Inflation Targeting Framework and Interest Rates Transmission in Ghana: An Empirical Investigation

This paper investigates the long-and short-run rate of transmission of the prime rate to interest rates since the implementation of inflation targeting policy in Ghana. Monthly data covering the period January 2002 to March 2016 is used. The Johansen and Hansen parameter instability cointegration, the FMOLS and DOLS estimation procedures were used. The long-run results show incomplete pass-through of the prime rate to commercial banks’ lending and deposit rates but over pass-through to the 91-day Treasury bill rate. The short-run adjustment shows relatively slow transmission of the prime rate to the respective interest rates. Given the findings, relevant policy suggestions are provided.     

日本利率政策变革与商业银行经营风险分析

二战结束后,日本利率政策基本经历了三个阶段的历史变革,每个阶段都对国内商业银行的发展产生了重要影响。日本商业银行在前两个阶段中经历了风险酝酿和危机爆发后,于第二个阶段末开始加强风险管理,使银行系统的稳定性得以提升。我国当前的利率市场化改革给商业银行发展带来了相对复杂的外部环境,日本商业银行风险管理的经验和教训对于我国商业银行加强风险管理建设具有借鉴意义。     

利率市场化与商业银行应对措施

利率市场化是我国金融深化的重要内容,亦是决定加入WTO后我国金融体系竞争力大小的一个重要因素。从理论和实践两方面分析了利率市场化对我国商业银行经营环境及经营管理的影响,并以此为基础提出了利率市场化过程中商业银行的具体对策。     

我国利率政策的局限性分析

在中央银行进行宏观调控中,利率政策是常用的工具之一。事实证明,利率政策的效应与中央银行宏观调控的预期目标并不能完全保持一致。在不同的条件下,为什么利率政策的制定与实施会呈现出正效应与负效应呢？利率政策本身客观存在的局限性是关键因素。只有重视与加强利率政策的局限性研究,才能提高实施利率政策的有效性,才能为中央银行宏观调控预期目标的实现服务。     

An Evaluation of Marketing Practices in Banks in Ghana

ABSTRACT

This study ascertains the extent to which the marketing concept has been adopted and implemented by banks in Ghana. It addresses a gap in an area that is currently under researched and provides insight into the banking services industry in a developing country. All sixteen licensed banks in Ghana were included in this study. The data was collected through in-depth interviews and self completed questionnaires. The results suggest that marketing departments in the banks are organised mainly within headquarters and headed by marketing and advertising/public relations managers. The marketing activities in the banks are associated with the stage where marketing orientation is perceived as advertising and public relations. There is a partial lack of marketing culture in the banks. The total and formal acceptance and understanding of the marketing concept is at an embryonic stage in the evolutionary process.     

利率市场化:对国有商业银行、国有企业进行实质性变革

本文认为,我国现阶段国有商业银行、国有企业存在的问题严重制约着利率市场化的实施。随着利率市场化的推行,国有商业银行、国有企业在产权主体缺位、约束机制不健全的条件下追求效用最大化,可能会产生更加严重的道德风险和逆向选择,给潜在借款人创造更多的“寻租”机会,导致内部控制现象进一步显现。文章提出,为切实推进利率市场化,必须改变国有银行垄断现状,明确国有商业银行金融产权制度,建立和完善国有商业银行法人治理结构,对国有商业银行进行实质性变革。同时要通过全面推进国有经济的战略性改组,改革国有企业产权制度,建立科学的企业法人治理结构,对国有企业进行实质性变革。     

在当前形势下浅析利率与物价的关系

金融危机以来,我国经济增长面临前所未有的压力。为此,国家分别采取了降低利率等货币手段以保证流动性。同时,我国的物价水平经过去年的快速增长后,开始逐步回落。本文分别从理论和实证方面对利率和物价的关系进行阐释,对实证结论做出合理解释,回顾了中国的利率市场化进程,并对利率市场化的改革提出了自己的建议。     

The Determinants of Net Interest Margin in the Ghanaian Banking Industry

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of net interest margin and the role of the financial crisis in explaining net interest margin (NIM) in the banking industry in Ghana. Further, we assess the sensitivity of our results to the measure of credit risk. We observe a sharp drop in NIM and an increase in bad debt growth during the 2007–2009 financial crisis in Ghana’s banking sector. Depending on the definition of credit risk, we observe marginal differences in the magnitude and significance of the determinants of NIM. Generally, NIM is explained by bank-specific, industry and macroeconomic factors. We find risk aversion, operating cost, inflation rate and previous year’s GDP growth to be robust drivers of NIM.     

基于单因子利率期限结构模型的中国银行间短期利率行为的实证研究

文章采用高斯估计方法,使用中国银行间债券市场国债短期利率数据,对单因子连续时间利率期限结构模型进行了参数估计,实证结果显示我国银行间国债市场的短期利率具有均值恢复特性。和其它模型相比,BS模型在数据拟合方面表现较好。     

利率杠杆的选择及人民币利率下调的论证

随着财政政策效力的减弱,在继续实施积极的财政政策的同时,应让货币政策发挥积极的作用,以保持适当较快的贷币供应增长,满足宏观经济增长的需要。连续七次降息,政策效果明显。当前有效需求不足、经济增长趋缓、储蓄存款增长、债券利率下降、国际利率降息浪潮及较低的通货膨胀率等现实的存在,都说明人民币利率再次下调有其客观性。     

货币政策的利率期限结构效应的理论解释及其经验证据

文章首先运用一个利率期限结构的预期理论模型,证明了“在预期假说框架内货币政策只能引起收益率曲线平行移动而不会改变它的坡度”这一论断是错误的;接下来运用一个局部均衡模型在利率期限结构的预期理论框架下,证明了货币政策行动模式（参数）会影响货币政策对市场利率的影响效果、利率期限结构（收益率曲线）的斜率及其动态特征;之后用一个基于中关两国比较的经验证据说明上述理论解释的可靠性。     

货币政策周期与国债利率期限结构

以银行间隔夜拆借平均利率作为货币政策代理变量,利用2003年10月—2011年3月上交所国债数据估计出Nelson-Siegel模型的水平因子和倾斜度时间序列,运用马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型研究不同货币政策周期下货币政策变化对国债利率期限结构的影响,实证结果表明:当货币政策从宽松周期转向紧缩周期时,水平因子变大,倾斜度变小。面对货币政策从紧的冲击,在货币政策的宽松期和紧缩期,水平因子的响应分别为正向和负向,而倾斜度的响应均为负向。     

利率市场化对我国城市商业银行的影响

2014年开始银行业将面临着利率市场化的外界环境,在这样的背景下,我国银行业将会普遍感受到这一外界环境带来的巨大压力,尤其是资产总额相对较小的城市商业银行。本文使用SWOT模型对利弊进行分析可以看出在市场利率化的过程中城市商业银行面临的不仅仅是各种风险的加大,甚至还有倒闭的可能。然而不能忽视的是城市商业银行仍然在很多方面是具有优势的,比如更加熟悉银行本地的经济发展状况、与当地的企业合作更加密切,如果能更好的运用这些优势的同时,提升自身的创新能力、服务水平等综合素质,是完全可以利用这次机遇使银行自身的发展更加成熟。     

我国商业银行规模经济问题的实证研究——基于随机前沿模型的分析

本文运用随机前沿模型对我国商业银行1996-2004年的规模经济问题进行了实证研究。与国内已有研究不同的是,在实证过程中,我们对超越对数成本函数和Cobb-Douglas成本函数设定进行了假设检验;同时,在商业银行产出中,考虑了投资的作用。实证结果表明,国有商业银行均表现出规模不经济,而股份制商业银行基本上都表现出规模经济性。     

Interdependence of Major Exchange Rates in Ghana: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis

ABSTRACT

We have employed the three-dimensional continuous Morlet wavelet transform methodology to explore the co-movement amongst the returns of four major currencies in Ghana (dollar, euro, pound, and yen) for the period May 1999 to February 2018. The analysis reveals that the dynamics of the interdependence of the currencies is time-varying and heterogeneous. Our empirical findings demonstrate that the currencies are closely linked or interconnected. The lead–lag relationships between the returns of the exchange rates established that volatilities in the euro and yen significantly affect movements in the other currencies in daily and weekly exchange rate returns. The presence of lead–lag effects and stronger co-movements at short-run fluctuations may induce arbitrage and diversification opportunities to investors, albeit with limited space. The differences in the co-movements of returns and the evidence of contagion among the foreign exchange markets provide reliable incentive to the monetary authorities for unflinching strides to halt the speeding exchange rates.     

中国利率政策的国际比较与选择

利率是重要的货币政策手段。自1997年至今,我国政府已七次下调银行存款利率,与中国银行利率体系相比,利率水平已很低,但与国际利率比较则显得很高且有很多不合理的因素。因此,如何调节利率,与国际市场接轨,适应对外开放的需要就尤为重要。     

关于财政货币政策调整的争论与分析

本文认为,在全球经济复苏特别是澳大利亚、挪威政府开启加息程序的背景下,考虑财政货币政策的调整问题是很有必要的.国内生产总值增长速度、居民消费价格指数同比增速、投资与进出口增速、国内政策之间的配合程度、国际之间政策的协调程度等可以作为对财政货币政策调整与退出作出判断的重要指标.文章提出,中国积极的财政政策应该在2011年下半年或2012年开始逐渐淡出直至退出,货币政策应该继续维持"适度宽松"的基调,真正向"适度宽松"回归,并注意把握好政策的重点、力度和节奏,从而更好地发挥货币政策支持经济增长、保持物价稳定的作用,同时还应密切关注美国货币政策的动向.     

Black's Model of Interest Rates as Options, Eigenfunction Expansions and Japanese Interest Rates

Black's (1995) model of interest rates as options assumes that there is a shadow instantaneous interest rate that can become negative, while the nominal instantaneous interest rate is a positive part of the shadow rate due to the option to convert to currency. As a result of this currency option, all term rates are strictly positive. A similar model was independently discussed by Rogers (1995) . When the shadow rate is modeled as a diffusion, we interpret the zero-coupon bond as a Laplace transform of the area functional of the underlying shadow rate diffusion (evaluated at the unit value of the transform parameter). Using the method of eigenfunction expansions, we derive analytical solutions for zero-coupon bonds and bond options under the Vasicek and shifted CIR processes for the shadow rate. This class of models can be used to model low interest rate regimes. As an illustration, we calibrate the model with the Vasicek shadow rate to the Japanese Government Bond data and show that the model provides an excellent fit to the Japanese term structure. The current implied value of the instantaneous shadow rate in Japan is negative.     

中国积极财政政策与货币政策效力的比较——对蒙代尔—弗莱明模型的一个修正运用

运用一个修正的MF模型 ,对我国积极财政政策和货币政策的效力进行比较 ,得出在我国现行汇率制度安排下 ,积极财政政策的效果要优于货币政策。当前我国的经济政策应以财政政策为主 ,坚持积极的财政政策 ,淡化扩张性的货币政策。     

Keynote Speech: Federal Reserve Policy in the Post-Crisis Period

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) engaged in a series of extraordinary monetary policy actions in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008 to support economic activity in the United States. Interest rates were lowered to their effective lower bound and the Fed’s balance sheet was greatly expanded through a series of large-scale asset purchase programs. As the U.S. economy has recovered, “normalization” of monetary policy (which will be data-dependent) has drawn closer. This article reviews some factors that may impact the post-normalization course of monetary policy.