Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Japan using realized volatility

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the effectiveness of Bank of Japan's foreign exchange interventions on the daily realized volatility of USD/JPY exchange rates using high frequency data. Following Huang and Tauchen (2005) and Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard, 2004, Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard, 2006, we use bi-power variation to decompose daily realized volatility into two components: the smooth persistent and the discontinuous jump components. We model exchange rate returns, the different components of realized volatility and the central bank intervention using a system of simultaneous equations. We find strong support that interventions by Bank of Japan had increased both the continuous and the jump components of daily realized volatility. This suggests that the interventions by Bank of Japan had increased market volatility which not only caused short-lived positive jumps, but were also persistent over time. We did not find any evidence that interventions were effective in influencing the exchange rate returns for the entire sample period.     

Capital gains tax and individual trading: The case of Japan

Japan implemented a capital gains tax reform and reduced its flat rate in 2003. This study attempts to explain how this has contributed to the recent surge of individual trading, using three different methods of analysis. First, we perform a time-series analysis with the aggregate, market-level data. Second, we use firm-level, by-stock data to conduct a similar time-series analysis, as well as a panel data analysis. Third, we examine the price-change sensitivity of winners’ volume before and after the reform. The results clearly indicate that the tax cut has helped expand individual trading, as the average tax rate negatively correlates significantly with individual trading.     

Tax policy and reform in Asian countries: Thailand''s perspective

This paper gives overviews of Thailand's tax system covering major taxes administered by the central government and the local taxes administered by the local government. Recent tax reform experiences are discussed at length starting from the introduction of value added tax (VAT) replacing the business tax to customs tariff reform. Current issues on taxation are also highlighted ranging from tax base, direct and indirect taxation, decentralization impediments. Furthermore, the government is implementing modern and cutting-edge technology in tax administration, thereby providing effective and efficient e-government services to the Thai people. This paper discusses the Roadmap for Tax Reform that would outline the framework for future direction of taxation in Thailand. Finally, the paper gives important insights on tax issues, and draws important conclusions for the future of tax reform in Thailand.     

印花税政策调整对市场反应影响研究

文章使用中国A股市场的日数据检验了印花税税率的调整对市场流动性、市场的波动和股票异常收益率的影响.实证的结果表明,印花税税率的变化和市场流动性呈反向关系,但并不总是如此.与一般认知不同的是,无论印花税税率的增加还是减少都不会引起市场波动加剧.相应的,股票异常收益率对对印花税税率的变化也并不总是敏感的.基于上述实证结果,文章认为印花税并不是调控证券市场的有效政策工具.     

Intraday return and volatility spillover mechanism from Chinese to Japanese stock market

We analyze the mechanism of return and volatility spillover effects from the Chinese to the Japanese stock market. We construct a stock price index comprised of those companies that have substantial operations in China. This China-related index responds to changes in the Shanghai Composite Index more strongly than does the TOPIX (the market index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange). This result suggests that China has a large impact on Japanese stocks via China-related firms in Japan. Furthermore, we find evidence that this response has become stronger as the Chinese economy has gained importance in recent years.     

日本消费税问题的由来及其改革展望

消费税从提出到实施及其之后的改革一直是日本政治经济中的一个敏感性话题,反映了日本政治、经济及社会背景的深刻变化,直接原因是高居不下的财政赤字及不断攀升的债务负担,根本原因在于长期经济衰退使得政府财源枯竭,同时严重的老龄化又使得社会保障支出面临巨大压力,选举制度下的政党政治斗争也放大了消费税效应,从目前情况看,提高消费税税率似乎是一个必然选择.     

Reforming the Corporate Income Tax: The Case for a Hybrid Cash-flow Tax

Summary This paper argues for the adoption of a hybrid cash-flow tax on corporations that, on the one hand, taxes only corporate rents as they accrue, and, on the other hand, treats real and financial transactions neutrally. It is, therefore, a superior tax compared to the conventional corporate income tax – on both economic and administrative grounds. Its design also addresses the usual concerns associated with cash-flow taxation. The base of this hybrid cash-flow tax is the aggregate net cash inflow of combined real and financial transactions excluding capital expenditures, for which conventional depreciation allowances are retained with interest as compensation for the opportunity cost of equity capital. Furthermore, it is argued that it should be implemented on a destination basis that would render transfer pricing and thin capitalization moot. This paper is a revised version of an IMF working paper (WP/06/117) previously circulated under the title “A Superior Hybrid Cash-Flow Tax on Corporations.” The views expressed herein are those of the author; they do not necessarily reflect IMF policy and should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. Helpful comments from Richard Bird, Isaias Coelho, John Isaac, Michael Keen, Russell Krelove, Alan Macnaughton, Peter Mullins, and two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Discussions with John Isaac have been particularly valuable. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Structural breaks in the mean of dividend-price ratios: Implications of learning on stock return predictability

In their out-of-sample predictions of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks, Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) implicitly assume that economic agents’ perception of the regime-specific mean for the dividend-price ratio is time-invariant within a regime. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and employ least squares learning with constant gain (or constant-gain learning) in estimating economic agents’ time-varying perception for the mean of dividend-price ratio. We obtain better out-of-sample predictions of stock returns than in Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) for both the U.S. and Japanese stock markets. Our empirical results suggest that economic agents’ learning plays an important role in the dynamics of stock returns.     

Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited

Previous studies [e.g., Hamori, S., 2000. Volatility of real GDP: some evidence from the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan. Japan and the World Economy 12, 143–152; Ho, K.Y., Tsui, A.K.C., 2003. Asymmetric volatility of real GDP: some evidence from Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Japan and the World Economy 15, 437–445; Fountas, S., Karanasos, M., Mendoza, A., 2004. Output variability and economic growth: the Japanese case. Bulletin of Economic Research 56, 353–363] find high volatility persistence of economic growth rates using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications. This paper reexamines the Japanese case, using the same approach and showing that this finding of high volatility persistence reflects the Great Moderation, which features a sharp decline in the variance as well as two falls in the mean of the growth rates identified by Bai and Perron's [Bai, J., Perron, P., 1998. Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica 66, 47–78; Bai, J., Perron, P., 2003. Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 18, 1–22] multiple structural change test. Our empirical results provide new evidence. First, excess kurtosis drops substantially or disappears in the GARCH or exponential GARCH model that corrects for an additive outlier. Second, using the outlier-corrected data, the integrated GARCH effect or high volatility persistence remains in the specification once we introduce intercept-shift dummies into the mean equation. Third, the time-varying variance falls sharply, only when we incorporate the break in the variance equation. Fourth, the ARCH in mean model finds no effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth or of output growth on its volatility.     

国际金融危机背景下的金融交易税:从理论到实践

国际金融危机席卷全球之后,金融交易税重新受到高度关注,各国陆续提出了若干种实施方案。本文首先回顾了当前国际金融危机下的全球经济走势及各国提出金融交易税的宏观经济背景,其次阐述了金融交易税理论的内涵及效应,并结合国内外关于金融交易税的各类研究探讨交易税如何影响金融市场的有效性和稳定性。论文不仅比较了历史上各国征收金融交易税的经验及效果,而且估计了调整证券交易印花税对中国股市的实际影响。最后,分析了国际上开征金融交易税的可行性,并就中国金融交易税的方案提出政策建议。     

Short selling and stock prices with regime switching in the absence of market makers: The case of Japan

This paper investigates the relation between short selling and stock price at an aggregated market level. In order to study the differential impact of market microstructure on short selling, the data from Japanese stock markets are used. Both traditional regression and Markov switching models are used to compare Japanese results to those of U.S. and to admit non-stationary relation between short selling and stock price, respectively. Particularly, relatively long period (1978–2002) of analysis including bullish and bearish periods gives a good testable bed for studying the effect of short selling on stock price according to market condition. The empirical findings reveal that percentage change of short interests has a statistically significant positive relation with stock returns. It gives regulators policy implication that short selling is not a destabilizing activity, but an acceptable form of trading even in the absence of market makers. And short selling information cannot be used as an indicator for predicting future stock markets.     

Seasonality and stock returns: some evidence from Japan

This paper examines the seasonal properties of Japanese stock prices using time series data from 1971 through 1997. Of interest are the influences of particular months of the year, which this study measures for the Tokyo stock price index (TOPIX), and indices that represent companies with large, medium, and small numbers of listed shares. The monthly effects in the various stock indices are confirmed for the total sample period. In contrast, such effects are not found for the latter half of the sample, and seasonal unit roots are rejected for all indices. That is, the seasonality of Japanese stock price indices is found to be deterministic but not stochastic.     

20世纪80年代以来日本税制改革综述

现行日本税制形成于第二次世界大战后的经济改革时期，对日本经济的恢复和发展起到了积极的作用。但进入20世纪80年代以来，日本税制越来越无法适应时代的要求。伴随着经济、社会形势的变化，自80年代末以消费税的引进为开始，日本进行了一系列以财政健全化和经济活性化为目的的税制改革．进入2000年以来，小泉政府对税制改革寄与了更高的期望，希望通过相应的税收调整来应对经济的不振。因为面对当前的财政困境，可采取的政策手段已很有限，能对当前景气对策起到明显作用的惟有税收政策．     

税制改革和国有商业银行资本充足率的内源性提升

金融部门被认为是现代市场经济的枢纽和命脉,其效率水平会对整个经济的效率水平产生基础性影响。资本充足率是衡量银行抵御风险能力和稳健性的重要指标,我国国有商业银行资本充足率状况不容乐观。税收作为国家主要政策手段,是金融发展的重要制度因素。文章从税制改革角度,探讨提升国有商业银行资本充足率的问题。     

沪深股市收益率及波动性特征分析研究

中国金融市场的波动性从来都是备受关注的,本文对2000年1月4日～2010年5月26日沪深两市的收益率数据进行实证研究,得出中国金融市场收益率具有尖峰厚尾的特征和ARCH效应。并检验股市的溢出效应与杠杆效应等一系列特征,得出深市具有单向的溢出效应以及沪深两市具有正的杠杆效应。最后结合中国的股市现状给出相关分析与建议。     

中日韩与东盟(10+3)税收协调研究

中日韩与东盟经济合作的现状决定了(10 3)国家间区域性税收协调的深度和广度。本文通过分析中日韩与东盟(10 3)区域税收国际协调现状、困难,提出了(10 3)税收国际协调应该遵循的原则,建议应建立中日韩与东盟(10 3)区域税收协调机制,以及消除货物、服务贸易中阻碍商品、人员自由流动、涉及投资所得等税收因素,以促进(10 3)国家间商品、资本、劳务、知识产权等的自由流动。     

当前我国税制的“税负刚性”特征、效应及政策建议——基于2013-2016年制造业上市公司数据的实证分析

2012年以来,我国经济增速明显放缓,经济结构面临重大调整,制造业普遍盈收水平下滑,而企业的利润税负水平却明显上升,"税负重感"增加。究其原因,是我国以流转税为主的税制存在"税负刚性"的特征和效应,实则反映了我国税制改革的迫切性。文章利用2013—2016年我国制造业上市公司的全样本数据,证实了"税负刚性"的存在性和显著性,并进一步结合其结构性效应的分析,对当前的税制改革提出了相应的政策建议。     

Asymmetric volatility of real GDP: some evidence from Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States

The recent empirical investigation of conditional volatility in real GDP growth rates of Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States by Hamori [Jpn. World Econ. 12 (2000) 143] finds no evidence of asymmetry. This paper re-visits the issue of asymmetric volatility using a similar approach with some modifications. We find statistically significant evidence of asymmetric volatility in the real growth rates of the United States and Canada. As such, it may be premature to conclude that business cycle indicators generally do not exhibit volatility asymmetry.     

财富的平衡杠杆--个人所得税的调节机制及改革

财富的不均衡会引起社会的动荡,个人所得税是调节财富不均的重要手段之一。现行的个人所得税不适应当代社会经济的发展,不能真正起到调节收入分配的作用。本文对现行的个人所得税存在问题进行分析,指出其不足之处,提出其改革和完善措施。     

Global commodity prices and global stock market volatility shocks: Effects across countries

We investigate the time-varying dynamics of global stock market volatility, commodity prices, domestic output and consumer prices. We find (i) stock market volatility and commodity price shocks impact each other and the economy in a gradual and endogenous adjustment process, (ii) impact of commodity price shock on global stock market volatility is significant during global financial crises, (iii) effects of global stock market volatility on the US output are amplified by endogenous commodity price responses, (iv) effects of global stock market volatility shocks on the economy are heterogeneous across nations and relatively larger in twelve developed countries, (v) four developing/small economies are more vulnerable to commodity price shocks.