Policy responses to an overheated housing market: Credit tightening versus transaction taxes

Among Asian economies, Hong Kong has experienced the highest real growth in house prices since the 2010s. Two macroprudential measures, namely credit tightening (loan-to-value ratio cap) and transaction taxes (stamp duty), were introduced to cool down the overheated housing market. This study examines and compares their effectiveness based on a set of constant-quality house price indices. Through an error correction model, we find that credit tightening was able to curb house price growth in the high-price segment, while transaction taxes could not. An explanation is that the exemptions from transaction taxes for those with genuine housing needs could be abused by other market participants. It is easier for buyers to exploit the exemptions to get around the stamp duty than to manipulate the property valuation for mortgage lending. The implication is that the effectiveness of macroprudential measures hinges on whether compliance or exemption can be easily monitored and enforced.     

Loan-to-value policy in a bubble-creation economy

This paper provides a theoretical analysis of macroprudential policy in the form of loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions in a bubble-creation economy. Such policy measures have been used intensively in Asia to deal with credit and property price boom-bust cycles while the effectiveness remains unclear, especially the country-specific cases. We find that the effect on investment and size of bubbles depends on the degree of financial development. Specifically, restrictive LTV policies tend to be more effective in dampening asset-price bubbles in economies that have a high degree of financial depth. High (low) financial depth implies that bubbles originally crowd out (in) investment, so that implementation of LTV policies causes bubbles to decrease (remain unchanged). These might explain some mixed empirical results of LTV policy on dampening asset-price growth.     

Chinese housing market and bank credit

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of housing prices using the province-level panel data that covers all the regions in China for the period 1999–2015. The bank credit is the primary determinant of housing prices. Remarkably, a one-percentage-point increase in the growth of bank credit leads to a subsequent appreciation in the growth of the housing price by 0.281 %. The sensitivity of bank credit varies across subcategories of buildings, and between the province-level analysis and the city-level analysis.     

The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?

In recent years, emerging Asian economies have experienced (i) large capital inflows, especially a surge in portfolio inflows, and (ii) an appreciation of asset prices such as stocks, land, and nominal and real exchange rates. We empirically investigate the effects of capital inflows on asset prices by employing a panel VAR model. The empirical results suggest that capital inflows indeed have contributed to asset price appreciation in the region, although capital inflow shocks explain a relatively small part of asset price fluctuations.     

东亚金融一体化的动态及其收益

近年来，东亚一系列区域金融合作引起了学术界对地区金融一体化现状和收益的极大兴趣。文章基于价格和数量的测度考察了东亚地区金融一体化的程度：抛补利差和股权溢价的β收敛结果表明，危机之前东亚金融市场的全球和区域一体化并行，但在近几年，区域一体化趋势更强劲，超过了全球一体化；金融引力模型的结果表明，东亚主要的跨境金融投资者的区域内金融资产持有量比金融引力模型预测的水平更大。此外，面板回归确定了较高的金融一体化作为更广泛的金融发展的关键组成部分，会显著降低东亚国家对发达国家的经常账户失衡，因此，区域层面的金融一体化可以作为加强东亚国家的增长来源和提高经济弹性的重要政策路径。     

产业结构变迁对房地产价格的影响研究

以我国2004-2016 年的相关面板数据为样本数据,运用SYS-GMM 估计从产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化两个维度分析产业结构变迁对房价的影响,同时按房地产市场与经济发展水平指标对样本进行聚类分析,考察产业结构变迁对房价的区际差异化影响。研究表明：利用全国数据与分区域数据均得出产业结构变迁对房地产价格存在显著正向影响的结论,但各区域之间产业结构变迁对房价的影响存在一定的区域差异;产业结构合理化程度和高级化程度的变动对房价的影响强度在经济发达地区明显强于经济不发达地区。根据理论分析和实证结果从因城施策、租购并举、财税政策调整与人力资本提升四方面提出建议。     

The Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies for the South African Economy

We investigate the optimal design and effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in promoting macroeconomic (price) and financial stability for the South African economy. We develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a housing market, a banking sector and the role of macroprudential and monetary policies. Based on the parameter estimates from the estimation, we conduct an optimal rule analysis and an efficient policy frontier analysis, and compare the dynamics of the model under different policy regimes. We find that a policy regime that combines a standard monetary policy rule and a macroprudential policy rule delivers a more stable economic system with price and financial stability. A policy regime that combines an augmented monetary policy (policy rate reacts to financial conditions) with macroprudential policy is better at attenuating the effects of financial shocks, but at a much higher cost of price instability. Our findings suggest that monetary policy should focus solely on its primary objective of price stability and let macroprudential policy facilitate financial stability on its own.     

Four‐G Episode and the elevated risks

Complacency and a false perception that markets will correct imbalances during two decades of ‘Great Moderation’ led to ‘Global Imbalances’. The low interest rates and a lack of proper oversight, combined with a perception that housing prices will always move north, brought the sub‐prime crisis in the USA and the subsequent ‘Global Financial Crisis’ and European crisis. The Quantitative Easing policy in advanced economies (AE) created an even more permissive global liquidity. The externality affecting emerging markets (EM) took the form of massive capital inflows, first channelled through banks where the global banks‐mostly headquartered in Europe‐played a significant role and then through capital market with fund managers being the protagonist. The augmented liquidity spurred growth in EM but also elevated the risk of financial instability. Capital flows reversal, slower growth and less benign external conditions have put EM in a quandary. The uncertainty is heightened by a non‐synchronised monetary policy in AE (‘Great Divergence’). To the extent that standard policies have become ineffective, and to defend from externality caused by AE's unilateral policy (financial nationalism), it is argued that EM can put a damper on the dangerous component of capital inflows. As part of macroprudential policy, such a measure is equivalent with discouraging risky behaviour to prevent financial instability and worsening income inequality.     

“大水漫灌”还是“精准滴灌”:基于时-频域动态视角下房价调控机制研究

基于时-频域动态视角采用小波分析模型,文章结合高频序列和低频数据在同一框架内研究总量货币政策、结构性信贷政策和房价波动三者之间不同时期的动态影响关系,并进一步甄别供需调控对房价的异质性影响。实证发现,作为房价调控的手段,结构性信贷要优于总量货币政策,而结构性信贷的影响机制是,中期时供给端调控存在非对称性,长期和超长期需求端优于供给端调控,这表明需求结构性信贷政策+总量货币政策工具的调控效果更佳。因此,应用价值体现在遏制房价的过程中,政府应该让"大水漫灌"式的总量货币政策用于"事前预防",而让"精准滴灌"式的结构性信贷政策用于"事后控制",在不同的时-频域中以前者为辅后者为主交替或协调使用,以此防止房地产市场泡沫累积而爆发风险。     

Infrastructure Bond Markets Development in Asia: Challenges and Solutions

To sustain economic growth momentum, Asia needs to continue investing heavily in infrastructure such as roads, ports, and power plants. Financing the region’s huge demand for infrastructure investments is an essential issue for policy-makers across the region. Against the backdrop of expanding fiscal burdens of Asian governments and more stringent capital requirements on bank lending, local currency bonds can serve as an alternative for infrastructure financing in Asia. In this paper, we use empirical analysis to identify the major determinants of infrastructure bond market development. Evidence indicates that an economy’s size is positively related to infrastructure bond market development. Furthermore, we find that Project Bond Initiative, a European Union initiative, contributed significantly to infrastructure development in Europe. The implication for Asian policy-makers is that deepening regional integration of Asian bond markets would help Asian economies to reach an efficient economic scale to foster infrastructure bond market and policy measures in the forms of credit enhancement would facilitate issuance of infrastructure bonds.     

Determinants of Housing Prices and Bubble Detection: Evidence from Seven Advanced Economies

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between residential property prices and the business cycle for seven advanced Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies over the period 2002–2015 using quarterly data. To this end, panel data and time series methodologies are adopted as a means of providing a contextual framework on the extant relationship. The panel methodological framework explores the interaction between economic fundamentals and financial variables while the use of time series methodologies developed by Phillips et al. (2011 and 2015) provide novel evidence on the detection of property price bubbles that have been manifested in each individual country of the sample. In particular, the short-run dynamic panel framework provides a robust exploratory platform thus, shedding light on the determinants of property prices (i.e. real gross domestic product, bank credit growth, long-term bond yields and real effective exchange rate) whilst the bubble detection methodologies provide evidence of the impact of credit-driven economies on the propagation of housing booms which can serve as warning signals of the potential formation of housing bubbles.     

城镇化、劳动力转移与物价

从城镇化、劳动力转移的角度看,我国物价表现出的食品与住房价格持续上涨的结构性上涨是城镇化和工业化阶段的必然现象,但与各阶层的贫富差距存在很高的相关性,只有倚重财税政策和产业政策影响财富分配和资本、劳动力的产业分配,充分发挥信贷政策的结构调整功能,才能有效地控制物价。     

Foreign capital flows and economic growth in East Asian countries

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the effect of various types of capital flow on the growth process of the East Asian countries, including China. The empirical analysis was based on dynamic panel data and we found; first, that domestic savings contribute positively to long-term economic growth. Second, we confirmed that FDI is growth enhancing and that its impact is felt both in the short and long run. Additionally, FDI influence on growth is much higher than domestic savings. Third, short-term capital inflow has adverse effect on the long-term as well as short-term growth prospects and it appears to be sensitive to long-term capital inflows. Fourth, long-term debt has positive effect on growth but its effect does somewhat disappear in the long-term. By and large, the observed positive contribution of FDI in the growth process of East Asian economies is a robust finding. From policy perspective, the evidence convincingly suggests that countries that are successful in attracting FDI can finance more investments and grow faster than those that deter FDI.     

动态随机一般均衡模型视角下的预期冲击与住房价格波动

本文通过建立加入金融摩擦的消息推动下的经济周期模型得出房产税试点的消息冲击,预期紧缩的个人抵押贷款政策和预期紧缩的企业信贷政策均对房价具有重要作用,并且消息冲击影响下的住房价格与传统周期模型下实际政策冲击的影响下的住房价格之间具有明显的区别。同时,本文还通过对上述三种冲击进行相互组合所产生的四组混合预期对住房价格的影响发现：当经济人对未来同时产生多种预期时,由多种预期所产生的对内生变量的影响具有相互增强的性质。最后,本文发现在导致房价上涨的预期冲击中,预期紧缩的企业信贷政策是最微弱的,其次是预期紧缩的个人抵押贷款政策,房产税试点消息预期则是导致房价上涨方面最不利的预期因素。     

房产信贷约束下中国房价波动与非住房消费的门槛效应分析

针对城镇居民非住房消费不足与高房价并存的典型现象,运用面板门槛模型对31个省区市2005—2019年的数据进行研究,探讨房价波动对非住房消费的影响并揭示空间差异。结果表明：房价波动对家庭非住房消费既有挤出效应也有财富效应,其中随着房产信贷约束的放松,挤出效应减弱,而财富效应增强;东部、中部、西部和东北部之间的门槛效应是异质的;各地区住房信贷约束水平存在明显差异,对房价与非住房消费之间的异质性关联起着至关重要的作用;房价波动和房产信贷约束并不是导致低消费的综合因素,无法负担的房价以及家庭抚养负担的增加是低消费的综合因素。因此,稳定房价仍是当务之急,房产信贷政策应与房地产市场的发展相适应,以促进消费。     

Crises in Asia: Recovery and policy responses

The goal of this paper is to provide stylized facts on recovery from economic downturns and to evaluate the role of macroeconomic policies in promoting recovery. In particular, we examine gross domestic product (GDP) recessions and financial downturns (credit contractions and stock price declines) using data from 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies and 21 developing Asian economies. We find, in general, recovery from a GDP recession in the Asian economies is somewhat slower than in the OECD economies. However, recovery from a financial downturn is not much different between Asia and the OECD. We also find the OECD economies have been more active and effective in using counter-cyclical policies than the Asian economies in the face of GDP recessions and financial downturns. Recent evidence, however, suggests the Asian economies may have better success in the current global crisis.     

The lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia

This study evaluates the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia by using quarterly bank-level data over the period of 2005-2016. I find that the lending channel of monetary policy works for all banks, both large and small. The results suggest that higher capital buffers and better liquidity positions moderate the impact of changes in monetary policy on credit growth for large banks, while capital buffers and liquidity positions do not alter the strength of the lending channel for small banks. The findings indicate that the central bank can use prudential instruments affecting capital buffers and liquidity positions for managing the strength of adjustment in the monetary policy interest rate on bank credit growth.     

Capital Flows,Financial Intermediation and Macroprudential Policies

This paper develops an open-economy DSGE model with an optimizing banking sector to assess the role of capital flows, macro-financial linkages, and macroprudential policies. The key result is that macroprudential measures can usefully complement monetary policy. Countercyclical macroprudential polices can help reduce macroeconomic volatility and enhance welfare. The results also demonstrate the importance of capital flows and financial stability for business cycle fluctuations as well as the role of supply side financial accelerator effects in the amplification and propagation of shocks.     

Entry,information, and financial development: A century of competition between French banks and notaries

Poorly developed financial markets are widely believed to block economic growth, because only modern financial intermediaries such as banks can mobilize large amounts of financial capital at low cost. This claim is supported by cross country regressions, but the regressions assume that credit intermediation is measured accurately before modern financial intermediaries arrive. If traditional intermediaries were mobilizing large amounts of financial capital before banks or other modern intermediaries appear, then the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth would be cast into doubt. Using an original panel dataset from nineteenth-century France, we provide the first estimates of how much financial capital key traditional intermediaries (notaries) were mobilizing for an entire economy during its first century of economic growth, and we analyze the lending that the notaries made possible in French mortgage market. The amount of capital they mobilized turns out to be large. We then analyze the effect that financial deepening had on the notaries as banks spread and find that the banks' and notaries' services were in all likelihood complements. The implication is that the link between financial development and economic growth may therefore be weaker than is assumed.     

The relative contributions of location and preferential policies in China's regional development: being in the right place and having the right incentives

A large part of the literature on provincial inequality in China has found it necessary to include regional dummies in the provincial growth regressions. A smaller but vocal part of the literature has emphasised the granting of preferential policies to explain the faster growth of the coastal provinces. We replace the regional dummies with a measure of the ability to participate in international trade (Geography), and a preferential policy index (Policy). We find that geography and policy had about equal influence on coastal growth (3 percentage points each). Geography affected growth with a much longer lag than policy, however. The policy index was highest for the metropolises (Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin) and lowest for the central and northwestern provinces. The preferential policies are to a large extent “deregulation policies” that enabled marketization and internationalization of the coastal economies and allowed them to become more like their East Asian neighbours (and competitors). The weak (statistically insignificant) support for conditional convergence is in line with the existence of institutions that retard the income convergence process generated by the movement of labor and capital and by the Stolper–Samuelson mechanism. The household registration system ties the peasants to the land, the monopoly state bank system favors borrowing by state enterprises, and local protectionism reduces inter-provincial trade. Clearly, these institutions need to be deregulated. An effective strategy to develop the western provinces must therefore encompass physical capital formation, human capital formation, and institutional capital formation.