县长下乡检查工作,将所拍摄的一张＂效果不佳＂的照片做了＂拼接、修改＂,以图文信息的方式发布在县政府网站上。在照片中,县领导们＂漂浮＂在一条公路上＂检查新建成的通乡公路＂。     

中国经济进入“新常态”了吗？

最近一段时期,＂新常态＂成了非常热门的词汇,但可惜的是,＂新常态＂并非现实。现实是什么？现实是当前中国经济仍在下行,尚未见底!仍在下行、尚未见底的中国经济现状,肯定不是一个正常的增长型态,当然也就更不会是所谓的＂新常态＂。     

行政单位会计“双分录”的意义及运用

新修订的《行政单位会计制度》的颁布实施是一项重大变革,创新在于通过扩大＂双分录＂核算范围,达到既反映行政单位财务状况,又反映预算执行情况的目的,弥补了原会计制度的不足。＂双分录＂在新制度中起到了穿针引线、全面兼顾的作用。文章通过解读新会计制度的指导思想,分析了采用＂双分录＂核算方法的积极意义、具体账务处理及运用中存在的问题。     

Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth

The literature suggests that the dispersion of agents’ forecasts of an event flows from heterogeneity of beliefs and models. Using a data set of fixed event point forecasts of UK GDP growth by a panel of independent forecasters published by HM Treasury, we investigate three questions concerning this dispersion: (a) Are agent’s beliefs randomly distributed or do agents fall into groups with similar beliefs? (b) as agents revise their forecasts, what roles are played by their previous and consensus forecasts? and (c) is an agent’s private information of persistent value? We find that agents fall into four clusters, a large majority, a few pessimists, and two idiosyncratic agents. Our proposed model of forecast revisions shows agents are influenced positively by a change in the consensus forecast and negatively influenced by the previous distance of their forecast from the consensus. We show that the forecasts of a minority of agents significantly lead the consensus.     

时间序列预测法在库存结构管理中的应用

航空器材的库存结构受许多因素影响,如何使库存结构合理是航材管理人员长期以来一直在探索的问题。时间序列预测法就是利用过去的历史数据,推断未来事物的发展规律,它可以消除随机因素对库存数量的影响,使预测更加准确,从而使航材管理人员作出更加合理的决策。     

A financial accelerator in the business sector of a macroeconometric model of a small open economy

We have incorporated a financial accelerator mechanism operating through investments in the business sector in a dynamic macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy. In this new and amended model aggregated credit and equity prices are determined simultaneously in a system characterized by a two-directional contemporaneous causal link, which has been designed and estimated by a new procedure for simultaneous structural model design. Combined with a mechanism where credit and asset prices are mutually influenced by real investments, this creates a financial accelerator amplified by a credit-asset price spiral. Simulations illustrate how the introduction of a financial accelerator significantly reinforces and extends the economic cycles in projections and forecasts, in particular when confronted by a severe shock. Furthermore, monetary policy has a markedly stronger effect in the short and medium term, while the impact of fiscal policy is affected to a relatively small degree as it is more remotely linked to financial markets.     

Simple fair division of a square

Suppose we are given a cake represented by the unit interval to be divided among agents evaluating the pieces of the cake by nonatomic probability measures. It is known that we can divide the unit interval into contiguous and connected pieces and assign them to the agents in such a way that the values of the pieces are equal according to the individual agents measures. Such division is said to be equitable and simple. In this paper we show that an equitable and simple division also exists in the case of dividing two-dimensional cake represented by the unit square. In this case, by simple division we mean dividing the unit square firstly by horizontal cuts, and then partition the resulting rectangles by vertical cuts. We give a method of obtaining a proportional and simple division of this cake. Furthermore, we prove the existence of proportional, equitable and simple division.     

Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily dollar exchange rates

We perform out-of-sample predictions on several dollar exchange rate returns by using time-delay embedding techniques and a local linear predictor. We compared our predictions with those by a mean value predictor. Some of our predictions of the exchange rate returns outperform the predictions of the same series by the mean value predictor. However, these improvements were not statistically significant. Another interesting result in this paper which was obtained by using a recently developed technique of nonlinear dynamics is that all exchange rate return series we tested have a very high embedding dimension. Additionally, evidence indicates that these series are likely generated by high dimensional systems with measurement noise or by high dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems, that is, nonlinear deterministic systems with dynamic noise.     

The Location of Comparative Advantages on the Basis of Fundamentals Only

We propose a new way to locate the comparative advantages of two economies linked by international trade. We construct a competitive benchmark based only on the fundamentals of the two economies: endowments, preferences and technologies. The direction of trade is endogenously determined by a linear program with an input-output core. The factor contents of that trade are compared with factor endowments to test the Heckscher-Ohlin model in the presence of different technologies and preferences. We can also evaluate the gains of free bilateral trade. The model is applied to a customs union between Europe and Canada. The Heckscher-Ohlin factor abundance specialization hypothesis is supported by the data.     

Direct comparison of agent-based models of herding in financial markets

The present paper tests a new model comparison methodology by comparing multiple calibrations of three agent-based models of financial markets on the daily returns of 24 stock market indices and exchange rate series. The models chosen for this empirical application are the herding model of Gilli and Winker (2003), its asymmetric version by Alfarano et al. (2005) and the more recent model by Franke and Westerhoff (2011), which all share a common lineage to the herding model introduced by Kirman (1993). In addition, standard ARCH processes are included for each financial series to provide a benchmark for the explanatory power of the models. The methodology provides a consistent and statistically significant ranking of the three models. More importantly, it also reveals that the best performing model, Franke and Westerhoff, is generally not distinguishable from an ARCH-type process, suggesting their explanatory power on the data is similar.     

On the cost-benefit of the regionalisation of the National Health Service

In this paper we analyse in formal terms the desirability of the regionalisation of a National Health Service. The policy consists of a devolution process, i.e. the increase in the health services provision to be decided by a region and financed by an increase in its revenues. The change is a marginal one, as it regards the part of supply of the health services exceeding a minimum standard, which for purposes of equity is maintained uniform in the national territory. As the central government is responsible for this component of the provision of health care (a federal “mandate”), the level of the said component is chosen by this authority and financed by federal taxation. Moreover, the government also applies an equalisation scheme based on the difference between a standard level of tax revenues and the revenues which the region is deemed able to raise for this purpose. Within the theoretical context of welfare improving reforms with distortionary taxation, we derive two conditions which focus on the regional, as well as the social, convenience of regionalisation. Received: May 5, 1999 / Accepted: January 21, 2000     

基于行为心理理论的审计判断模式构建

审计判断是一个复杂的心智过程,审计人员有多层次的心理需求,有从事审计活动的动机,在从事审计判断时有丰富的心理活动,基于上述研究可构建出审计判断模式。为防治审计判断偏误、提高审计判断的质量,可从行为心理的角度采取以下措施：进行行为心理学学习,丰富专业知识、重视经验积累,建立有效的审计判断激励机制和审计判断约束机制,加强职业道德修养等。     

The Economics of the Criminal Behavior of Young Adults

A bstract This study uses a combination of individual-level and county-level data to estimate an economic model of crime for young adults similar to that used by Becker (1968) and Trumbull (1989). In order to estimate a model of crime in which both individual-level and county-level data are used, it is necessary to take account of the bias introduced by using aggregate-level data in conjunction with individual-level data. In order to eliminate this bias, a technique derived by Moulton (1990) is employed. Results from a logit regression model indicate that race, sex. and peer pressure have statistically significant effects on the probability that a young adult will commit a crime. Results also suggest that police presence, as measured by county-level per capita police expenditures, does not deter young adults from committing crimes.