The Value of Corporate Risk Management

We model and estimate the value of corporate risk management. We show how risk management can add value when revenues and costs are nonlinearly related to prices and estimate the model by regressing quarterly firm sales and costs on the second and higher moments of output and input prices. For a sample of 34 oil refiners, we find that hedging concave revenues and leaving concave costs exposed each represent between 2% and 3% of firm value. We validate our approach by regressing Tobin's q on the estimated value and level of risk management and find results consistent with the model.     

A fractional cointegration approach to testing the Ohlson accounting based valuation model

We examine the long-run relationship between market value, book value, and residual income in the Ohlson (Contemp Acc Res 11(2):661–687, 1995) model. In particular, we test if market value is cointegrated with book value and residual income in light of their non-stationary behaviors. We find that cointegration applies to only 51 % of the sample firms, casting doubt that book value and residual income alone are adequate in tracking variations in market value, yet we find that market value is fractional cointegrated with book value and residual income for 89 % of the sample firms. This implies that the long-run relationship follows a slow but mean-reverting process. Our results therefore support the Ohlson model.     

Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models

This research is the first to examine the empirical predictions of a real option-pricing model using a large sample of market prices. We find empirical support for a model that incorporates the option to wait to develop land. The option model has explanatory power for predicting transactions prices over and above the intrinsic value. Market prices reflect a premium for the option to wait to invest that has a mean value of 6% in our sample. We also estimate implied standard deviations for individual commercial property prices ranging from 18 to 28% per year.     

Employee Stock Option Exercise and Firm Cost

We develop an empirical model of employee stock option exercise that is suitable for valuation and allows for behavioral channels. We estimate exercise rates as functions of option, stock, and employee characteristics using all employee exercises at 88 public firms, 27 of them in the S&P 500. Increasing vesting frequency from annual to monthly reduces option value by 11% to 16%. Men exercise faster, reducing value by 2% to 4%, while top employees exercise slower, increasing value by 2% to 7%. Finally, we develop an analytic valuation approximation that is more accurate than methods used in practice.     

Non-marketability and the value of employee stock options

We adapt the Benninga et al. (2005) framework to value employee stock options (ESOs). The model quantifies non-diversification effects, is computationally simple, and provides an endogenous explanation of ESO early-exercise. Using a proprietary dataset of ESO exercise events we measure the non-marketability ESO discount. We find that the ESO value on the grant date is approximately 45% of a similar plain vanilla Black–Scholes value. The model is aligned with empirical findings of ESOs, gives an exercise boundary of ESOs and can serve as an approximation to the fair value estimation of share-based employee and executive compensation. Using the model we give a numerical measure of non-diversification in an imperfect market.     

Assessing the welfare change from a pension reform

We study the welfare implications of a hypothetical reform of the Swedish public pension system where eligibility to pension benefits is delayed by 3 years. Using an option value model, we consider the labor supply responses to the reform and develop a compensating variation (CV) measure to analytically assess the individual welfare changes in a random utility framework. We find that a purely budgetary calculation (neglecting individual labor supply responses) overestimates the welfare loss by more than 65%. We also develop a method for testing between a binary and a multinomial option value model, where the binary one is nested in the multinomial model in a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model framework. The binary model cannot be rejected.     

Dynamic ownership and private benefits

We quantify private benefits of control by estimating a structural model of optimal shareholding using data on the ownership dynamics of Italian public companies. In the model, shareholders must maintain a minimum stake in the company to extract control benefits, which leads to infrequent trading of large blocks, and which is consistent with the empirical evidence. We estimate that control benefits account for 2% (4%) of the market value of the equity (block), and controlling shareholders earn a sizeable premium from the block holding on top of the market value of the shares. Also, we provide evidence that large block ownership and ownership persistence are associated with higher stock returns.     

The real effects of credit default swaps

We examine the effect of introducing credit default swaps (CDSs) on firm value. Our model allows for dynamic investment and financing, and bondholders can trade in the CDS market. The model incorporates both negative and positive effects of CDSs. CDS markets lead to more liquidations, but they also reduce the probability of costly debt renegotiation and reduce costly equity financing. After calibrating the model, we find that firm value increases by 2.9% on average with the introduction of a CDS market. Firms also invest more and increase leverage. The effect on firm value is strongest for small, financially constrained, and low productivity firms.     

Energy price uncertainty and the value premium

This paper examines the impact of energy price uncertainty on a range of value anomalies. We demonstrate that the value premium is substantially stronger in periods of heightened energy price uncertainty. Energy price uncertainty exerts an asymmetric effect on the value anomalies, whereby downside energy price uncertainty accentuates the return differences between value and growth stocks compared to upside energy uncertainty. These findings are consistent with the argument that value firms possess a larger amount of inflexible assets than growth firms. Therefore, they struggle more to adjust in periods of elevated energy price uncertainty. We also demonstrate that energy price uncertainty has predictive power on the value premium one-month ahead. Using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares predictive model, energy price uncertainty can help mean-variance investors to obtain a positive annual utility gain across the value anomalies for up to 16.71%.     

Equity Misvaluation and Default Options

We study whether default options are mispriced in equity values by employing a structural equity valuation model that explicitly takes into account the value of the option to default (or abandon the firm) and uses firm‐specific inputs. We implement our model on the entire cross section of stocks and identify both over‐ and underpriced equities. An investment strategy that buys undervalued stocks and shorts overvalued stocks generates an annual four‐factor alpha of about 11% for U.S. stocks. The model's performance is stronger for stocks with a higher value of the default option, such as distressed or highly volatile stocks.     

Squaring venture capital valuations with reality

We develop a valuation model for venture capital–backed companies and apply it to 135 US unicorns, that is, private companies with reported valuations above $1 billion. We value unicorns using financial terms from legal filings and find that reported unicorn post-money valuations average 48% above fair value, with 14 being more than 100% above. Reported valuations assume that all shares are as valuable as the most recently issued preferred shares. We calculate values for each share class, which yields lower valuations because most unicorns gave recent investors major protections such as initial public offering (IPO) return guarantees (15%), vetoes over down-IPOs (24%), or seniority to all other investors (30%). Common shares lack all such protections and are 56% overvalued. After adjusting for these valuation-inflating terms, almost one-half (65 out of 135) of unicorns lose their unicorn status.     

An accounting-based valuation approach to valuing corporate governance in Taiwan

We estimate the proportion of firm value that is related to governance mechanisms in a cointegrated system based on the Feltham and Ohlson (1995) accounting-based valuation model. Using a comprehensive set of 32 governance measures in five categories for Taiwan firms, we find that governance measures related to ownership structure and the divergence between cash flow rights and control rights capture variations in stock prices over time. Controlling for book value, net operating assets, and abnormal operating earnings which account for up to 59% of firms’ equity value over time, the governance measures in addition track at least 39% of the equity value of these firms. We further identify that the shareholdings of board directors and supervisors, shareholdings of the controlling family, the critical control level of a firm, and the voting rights of the largest shareholder for ultimate control are sufficient governance measures to track changes in firm value. Our results shed some light on the extent of the equity value that can be generated by a firm’s governance practices and the types of corporate governance mechanisms that are especially important for firms with similar ownership structure and controls.     

Why does book-to-market value of equity forecast cross-section stock returns?

In this paper, we derive a model of book-to-market value of equity based on the present value model and estimate it using panel data on individual stocks. We explicitly include in the model all the determinants of book-to-market except the firm-specific discount rate, which we capture using fixed individual effects in the panel data model. The model is particularly successful, explaining nearly 90% of the time series and cross-section variation in the ratio of book-to-market value of equity. Moreover, the estimated firm-specific fixed effects are more successful than the most recent book-to-market value of equity in forecasting subsequent returns. This is consistent with an efficient market in which book-to-market is a proxy for risk.     

Collateralization,leverage, and stressed expected loss

We describe a general equilibrium model with a banking system in which the deposit bank collects deposits from households and the merchant bank provides funds to firms. The merchant bank borrows collateralized short-term funds from the deposit bank. In an economic downturn, as the value of collateral decreases, the merchant bank must sell assets on short notice, reinforcing the crisis, and defaults if its cash buffer is insufficient. The deposit bank suffers from losses because of the depreciated assets. If the value of the deposit bank's assets is insufficient to cover deposits, it also defaults. Deposits are insured by the government, with a premium paid by the deposit bank equal to its expected loss on the deposits. We define the bank's capital shortfall in the crisis as the expected loss on deposits under stress. We calibrate the model on the U.S. economy and show how this measure of stressed expected loss behaves for different calibrations of the model. A 40% decline of the securities market would induce a loss of 12.5% in the ex-ante value of deposits.     

Reputation and investor activism: A structural approach

We measure the impact of reputation for proxy fighting on investor activism by estimating a dynamic model in which activists engage a sequence of target firms. Our estimation produces an evolving reputation measure for each activist and quantifies its impact on campaign frequency and outcomes. We find that high reputation activists initiate 3.5 times as many campaigns and extract 85% more settlements from targets, and that reputation-building incentives explain 20% of campaign initiations and 19% of proxy fights. Our estimates indicate these reputation effects combine to nearly double the value that activism adds for target shareholders.     

现金流权与控制权分离下的公司价值--基于我国家族上市公司的实证研究

为探究现金流权与控制权的分离对我国家族上市公司价值的作用机理以及影响程度,本文首先建立了一个基于控制权私人收益的理论模型。然后,本文以121家家族上市公司为样本,对现金流权、控制权、现金流权与控制权的分离率以及影响公司价值的诸多因素进行细致的分析。研究表明,我国家族上市公司现金流权与控制权的分离率平均为62%,并且此分离程度在东亚为最高。另外,研究发现:我国家族上市公司价值与现金流权比例显著负相关,这可能是与控股股东的“掠夺性分红”行为有关;我国家族上市公司价值与控制权比例显著负相关,与独立董事人数占董事会比例、负债规模、净资产收益率均不相关,与公司规模显著负相关;公司规模与现金流权与控制权的分离率显著负相关。     

On the value and determinants of the interest tax shields

We use a dynamic model of the firm to ascertain both the value and the determinants of the debt tax shields. For a representative U.S. firm, we find that the value of the interest tax shields represents less than 5 % of firm value, and it varies considerably across U.S. industries. Our results also show that this component of firm value behaves counter-cyclically over the business cycle. Finally, besides the interest rate on debt and the corporate income tax rate, we find that the curvature of the production function is one of the main determinants of the tax advantage of debt.     

Analytic value function for optimal regime-switching pairs trading rules

We introduce a regime-switching Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (O–U) model to address an optimal investment problem. Our study gives a closed-form expression for a regime-switching pairs trading value function consisting of probability and expectation of the double boundary stopping time of the Markov-modulated O–U process. We derive analytic solutions for the homogenous and non-homogenous ODE systems with initial value conditions for probability and expectation of the double boundary stopping time, and translate the solutions with boundary value conditions into solutions with initial value conditions. Based on the smoothness and continuity of the value function, we can obtain the optimum of the value function with thresholds and guarantee the existence of optimal thresholds in a finite closed interval. Our numerical analysis illustrates the rationality of theoretical model and the shape of transition probability and expected stopping time, as well as discusses sensitivity analysis in both one-state and two-state regime-switching models. We find that the optimal expected return per unit time in the two-state regime-switching model is higher than that of one-state regime-switching model. Likewise, the regime-switching model’s optimal thresholds are closer and more symmetric to the long-term mean.     

The Mode of Acquisition in Takeovers: Taxes and Asymmetric Information

We develop a model in which the mode of acquisition conveys information concerning the value of the bidder. The model incorporates the possibility that offers containing both cash and stock can be made in a setting consistent with the U.S. tax code. We demonstrate that bidders with unfavorable private information about their equity value choose offers containing some stock to avoid the capital gains tax consequences of cash offers. The model yields a number of unique predictions about the construction of acquisition offers. We present evidence consistent with the model.     

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

Abstract:  In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems.