Logit模型在市场营销定量研究中的应用——消费者对家电品牌选择的实证分析

市场营销的定量研究以及如何开启消费者的行为黑箱,一直以来都是国外市场营销研究者们长期并将继续深入探讨的核心主题。在此过程当中,Logit模型是他们比较青睐和广泛采用的一类研究工具。通过对Logit模型的原理的介绍,以及将这一模型用于国内消费者对某一家电品牌选择的实证研究,从而表明Logit模型能够用于分析市场营销研究中的诸多问题,并且能够揭示出更多有用的量化信息,而这对于市场营销的学术研究和市场营销管理的实践都无疑是大有裨益的。     

我国西部地区农户借贷行为影响因素的实证研究——基于804户农户调查数据分析

诠释农户的性质、行为及其生存环境是讨论我国农村金融问题的逻辑起点,本文运用二元选择模型,利用农户调查问卷得到的数据对西部地区农户借贷行为的影响因素进行了实证研究。得出以下结论:个人与家庭特征、经济特征、环境特征均是影响西部地区农户借贷行为的因素,尤其是农户的家庭年收入、农户的家庭规模、家庭主要支出、户主年龄、家庭劳动负担率、2008年是否发生重大事件等因素对农户借贷行为的影响具有非常显著的作用。     

农户民间借贷需求影响因素的经验分析——基于河南省的调查

采用河南省农村的社会调查资料,运用Logit模型,对农户民间借贷需求影响因素进行了实证检验。结果表明:社会资本拥有量、家庭状况和信贷环境均是影响农户民间借贷需求的主要因素。尤其,具有一定社会地位的家庭、收入水平较高的家庭、负担水平较重的家庭以及所在村存在"高利贷"等因素对农户获得民间借贷的可能性具有非常显著的作用。     

水利水电工程的施工质量管理措施分析

水利水电工程往往都是影响民生,关系社会发展的重大工程.作为造福于民的基础设施,施工质量的管理尤为重要.合理有效的施工质量管理,不仅可以加快施工速度,提高工程质量,而且是施工顺利进行的有效保障.本文针对水利水电工程施工存在的问题,进行相应分析,提出质量管理措施.     

京津沪外来人口迁移行为影响因素对比分析

以2008年京、津、沪、穗四大城市外来人口问卷调查资料为基础,对比分析了北京、天津和上海迁移人口的个体特征以及相对于其他省市,三座城市与迁出地在经济和社会发展差异上对外来人口迁移行为的影响,讨论了人口迁移对地区间不均衡程度的影响。无论是在个体特征方面,还是受经济和社会发展影响方面,天津和上海的迁移人口都具有较多的趋同性;北京市由于其特殊的城市功能以及拥有众多优势资源,对高素质人才具有较强的吸引力,经济和社会的发展等因素对迁移者迁移概率的影响有所不同。     

Purchase frequency,sample selection,and price sensitivity: The heavy-user bias

We study the relationship between purchase frequency and volume and choice behavior as summarized by brand preferences and price sensitivity. Our most striking finding is that consumers with high purchase frequency or high purchase volume are much more price sensitive and have more sharply defined preferences for national brands than consumers with low frequency or low volume of purchase. In much of the choice literature, analysis is confined to households that have on average a larger number of purchases than is representative of the ERIM panel. Our findings suggest that some caution should be exercised in interpreting studies that employ purchase-frequency or purchase-number sample inclusion rules. Our findings also support an information theoretic point of view in which households become more price sensitive via costly acquisition of information about the distribution of prices.We acknowledge helpful comments from Greg Allenby and Bob Blattberg. Support from the Micro-Marketing Project at the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago is gratefully acknowledged. Byung-Do Kim is the corresponding author.     

The Michelin Guide and Restaurant Pricing Strategies

Abstract

This study reports the analysis of the price changes that occurred among randomly chosen French restaurants during the period of 1970–94. It discussed the relationship between these changes and the Michelin Guide restaurant ratings. The findings suggest that when the Michelin ratings increase or decrease for a particular restaurant, its prices reflect this change. Even two years before receiving a Michelin promotion, restaurants are observed to increase their prices relative to other restaurants. Most likely this is due to their incurring the extra expense of raising the quality of their fare and improving their amenities in the hope of qualifying for an increased Michelin rating.     

上市并购目标公司的特征研究

运用ANOVA和Logit回归方法探求我国并购目标公司区别于非目标公司的财务特征,并对几种具有代表性的并购动机做出检验。结果表明,替换无效率的管理层理论和交易成本理论对并购上市公司的动机具有较强解释力,与此同时还有部分并购出于投机动机。     

基于OECD 国家面板数据的金融风险影响因素研究

本文选取1980~2013年OECD 28个国家经济与金融的样本数据,采用面板logit模型对这些国家金融风险的影响因素进行逐步回归分析。结果显示,GDP增长率、经常账户余额占GDP比率以及总储备占GDP的比率对OECD国家金融风险的影响是负向的,即随着它们的增长,金融风险产生的概率减小;汇率对OECD国家金融风险的影响是正向的,即随着汇率的增长,金融风险产生的概率增大。     

浙江农村安全饮用水供给体制和运行机制创新——基于市场化供给的视角

保障农村安全饮用水是新时期我国政府全面建设小康社会、构建社会主义和谐社会的重要举措,浙江省自2003年实施“千万农民饮用水工程”以来,建设成效显著,但也暴露出诸多问题,急需对此进行总结和完善。本文从制度、体制和机制层面剖析了浙江省农村安全水供给存在的问题,并在此基础上寻求诸如如何建立农村安全饮用水多元化供给体系,如何健全管理体制以推动饮用水工程良性运行,如何完善监测体系以保证农村饮用水安全等完善举措。     

Study on mobile phone use while driving in a sample of Iranian drivers

The use of cell phone is a significant source of driver distraction. Phone use while driving can impair a number of factors critical for safe driving which can cause serious traffic safety problems. The objective of this paper was to investigate the frequency of using cell phones while driving in Iran's roads through an observational survey with a random sample of drivers, to recognize contributing factors to cell phone usage and to understand the magnitude of the problem. A total of 1794 observations were collected from 12 sites at controlled intersections, entrance and exit points of highways. The cell phone use rate among drivers (talking or texting) was estimated at 10% which is significantly higher than that in other countries such as Australia, USA and Canada. Rate of cell phone use among younger drivers (14.15%) was higher in comparison with other groups. In order to identify factors affecting cell phone use while driving, a binary logit model is estimated. Variables which significantly contribute to the rate of using cell phone were found to be the age of driver, number of passengers, presence of kids under the age of 8, time of observation, vehicle price and type of car.     

Why Do Some Consumers Make Unhealthy Food Choices?

This research examines the impact of gender, age, and education on food choices and addresses issues of causality in these observed relationships; a logit model was used to test the mediation effects and hypotheses. The results from a self-administered online survey indicate that gender and education are two key predictors of consumers’ food choices for their children. These findings are further explained by attitudes toward obesity. Specifically, female consumers and parents with lower levels of formal education tend to select food products that are nutritionally inferior because they are not necessarily concerned about their child’s weight and do not usually restrict their child’s food and diet. This research advances a causal mechanism that explains unexpected consumers’ food choices; it essentially proposes and tests two mediators—restrictions of a child’s weight and concerns about a child’s weight—of the relationship between key demographic variables and consumers’ food choices.     

A Balancing Act: Disproportionate Sampling of Organic Foods

When exploring decision making in food marketing, particular events are often unequally represented in the data. Concerns over bias can confuse public policy or strategy interpretation if samples are unbalanced. This occurs when researching organic food marketing. A small share of the market (～4%) and of product innovations (～7%) are organic. Caution is advised when predicting trends based on this disproportionately small sample of organic products. This study demonstrates that there is little statistical difference, and even a net gain in predictive power, when using a balanced sample to test factors that influence a firm’s decision to market organic food. Marginal probabilities for the smaller, balanced sample are biased by a constant factor. Thus ex post adjustment is easy and recommended to enhance predictive power.     

心理距离对跨国公司进入模式的影响

基于65 670家外商直接投资企业数据,本文使用群组Logit模型,分析了心理距离对跨国公司进入中国市场模式选择的影响。研究发现语言差异和工业发展水平差异与跨国公司采取独资模式进入的机会比率呈显著负相关关系,宗教差异与跨国公司采取独资模式进入的机会比率呈显著正相关关系,而教育水平差异和民主差异对跨国公司进入模式选择的影响并不显著。     

关于提高会计信息质量的思考

会计信息既是直接使用者进行经济决策的重要依据 ,也是国家统计信息和宏观经济信息的重要来源 ,因此对于会计信息质量问题的研究与要求十分重要。现阶段我国会计信息在质量上存在会计资料谎报、毁弃、隐匿、虚报等会计信息失真 ,信息质量不高的问题 ,应尽快采取措施加以解决 ,提高会计信息质量     

知情选择对中国避孕行为的影响分析

利用近三十年来的避孕抽样调查数据,考察知情选择的逐步展开对中国已婚育龄人群避孕行为的影响。育龄人群的避孕行为已随知情选择发生较大变化,短效自控型避孕措施选择的可能性在逐步升高,长效医控型避孕措施选择的可能性在逐步降低,避孕模式呈自由选择多元化发展态势。知情选择强化了个体因素在避孕措施选择中的决定作用,为育龄个体提供了更为自由的避孕选择空间。避孕行为受子女性别影响的社会事实长期存在,知情选择在一定程度上增加了性别偏好对避孕措施选择的影响。