Forest carbon benefits,costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the set aside lands, with maximum annual expenditures of $3 billion. Results indicated that from 1513 to 6837 Tg (Teragrams) of additional carbon (as carbon dioxide equivalent, CO₂e) would be sequestered on U.S. timberlands relative to the baseline case over the next 50 years (30–137 Tg CO₂e annually). These projected amounts of sequestered carbon on timberlands take into account projected increases in timber removal and forest carbon losses on other timberlands (carbon leakage effects). Net effectiveness of carbon reserve scenarios in terms of overall net gain in timberland carbon stocks from 2010 to 2060 ranged from 0.29 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $5/tCO₂e to the landowner (71% leakage), to 0.15 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $15/tCO₂e to the landowner (85% leakage). A policy or program to buy carbon credits from landowners would need to discount additions to the carbon reserve by the estimated amount of leakage. In the scenarios evaluated, the timber set-asides reduced timberland area available for harvest up to 35% and available timber inventory up to 55%, relative to the baseline scenario over the next 50 years, resulting in projected changes in timber prices, harvest levels, and forest product revenues for the forest products sector.     

Carbon mitigation potential of the French forest sector under threat of combined physical and market impacts due to climate change

Objectives(1) To quantify the contribution of the French forest-wood product chain in terms of carbon sequestration and substitution when accounting for both the physical impacts (shifts in tree growth and mortality rates) and the market impacts (increased demand of harvested wood products (HWP)) of climate change (cc) and the subsequent forest managers adaptations; (2) To assess the uncertainty of the impacts on the above carbon balance and on forest allocation; and (3) To assess the role of managers’ expectations toward these future, uncertain but highly anticipated, impacts.MethodologyWe used a bio-economic model of the French Forest Sector (FFSM++) that is able to consider and integrate: (a) the effects of climate change over forest dynamics; (b) forest investment decisions (among groups of species) according to expected profitability; and (c) market effects in terms of regionalised supply, consumption and trade of HWP, depending on the forest resource stocks and international prices. By including both forest dynamics and forest products, we can evaluate the carbon balance taking the following elements into consideration: (a) carbon sequestered in live and dead biomass in the forest; (b) carbon sequestered in HWP; (c) carbon substituted when wood is used in place of fossil fuels or more energy-intensive materials; and (d) carbon released by forest operations.ResultsWhen the model is run at constant conditions for the next century, the average carbon potential of French forests is 66.2–125.3 Mt CO₂ y⁻¹, depending on whether we consider only inventoried wood resources, HWP pools and direct energy substitution, or if we also account for the carbon stored in tree branches and roots and if we consider the more indirect, but also largely more subjective, material substitution. These values correspond to 18.3% and 34.7%, respectively, of the French 2010 emissions (361 Mt CO₂). However, when we consider both the probable increment of coniferous mortality and changes in forest growth, plus the rise in HWP demand worldwide, the average sequestration rate of the French forest decreases by 6.6–5.8% to 61.8–118.0 Mt CO₂ y⁻¹. Running partial scenarios, we can assess the relative interplay of these two factors, where the price factor increases the HWP stock while decreasing the forest stocks (where the latter effect prevails), while the physical impact of climate change reduces both, but to a lesser extent. Considering short-sighted forest managers, whose behaviour is based uniquely on the observed conditions at the time decisions are made, we obtain a limited effect of the overall carbon balance but a relatively large impact on the area allocation of broadleaved vs. coniferous species.     

The potential and cost of increasing forest carbon sequestration in Sweden

This paper examines the potential and the cost of promoting forest carbon sequestration through a tax/subsidy to land owners for reducing/increasing carbon storage in their forests. We use a partial equilibrium model based on intertemporal optimization to estimate the impacts of carbon price (the tax/subsidy rate) on timber harvest volume and price in different time periods and on the change of forest carbon stock over time. The results show that a higher carbon price would lead to higher forest carbon stocks. The tax/subsidy induced annual net carbon sequestration is declining over time. The net carbon sequestration during 2015–2050 would increase by 30.2 to 218.3 million tonnes of CO₂, when carbon price increases from 170 SEK to 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The associated cost, in terms of reduced total benefits of timber and other non-timber goods, ranges from 80 SEK to 105.8 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The change in carbon sequestration (as compared with the baseline case) beyond 2050 is small when carbon price is 680 SEK per tonne of CO₂ or lower. With a carbon price of 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂, carbon sequestration will increase by 70 million tonnes of CO₂ from the baseline level during 2050-2070, and by 64 million tonnes during 2070–2170.     

Combining an inter-sectoral carbon tax with sectoral mitigation policies: Impacts on the French forest sector

As France works out its plan to tackle climate change issues, questions are arising in the forest sector as to how sectoral mitigation programs such as those designed to enhance fuelwood consumption or to stimulate in-forest carbon sequestration may coincide with an inter-sectoral program such as an economy-wide carbon tax. This paper provides insights into this question by exploring the impacts of (1) a combination of a carbon tax and a fuelwood policy, and (2) a combination of a carbon tax and a sequestration policy on (i) the economy of the forest sector, and (ii) the dynamics of the forest resource. To do this, we used a modified version of the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM) and carried out simulations on a 2020 time horizon. Basing our analysis on the fuelwood sector, we showed that wood producers always benefit from the combination of a carbon tax with either a fuelwood policy or a sequestration policy at the national level. Conversely, and although it favors wood products instead of non-wood substitutes, a carbon tax always decreases consumer surpluses by increasing wood product prices. As a consequence, the combination of a carbon tax with sectoral policies is likely to raise questions about the political economy of the mitigation program. This is particularly true in the case of a combination of a carbon tax with a sequestration policy, which already decreases consumer surpluses. We eventually showed that by increasing transport costs between domestic regions, the carbon tax reallocates production patterns over French territory which could lead to the necessity of a regional breakdown of policy-mixes in the forest sector.     

黑龙江省产业低碳化发展策略分析

随着产业结构调整与转型,黑龙江省的经济发展受到资源的有限性影响越来越大,经济发展出现了低迷,但随之而来的环境污染治理和生态保护给黑龙江省的经济发展带来了机遇和调整,因此,发展低碳经济,加快产业结构转型,加大高耗能产业产能控制,加强扶持高新技术产业,促进黑龙江省经济健康可持续发展成为亟待解决的问题。     

基于碳排放强度的低碳经济发展阶段划分研究

低碳经济评价与其所处发展阶段之间存在密切联系。文章借助碳排放强度与碳排放总量两个指标,将低碳经济发展过程划分为无脱钩阶段、相对脱钩阶段、绝对脱钩阶段和零碳排放阶段四个阶段,并对不同阶段的指标变化特征进行量化描述。在我国当前正努力发展低碳经济的背景下,建议应以此划分结果为基础,针对所处的不同阶段采取不同的措施进行引导,并选择合适的测度指标和方法开展我国低碳经济评价。     

林业在发展低碳经济中的作用研究

在深入分析低碳经济的基础上,论述了林业是发展低碳经济的有效途径,并指出了森林碳汇在发展低碳经济中的巨大作用,同时从国际规则等方面提出了发展森林碳汇的难点。     

我国低碳创新系统构建与发展对策的辩证思考

最近几年以来,"低碳经济"一词已经变得妇孺皆知,低碳经济的发展已经被大多数国家提上了日程,低碳创新系统也都在不同程度的建立和完善中。低碳,已经在人们的生产生活中一步步的渗透。然而,由于资金的掣肘,技术的落后,人才的缺乏,政策的不完善等原因,低碳还没有发挥出其应有的作用。本文简单阐述了低碳系统的内容与概念,并加以辩证的思考,得出了构建低碳系统是社会发展、经济转型的必要选择,并针对我国在低碳系统构建中的现状与问题,提出了一些构建低碳创新系统的建议和对策。     

湛江海洋经济低碳化发展水平综合评价研究

参考国内外相关标准,构建了海洋经济低碳化发展水平评价指标体系,并对选取的18个指标运用熵值法和模糊一致性矩阵进行低碳化发展水平评价,为我国沿海各省市海洋经济低碳化发展水平的有效性评价提供有益借鉴,也为政府相关部门提供决策参考。     

我国发展大型海藻养殖碳汇产业的条件与政策建议

本文简要分析了我国大型海藻养殖业的发展现状,探讨了我国2000年以来海藻养殖种类、产量和面积的变动情况;分析了我国海带、紫菜、江蓠、麒麟菜等主要养殖海藻种类的碳含量,估算出我国大型海藻养殖业碳汇规模达到34.79万吨/年。大型海藻养殖具有碳含量高、可计量、养殖过程可控制等优点,可以作为一种新型的碳汇产业。     

Dual discounting in climate change mitigation in the forest sector

The efficiency of potential climate change mitigation is predicated on future costs and benefits and thus heavily influenced by the discount scheme. Dual discounting involves discounting carbon and monetary values differently; stand level modeling efforts show that it improves the profitability of afforestation projects. However, these stand level results may not hold across other age classes and stocking levels. Using a partial, spatial equilibrium model of the Norwegian forest sector, we analyze the impacts of a dual discounting scheme on climate change mitigation efforts. Dual discounting results in less mitigation efforts in the first decades but substantially higher long-term mitigation efforts.     

Exploring under-utilised low carbon land resources from multiple perspectives: Case studies on regencies in Kalimantan

Mobilising under-utilised low carbon (ULC) land resources for future agricultural production can help reducing pressure on high carbon stock land from agricultural expansion, particularly for deforestation hotspots like Kalimantan. However, the potential of ULC land is not yet well understood, especially at regency level which is the key authority for land-use planning in Indonesia. Therefore, this study explored ULC land resources for all regencies in Kalimantan. By analysing information from six monitoring domains, a range of indicators were derived to provide insights into the physical area of ULC land from various perspectives. It was found that these indicators show largely different values at regency level. For example, regency Pulang Pisau has a substantial area of ‘temporarily unused agricultural land’ but a very limited area of ‘low carbon land’ – this implies that not all ‘temporarily unused agricultural land’ is ready for future exploitation when assessing from different aspects. As a result of such diverging indicators, using a single indicator to quantify available ULC land resources is risky as it can either be an over- or under-estimation. Thus, ULC land resources were further explored in the present paper by taking four regencies as case studies and comparing all the indicators, supported with relevant literature and evidence collected from narrative interviews. This information was used to estimate ULC land area by possible land-use strategies. For example, Gunung Mas was found to have a large area of low carbon land which is not occupied and might be suitable for oil palm deployment. However, the major limitation is that physical estimates cannot provide a complete picture of ‘real’ land availability without considering a broader range of socio-economic factors (e.g. labour availability). Therefore, physical land area indicators from different domains must be combined with other qualitative and quantitative information especially the socio-economic factors underlying land under-utilisation to obtain better estimates.     

蓝色碳汇：海洋低碳经济新思路

“森林碳汇”的减碳功能已广被人知,但是海洋的碳汇功能却鲜为人知。本文就海洋碳汇即蓝色碳汇,从其概念到发展的意义,从发展路径到产业链发展,作了比较具体而详细的介绍,并指出：蓝色碳汇是成本较低、技术可行、又可带来多种效益的减碳手段,不仅可以改善高碳环境,而且有益于发展我国的蓝色经济,可带来“双赢”效果。本文建议把发展蓝色碳汇,作为我国发展海洋低碳经济的新思路和新方向,给予大力支持。     

Consequences of carbon offset payments for the global forest sector

Long-term effects of policies to induce carbon storage in forests were projected with the Global Forest Products Model. Offset payments for carbon sequestered in forest biomass of $15–$50/t CO₂e applied in all countries increased CO₂ sequestration in world forests by 5–14 billion tons from 2009 to 2030. Limiting implementation to developed countries exported environmental damage from North to South, as developing countries harvested more, decreasing their stored CO₂e. Substantially more CO₂e was sequestered by allocating a given budget to all countries rather than to developed countries only. As offset payments increased wood prices relatively more than they decreased production, timber revenues generally increased. In the few countries with timber revenues losses they were more than compensated by the offset payments.     

Methodology to calculate the carbon footprint of household land use in the urban planning stage

The growing concerns of climate change require implementing measures to quantify, to monitor and to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Nonetheless, most of the measures available are not easy to define or execute because they rely on current emissions and have a corrective character. To address this issue, a methodology to characterize GHG emissions that allows implementing preventive measures is proposed in this paper. The methodology is related to household urban planning procedures and considers urban infrastructures to characterize GHG emissions and to execute preventive measures based on sustainability design criteria. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a set of medium-sized municipalities with average GHG emissions from 6,822.32 kgCO_2eq/year to 5,913.79 kgCO_2eq/year for every residential unit. The results indicate that the greatest pollutant source is transport, especially in the issuance of street network design, followed by gas and electricity consumption. The average undevelopable land area required for the complete GHG emissions capture amounts to 3.42 m² of undevelopable land for every m² of urbanizable land and 9.02 m² of undevelopable land for every m² of built land.     

The impact of forest management plans on trees and carbon: Modeling a decade of harvesting data in Cameroon

By 2010, about 25% (180 million ha) of The International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) producer countries’ permanent forest estate was being managed using an approved forest management plan (FMP). While the existence of a FMP is often used as evidence of sustainable forest management (SFM), State officials mandated to monitor and verify FMPs’ implementation often lack the technical knowledge and political incentives to assess the changes that have been introduced, notably in terms of harvested volumes and species. Among tropical timber producers, Cameroon is considered to be exemplary for its progressive forest regulatory framework. Here we aim to estimate for the first time in sub-Saharan Africa the causal impact of the implementation of FMPs on harvested volumes, species and carbon stocks. We do so by using a 12-year (1998–2009) unbalanced longitudinal data set of a detailed, official harvesting inventory of 81 concessions in Cameroon. Results provide evidence to the theoretical expectations that for many years many practitioners have had on the implementation of SFM, i.e. that FMPs show a substantial opportunity to reduce carbon emissions from forest while presenting logging companies with acceptable financial trade-offs. We explore the technical and political reasons for our findings and conclude that these analyses are important for countries that are underwriting carbon-related schemes in which they propose to reduce their emissions through the effective implementation of SFM. We also demonstrate that producer countries do record useful information that, when effectively used, can help them to inform their policies and improve their sustainable development strategies.     

森林碳汇价值实现对林地效益影响的路径及机理分析

森林在应对气候变化中具有特殊的地位和重要作用,国际社会努力为实现森林碳汇价值提供途径,探讨森林碳汇价值实现对林地效益可能产生的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文在阐述森林碳汇价值实现对林地效益影响路径的基础上,分析了在森林碳汇价值实现的情境下,森林最佳轮伐期的变化情况,以及木材收益和碳汇收益的变化,最后得出林地效益的变化情况。     

The disappearing chain of responsibility: Legitimacy challenges in the political governance of Finnish Forest and Park Service

This article analyses the consequences of institutional and organisational arrangements for the legitimacy of the governance of Finnish public forests. It focuses on normative legitimacy, which comprises input legitimacy (accountability), throughput legitimacy (power relationships, transparency and inclusiveness) and output legitimacy (problem-solving capacity). These components, and the challenges involved in them, are analysed in relation to the governance of the Finnish Forest and Park Service. It is a hybrid agency which combines business economic tasks with broader societal duties related to public forests. The article draws on the relevant laws, parliamentary reports and comments, policy and planning documents, as well as interviews with MPs, government officials and agency staff. The discrepancy between written regulations and policies on the one hand, and the actual governance practices and rationalities that guide informants’ interpretations and implementation of the regulations on the other, constitutes (in addition to the regulatory vagueness) the key challenge to the system's legitimacy. The Finnish case shows that assigning to Parliament a central formal role in the governance of public forests may serve more as window-dressing than providing genuine legitimacy to the decisions being made, as its actual role is dependent on how – and by whom – such decisions are prepared. The results highlight the importance of inclusiveness and transparency in the governance process; and of concrete, measurable criteria and indicators for each policy goal, against which performance may be assessed on a regular basis.