Quantitative wave model of macro-finance

This paper presents macro-finance as ensemble of economic agents and suggests use risk ratings of economic agents as their coordinates on economic space. Financial variables of separate economic agents are defined as functions of time and coordinates on economic space. Aggregations of financial variables of separate economic agents with coordinates near point x on economic space define macro-financial variables as function of x. Hydrodynamic-like equations describe evolution and mutual dependence between macro-financial variables. As example, for simple model of mutual dependence between macro-financial Demand on Investment and Interest Rate we derive hydrodynamic-like equations in a closed form. Perturbations of macro financial variables can generate waves those propagate on economic space and we derive wave equations. Macro financial waves can propagate on economic space with exponential growth of amplitudes and cause time fluctuations of finance variables that may model financial and business cycles. Variety of macro financial waves on economic space gives new look on internal dynamics of macro finance and reveals hidden complexity of macro financial modeling and forecasting.     

Macroeconomic determinants of stock market capitalization in an emerging market: fresh evidence from cointegration with unknown structural breaks

This article explores the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in an emerging market (Pakistan) over the period of 1974–2010. We have applied Zivot–Andrews unit root test for integrating properties of the variables and the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing for cointegration. The direction of causality between the variables is investigated by applying the vector error-correction model Granger causality approach. Our results revealed that variables are cointegrated for long run relationship. Economic growth, inflation, financial development and investment increase stock market development, but trade openness decreases it. The causality analysis confirms that stock market development is a Granger cause of economic growth, inflation, financial development, investment and trade openness. This article indicates the importance of trade openness while formulating a comprehensive financial policy.     

Law,Finance, and Economic Growth

This paper examines how the legal environment affects financial development, and then asks how this in turn is linked to long-run economic growth. Financial intermediaries are better developed in countries with legal and regulatory systems that (1) give a high priority to creditors receiving the full present value of their claims on corporations, (2) enforce contracts effectively, and (3) promote comprehensive and accurate financial reporting by corporations. The data also indicate that the exogenous component of financial intermediary development—the component defined by the legal and regulatory environment—is positively associated with economic growth. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G21, K12, O16     

Banks,financial markets,and social welfare

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model of banking and financial markets. The model allows to compare financial systems in which banks have access to financial markets with financial systems in which banks do not have access to financial markets. Allen and Gale [A welfare comparison of intermediaries and financial markets in Germany and the US. European Economic Review 39 (1995) 179–209] find that the Anglo-Saxon model of financial intermediation in which financial markets play a dominant role does not necessarily improve social welfare in comparison with the German model in which banks dominate. Our model provides a theoretical foundation for this view.     

An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings

In recent years, the demand for sovereign ratings has increased mainly due to the inevitable globalisation of markets. This study analyses the quantitative determinants of sovereign ratings provided by the two main agencies, namely, Standard and Poors and Moody. The analysis also provides a forecast of the ratings to be assigned to the countries based on the model used as well as providing ratings to be assigned to a set of weaker economies which are not actually rated by the rating agencies. The main finding of the paper is that current economic and financial indicators alone do not determine ratings. In addition, the relevance of economic variables is not the same across the different rating categories. Economic variables do not carry the same importance for the sample of high rated countries with a long financial stability history as compared to the low rated sample of countries that are still undergoing structural changes.     

Estimates of the macroeconomic costs of cyber‐attacks

This paper estimates the macroeconomic losses related to the cyber‐attacks originating from the information and communications technology (ICT) and the financial sectors. The study accounts for the interdependency of various economic sectors and looks to the cascading effect of cyber‐attacks on production network in the United States and leading Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries with the help of the input–output methodology and the World Input–Output Database. Our results suggest that cyber‐attacks that affect the ICT and finance sectors result in losses which also impact different economic sectors, due to cascading effects.     

Lender Liability and Large Investors

We explore the optimal financial contract for a large investor with potential control over a firm's investment decisions. An optimal menu of claims resembles a U.S. version of lender liability doctrine—equitable subordination. This doctrine permits the court to subordinate a controlling investor's claim in bankruptcy, but only under well-specified conditions. It allows a firm to strike an efficient balance between: (i) inducing the large investor to monitor, and (ii) limiting the influence costs that arise when claimants can challenge existing contracts. We provide a partial rationale for a financial system in which powerful creditors do not hold blended debt and equity claims. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G20, G33, K22.     

Financial Distortions and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence

Conventional wisdom suggests a negative relation between financial distortions and economic growth. This paper incorporates the financial premium, a good proxy for the degree of restrictions on financial transactions, into a standard AK-type endogenous growth model. The analytical results suggest that such a relationship does not exist. Economic growth is insulated by the financial premium, contrasting with previously held beliefs. Agents' patience and the attitude of relative risk aversion are noteworthy in explaining the effects of external distortions on economic growth. Our findings may apply to economies with parallel exchange markets.     

西江经济带建设与金融资源配置研究

西江是联接西南和华南的＂黄金水道＂,2012年8月,广西区政府正式批复实施《广西西江经济带发展总体规划》（以下简称《总体规划》）,确立了江海互动、推动整个西江流域经济的统筹协调发展的战略思路,＂西江经济带＂面临前所未有的重大发展机遇。金融资源是推动区域经济协调发展的一个重要工具和杠杆,本文通过西江经济带发展及金融资源配置现状分析,研究设计合理优化金融资源配置、促进＂西江经济带＂快速协调发展的对策措施。     

关于循序渐进推进北部湾经济区金融同城化的思考

为推进北部湾经济区同城一体化发展进程,加快金融同城化服务建设,本文从经济社会经济发展的实际出发,借鉴国内外先进发展地区金融同城化的经验,阐述了金融同城化的内涵,分析了金融同城化的主体要素,并就如何推进北部湾经济区金融同城化提出了相关建议。     

Relationship Banking: What Do We Know?

This paper briefly reviews the contemporary literature on relationship banking. We start out with a discussion of the raison d'être of banks in the context of the financial intermediation literature. From there we discuss how relationship banking fits into the core economic services provided by banks and point at its costs and benefits. This leads to an examination of the interrelationship between the competitive environment and relationship banking as well as a discussion of the empirical evidence. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G20, G21, L10.     

Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) relates to ambiguity surrounding possible changes in government policy and their associate impact on firm performance. This uncertainty places additional stress on economic agents and has implications for the global economy via delays in firm investment and hiring, and postponement of household consumption. We utilise the EPU measure of Baker et al. (2016) to investigate whether financial market uncertainty is related to policy uncertainty across the G7 economies. Our empirical results show that financial market uncertainty (implied volatility) increases as economic policy uncertainty increases (and the economy weakens). This relationship holds even after controlling for macroeconomic state variables and country/time fixed effects, and is consistent for monthly and daily data frequency. The correlation of political uncertainty among countries varies over time, increasing in tranquil times with low EPU, and sharply decreasing during times of crisis. We also show that US and Japanese policy uncertainty has an economic and statistically significant relationship with global financial market uncertainty, a spill-over effect that is consistent with the size of their economies, and the important role that US policy decisions play in the global economy.     

Interpreting financial market crashes as earthquakes: A new Early Warning System for medium term crashes

We propose a modeling framework which allows for creating probability predictions on a future market crash in the medium term, like sometime in the next five days. Our framework draws upon noticeable similarities between stock returns around a financial market crash and seismic activity around earthquakes. Our model is incorporated in an Early Warning System for future crash days. Testing our EWS on S&P 500 data during the recent financial crisis, we find positive Hanssen–Kuiper Skill Scores. Furthermore our modeling framework is capable of exploiting information in the returns series not captured by well known and commonly used volatility models. EWS based on our models outperform EWS based on the volatility models forecasting extreme price movements, while forecasting is much less time-consuming.     

South Korea’s finance–growth nexus: evidence from VARX analysis with financial crisis and openness

South Korea’s finance–growth nexus is empirically investigated by taking the elements of financial crisis and trade and financial openness through the newly developed approach of vector error-correction models (ECMs) with weakly exogenous I(1) variables (VARX). Considering financial development as a more complex phenomenon, we take into estimation two aspects of financial deepening that are measured by its size (private credit to GDP) and efficiency (private credit to total domestic deposits). The main findings are (1) financial efficiency contributes to accelerating economic growth; (2) the causality between economic growth and financial size is bilateral and negative; and (3) financial crisis is negative to both economic growth and financial development, whereas the growth-promoting effects of trade and financial openness are confirmed.     

The reaction of the U.S. and the European Monetary Union to recent global financial crises

This paper analyzes the responses of the United States and the economies of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) to the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. The crisis illuminates the fundamental structural problems within the EMU, the European Union and the United States and the scale and scope of interconnections among the world economy. The paper focuses on the reactions of the real sector to the financial disturbances in these economies. Both comparative static and dynamic methodologies are used in order to appraise the scope and pace of adjustments in response to the global crisis.     

Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth in China: New Evidence from Panel Data

In this article, we investigate the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth in China by employing system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel data from twenty-eight Chinese provinces over the period 1978–2008. Our empirical results show that various measures of financial development are generally associated with economic growth. More specifically, the size and depth of the financial sector significantly influence economic growth. However, household saving is found to have a negative, but insignificant, effect on economic growth. Finally, we find that although several control variables show the expected signs, they are not always statistically significant. Human capital, openness to trade, and inflation positively influence economic growth.     

Drivers of economic and financial integration: A machine learning approach

We propose a new approach to identifying drivers of economic and financial integration, separately, and across emerging and developed countries. Our advanced machine learning technique allows for nonlinear relationships, corrects for over-fitting, and is less prone to noise. It also can tackle a large number of highly correlated explanatory variables and controls for multicollinearity. Results suggest that general economic growth, increasing international trade, and contained population growth have helped emerging countries catch up to the level of the economic integration of developed countries. However, slow financial development and a high level of investment riskiness have hindered the speed of emerging countries’ financial integration. Furthermore, the results suggest that integration is a gradual process and is not driven by cyclical or transitory events.     

Environmental and financial performance in the European manufacturing sector: An analysis of extreme tail dependency

In this study, we investigate the impact of environmental performance on financial performance. We argue that environmental performance heterogeneously affects firms with different profitability level. Using data for 288 European manufacturing firms over the period 2005–2016, we investigate the said relationship under the financial slack argument and the contrasting paradigms of neoclassical and the instrumental stakeholder theory. Employing a quantile regression framework enriched with a set of instrumental variables to more effectively approximate environmental performance, we find (i) firms with superior environmental performance tend to be more profitable; (ii) the relationship between environmental and financial performance can be characterised as positive and heterogeneous across the conditional distribution; (iii) financial and environmental performance are endogenously related only when high profitability firms are examined.     

Fuzzy logic and financial risk. A proposed classification of financial risk to the cooperative sector

Applying fuzzy logic to financial indicators is not a well disseminated proposal in the accounting field. This methodology allows observing the results of financial ratios with a broader perspective, showing neither completely true nor completely false results, since they can take an undetermined truthfulness value within a set of values, applying the fuzzy logic theory. The objective of this work is to introduce the reader to the application of fuzzy logic on financial risk indicators, using the ratios of one of the sector one cooperatives of Ecuador, and thus validate the level of relevance of this indicator when compared to the standardized objective of the CAMEL model and its risk rating. To apply this theory, linguistic variables were used, the ranges of which were evaluated in 0–1 scales. It was determined that the fuzzy methodology, applied to financial risks, presents a greater level of relevance toward a good credit rating, ensuring a low level of risk and a very good solvency. However, in periods of low economic activity it would stagnate in this level due to the increased risk.     

Economic Globalization and Financial Development in East Asia: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis

This study examines the role of economic globalization in financial development in eight East Asian economies. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals that cointegration is present among economic globalization, institutions, financial development, real gross domestic product per capita, and financial reforms. The Granger causality test results indicate that economic globalization has a significant causal influence on institutional quality, and institutional reforms have in turn facilitated and supported financial development, in particular of the banking sector in East Asia. Economic globalization is also found to have a favorable causal impact on stock market development without going through the institutional quality channel.