Potential impact of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on the global forest sector

The effects of a transatlantic trade agreement on the global forest sector were assessed with the Global Forest Products Model, conditional on previous macroeconomic impacts predicted with a general equilibrium model. Comprehensive tariff elimination per se had little effect on the forest sector. However, with deeper reforms and integration consumption would increase twice as much in percent in the US as in the EU. Net trade decreased in the US more than in the EU while it increased in Asia. Consumers and producers’ welfare increased by $7000 million in the EU and $14,000 million in the US, but decreased in some third countries, especially in Asia.     

Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: Evidence from panel data

Impacts of exchange rates on international forest products trade are widely debated, but the empirical evidence regarding this issue is still inconclusive. Here, we report findings of the impacts of the exchange rates on the main forest product imports and exports of the US, from January 1989 to November 2004. Export data consisted of monthly series of the main products exported by the US to different countries. For imports we used monthly series of the principal products imported by the US from Canada, the major source of imports. The strongest evidence was obtained by pooling the data across countries and products. In the short run, exports were very elastic with respect to the exchange rate (−2.6), while imports were moderately elastic (1.2). In the long run, the elasticity decreased but remained significant (0.5 for both exports and imports). Appreciation of the US dollar tended to matter more than depreciation, but the hypothesis that the effect of exchange rate was symmetric could not be rejected.     

中德两国木质家具出口贸易的比较研究——基于1997--2009年数据的实证分析

通过1997--2009年的贸易数据对中德两国的木质家具出口贸易进行了比较研究。利用CMS模型测算了拉动两国木质家具出口增长的原因,进而通过显性比较优势指数和贸易结合度指数的测算,实证分析了中德两国各自具有比较优势的产品类型以及双边木质家具贸易的结合程度。结果发现,竞争力效应和一般增长效应分别是拉动中国和德国木质家具出口增长的主要因素,两国分别在不同种类的产品上具有比较优势且两国问的木质家具贸易结合程度不高,具有巨大的合作发展潜力。     

中挪水产品贸易的竞争性与互补性研究

本文在概述中挪水产品贸易现状的基础上,运用市场占有率指数、显示性比较优势指数、贸易竞争优势指数和贸易互补性指数、贸易结合度指数分别对中国和挪威水产品贸易的竞争力和互补性进行实证分析。结果表明:近年来中国的水产品竞争力有下降趋势,挪威的水产品竞争力则稳步提升;两国的水产品贸易有较强的互补性,但挪威对中国的互补性更强。     

中国鱿鱼生产及进出口贸易分析

鱿鱼是头足类中最重要的经济资源之一,中国鱿鱼的产量年际间波动较大,但也不乏独特的特征和规律,这对本国贸易的稳定和发展有着直接或者间接的影响。本文主要是对在对目前中国鱿鱼的生产和贸易两方面概述的基础上,着重剖析中国鱿鱼的生产供给和贸易状况。通过收集的数据信息,采用分析统计法,对中国鱿鱼不同种类的资源状况、国际生产中的地位以及进出口贸易的主要结构格进行研究,从而对目前中国鱿鱼市场的状况做整体的窥探和了解,并且针对其中存在的问题从拓展国内市场和优化进出口市场的角度提出相应的建议。     

中国渔业发展与水产品国际贸易

改革开放以来,中国渔业的发展举世瞩目,水产品总量居世界首位。作者从政策、方针、措施等方面阐述了中国渔业持续、快速、健康发展的根本原因及中国水产品在国际贸易方面取得的成就,同时也提出中国的渔业进入世界渔业大格局后应努力的方向     

Consequences of carbon offset payments for the global forest sector

Long-term effects of policies to induce carbon storage in forests were projected with the Global Forest Products Model. Offset payments for carbon sequestered in forest biomass of $15–$50/t CO₂e applied in all countries increased CO₂ sequestration in world forests by 5–14 billion tons from 2009 to 2030. Limiting implementation to developed countries exported environmental damage from North to South, as developing countries harvested more, decreasing their stored CO₂e. Substantially more CO₂e was sequestered by allocating a given budget to all countries rather than to developed countries only. As offset payments increased wood prices relatively more than they decreased production, timber revenues generally increased. In the few countries with timber revenues losses they were more than compensated by the offset payments.     

中国水产品出口贸易流量与潜力分析——基于引力模型的研究

中国作为世界上最大的水产品生产国,近30年水产品出口一直保持增长,在全球水产品市场中的比重大幅度增加,同时面临着与其他国家同业间的竞争。本文运用拓展的引力模型对1999年～2007年中国水产品出口相关的面板数据进行了实证检验,并对主要出口市场水产品贸易潜力进行了测算与分析。研究表明,引力模型只能对中国水产品出口贸易流量和潜力起到部分的解释作用,虽然中国水产品出口对欧美日等市场呈现出所谓的“过度贸易”,对泰国、印度尼西亚等表现为“贸易不足”,但这一总体趋势不会有太大改变。另外,进出口市场之间的产品竞争程度、进口市场的消费习惯也是进出口贸易可能的影响因素。     

青岛与湛江水产品国际贸易的SWOT分析

本文运用SWOT战略分析工具系统地分析了青岛与湛江两市在水产品国际贸易上具有的内部优势和劣势、面临的外部机遇和挑战。笔者认为两市虽然存在一定程度的竞争,但互补性是主要方面,加强合作将会达到一个共赢的结果,并提出了应该采取的战略对策。     

Benefits and costs of impeding free trade: Revisiting British Columbia's restrictions on log exports

The government of British Columbia (BC) imposes restrictions on the export of logs from public and private forestlands, primarily to promote local processing and associated employment benefits. Most economists wholeheartedly oppose BC's export restrictions, arguing that BC's citizens are worse off as a result of the government's measures. In this paper, it is shown that, while free trade in logs might well maximise global wellbeing, it might not necessarily result in the greatest benefit to BC. Indeed, both economic theory and a follow-up numerical analysis indicate that some restrictions on the export of logs can lead to higher welfare for BC than free trade. Thus, log export restrictions could be economically efficient from a local perspective, but only if the transaction costs of obtaining necessary permits are not excessive.     

基于VS和VSS指标的中美水产品产品内贸易分析

产品内贸易将中间品作为国际贸易的主要对象,可在一定程度上避开严格的农产品贸易壁垒,已成为水产品贸易发展的新动力。通过选取投入产出法中产品内贸易额(VS)和产品内贸易比率(VSS)指标对中美水产品产品内贸易进行测算发现,中美水产品产品内贸易处于上升势头,其VSS值已接近30%,水产品贸易对美的依赖程度过高,中方贸易以初级加工中间品为主处初级阶段,美方以深度加工和精细加工中间品为主处中高级阶段,中美产品内贸易波动较大。对此,中国应采取适当强化中国比较优势,适度增加水产品中间品加工贸易比例,积极分解产品内贸易环节,逐步实现产品内贸易市场多元格局等对策。     

Estimation of trade elasticities in the presence of trade barriers, multinationals and imperfect competition

Recent research highlights the role that multinational trading companies may play in impeding price transmission. In markets characterised by imperfect competition, an estimate of the partial elasticity of demand may be of limited practical value if no account is taken of the reaction of competitors. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential for market structure to affect price transmission and trade elasticities, and challenge the presumption that only government intervention can impact upon price transmission, with examples supporting why theory would suggest otherwise.     

东南亚金融危机对中国水产品对外贸易的影响

本文分析了东南亚金融危机对我国水产品对外贸易的影响,其重点阐述了这次金融危机造成的我国水产品对外贸易的滑坡及整个进出口贸易格局的变化     

野生动物贸易与野生动物保护

野生动物贸易与野生动物保护之间的冲突是显而易见的,但野生动物贸易如果有效利用也会成为野生动物保护的工具。     

Drivers of vertical intra‐industry trade: the case of the Hungarian agri‐food sector

This article investigates the drivers of vertical intra‐industry trade (VIIT) in Hungarian agri‐food trade with the European Union (EU). It identifies three possible ways to measure intra‐industry trade (IIT) flows (GHM, FF, and N methods) and defines six hypotheses to test for the drivers of VIIT with three panel data models (static, dynamic, and FEVD). The results suggest that factor endowments are negatively, while economic size is positively and significantly related to VIIT. Distance and VIIT were found to be negatively related as is commonly the case in the standard gravity model. It was also found that VIIT is greater if a New Member State (NMS) is exporting agri‐food produce to an NMS, while EU accession has ambiguously influenced the share of VIIT. In general, it seems that our results are independent from model estimations and interestingly they do not differ considerably as we a priori expected. Moreover, our results seem surprisingly robust across various measurements of ITT.     

Institutional quality and the duration of agri-food trade flows

Recent trade disruptions and their consequences on supply chains show the importance of stable trade relations for exporters' economic planning and importers' supply security. Both instability in trading partners' economic and institutional environment and differences between them are likely to exacerbate these disruptions. We investigate the role of exporters' institutional quality (IQ) and its similarity with importers' IQ in the stability of trade links. We focus on the trade links of agri-food products exported from sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to the European Union (EU-28) and consider three dimensions of IQ: ‘government selection, monitoring, and replacement’; ‘efficiency of policy formulation and implementation’; and ‘respect of citizens and state for institutions’. Using a discrete-time duration model, we show that the duration of SSA exports to the EU-28 increases with higher exporters' IQ and similarity of trading partners' IQ. The strongest impact of exporters' IQ is associated with ‘government selection, monitoring, and replacement’. In terms of the similarity of trading partners, ‘respect of citizens and state for institutions’ has the largest impact on trade durations. Our findings suggest that the improvement of countries' IQ may boost the stability of trade relationships. Moreover, the similarity of IQs between trading partners supports the stability of trade links and should be carefully considered when establishing new trade relations.     

The J-curve effect and the US–Canada forest products trade

This paper examines the dynamic effect of the US–Canada exchange rate on bilateral trade of forest products between the two countries. Special attention is given to investigate the J-curve hypothesis: whether or not the trade balance for US forest products trade with Canada benefits from a decline in the value of the US dollar. We adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to estimate quarterly bilateral trade data between the US and Canada from 1989 to 2005. We find little evidence of the J-curve phenomenon for US forest products trade with Canada.