Nothing to hide: Commitment to,compliance with,and impact of the special data dissemination standard

Understanding why states voluntarily cede power to international institutions, and if those institutions fulfill their stated goals, remain a pressing question in international relations. In order to evaluate the material and normative logics that may drive this type of behavior, this paper considers state commitment to and compliance with the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) initiative launched by the IMF in 1996. This effort seeks to enhance the availability of comprehensive economic data based on best dissemination practices to facilitate pursuing sound macroeconomic policies. Using panel data on 120 countries during the 1996–2011 period, we find that commitment to the SDDS occurs when costs for states are low, and that compliance with the SDDS initiative is associated with increased data transparency after controlling for self‐section bias. Our results are robust to controlling for endogeneity, alternative sample, and estimation methods.     

Imperfect Tax Compliance and the Optimal Provision of Public Goods

Our aim in this paper is to investigate whether the presence of imperfect income tax compliance affects the optimal provision of public goods within a framework in which public expenditure is financed by a general income tax that also accomplishes redistributive goals. We first derive the income tax structure, and then a generalized Samuelson rule. We argue that, under imperfect income tax compliance, it is desirable to distort public–good supply downwards, in the sense that the sum of marginal rates of substitution between public and private consumption must exceed their marginal rate of transformation.     

Respondent uncertainty in a contingent market for carbon offsets

The main objective of this paper is to provide additional empirical evidence of what explains respondent uncertainty in contingent valuation (CV) and how this in turn affects stated willingness to pay (WTP). Air travelers asked to pay a carbon travel tax to offset carbon emissions from flying were asked how likely it is that they will actually pay if the tax is voluntary. When changing the market compliance imperative from a mandatory carbon tax to a voluntary contribution, a third of all air travelers consider it unlikely they will actually pay their stated WTP amount. An ordered probit estimation approach is applied to identify the sources of respondent uncertainty. Besides the bid price, respondent sense of responsibility and belief in the effectiveness of the voluntary carbon market are among the main reasons for the experienced uncertainty.     

Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data

We conduct predictive validity tests using revealed and stated behavior data from a panel survey of North Carolina coastal households. The application is to hurricane evacuation behavior. Data was initially collected after Hurricane Bonnie led to hurricane evacuations in North Carolina in 1998. Respondents were asked for their behavioral intentions if a hurricane threatened the North Carolina coast during the 1999 hurricane season. Following Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999, a follow-up survey was conducted to see if respondents behaved as they intended. A jointly estimated revealed and stated behavior model indicates that the hypothetical and real evacuation behavior is based on the same choice process. Using predictions from this model with a hypothetical bias correction, we find that it predicts actual evacuation behavior with a small forecast error. These results suggest that stated behavior data has some degree of predictive validity.     

Exploring the failure of foreign aid: The role of incentives and information

The stated purpose of foreign aid is to promote economic and human development. Recently, the ability of foreign aid to achieve its goals is called into question. Widespread conceptual and empirical literature suggests that foreign aid is ineffective. This paper explores the failure of foreign aid relying on the role of both incentives and information. The success of aid depends on incentives faced by all parties in donor and recipient countries. In addition, both donors and recipients must obtain the necessary information to actually target and achieve desired goals. This analysis provides a double-edged sword to explain why foreign aid fails to achieve development goals.     

Regulatory performance of audit tournaments and compliance observability

This paper examines the effectiveness of traditional regulatory schemes and newly emerging social information schemes for achieving compliance. Our experiment focuses on two stochastic audit schemes for enforcing regulatory compliance. In the Random Audit mechanism firms are randomly chosen for inspection. In the Tournament Audit mechanism the probability of inspection increases with the degree of estimated underreporting. To study the effects of social information, the experiment varies the observability of identity, output, and compliance decisions. Optimal output is theoretically independent of the auditing scheme, but equilibrium reporting is higher under the Tournament mechanism than Random auditing. Experimental findings are broadly consistent with the theoretical predictions for reporting, but deviate modestly for output. In particular, we find that average output is lower and reporting is higher in the Tournament treatment compared to the Random Audit treatment. At the individual level, a majority of participants misreported in most periods. Social observability does not affect output or reporting significantly in either of the audit treatments.     

Government Underpricing of Share‐Issue Privatizations

Abstract *** :  The purposes of the paper are to determine whether governments underprice shares in fixed‐price share‐issue privatizations (SIPs) and, if so, what their motivations are for doing so. This paper develops three models of SIP underpricing: one based on revenue goals, one based on political goals and an inclusive model which supposes that the level of underpricing depends on both government revenue goals and political goals. These models are estimated using an international sample of 104 SIPs from 25 countries. We find that, on average, SIPs are underpriced by approximately the same amount as private sector initial public offerings (IPOs). This is not consistent with the sole goal of revenue maximization because SIPs should not require the same degree of underpricing as IPOs. The inclusive regression fits the data well and indicates that both revenue and political goals affect the level of SIP underpricing .     

略论中国货币政策有效性

在界定货币政策有效性的概念基础上对中国的货币政策效果进行实证分析,进而提出提高中国货币政策有效性的对策建议。货币政策目标的实现程度是衡量货币政策有效性的标志。货币政策有效性的内涵就是货币政策具有真实效应,能够对真实经济变量产生影响。货币政策有效性就是货币政策能够在保持物价稳定、国际收支平衡的前提下促进经济增长和降低失业。     

Cost credibility and the stated preference analysis of public goods

Two recent stated preference studies include questions that explore participants’ beliefs regarding the cost amount stated in the valuation question in relation to the cost to them if the project were implemented. Results from these studies suggest that a significant proportion of people do not believe these stated cost amounts. This paper explores the implications of participants answering valuation questions that are not consistent with their beliefs regarding stated costs. As an example, the paper develops a response model for dichotomous choice stated preference questions. Participants gather project information through the stated preference experiment, form a prior distribution of costs, update the distribution of costs based on a survey's stated cost and then respond to the dichotomous choice stated preference question. The model suggests that participants will not generally respond truthfully in the sense that they may say no to a stated cost that is less than their willingness to pay for a project or yes to a stated cost that is more than their willingness to pay. While the model findings suggest potentially serious problems with stated preference estimation, the observed patterns of disbelief from the empirical studies result in downwardly biased estimates of mean willingness to pay.     

公共服务满意度、税制公平与纳税遵从——来自中国的证据

公共服务与税收公平是影响纳税遵从的重要因素。基于中国背景,将公共服务满意度、税制公平与纳税遵从纳入公平理论框架分析三者之间的作用机制后发现:公共服务满意度影响纳税人对税制公平的评价,无论是对政府部门的日常行政服务还是其他公共部门的基础公共服务而言,公共服务满意度越高,纳税人对税制公平的评价就越高;同时,税制公平对纳税遵从有正向影响,纳税人对税制公平的评价越高,其纳税遵从度就越高;税制公平评价在公共服务满意度与纳税遵从之间发挥着中介的作用。因此,现阶段提高我国公众纳税遵从度可以从改善公共服务和强化税制公平两个角度入手。     

Should all Choices Count? Using the Cut-Offs Approach to Edit Responses in a Choice Experiment

Should we give equal weight to all responses in a choice experiment? Previous Choice Modelling papers have considered the issue of the internal consistency of choices—such as the extent to which strictly-dominated options are chosen. In this paper, a different focus is employed, namely the extent to which people choose options which violate their stated upper or lower limits for the acceptable levels for individual attributes. Since hypothetical over-statement of WTP has been a focus in stated preference studies, we concentrate on violations of stated upper limits of WTP, and explore the effects of “editing” such choices using a variable censoring rule and alternative approaches to re-classifying choices. The empirical case study is a choice experiment on eco-tourists in Rwanda. Our main conclusion is that the suggested approach offers a useful way of imposing consistency on choices, and that editing choices in this manner has an appreciable impact on estimated willingness to pay. However, issues remain with regard to explaining why people apparently violate their stated maximum willingness to pay.     

Approximations in power transmission planning: implications for the cost and performance of renewable portfolio standards

Renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) are popular market-based mechanisms for promoting development of renewable power generation. However, they are usually implemented without considering the capabilities and cost of transmission infrastructure. We use single- and multi-stage planning approaches to find cost-effective transmission and generation investments to meet single and multi-year RPS goals, respectively. Using a six-node network and assuming a linearized DC power flow, we examine how the lumpy nature of network reinforcements and Kirchhoff’s Voltage Law can affect the performance of RPSs. First, we show how simplified planning approaches that ignore transmission constraints, transmission lumpiness, or Kirchhoff’s voltage law yield distorted estimates of the type and location of infrastructure, as well as inaccurate compliance costs to meet the renewable goals. Second, we illustrate how lumpy transmission investments and Kirchhoff’s voltage law result in compliance costs that are nonconvex with respect to the RPS targets, in the sense that the marginal costs of meeting the RPS may decrease rather than increase as the target is raised. Thus, the value of renewable energy certificates (RECs) also depends on the network topology, as does the amount of noncompliance with the RPS, if noncompliance is penalized but not prohibited. Finally, we use a multi-stage planning model to determine the optimal generation and transmission infrastructure for RPS designs that set multiyear goals. We find that the optimal infrastructure to meet RPS policies that are enforced year-by-year differ from the optimal infrastructure if banking and borrowing is allowed in the REC market.     

Goal Setting,Information, and Goal Revision: A Field Experiment

People typically set goals in settings where they cannot be sure of how they will perform, but where their performance is revealed to them in parts over time. When part of the uncertainty is resolved, initial goals may have turned out to be unrealistic and hence they no longer work as a motivation device. Revising goals may increase performance by making goals realistic, but may also adversely affect performance through reduced goal commitment. We study the effects of motivating university students to set goals and inviting them to revise their goals later, using a field experiment involving nearly 2,100 students. We use courses containing two midterms and a final exam, where midterms reduce uncertainty about students’ potential performance. We find that motivating students to set goals does not affect performance on average. Students with midterm grades lower than their goal, decrease their performance. This effect is driven by students who were motivated to set goals without being made aware that they can revise their goals later. This finding may help explain why the evidence of the effectiveness of goals on study performance is mixed.     

Compliance with Endogenous Audit Probabilities

In this paper, we study the effect of endogenous audit probabilities on reporting behavior in a face‐to‐face compliance situation, such as at customs. In an experimental setting in which underreporting has a higher expected payoff than truthful reporting, we find an increase in compliance of about 80 percent if subjects have reason to believe that their behavior towards an officer influences their endogenous audit probability. Higher compliance is driven by considerations about how their own appearance and performance affect their audit probability, rather than by the social and psychological effects of face‐to‐face contact.     

Tax havens compliance with international standards: A temporal perspective

This paper contributes to the debate centering on the fight against aggressive tax avoidance practices through the release of international standards. We develop a model in which identical tax havens decide upon their compliance date while competing for onshore capital. The timing of these decisions depends on the effects of two opposing forces. One force is linked to the tax sensitivity of international capital and the other to the reaction of nearby potential capital. When the former force dominates, asynchronous compliance arises, which occurs even with identical tax havens and perfect information. However, when the latter force dominates, tax havens comply simultaneously. In any case, the loss of tax base within the onshore region is minimized when compliance is simultaneous and occurs at the earliest possible date. Surprisingly, compliance of just one tax haven is not necessarily better than no compliance at all.     

Income Tax Deductions for Work-related Expenses: The Rationale Examined

The Australian income tax permits taxpayers receiving wages to claim work-related expenses (WREs) as deductions against taxable income. The rationale for the provision has never been stated. This paper examines the rationale in terms of equity and efficiency considerations. The analy sis suggests that deductibility of WREs is likely, at best, to have a neutral equity impact; at worst it will have a random impact. WRE deductibi lity is also likely to lead to distortions in both production and consumption. Taken together with the high compliance costs associated with the provision, these arguments justify abolition of WRE deductibility     

中国:深化事业单位改革,改善公共服务提供

改善事业单位的绩效,对于提高公共服务的质量,适应中国所确定的建设小康社会的目标,落实“以人为本”的发展观,具有非常关键的意义。虽然过去以“推向市场”为目标的改革取得了很大成就,但同时也在公共服务领域引入了一些不合意的激励机制。为了改善公共服务,中国需要进行全面、协调的事业单位改革,其中包括重新界定政府的角色和从商业性活动中退出,改革公共财政以便更好地为公共服务付费,允许非国有部门提供更多的公共产品,加强公共部门内部的问责机制,建立绩效管理和监督体制。由于事业单位的复杂性和多样化特征,改革的设计与实施必须充分考虑不同部门和不同地区的具体环境以及对员工的影响。因此,有必要在中央层面建立一个跨部门的改革领导小组对事业单位改革进行指导和监督。     

The Causal Effects of the Minimum Wage Introduction in Germany – An Overview

In 2015, Germany introduced a statutory hourly minimum wage that was not only universally binding but also set at a relatively high level. We discuss the short‐run effects of this new minimum wage on a wide set of socioeconomic outcomes, such as employment and working hours, earnings and wage inequality, dependent and self‐employment, as well as reservation wages and satisfaction. We also discuss difficulties in the implementation of the minimum wage and the measurement of its effects related to non‐compliance and suitability of data sources. Two years after the minimum wage introduction, the following conclusions can be drawn: while hourly wages increased for low‐wage earners, some small negative employment effects are also identifiable. The effects on aspired goals, such as poverty and inequality reduction, have not materialised in the short run. Instead, a tendency to reduce working hours is found, which alleviates the desired positive impact on monthly income. Additionally, the level of non‐compliance was substantial in the short run, thus drawing attention to problems when implementing such a wide reaching policy.     

Social Norms,Morals and Self-interest as Determinants of Pro-environment Behaviours: The Case of Household Recycling

This paper considers the role which selfish, moral and social incentives and pressures play in explaining the extent to which stated choices over pro-environment behaviours vary across individuals. The empirical context is choices over household waste contracts and recycling actions in Poland. A theoretical model is used to show how cost-based motives and the desire for a positive self and social image combine to determine the utility from alternative choices of recycling behaviour. We then describe a discrete choice experiment designed to empirically investigate the effects such drivers have on stated choices. A hybrid logit model is used to link statements over attitudes to recycling to choices, dealing with a potential endogeneity problem caused by the joint effects of un-observables on attitudes and choices. We find that a substantial share of our respondents prefer to sort their waste at home rather than in a central sorting facility. This preference is associated with a moral/intrinsic motivation, involving a belief that sorting at home is more thorough than central sorting.     

Evaluating the USFS State and Private Forestry Redesign: A first look at policy implications

Recently a shift has occurred in the way in which the United States Forest Service (USFS) distributes funds to states through its State and Private Forestry (S&PF) program. Traditionally S&PF has distributed money to states and territories formulaically. Now, under the 2008 Redesign Initiative, 15% of these funds are allocated through a competitive process. In this paper we analyze this initiative through the lens of institutional economics.Using budget, interview and survey data, we evaluate the new allocation process on the criteria of allocative efficiency, transaction costs, and distributional effects. Additionally, we examine a trade-off the Redesign Initiative faces between short-term innovations and funding programs that meet long-term USFS goals. We conclude that, while there is some positive evidence that the program is achieving some of its stated goals, it is doing so at the expense of higher transaction costs and less certain long-term projects. Moreover, we find that the lack of procedures to evaluate competitively funded projects is an important flaw that may prevent the new initiative from helping to create a high performing and adaptive governance system.