The determinants of rural and urban household poverty in the North West province of South Africa

Based on standard poverty measures, the extent of poverty in the North West province is on average worse than in South Africa. For instance, the poverty gap ratio for North West is twice that of the South African average, and the FGT index is three times as high. This article therefore aims to identify the determinants of rural and urban poverty in the North West province of South Africa. Using data gathered from a survey of 593 black households across the province, probit model estimates suggest that the major significant determinants of household poverty in both rural and urban areas are education and household size. A difference between rural and urban poverty is, first, that extra female adults in a rural household raise the probability of poverty. Secondly, having a migrant (out) worker as head of the household in rural areas lowers the probability of poverty, while this does not apply to urban households. A sensitivity analysis for the robustness of the results over a range of poverty lines reveals that the impact of education is much stronger for poorer households than for more wealthy households.     

Unemployment, Poverty and Income Disparity in Urban China

This paper studies the issues of unemployment and poverty that have been appearing recently in urban China. It estimates the urban unemployment rate, poverty rate and income disparity using a new sample survey data set. Meanwhile, it analyzes the relationship between unemployment and poverty, and the effects of poverty on urban inequality. The main findings are that: (i) the urban unemployment rate reached 11.6% in 1999 and was a major cause of urban poverty; (ii) growing urban poverty is becoming the significant source of worsening urban inequality; and (iii) migrant households have an increasing influence on urban poverty and the pattern of urban income distribution. The paper concludes that urban income distribution has worsened since 1995, and urban unemployment and poverty are the major factors in this worsening.     

Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis

It is well known that the economic crisis in Indonesia has caused the poverty rate to increase significantly. The present study finds, not only that the poverty rate increased significantly, but also that much of the increase was due to a large increase in the chronic poor category (i.e. the poor who have expected consumption below the poverty line and most likely will stay poor in the near future). Furthermore, the present study also finds that the proportion of households that have high vulnerability to poverty has more than doubled since the economic crisis. As a result, the proportion of the total vulnerable group (the current poor plus the high vulnerability group) has jumped from less than one-fifth of the population before the crisis to more than one-third after the crisis.     

Emerging Urban Poverty and Effects of the Dibao Program on Alleviating Poverty in China

The present paper describes the current urban poverty situation,examines the factors affecting the probability of a household being in poverty and investigates how the urban minimum living standard guarantee (dibao) program helps poor people to get out of poverty. The targeting efficiency of the urban dibao program is discussed. The present study finds that the poverty rate of households with unemployed workers is much higher than that of households without unemployed workers. The urban dibao program is helpful in reducing poverty rates,but it does not reduce poverty rates too much. The government should place emphasis on helping laid-off and unemployed workers to become reemployed. The most urgent problem for the dibao program is improving the efficiency of targeting.     

Impact of Agricultural Research and Extension on crop productivity in Pakistan: A production function approach

This study analyzes the contribution that agricultural research and extension made to crop productivity in Pakistan from 1955 to 1981. Using a production function approach, it estimates the (marginal) internal rate of return to these activities. The estimated rate of around 36% is in the range reported for other countries. Considering this high rate of return and the low public spending on agricultural research and extension in Pakistan, the obvious policy recommendation is to allocate more and higher quality resources to these activities to facilitate a rapid increase in agricultural productivity.     

Poverty,Vulnerability and Social Protection in a Period of Crisis: The Case of Indonesia

Before the financial crisis of mid-1997, estimates of consumption poverty in Indonesia were based on rather modest poverty line thresholds when seen in relation to estimates of capability poverty. The reasons behind this discrepancy are identified and alternative estimates of consumption poverty for the pre-crisis period proposed. During the crisis, the behavior of consumption poverty can be described as transient in nature and is relevant in understanding the notion of vulnerability, that is, the risk that individuals and households can experience temporary episodes of poverty. Vulnerability could have worsened, however, in the absence of government intervention, entailing macroeconomic stabilization measures and social protection initiatives. Based on this experience, a fiscally sustainable social safety net, that is able to reinforce household coping mechanisms and social capital, is recommended as part of the country's medium-term strategy to combat poverty.     

Urban–Rural Differences in Costs of Living and Their Impact on Poverty Measures

This note demonstrates empirically the importance of urban-rural price differences and inflation figures in poverty analysis. Using data from the National Socio-Economic Survey (Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional, widely known as Susenas), it shows that the urban-rural food price differential during the period 1987–96 was 13–16%, not 28–52% as impli by the ‘official’ food poverty lines. The urban–rural poverty comparisons and the components of change in simulated poverty estimates presented here therefore differ from those based on the ‘official’ figures. They indicate that migration to urban areas between 1987 and 1996 accounts for a significant part of the observed decline in poverty. The paper concludes that it is essential to use accurate urban–rural cost of living differences in deriving aggregate, urban and rural poverty estimates.     

China's poverty statistics

China's official poverty statistics show a dramatic reduction in poverty from 31% of the rural population in 1978 to 3% in 2000. We evaluate possible sources of bias in these estimates and conclude that the official statistics underestimate rural poverty and overstate the speed of poverty reduction. Direct measures of nutritional outcomes support the contention that poverty is more widespread than suggested by official statistics. Priority should be given to constructing new statistics to accurately measure urban poverty. The method for calculating county income per capita, a key policy variable affecting official poor county designation, is ad hoc and subject to political influence.     

Vulnerability to poverty in China: a subjective poverty line approach

Wide arrays of econometric techniques have been proposed to assess vulnerability to poverty. All such measures attempt to determine the probability to fall (or remain) into poverty given households’ characteristics. We have used cross-section data from the Chinese Household Income Project Series and subjective poverty lines to shed light on the sources of uncertainty in China. The lack of a comprehensive pension system and distance from the markets raise vulnerability in rural areas, whereas the hukou registration system has generated a growing mass of exploited and unprotected migrants in urban areas.     

Are poverty rates underestimated in China? New evidence from four recent surveys

Knowledge of poverty prevalence is essential for any society concerned with improving public welfare and reducing poverty. In this paper, we estimate and compare poverty incidence rates in China using four nationally representative surveys: the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) of 2010, the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) of 2010, the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) of 2011, and the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) of 2007. Using both international and official domestic poverty standards, we show that poverty rates at the national, rural, and urban levels based on the CFPS, CGSS, and the CHFS are all much higher than the official estimates and those based on the CHIP. This study highlights the importance of using independent datasets to verify official statistics of public and policy concern in contemporary China.     

Changes in poverty in Zimbabwe between 1990 and 1996: Worsening outcomes under adverse conditions

The article examines changes in poverty and sources of change in Zimbabwe between 1990 and 1996. Comparable national survey data are used for both periods. Findings indicate that levels of wellbeing and poverty worsened during the period, although there is some evidence that inequality is lower in the latter year. Rural poverty is more prevalent, severe and deeper than that in urban areas, but urban poverty grew dramatically during the period. Much of the growth of urban poverty is associated with economic restructuring and the failure of the urban economy to produce high-quality jobs. While the educational attainment of the urban population grew during the 1990s, secondary and higher levels of education were no longer a guarantee of escape from poverty in 1995/6. In rural areas, all land-use types exhibited an increase in poverty; these findings are robust to the welfare measure chosen.     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

Hurricane Katrina as an Experiment in Housing Mobility and Neighborhood Effects: Were the Relocated Poor Black Evacuees Better-Off?

Hurricane Katrina induced hundreds of thousands of New Orleans citizens to evacuate and relocate to different neighborhoods. Some of these evacuees moved to neighborhoods with poverty rates lower than the one they left in New Orleans. With survey data on a small sample of black Katrina evacuees who registered for absentee voter ballots, this paper explores whether or not there were improvements in the welfare of black evacuees—neighborhood effects—as a result of moving to neighborhoods with a lower poverty rate. With data from a small sample of relocated Katrina evacuees, we provide matching estimates of the short-run treatment effect of different types of changes in neighborhood poverty on five different measures of individual welfare. Treatment parameter estimates reveal—conditional upon the change in origin to destination neighborhood poverty rate—positive neighborhood effects mostly for black evacuees who did not move from high poverty to low poverty neighborhoods, but could have. Our results suggest that at least in the short-run, antipoverty policies based on housing mobility and changing the poverty characteristics of neighborhoods are not necessarily effective in improving the welfare of poor black households.     

Food Price Crisis,Poverty, and Inequality

This paper simulates how a doubling of food prices affects absolute poverty and the food‐price‐adjusted real income distribution. We assume unsubsidized world food prices in order to derive the cost of poverty deepening and poverty expansion. We also estimate the degree to which inequality increases if no measures are put in place to offset rising food prices. Both measures are vulnerability indicators useful for social policy planning. Our results show that low‐income countries experience dramatic increases in absolute poverty as a result of doubling food prices. Middle‐income countries experience the greatest decrease in absolute income, which contributes most to an increase in world income inequality. The paper estimates that the global dollar value of the absolute poverty gap ($1.25/day) has the potential to increase by 400%, with poverty deepening accounting for two thirds of the increase.     

Counting The Poor in Indonesia∗

A confusing aspect of the now rather large literature on trends in poverty in Indonesia in the New Order period is that virtually every study has used a different poverty line concept; indeed, even the World Bank appears to have used different poverty lines in different published studies and unpublished reports Unlike the government of Malaysia, for example, the Indonesian government has not chosen to promulgate a poverty line in its official planning documents, and successive Five Year Development Plans have had very little to say about poverty trends. However, the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) has in recent years put forward its own poverty line concept which has been used to estimate numbers in poverty in urban and rural areas, and these estimates have been published for some years in the annual Indikator Kesejahteraan Rakyat [Welfare Indicators]. Although the BPS estimates are now widely quoted in Indonesia, they have not won universal acceptance, and other authors continue to use other poverty line concepts and thus derive different conclusions regarding the extent of poverty in Indonesia, the regional distribution of the poor and trends in poverty over time.

One purpose of this paper is to review critically these different poverty concepts and to explain why they have produced different results. A second aim is to compare the Indonesian poverty line estimates with those from neighbouring ASEAN countries. Finally, some suggestions will be made on possible new initiatives in poverty research in Indonesia.

     

Food poverty profile and decomposition applied to Ghana

A new procedure for deriving a food poverty line and estimating a decomposable poverty measure is applied to the 1974–1975 Ghana Household Budget Survey. A food poverty profile is constructed which estimates the relative contributions of regional and socioeconomic variables to overall food poverty. The incidence of food poverty is found to be more prevalent in: (1) rural areas and locations close to the Sahel; and (2) households with many members and illiterate, female, or self-employed heads. Comparisons of least-cost diets and observed diets incorporating tastes suggest that households exercise food preferences which have relatively high costs.     

Poverty and vulnerability in rural China: effects of taxation

This paper studies the impact of taxation on poverty and ex ante vulnerability of households in rural China based on national household survey data in 1988, 1995 and 2002. It has been confirmed that (i) poverty and vulnerability have reduced significantly with a great deal of geographical disparity; (ii) education, land, and access to infrastructure and irrigation facilities are the key factors to reduce vulnerability; and (iii) the highly regressive tax system increased farmers’ poverty and vulnerability. The abolishment of rural tax since 2006 would thus have a significant negative impact on both poverty and vulnerability of rural households.     

Monetary policy rules for a developing country: Evidence from Pakistan

This paper estimates forward-looking monetary policy rules to examine the interest rate setting behavior of the State Bank of Pakistan. Considering the external constraints on monetary policy, core inflation and a country-specific measure of the output gap, we demonstrate that the State Bank of Pakistan reacts to changes in inflation, the output gap and the federal funds rate.     

国内外关于城镇贫困治理的主要经验及其启示

为了有针对性地提高现行贫困治理政策面向城镇贫困人口时的供给能力,本文对国内外关于城镇贫困治理的主要经验进行了梳理,并提出对我国城镇贫困治理的启示。研究发现,国外城镇贫困治理的主要经验是困治理制度覆盖范围广泛、保障项目丰富水平较高或灵活性较强、保障资金的筹集方式较为灵活;国内城镇贫困治理的主要经验是保障标准确定方式较为科学、严格准入制度细化分类救助、鼓励城镇贫困人口积极就业。最后从理念层面、技术层面、政策层面、制度层面提出了国内外经验的启示。     

Vulnerability to Poverty in Papua New Guinea in 1996

This paper uses cross‐section data from the 1996 Papua New Guinea Household Survey to assess household vulnerability to poverty in Papua New Guinea. Vulnerability varies across regions, household size, gender and level of education of households. We use a simple empirical model that permits estimation of vulnerability to poverty assuming that households have the same conditional distribution of consumption in a stationary environment. Although this approach does not capture all dimensions of vulnerability, it at least raises the policy interest that vulnerability should be considered alongside poverty.