Emerging market mutual fund performance: Evidence for Poland

This paper provides evidence on the performance of mutual funds in a prominent emerging market; Poland. Studying an emerging market provides an excellent opportunity to test whether the consensus on the inability of mutual funds in developed and highly efficient markets to beat the market, also holds in less efficient markets. While the weaknesses of legal institutions and underdeveloped capital markets in emerging countries could negatively contribute to performance, a certain level of market inefficiency might also enable fund managers to successfully apply security selection and therefore beat the market. This paper presents an overview of the Polish mutual fund industry and investigates mutual fund performance using a survivorship bias controlled sample of 140 funds. The latter is done using the Carhart (1997) 4-factor asset-pricing model. In addition, we investigate whether Polish fund managers exhibit “hot hands”, persistence in performance. Finally the influence of fund characteristics on risk-adjusted performance is considered. Our overall results suggest that Polish mutual funds on average are not able to add value, as indicated by their negative net alphas. Interestingly, domestic funds outperform internationally investing funds, which points at informational advantages of local over foreign investors. Finally, we detect strong persistence in mean returns up to 1 year. It is striking that “winning” funds are able to significantly beat the market, based on their significantly positive alpha's. These results deviate from studies on developed markets that conclude that even past winners are not able to significantly beat the market.     

Do fixed income mutual fund managers have managerial skills?

Motivated by Berk and Green [Berk, J., & Green, R. (2004). Mutual fund flows and performance in rational markets. Journal of Political Economy, 112, 1269–1295] and Chevalier and Ellison [Chevalier, J., & Ellison, G. (1999). Career concerns of mutual fund managers. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, 389–432] who show theoretically that performance persistence may be short-lived, we complement Bollen and Busse [Bollen, N., & Busse, J. A. (2004). Short-term persistence in mutual fund performance. Review of Financial Studies, 18, 569–597] and examine performance persistence in high-quality corporate-bond mutual funds over short horizons. Empirically, we find supporting evidence of performance persistence over shorter horizons. Our empirical tests also suggest that the performance persistence we document may be at least partly due to managerial skills.     

Smart money or dumb money? A study on the selection ability of mutual fund investors in China

We examine investors’ mutual fund selection ability in China. Using actively managed equity mutual funds between 2005 and 2011, we find that Chinese investors generally have no mutual fund selection ability, a result contrary to the smart money effect in the United States. We show that mutual funds that receive more new money subsequently underperform significantly. The findings are robust to several risk-adjusted performance measures. The unique data of China provide separate accounts of institutional and individual investors’ new money flowing into and out of mutual funds, allowing us to examine the mutual fund selection ability of institutional and individual investors. We document that institutional investors exhibit a smart money effect, that is, they are able to move new money into (out of) future good (poor) performers. In contrast, individual investors exhibit a dumb money effect. Our results provide useful information for regulators to review their rules, especially for the protection of individual investors regarding mutual fund investing in China. In addition, we show that it is useful to distinguish institutional and individual investors in mutual fund research.     

Mutual fund performance: The decision quality and capital magnet efficiencies

This study employs a two-stage network data envelopment analysis model to analyze the decision quality and capital magnet efficiencies of 155 mutual funds in Taiwan during the period 2007–2016. The empirical results show that fund managers improved their decision quality; however, their capital magnet efficiency declined. This study also found 10 mutual funds performing in decision quality and capital magnet efficiencies, from which practical suggestions are provided to investors. Finally, this study constructs a market competition matrix to help fund managers (and investors) improve their operating and portfolio performance, plus resource allocation.     

Robust performance measures for high yield bond funds

We examine performance measures for high yield bond mutual funds, which are a considerable percentage of taxable bond investments, but have not been widely studied. High yield funds exhibit persistence in their monthly returns, so we calculate Sharpe ratios using methods that incorporate the serial correlation of returns. We find that high yield fund rankings using raw returns and conventionally calculated Sharpe ratios are different from those using trailing standard deviations and robust standard errors. High yield fund rankings based on robust Sharpe ratios also differ from those computed using multi-index Jensen's alphas and information ratios. When measured by risk-adjusted returns, high yield bond fund managers do not add much value.     

Mutual fund selection and performance persistence in 401(k) Plans

We examine how plan sponsors/providers select mutual funds for 401(k) plans and whether performance persistence exists for mutual funds listed in 401(k) plans. Using a hand-collected data set of 401(k) investment options, we find that plan sponsors are likely to choose actively managed growth funds, including aggressive growth funds and long-term growth funds. Furthermore, more than 50% of the mutual funds in our sample of 401(k) plans are selected from the top 10 fund families in terms of total net assets. On average, plan sponsors select funds that outperform the funds with the same investment objective and that have low expense ratios. The performance of mutual funds in 401(k) plans only persists in a short horizon. Our analysis indicates that the menus of 401(k) investment options do not exhibit a signaling effect, indicating that investment options in 401(k) plans do not supply useful information about the future performance of mutual funds for investors in selecting mutual funds.     

开放式基金和基金家族业绩持续性研究

我国证券投资基金快速发展,从属于同一家基金管理公司的单个基金越来越多,形成基金家族。本文研究从单个基金和基金家族的整体两个层面,采用实证检验方法对其业绩持续性进行研究,研究表明我国开放式基金仅具有短期的业绩持续性,而基金家族的整体业绩不存在持续性,籍此结果提示投资者不应仅仅关注基金的短期业绩,应更多关注基金的长期业绩表现,规避投资中对家族和规模的偏好,关注高价值基金,才能最大程度保障资金安全和自身的利益。     

Recent evidence on the short-term and long-term performance persistence of emerging-market mutual fund returns

This paper analyzes the performance persistence of US-based emerging-market mutual funds. We use a sample of 275 actively managed funds between July 1989 and December 2020 and regress their returns on emerging-market benchmark portfolios. On average, the funds had a significant negative alpha. Contrary to some earlier evidence, we document that the short-term consistency is entirely driven by losses of underperforming funds. The return spread between the short-term winners and losers generates a significant positive alpha that can be fully explained by the momentum in emerging-market stocks. We find no evidence of any long-term regularities. Our findings show that the observed funds exhibit very similar behavior to their developed-market counterparts and may contribute to resolving some inconsistencies in the earlier results.     

Threshold effect of scale and skill in active mutual fund management

In this paper, we apply threshold estimation techniques to study the size-performance relationship in the US mutual fund industry. Existing studies have found diseconomies of scale, and we add our contribution to this by considering possible non-linear decreasing returns to scale caused by fund age and manager tenure. We find significant threshold effects of both fund age and manager tenure at approximately three to four years in the size-performance relationship. Compared with younger funds, older funds have more severe decreasing returns to scale as the industry size increases.     

New insights into mutual fund brokerage commissions

Using data collected from equity mutual fund reports filed by single-fund registrants to the Securities and Exchange Commission, I study the determinants of brokerage commissions paid by fund managers when they buy or sell securities and investigate the role these commissions play in fund performance. Consistent with related studies, my results from cross-sectional analyses reveal that higher portfolio turnover funds are associated with higher commissions and larger funds incur lower commissions, as well as the positive relation between expense ratios and commissions. This positive relation is puzzling as most commissions include “soft dollars” for payments of products and services that should be already covered by the costs reported under expense ratios. However, once I take into account unobservable fund heterogeneity, I find that higher expense ratio funds do not necessarily pay higher commissions. Further, controlling for whether a fund increased commission payments as the result of flow-induced trading, I show that the underperformance related to brokerage commissions documented in the literature is attributable (at least partly) to higher level of fund flows.     

Examining the behavior of renewable‐energy fund investors

Mutual fund investors could contribute to sustainable development by encouraging fund managers to channel their savings into the funding of sustainable energy projects adopted by firms. This study examines whether renewable‐energy investors take into account financial and/or nonfinancial factors when making the decision to invest in a specific fund, comparing their investment behavior with that of black‐energy and conventional investors. To this end, we have gathered information about 4,368 mutual funds (76 renewable‐energy funds, 109 black‐energy funds, and 4,183 conventional mutual funds) from January 2007 to December 2017. For this sample, we adopt a panel‐data approach with Petersen's standard errors clustered by fund and year. Our results indicate that renewable‐energy fund investors are less sensitive to past financial performance than are black‐energy and conventional fund investors, indicating that the former derive their utility from nonfinancial attributes whereas black‐energy investors derive their utility from a conditional multiattribute and conventional fund investors derive their utility from financial attributes.     

Impact of investor sentiment on mutual fund risk taking and performance: evidence from China

ABSTRACT

This study provides empirical rationale and guidance for incorporating investor sentiment into mutual fund enterprise information systems. It investigates the effect of fund-specific investor sentiment on fund risk taking and performance. Working on a sample of equity funds in China, our panel regressions reveal that fund risk-taking is negatively related to lagged fund-specific investor sentiment. Investor sentiment is negatively linked to subsequent fund performance, which conforms with the dumb money effect. Encouragingly, there is evidence that mutual fund managers in China possess investing expertise. Fund-specific investor sentiment shows asymmetric impacts. The dumb money effect is primarily driven by positive sentiment.     

Do actively managed mutual funds exploit stock market mispricing?

Constructing a proxy for mispricing with 15 well-known stock market anomalies, we examine whether actively managed mutual funds exploit mispricing. We find that, in the aggregate, mutual funds overweight overvalued stocks and underweight undervalued stocks relative to a passive benchmark, and this tendency is explained by the ill-motivated trades of agency-prone fund managers. In addition, we find that mutual funds with the highest weights in undervalued stocks outperform those with the highest weights in overvalued stocks by an annualized three-factor alpha of 2.12% (t = 2.38), implying that slanting portfolios based on our proxy helps mutual funds improve performance.     

我国投资基金业绩的持续性分析

基金业绩的持续性是指业绩优秀的基金以后一段时间继续保持优秀的业绩,而业绩差的基金继续表现出差的业绩。如果基金具有持续性,对于投资者来讲,他们可以买进前期业绩优秀的基金,而卖出前期业绩差的基金,来获取超额收益,投资者不必耗费大量的资金和时间去评价和选择基金经理。本文就基金业绩持续性的研究理论方法进行阐述,并对我国投资基金作实证分析。     

Investor behavior in the mutual fund industry: evidence from gross flows

Using a large sample of monthly gross flows from 1997 to 2003, we uncover several previously undocumented regularities in investor behavior. First, investor purchases and sales produce fund-level gross flows that are highly persistent. Persistence in fund flows dominates performance as a predictor of future fund flows. More importantly, failing to account for flow persistence leads to incorrect inferences with respect to the relation between performance and flows. Second, we document that investors react differently to performance depending on the type of fund, and that investor trading activity produces meaningful differences in the persistence of fund flows across mutual fund types. Third, at least some investors appear to evaluate and respond to mutual fund performance over much shorter time spans than previously assessed. Additionally, we document differences in the speed and magnitude of investors’ purchase and sales responses to performance.     

Load and no-load mutual fund dynamics during the 1987 market crash: A stochastic dominance analysis

Using a large sample of equity mutual fund returns, we compare performance of load and no-load funds during the 1987 crash. Differences in return distributions, particularly in the higher moments when the market was under stress, suggest a greater use of portfolio insurance by no-load fund managers. Using stochastic dominance, we find that load and no-load funds performed equally well before the crash. No-load returns dominated load fund returns during the crash. Load fund returns dominate after the crash. Over the entire month, no-load funds dominate. We attribute this to investor behavior motivated by the lack of a front-end load.     

The role of mutual funds in the sustainable energy sector

The integration of renewable energy criteria in mutual fund investment decisions could channel private resources into the funding of environmentally related projects implemented by firms contributing to sustainable development. This paper examines the performance of European renewable energy funds that invest globally by comparing their risk‐adjusted returns with those achieved by black energy and conventional mutual funds. It uses Carhart's model on a sample of 81 renewable energy funds, 125 black energy funds, and 4,337 conventional mutual funds. The results indicate that 32.1% of renewable mutual funds—most of which adopt energy producers, renewable energy technology, and energy efficiency‐focused criteria—perform significantly better than the S&P Clean Energy market benchmark, this percentage being affected by the different states of the economy. However, none of them are able to beat the fossil fuel energy (S&P Global 1200 Energy Index) or conventional market benchmarks (S&P Global 1200 Index). Furthermore, 37.04% of renewable energy funds significantly underperform the S&P Global 1200 benchmark. Therefore, the investment in renewable energy funds has a financial cost for investors in relation to conventional fund investors.     

Evaluating mutual funds on a small market: is benchmark selection crucial?

This paper focuses on mutual fund performance analysis on a small market during a turbulent period. Firstly, we address the question of proper measures and benchmarks. A potentially critical issue on a small market concerns large market weights for individual stocks, which in combination with mutual fund legislation may prevent funds from following the index. Secondly, our investigation period was characterized by persistent bull and bear markets, which makes it interesting to investigate whether successful market timing was possible. Different measures of performance are compared and benchmark sensitivity is analysed with the help of various market timing and multiple index models, including benchmarks such as the FOX and HEX indices, a small-firm index, and a bond index. Contrary to many studies that record great benchmark sensitivity, we find markedly similar ranking for different benchmarks. Performance measures are also related to certain fund characteristics such as fund expenses, and fund size. We find that fund characteristics (especially fund expenses) are significantly related to fund performance, a relationship that may be used to increase the power of tests of fund performance.     

Learning about individual managers’ performance in UK pension funds: The importance of specialization

This study examines the performance of managers over time, as well as its persistence, taking into account both manager characteristics and market conditions. Applying parametric and non-parametric methodologies, we examine a sample of UK equity pension fund managers. Our results help to understand the importance of manager assignments in the industry and reveal the importance and benefits of management specialization. We find certain manager performance persistence, revealing that some managers are better than others and possess superior investment skills. Additionally, we find that managers achieve better results when they run a single fund or one investment-objective funds, which allows managers to focus on specific tasks. Nonetheless, manager performance varies with market conditions and highlights managers’ different skills. Specialist managers perform better in bullish markets, and generalists perform better in bearish periods.