Does societal trust make managers more trustworthy?

This study examines the effects of shareholders' trust on managers' bad news hoarding. Using a large sample of listed firms from 33 countries, we find that firms domiciled in countries with higher societal trust have higher stock price crash risk, which indicates that managers may exploit shareholders' trust to conceal bad news and that a low-trust society can be beneficial in restraining management misconduct due to the monitoring undertaken by low-trust outsiders. We also find that the positive association between societal trust and crash risk is less pronounced (1) when low-trust foreign shareholders have greater control over a country's firms, in line with the view that low-trust shareholders' concerns about being expropriated by managers and the consequent strong efforts at monitoring; (2) when long-term investors have greater control over a country's firms, suggesting that long-term investors playing a complementary role in monitoring corporate governance; and (3) when a country has strong formal institutions, such as investor protection and financial accounting systems, suggesting that robust formal institutions are substitute for social norms.     

Does non-interest income make banks more risky? Retail- versus investment-oriented banks

In this paper, we show that the impact of non-interest income on bank risk differs between retail- and investment-oriented banks. More specifically, while retail-oriented banks such as savings, cooperative and other banks that focus on lending and deposit-taking services become significantly more stable (in the sense of having a higher Z-score) if they increase their share of non-interest income, investment-oriented banks become significantly more risky. They do not only generate a higher share of their income from non-traditional activities, but also engage in significantly different activities from retail-oriented banks. This might limit the potential benefits to investment-oriented banks of diversifying into non-interest income. Overall, therefore, our paper implies that it is important to distinguish between retail- and investment-oriented banks when drawing general conclusions regarding the impact of non-interest income on bank risk.     

Does IFRS make analysts more efficient in using fundamental information included in financial statements?

This paper investigates the efficiency with which analysts use fundamental signals when forecasting one-year-ahead change in earnings per share (EPS) in Australian and European contexts and the impact of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on this efficiency. Results reveal that adoption of IFRS seems to increase analysts’ awareness of fundamental signals useful for predicting future changes in EPS. However, overall, analysts remain only as efficient as they were pre-IFRS in using these fundamental signals. While their efficiency in using the earnings signal decreased, it increased for non-earnings signals in the post-compared to pre-IFRS period. Furthermore, analysts substantially underutilise the earnings signal in common compared to code law countries. These findings are likely to be of interest to analysts and market participants when making forecasts and investment decisions, and to standard setters and regulators in evaluating the impact of accounting standards.     

Does sustainable investing reduce portfolio risk? A multilevel analysis

This study complements and extends prior research on the risk mitigation role of sustainable investing. We use a continuous measure of funds' sustainability traits, rather than a categorical approach, and assess impact on risk directly rather than by looking at fund performance in up versus down markets. We find that sustainable investing plays a significant role in mitigating total, systematic, and idiosyncratic risk of equity funds, even after controlling for other fund characteristics. Further evidence indicates that the explanation for the risk reduction role of sustainable funds largely runs through traits of the firms held in the funds.     

Conditional portfolio allocation: Does aggregate market liquidity matter?

This paper investigates how aggregate liquidity influences optimal portfolio allocations across various US characteristic portfolios. We consider short-term allocation problems, with single and multiple risky assets, and use the nonparametric approach of Brandt (1999) to directly express optimal portfolio weights as functions of aggregate liquidity shocks. We find, first, that the effect of aggregate liquidity is positive and decreasing with the investment horizon. Second, at daily and weekly horizons, this effect is weaker on allocations in large stocks and gets stronger as we move toward small stocks, regardless of the other stock characteristics, suggesting that liquidity is the main concern of very short-term investors. Third, conditional allocations in risky assets decrease and exhibit shifts toward more liquid assets as aggregate liquidity worsens. Overall, conditioning on aggregate liquidity yields empirical results that are consistent with the so-called flight-to-safety and flight-to-liquidity episodes. Finally, we propose a simple tactical investment strategy and show how aggregate liquidity information can be exploited to enhance the out-of-sample performance of long-term strategies.     

Does economics and management education make managers more cautious? Evidence from R&D of Chinese listed firms

This paper uses the innovation data of Chinese listed firms for 2015–2019 to investigate whether and how executives with economics and management educations influence firm innovation. We find that executives with economics and management educations are characterized by conservatism and risk avoidance and their firms undertake less innovative activity than other firms. This conclusion remains robust after excluding potential reverse causality. Further analysis finds that executives with an educational background in economics and management adopt a more conservative attitude toward risk when they have a low shareholding ratio or face high performance pressure. Moreover, a mechanism analysis shows that executives with an educational background economics and management are more radical and less conservative in their fields of expertise, i.e., are not blindly conservative. Finally, we determine that non-financial knowledge compensate for some of the inhibitory effects that economic and management educational backgrounds have on innovation.     

Does operating risk affect portfolio risk? Evidence from insurers' securities holding

This study empirically examines, in the setting of insurance companies, the hypothesis that investors facing more operating risk may behave as if they were more risk averse in investment decisions. Specifically, we study how operating risk from underwriting insurance policies affects insurers' risk taking behavior in their portfolio investments. We find that insurers with higher volatilities in underwriting incomes and cash flows are more conservative in their financial investment risk taking – they have lower credit risk exposure in their bond investments, as well as lower portfolio weights on risky bonds and equities. Further, insurers' portfolio risk exposure is sensitive to the risk of permanent underwriting income shocks but insensitive to the risk of transitory shocks. Transitory operating risk, however, is significantly related to portfolio risk when insurers face tight financing constraints. Our findings suggest a substitutive effect of operating risk on investment decisions by financial institutions.     

How to build a factor portfolio: Does the allocation strategy matter?

Factor-based allocation embraces the idea of factors, as opposed to asset classes, as the ultimate building blocks of investment portfolios. We examine whether there is a superior way of combining factors in a portfolio and provide a comparison of factor-based allocation strategies within a multiple testing framework. Factor-based allocation is profitable beyond exploiting genuine risk premia, even when applying multiple testing corrections. Investment portfolios can be efficiently diversified using factor-based allocation strategies, as demonstrated by robust economic performance over various economic scenarios. The naïve equally weighted factor portfolio, albeit simple and cost-efficient, cannot be outperformed by more sophisticated allocation strategies.     

Access to internal capital,creditor rights and corporate borrowing: Does group affiliation matter?

We examine whether the effect of increased creditor rights on corporate borrowing depends on firm's access to internal capital. By exploiting a creditor protection reform in India, empirical outcomes strongly indicate that strengthening of creditor rights leads to increased corporate borrowing among firms that have constrained access to internal capital compared to business group affiliated firms, which have relatively easier access to internal capital. Further, the increased corporate borrowing by firms with constrained access to internal capital, in the post-reform period, is associated with a greater expansion of real investments, improved operational performance, and better market valuation. Taken together, these findings indicate that expanding creditor rights may aid in improving allocative efficiency.     

What drives international portfolio flows?

Understanding what drives international portfolio flows has important policy implications for countries wishing to exert some control on the size, direction and volatility of the flows. This paper empirically assesses the relative contribution of common (push) and country-specific (pull) factors to the variation of bond and equity flows from the US to 55 other countries. Using a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model, we find that more than 80% of the variation in bond and equity flows is due to push factors from the US to other countries. Hence global economic forces seem to prevail over domestic economic forces in explaining movements in international portfolio flows. The dynamics of push and pull factors can be partially explained by US and foreign economic fundamentals.     

Does executive portfolio structure affect risk management? CEO risk-taking incentives and corporate derivatives usage

This paper extends the investigation of the effect of managerial motives on hedging policy. I utilize a proxy variable that incorporates CEO incentives to increase risk relative to incentives to increase stock price. The variable is directly measured using observed characteristics of CEO portfolios of stock and option holdings. Furthermore, CEO risk-taking incentives are modeled as a choice variable to eliminate the simultaneity bias of modeling risk-taking incentives as an exogenous variable. If modeled as a simultaneous system of equations, a strong negative link between CEO risk-taking incentives and the amount of derivative holdings exists. This result is consistent with the notion that derivatives are used for hedging purposes. Both the characteristics of stock and option holdings are important in determining cross-sectional differences in corporate derivative holdings.     

What expenditure does Anglosphere foreign borrowing fund?

This paper examines the extent to which foreign borrowing funds private investment, consumption and government expenditure in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand (the Anglosphere), advanced economies which have been the world's largest international borrowers since 1990. Using a bivariate predictive regression model, we estimate the relative importance of these expenditure aggregates as predictors of their external deficits, and hence foreign borrowing. Overall, based on quarterly macroeconomic data for the period 1990–2011, the evidence suggests that foreign borrowing has not financed higher household consumption in these economies over recent decades, with the possible exception of the United States. While results concerning government spending are mixed due to policy reaction, business cycle and public-private saving offset effects, strong results for private investment augur well for the sustainability of this grouping's foreign borrowing.     

Does audit quality matter more for firms with high investment opportunities?

This paper examines the association of firms with high investment opportunities with high quality audits (proxied by Big 5 auditors) and whether that association results in a lower likelihood of earnings management. Firms with high investment opportunities may demand high quality audits for curbing earnings management. This is because they have more flexibility in the provision of discretionary accruals that arises from the attendant operating uncertainty which creates particular monitoring problems. Big 5 auditors will provide high quality audits that will constrain earnings management for firms with high investment opportunities because the risk of losing (and hence the likelihood of maintaining) auditor independence is higher. Results show the following. First, firms with high investment opportunities are more likely to hire Big 5 auditors than firms with low investment opportunities. Second, firms with high investment opportunities are more likely to have more discretionary accruals but this relationship is weaker when they have Big 5 auditors. These results are robust to various sensitivity tests.     

When can you immunize a bond portfolio?

This paper presents a condition equivalent to the existence of a Riskless Shadow Asset that guarantees a minimum return when the asset prices are convex functions of interest rates or other state variables. We apply this lemma to immunize default-free and option-free coupon bonds and reach three main conclusions. First, we give a solution to an old puzzle: why do simple duration matching portfolios work well in empirical studies of immunization even though they are derived in a model inconsistent with equilibrium and shifts on the term structure of interest rates are not parallel, as assumed? Second, we establish a clear distinction between the concepts of immunized and maxmin portfolios. Third, we develop a framework that includes the main results of this literature as special cases. Next, we present a new strategy of immunization that consists in matching duration and minimizing a new linear dispersion measure of immunization risk.     

When do jumps matter for portfolio optimization?

We consider the continuous-time portfolio optimization problem of an investor with constant relative risk aversion who maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth. The risky asset follows a jump-diffusion model with a diffusion state variable. We propose an approximation method that replaces the jumps by a diffusion and solve the resulting problem analytically. Furthermore, we provide explicit bounds on the true optimal strategy and the relative wealth equivalent loss that do not rely on quantities known only in the true model. We apply our method to a calibrated affine model. Our findings are threefold: Jumps matter more, i.e. our approximation is less accurate, if (i) the expected jump size or (ii) the jump intensity is large. Fixing the average impact of jumps, we find that (iii) rare, but severe jumps matter more than frequent, but small jumps.     

Which demands affect optimal international portfolio choices?

This study analyzes the asset allocations of simple international portfolios that include domestic risky assets, foreign risky assets, and domestic risk-free bonds, through a theoretical analysis. A close-form solution for the optimal holding rates is derived, and can be further sub-divided into three categories of demand: speculative demand, diversified demand, and hedging demands. We carefully explore the essential problem of identifying the underlying reasons for asset allocations, which in turn allows us to answer the question of which of these demands are critical in influencing holding changes.     

Investment and financing constraints in China: Does working capital management make a difference?

We use a panel of over 116,000 Chinese firms of different ownership types over the period 2000–2007 to analyze the linkages between investment in fixed and working capital and financing constraints. We find that those firms characterized by high working capital display high sensitivities of investment in working capital to cash flow (WKS) and low sensitivities of investment in fixed capital to cash flow (FKS). We then construct and analyze firm-level FKS and WKS measures and find that, despite severe external financing constraints, those firms with low FKS and high WKS exhibit the highest fixed investment rates. This suggests that an active management of working capital may help firms to alleviate the effects of financing constraints on fixed investment.     

Equity market response to natural disasters: Does firm's corporate social responsibility make difference?

This study investigates the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in explaining firms' stock performance in the wake of natural disasters in the United States. Using event study and multivariate regression analyses, we find that market performance of CSR firms is better than that of non-CSR firms when such disasters occur. We also highlight the importance of environmentally friendly practices in driving the performance of CSR firms. Our results indicate that firms practicing environmental CSR are more resilient to such disasters than nonenvironmental CSR firms. Cross-sectional analyses show that such positive market reaction of CSR firms is more pronounced when firms have low financial constraints, low information asymmetry, and high social capital.     

Does reinforcement learning outperform deep learning and traditional portfolio optimization models in frontier and developed financial markets?

Advancements in machine learning have opened up a wide range of new possibilities for using advanced computer algorithms, such as reinforcement learning in portfolio risk management. However, very little evidence has been provided on the superior performance of reinforcement learning models over traditional optimization models following the mean-variance framework in different financial market settings. This study uses two experiments with data from the Vietnamese and U.S. securities markets to justify whether advanced machine learning models could outperform traditional portfolios' cumulative returns while optimizing the Sharpe ratio. The results suggest that reinforcement learning consistently outperforms the established methods and benchmarks in both experiments, even when using a very similar degree of diversification in portfolio construction and the same input data. This study confirms the ability of reinforcement learning to provide dynamic responses to market conditions and redefine the risk-return standard in the financial system.