Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized.     

Is land cover an important asset for addressing the subjective landscape dimensions?

This paper explores which physical landscape components relate to subjective landscape dimensions. The ways in which people describe their surrounding cultural landscape was analyzed through an assessment of their representations of it. A special focus was placed on assessing the role of land cover as a means to communicate landscape meanings regarding a specific geographical region. The methodological framework was built on the basis of a questionnaire survey, multivariate statistical analysis and mapping approaches. This research shows that there is a set of physical landscape components that relate to subjective landscape dimensions which can be disclosed through the assessment of social representations. Enhancing and safeguarding those physical landscape components associated with the subjective landscape dimensions are important aspects in both framing and targeting land cover/use policies and decision making. Results also suggest that land cover can be understood as an important asset for describing landscapes as more than 30% of respondents referred to it when asked to represent the case study region of Alentejo in southern Portugal. This might mean that in addition to objective ecological and biological functions, land cover is also an important asset for evaluating subjective landscape dimensions in line with place attachment and landscape identity. Finally, the ways in which the empirical material gathered here can be used to inform policy and planning are explored.     

Could packers manipulate spot markets by tying contracts to futures prices? And do they?

Some producers, policy makers, and researchers claim that packers influence cash prices through contracts tied to futures prices. This paper provides a theoretical and empirical study on the price effects of contract-pricing terms linked to futures price and the related formula pricing terms linked to a cash price. We show that contract-pricing terms tied to a cattle futures price can theoretically be used to reduce the cash price. Furthermore, the model demonstrates that such tied-to-a-futures-price contract-pricing clauses and the related tied-to-a-cash-price formula pricing clauses can be substitutable tools for packers to depress the cash cattle price. Nevertheless, although empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model they show that while such manipulations may occur, their market power impact appears quite small.     

Does the Decoupling Reform Affect Agricultural Employment in Sweden? Evidence from an Exogenous Change

This study uses aggregated municipality data, for the years 2001–2009, to explore whether direct payments to farmers affect agricultural employment in Swedish municipalities. The decoupling reform in 2005 included a new grassland support payment accompanied by management obligations that had unexpectedly high redistributive consequences as it greatly increased common agricultural policy payments to municipalities with large areas of grassland. In some municipalities, total payments more than doubled. Thus, since the reform seems exogenous to the behaviour of farmers and the regional economy, the reform can be used to identify a subsidy effect. We find that a permanent increase in agricultural employment can be attributed to the new grassland support. Our results indicate that the grassland support generates an additional job at a cost of SEK 250,000, relative to the average agricultural wage of SEK 333,000. However, the subsidy effect is largely keeping jobs in agriculture, i.e. the grassland support may be slowing down the process of structural change in grassland regions.     

Is native timber tree intercropping an economically feasible alternative for smallholder farmers in the Philippines?

Integration of trees on upland farms in the Philippines has been slower than expected and desirable from an environmental perspective. Our economic and risk analysis points to current policies as part of the problem. The study compares three domesticated indigenous timber trees (Shorea contorta V., Pterocarpus indicus J., and Vitex parviflora W.) intercropped with maize against a benchmark of the widely used exotic mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla K.). We used a biophysical simulation model (WaNuLCAS 3.1) to represent interaction between trees and crops for a fundamental level of water, nutrient and light capture as the basis for production functions. External conditions affecting systems profitability were accounted for in the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). Elements of risk were introduced through Monte Carlo simulation. Study results revealed that from a farmer’s perspective intercropping systems provide similar (within an uncertainty range of + or ? 10%) returns to monocropping scenarios. When net subsidies and taxes are accounted for, social profitability evaluations favour tree intercropping at high tree densities. The net effect of the current bias in price policies towards food production therefore refrains farmers from making decisions to integrate trees on farms; a decision that is actually in the national interest on economic grounds, even without consideration of positive environmental effects.     

A model of the U.S. food system: What are the determinants of the state vulnerabilities to production shocks and supply chain disruptions?

We adapt a Ricardian general equilibrium model to the setting of U.S. domestic agri-food trade to assess states’ vulnerability to adverse production shocks and supply chain disruptions. To this end, we analyze how domestic crop supply chains depend on fundamental state-level comparative advantages—which reflect underlying differences in states’ cost-adjusted productivity levels—and thereby illustrate the capacity of states to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of such disruptions to the U.S. agricultural sector. Based on the theoretical framework and our estimates of the model's structural parameters obtained using data on U.S. production, consumption, and domestic trade in crops, we undertake simulations to characterize the welfare implications of counterfactual scenarios depicting disruptions to (1) states’ agricultural productive capacity, and (2) interstate supply linkages. Our results emphasize that the distributional impacts of domestic supply chain disruptions hinge on individual states’ agricultural productive capacities, and that the ability of states to mitigate the impacts of adverse production shocks through trade relies on the degree to which states are able to substitute local production shortfalls by sourcing crops from other states.     

Transdisciplinary landscape planning: Does the public have aspirations? Experiences from a case study in Ghent (Flanders,Belgium)

Since the end of the last century, the focus in landscape policy is shifting from traditional top-down perspectives into a bottom-up and integrated approach involving participation of local stakeholders. Keywords in the European Landscape Convention (ELC) include participation and awareness-raising: the public should be involved and their aspirations towards landscape should be assessed. This evolution in policy went with a new paradigm in landscape research: transdisciplinarity. Despite this evolution, literature indicates the necessity of a more general use of methods for public participation in landscape planning to meet the objectives of the Convention. The present paper explores ways to involve ‘the local people’ and to grasp their aspirations with regard to the landscape features of their surroundings. Point of departure is a questionnaire combining questions on landscape preference, environmental worldview and behaviour in the landscape. The questionnaire was distributed in a spatially stratified sample amongst inhabitants of the city of Ghent. The survey was set up without any connection to a concrete operational project that could convince respondents to participate. The response rate was relatively large despite a rather demanding questionnaire. More isolated target groups such as people with lower income, lower education level, and retired people were included, but foreigners, despite being a substantial part of the urban population, did not respond. The respondents appeared to be rather homogeneous as regards environmental worldview and aspirations in the landscape. It appeared that environment and landscape were not clearly distinguished between by the respondents. These results yield some suggestions for transdisciplinary landscape policy. A careful design of the sampling can enhance number and diversity of the respondents. Yet, it is equally important to develop a common language to communicate about landscape so that the question items can be clearly phrased and understood. Aspirations towards landscape should be defined more unambiguously so that they can be assessed alike. Awareness-raising for landscape may help to increase the number of local people that feel addressed when talking about landscape. When public support for landscape policy and management is taken seriously, more factors than only landscape should be taken into consideration.     

A cellular automata-based land-use model as an integrated spatial decision support system for urban planning in developing cities: The case of the Bogotá region

Bogotá and the 17 neighboring municipalities make up one of the biggest metropolitan areas in Latin America. However, despite strong functional interactions within the area, there is no official government body at this level in charge of coordinating authorities and providing solutions to the wide variety of issues arising in the regional urban land system. Aiming at providing an insight on future land-use developments linked to new transport infrastructures and at offering a tool to support territorial decision-making, this paper presents a cellular automata-based (CA) model based in Metronamica® software, that allows testing different scenarios based on potential land-use policies, environmental suitability and transport alternatives.There has not been, so far, an urban planning tool that accounts for the complexities of this region. CA-based land-use simulations constitute a useful approach to understanding the impacts of urban planning policies and regulations. This tool can help to improve inter-territorial and inter-institutional coordination, which through planning and management policies seek a spatially integrated development, with a long-term perspective.The CA-based model proposed was calibrated to reproduce land-use changes between 2007 and 2016 using different methods and indicators. The model was used to simulate and analyze eight scenarios with different policy directions of transport infrastructure in the future of the region. The results of the simulations reflect the dynamics of territorial occupation. The calibration indices in the experiment indicate a high degree of suitability for the CA Bogotá model, proving its effectiveness and potential as a useful tool for decision-making. The results show that occupation scenarios with restricted developable zones within the city, tend to have the greater dispersion rate in the study area, compared to scenarios where land development plans are promoted in Bogotá, which representing a more compact development.     

Is property assessment really essential for taxation? Evaluating the performance of an ‘Alternative Assessment’ method

Many countries evade the formal valuation of real property for taxation purposes by using qualitative and spatial criteria in order to pursue an equitable distribution of burden. This paper evaluates the performance of a prototypical setup as such, by analyzing the relationship between property value, household income and the actual tax paid, in the exact framework of which the qualitative criteria are set to determine tax assessment. Drawing on detailed data from the Israeli Household Expenditure Surveys 1997–2005, the strong correlation between the three variables is evident. Yet, the limited differences in rates, compared with large variation in property value, make it regressive. Policy implications are relevant for many other countries using non-ad valorem taxation.     

Land rights as an engine of growth? An analysis of Cambodian land grabs in the context of development theory

Forceful evictions have become a serious problem in Cambodia with an increasing number of families being deprived of their land, homes and livelihoods without compensation. This article analyses Cambodian land rights in the context of economic development theory. It assesses whether increasing economic inequalities, stemming from forceful evictions, can be categorized as an impediment to Cambodian economic growth. The Cambodian case illustrates that a lack of good governance due to corruption leads to the unequal distribution of land which, in turn, causes inequitable economic development. The paper concludes that Cambodia is trapped in a vicious cycle of inequality, which is upheld by elites who benefit from evictions and land concessions while evictees become trapped in poverty. Given that the population is growing angrier, the article warns of potential for a violent revolution that could have disastrous consequences for the Cambodian kingdom, a country that recently emerged from years of civil conflicts and is still in the process of rebuilding its social fabric.     

Has China’s new round of collective forest reforms caused an increase in the use of productive forest inputs?

Forestland tenure and financial incentives are the most important policy issue to sustainable forest resource management. The new wave of reform of collective forestland tenure (NRCFT) has been launched since 2003 and the governmental matching reform measures (MRMs) for the NRCFT have been introduced since 2009. The objective of these reforms is to enhance sustainable forest resource management in Chinese collective regions by encouraging rural households’ productive forest inputs. We use a unique dataset of 1778 sample households in 18 counties of nine provinces with six years and employ a fixed effects model with clustered standard errors. Our empirical results indicate that: 1) the NRCFT has increased households’ forestland area of different tenure types, and the effects of the MRMs on rural households’ labor input and production expenditures for forestry purposes are generally positive, especially household used forestland as collateral for a loan and afforestation or reafforestation subsidy and reform of Annual Allowance Cut (AAC) have significantly contributed to increase in the use of productive forest inputs; 2) the NRCFT and the MRMs have different impacts on the use of productive forest inputs for different tenure forests, and these reforms have caused the most significant changes in rural households’ production decision changes for household responsibility forestland; 3) both the NRCFT and the MRMs have significant effects on rural households’ rent-in and rent-out forestland; and 4) forestland fragmentations have caused additional labor and investment inputs for rural households’ forest resource management and protection. And finally, market drivers and household and village characteristics factors also affect households’ decisions for productive inputs for their managing forests.     

Water use and salinity in the Murray–Darling Basin: A state-contingent model*

The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. The object of the present paper is to show how the linear and non-linear programming models commonly used in modelling problems such as those arising in the Murray–Darling Basin may be adapted to incorporate a state-contingent representation of uncertainty. Estimates showing the potential value of improved water use are also derived.     

Quantitative evaluation of China’s cultivated land protection policies based on the PMC-Index model

The evaluation of cultivated land protection policies (CLPP) is the main basis for reducing the deviation of policy implementation and ensuring the sustainable and efficient operation of cultivated land protection. This paper used the PMC-Index model to establish an evaluation system for CLPP, and then quantitatively evaluated 8 CLPP in China since 2004 based on the PMC-Index and PMC-Surface. It was found that the PMC-Index of the selected 8 CLPP have shown an overall upward trend, with the score increased from 4.70 to 6.85. The average value of PMC-Index of the 8 policies was 5.74. 4 policies had a PMC-Index rating of good consistency, and 4 policies were acceptable consistency. This paper further compared and analyzed the differences between policies ranked the first (P8) and the last (P1). The results showed that the existing CLPP had much room for improvement in terms of the structure of policy tools, coordination of policy release agency, and the completeness of policy content. This study is good for fully understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the single policy for China’s cultivated land protection.     

Missing the forest for the data? Conflicting valuations of the forest and cultivable lands

In reaction to Greenpeace campaigns denouncing the impact of oil palm plantations in Southeast Asia, Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) – a major actor in the palm oil sector – adopted a zero-deforestation policy. The implementation of this policy raised a simple, albeit tricky, question: what is a forest? In response, Greenpeace, GAR and a consultancy firm developed a methodology for forest classification called the High Carbon Stock (HCS) Approach. Employing a vegetation classification based primarily on a threshold of carbon sequestration, the method identifies which forested zones to protect from conversion to agriculture. While currently gaining resonance in the realm of sustainability standards, its implementation in Indonesia and Liberia encountered resistance and criticism by rural dwellers and social NGOs. How did HCS advocates integrate local peoples’ concerns, interests and claims to compose commonality? By analysing the HCS methodology's content, implementation and progressive adaptation, this article shows how HCS advocates favoured a specific mode of composition: one that fits a liberal grammar and that has specific implications on the valuation of forest and cultivable lands. The HCS approach is thus more than a data collection tool; it encapsulates and reinforces a particular vision of the environment and how people should relate to it.     

Was China's Inflation in 2004 Led by an Agricultural Price Rise?

The escalation of agricultural prices starting from the end of 2003 raised concern about a new round of inflation in China. This paper assesses the impacts of China's 2003 agricultural output decline on agricultural prices and inflation using a general equilibrium model calibrated to actual data. The results indicate that the 5% decline in agricultural output can only explain 50% of observed changes in agricultural prices, 40% of observed changes in the consumer price index, and 20% of observed changes in the commodity price index. This suggests that China's 2003 agricultural output decline was not sufficient alone to produce the observed agricultural price increases and inflationary pressure in 2004. This position is counter to the conventional view that agricultural prices led to the 2004 inflation. L'escalade des prix agricoles qui a commencé vers la fin de 2003 a suscité des inquiétudes au sujet d'une nouvelle poussée inflationniste en Chine. Le présent article évalue l'impact de la diminution du rendement agricole de la Chine en 2003 sur les prix agricoles et l'inflation, à l'aide d'un modèle d'équilibre général calibréà partir de données réelles. D'après les résultats, la diminution de 5% du rendement agricole ne peut expliquer que 50% des changements observés dans les prix agricoles, que 40% des changements observés dans l'indice des prix à la consommation et que 20% des changements observés dans l'indice des prix des produits de base. Ces résultats autorisent à penser que la diminution du rendement agricole n'a pu à elle seule susciter la hausse observée des prix agricoles et la pression inflationniste en 2004. Cette position est contraire à l'explication classique selon laquelle les prix agricoles ont contribuéà l'inflation observée en 2004