The benefits of international diversification: Re-examining the effect of market allocation constraints

This paper makes adjustments to the data, methods and perspective as presented in Chiou (2008) to report lower potential benefits from international diversification for U.S. investors during the previously reported 1988–2004 investment period. The extended results for 1988–2014 are also presented. Naive international diversification is not found to provide positive return-to-risk (RR) gains or volatility reducing benefits versus the U.S. market. Portfolios optimized with no short sales and weakened weight constraints on positive market allocations can provide RR gains and volatility reducing benefits. The positive RR benefits from diversification out of the U.S. market portfolio are not found to be statistically significant for both periods measured.     

Impact of leveraged ETF trading on the market quality of component stocks

We investigate the effect of leveraged ETF trading on the trading activity and market quality of their component stocks. The results show that both quoted and effective spreads of component stocks increase about 0.2–3.0 basis points after the inception of leveraged ETFs, while other liquidity measures do not show significant changes. The trading volume of component stocks is positively and significantly correlated with the trading volume of leveraged ETFs, but the volatility of component stocks is not affected by ETF trading either at the daily level or during the last hour of trading. In addition, the volatility of component stocks decreases slightly after ETF inception. These findings do not support the previous claim that the trading of leveraged ETFs increases price volatility of component stocks.     

The relationship between oil prices,the stock market and the exchange rate: Evidence from Mexico

This paper analyzes the variables of oil price, exchange rate and stock market index to explain how they interact with each other in the Mexican economy. The examined period includes monthly data from January 1992 to June 2017. A Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is implemented that includes oil prices, the nominal exchange rate, the Mexican stock market index, and the consumer price index. Results indicate that the exchange rate has a negative and statistically significant effect on the stock market index; this indicates that an appreciation of the exchange rate is related to an increase in the stock market index. It is also found that the consumer price index has a positive effect on the exchange rate and a negative effect on the stock market index. The results also indicate that oil prices are statistically significant against the exchange rate, concluding that an increase in oil prices creates an appreciation of the exchange rate. In addition, the impulse-response functions show that the effects found tend to disappear over time.     

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries

Using data from BRICS countries, we apply the TVP-VAR model to analyze the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on their stock markets and the mechanisms leading to those effects. We find that for BRICS countries, there are similarities as well as differences in the extent, direction, and duration of the effects of exchange rate changes on the stock market. As for the affecting mechanisms, Brazil is almost entirely driven by the financial account, while the current account is dominant for Russia, whereas India, China, and South Africa depend on both mechanisms.     

The impact of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk

We examine the effect of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk derived from DJIA and S&P500 index returns. Consistent with behavioral asset pricing models, we find significant positive response of rational sentiment suggesting greater incentive for rational investors to engage in arbitrage when the compensation for taking risk is greater. Further, an increase in irrational optimism leads to a significant downward movement, but an increase in rational sentiment does not lead to a significant change market price of risk. These results are robust for both market indexes, DJIA and S&P500 and for both individual and institutional investor sentiment.     

Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US

The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines dimensionality reduction, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict excess returns on the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 146 popular macroeconomic and financial variables using different principal component analysis techniques. Second, we estimate Markov-switching models with time-varying transition probabilities using the principal components as predictors. Third, we pool the models in forecast clusters to hedge against model risk and to evaluate the usefulness of different specifications. Our weekly forecasts respond to regime changes in a timely manner to participate in recoveries or to prevent losses. This is also reflected in an improvement of risk-adjusted performance measures as compared to several benchmarks. However, when considering stock market returns, our forecasts do not outperform common benchmarks. Nevertheless, they do add statistical and, in particular, economic value during recessions or in declining markets.     

基于学习风格的高职教育课程体系构建的理论思考

高等职业教育应该贯彻的一个最基本的教育教学原则是因材施教 ,依据高职学生的智力因素和非智力因素 ,选择相应的教学内容 ,采取不同的教育教学策略 ,实现现代高等职业教育“合格”、“胜任”的培养目标。教学内容的选择实质是高职教育课程体系的构建过程 ,其主要依据是学科的发展现状、社会的需求以及学生的特点。其中 ,如何使教学内容更加适合高职学生的特点 ,已经成为高职教育课程体系构建的中心问题。     

The effect of operational slack,diversification, and vertical relatedness on the stock market reaction to supply chain disruptions

This paper empirically examines whether operational slack, business diversification, geographic diversification, and vertical relatedness influence the stock market reaction to supply chain disruptions. The results are based on a sample of 307 supply chain disruptions announced by publicly traded firms during 1987–1998. Our analysis shows that firms with more slack in their supply chain experience less negative stock market reaction. The extent of business diversification has no significant effect on the stock market reaction. Firms that are more geographically diversified experience a more negative stock market reaction. We find that firms with a high degree of vertical relatedness experience a less negative stock market reaction. These results have important implications on how firms design and operate their supply chains to mitigate the negative effect of supply chain disruptions.     

The forced registration of hedge funds in the United States

This article recounts the history of hedge fund regulation in the United States over the last century, including Congressional legislation as well as legal cases mounted both by and against the Securities and Exchange Commission. Traditional arguments for and against hedge fund regulation are discussed. The article argues that neither hedge funds nor their managers should be regulated—whether directly or indirectly. Rather, financial or trusted advisors who recommend these products to investors should bear the regulatory burden.     

The effects of employee stock ownership on stock liquidity: Evidence from the Korean market

This study investigates the relationship between the level of employee stock ownership (ESO) and stock liquidity. Using Korean ESO data, we find that ESO is positively associated with various liquidity measures. Stock-owning employees tend to mitigate information asymmetry to increase their benefits from the transparent market. We also find stronger effects when the firm is not an affiliate of a chaebol family group, and is less monitored by financial analysts, foreign investors, and outside directors. Furthermore, we employ various robustness tests to mitigate potential endogeneity concerns.     

Rational plunging and the option value of sequential investment: The case of petroleum exploration

The potential to invest sequentially in related assets creates a tradeoff between diversification and concentration. Loading a portfolio with correlated assets has the potential to inflate variance, but also creates information spillovers and real options that may augment total return and mitigate variance. We examine this tradeoff in the context of petroleum exploration. Using a simple model of geological dependence, we show that the value of learning options creates incentives for investors to plunge into dependence; i.e., to assemble portfolios of highly correlated exploration prospects. Risk-neutral and risk-averse investors are distinguished not by the plunging phenomenon, but by the threshold level of dependence that triggers such behavior. Aversion to risk does not imply aversion to dependence. Indeed the potential to plunge should be larger for risk-averse investors than for risk-neutral investors. We test the empirical validity of our theory by examining bidding activity in petroleum lease sales. We find significant plunging behavior across a broad sample of oil companies. We also find that privately-held firms pursue even more concentrated (less diversified) prospect portfolios than publicly-held firms—which we attribute to risk aversion rather than size.     

Evaluating factor forecasts for the UK: The role of asset prices

This paper applies a large data set, consisting of 167 monthly time series for the UK, both economic and financial, to simulate out-of-sample predictions of industrial production, inflation, 3-month Treasury Bills, and other variables. Fifteen dynamic factor models that allow forecasting based on large panels of time series are considered. The performances of these factor models are then compared to the following competing models: a simple univariate autoregressive, a vector autoregressive, a leading indicator, and a Phillips curve models. The results show that the best dynamic factor models outperform the competing models in forecasting at 6-, 12-, and 24-month horizons. Thus, the financial markets may have predictive power for the economic activity. This can be a useful tool for central banks and financial institutions, which may use the factor models to construct leading indicators of the economic conditions. In addition, researchers can see a strategic application of factor models.     

The Measurement of Consumption Efficiency Considering the Discrete Choice of Consumers

In this study we propose a mathematical definition of the consumption efficiency of multi-attribute products in the price–quality space. A new model, the discrete Range Adjusted Measure (RAM) model, is suggested as an empirical tool to measure the level of consumption efficiency. We further discuss the effect of consumption efficiency on the innovation incentive. Empirical work is made for the mobile phone market. We expect that the consumption efficiency concept will contribute to the extension of the traditional framework of production efficiency analysis on the one hand and to the understanding of the nature of innovation in a technology-intensive market on the other hand.JEL Classification: C67, D11, D12, D21     

代理成本与内部控制自我评价报告的自愿披露——基于2010年沪市A股上市公司数据

使用2010年沪市A股公司数据,对代理成本与内部控制自我评价报告自愿披露的关系进行实证分析,结果表明内部控制自我评价报告的自愿披露水平与管理费用率负相关,与总资产周转率显著正相关。此外,公司的规模显著正向影响自愿披露水平,资产负债率与公司上市年限显著负向影响自愿披露水平。因此,监管部门有必要强制要求上市公司披露内部控制自我评价报告。