Index options open interest and stock market returns

This study finds that the growth of index options open interest has a significant relation with future stock market returns. We propose a theoretical model that considers hedgers and informed traders in the options market and suggests that hedgers fully utilize options according to their expectations of future stock returns. The empirical results show that the growth of out-of-the-money call options open interest is significantly related with future stock market returns. These findings provide supporting evidence for our theoretical model.     

Islamic legal methodologies and Shariah screening standards: Application in the Indonesian stock market

This article provides a framework for applying the principles of Islamic legal methodology to determine the optimal Shariah screening standards for Islamic equity markets. It is argued that using maslahah mursalah (unrestricted benefit) is an appropriate method for identifying appropriate financial standards and its principles stipulate that the benchmark that yields the best economic returns to investors should be chosen. The methodological framework is applied to the Indonesia equity market where the economic implications of the Islamic stock screening standards of the Indonesian Islamic Shariah Stock Index and four global indices are assessed. Portfolios are constructed by applying Islamic stock screening standards for each of the indices by using data on 377 stocks listed in the Indonesian stock market for 5 years. The performances measured by the Sharpe ratio, Treynor index, and Jensen alpha reveal that the Dow Jones Islamic Index screening criteria performs the best. Based on the method of maslahah mursalah, the article recommends using the screening standard of this index in the Indonesian stock market to maximize benefits to investors. While the approach used in this article is applied to Islamic equity markets, the methodological framework can also be used for other similar cases in Islamic finance.     

Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis (MDH) with Structural Breaks: Evidence from Foreign Exchanges of Nigeria and South Africa

ABSTRACT

This study tests for MDH in two prominent foreign exchange (FX) markets in Africa, Nigeria and South Africa using three benchmark currencies (euro, dollar and pound sterling). Data utilized cover time series closing rate data set of five-day weekly frequency spanning December 14, 2001 to September 26, 2014. The study considers both the linear and nonlinear measures for MDH with better size and power properties. We also capture structural break endogenously from the data stream using Perron (2006) unit root test with structural break. Three striking findings are discernible from our analyses. First, on average, the South African FX market appears to be more efficient than the Nigerian FX market. Thus, the latter may be more susceptible to speculations than the former. Second, ignoring significant structural breaks may render statistical inferences invalid. Third, the choice of methodology does matter when testing for MDH of foreign exchanges in Africa.     

Abnormal trading volume and autoregressive behavior in weekly stock returns in the Saudi stock market

This paper examines the relationship between the abnormal change in trading volume of both individual stocks and portfolios and short-term price autoregressive behavior in the Saudi stock market (SSM). Our objective is to investigate the informational role that trading volume plays in predicting the direction of short-term returns. We evaluate whether the abnormal change in lagged, contemporaneous, and lead turnovers affects serial correlation in returns. Specifically, we examine if and when the change in volume produces momentum (positive correlation) or reversal (negative autocorrelation) in consecutive weekly stock returns.We find a reversal in weekly stock returns when conditioned on the change in lagged volume in the SSM. Our results are consistent for the whole sample, the two sub-sample periods, and the large- and small-firm portfolios. The results are consistent with Campbell, Grossman, and Wang [Campbell, J. Y., S. J. Grossman, and J. Wang, 1993, Trading volume and serial correlation in stock returns, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 905–939], who present a model in which risk-averse market makers accommodate the selling pressure of liquidity or non-informational traders. We also find that reversal is more pronounced with the loser portfolio as specified by filter-based methodology. The overall result of this paper is also consistent with the empirical findings of Conrad, Hameed, and Niden [Conrad, J., A. Hameed, and C. Niden, 1994, Volume and autocovariances in short-horizon individual security returns, Journal of Finance 49, 1305–1329.] and Gebka [Gebka, B., 2005, Dynamic volume-return relationship: evidence from an emerging market, Applied Financial Economics, 15, 1019–1029] in which they report price reversal for stock with high trading volume.     

Foreign firm characteristics,labour market restrictions and FDI spillovers: Evidence from Moldova

This paper investigates how productivity spillovers from foreign to domestic firms are affected by foreign firm characteristics and labour market conditions in Moldova. We use firm-level administrative panel data and annual survey region-sector indicators of labour market conditions in 2005–2014. Baseline regressions show that domestic firms benefit from backward FDI spillovers, while we find no evidence of horizontal or forward spillovers. Spillover effects are heterogeneous and depend on the ownership structure and age of foreign firms. Domestic firms in upstream sectors benefit from both wholly foreign-owned companies (WFOC) and joint ventures (JV). However, JVs need less time in the market for positive spillovers to materialise, while WFOCs only lead to larger spillover effects when they are older. In regions and sectors where firms experience fewer labour market restrictions, backward FDI spillovers are larger. Interacting foreign firm characteristics with labour market restrictions, we find that spillovers through the labour market channel materialise only for older FDI, regardless of ownership type. The results are in line with our expectation that WFOCs need more time than JVs to develop linkages with local suppliers and lead to spillovers through this channel. Moreover, in developing countries labour market restrictions reduce labour mobility and consequently, the size of FDI spillovers across industries.     

Income and social communication: The demographics of stock market participation

This paper analyses the determinants of stock market participation decisions using officially compiled aggregate stock account opening data in China. Different from the literature that often focuses on one particular dimension, our paper systematically evaluates the relative importance of disposable income, demographic variables, macroeconomic factors, stock market conditions and social communication on both the level and the change of the participation rate. We find that the level of the participation rate is predominately determined by the income factor, followed by various measures of social communication. Social communication plays the most important role in the change of the participation rate, acting as a multiplier to stimulate stock market participation. The effects are more pronounced in high‐income, high‐education, high‐population‐density groups and during the bull market period.     

Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth in Nigeria

Abstract

The study empirically assessed the relationship between stock market development and long-run economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1980 to 2000. The study used secondary data while four models of multiple regressions were specified. The regression results, which were obtained using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS), show that measures of stock market development statistically have no significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1980 to 2000. The major implication of the findings is that if the Nigerian Stock Market is to significantly contribute to rapid economic growth, policies must be fashioned out to eliminate those factors that blur the effectiveness of the vehicle or transmission mechanism through which stock market activities influence economic growth.

Based on the findings, it was recommended that there should be an improvement in the attractiveness of the market as a major source of raising capital. This will entail improvement in the physical infrastructure, more efficient share transfer and delivering system and provision of adequate and timely information on the market. Also, there should be improvement in the institutional regulation, environment and legal framework such that a balance is maintained between the soundness and safety of the market. And finally, there is the need to internationalize the stock market to improve the flow of savings. This willgive the market the advantages of risk diversification, improve information flow and encourage corporate control through investment in equity.     

Volatility Spillovers and the Risk-Return Relation Between Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets in Brazil

We examine the evidence of mean and volatility spillovers between stock and foreign exchange markets in Brazil with multivariate GARCH models and nonlinear Granger causality tests. We also use a multivariate GARCH-in-mean model to assess the relationship between risk and return in these markets. The results indicate that the stock market leads the foreign exchange market in price formation and that nonlinear Granger causalities from the exchange market to the stock market do occur. Part of these nonlinear causalities are explained by volatility spillovers. We show that exchange rate volatility affects not only stock market volatility but also stock returns.     

Price monotonicity violations during stock market crashes: Evidence from the SSE 50 ETF options market

This study empirically tests whether price violations, as defined by Bakshi, Cao, and Chen (2000), show different patterns in response to market shocks. Specifically, we analyze the Chinese options market during a period covering a stock market crash and a series of trading restrictions in the Chinese derivatives markets. Our results confirm the significant changes of the defined violations in the face of unexpected shocks, and more importantly, we interpret such variations from the perspective of information spillovers. Our findings suggest that the stock market crash prompts informed traders in the Chinese options market to frequently adjust their positions on put options, exacerbating the misunderstandings and overreactions to new information. Further, the regulatory shock in the derivatives markets diminishes the efficiency of information incorporation for both options and spot markets but does not affect the dominance of the Chinese options market in price discovery.     

International spillovers of knowledge and sectoral productivity growth: some evidence for Canada and the United States

This paper develops and tests a two-country model of a monopolistically competitive industry in which the production function shifts endogenously via national and international spillovers of knowledge. The basic version of this model implies that, in the long run, the growth rate of sectoral productivity is the same in each country. In support of this version, for a number of matched Canadian and US manufacturing industries, the paper finds that these two countries' rates of sectoral productivity growth tend to converge despite marked international differences in R and D.     

通货膨胀对我国股市条件波动影响的统计检验

将通货膨胀因素引入到GARCH模型的方差方程中,以检验通货膨胀、通货膨胀变动以及通货膨胀不确定性对股市条件波动的影响。实证分析的结果表明,在统计意义上,通货膨胀及其变动对股市收益的条件波动几乎不会产生影响,而通货膨胀不确定性对股市波动的影响是显著的。这一结果意味着管理好通胀预期,降低通货膨胀不确定性,引导公众形成合理的通胀预期对促进股市平稳发展具有重要意义。     

Questioning ‘law and finance’: US stock market development, 1930–70

An important tenet of a burgeoning ‘law and finance’ literature is that stock market development is contingent upon corporate law offering ample protection to shareholders. This paper addresses this claim, using as its departure point developments occurring in the United States between 1930 and 1970. It shows that, contrary to what the law and finance literature would predict, during this period and throughout the twentieth century generally the US lacked corporate law that provided extensive protection to shareholders. It also points out that while federal securities legislation introduced in the mid-1930s bolstered investor protection, this reform effort did not energise the stock market in the manner implied by law and finance analysis.     

Asymmetric extreme risk spillovers between the Chinese stock market and index futures market: An MV-CAViaR based intraday CoVaR approach

This paper proposes a predictive CoVaR measure to analyze asynchronous risk spillovers between the Chinese stock and futures market. We jointly model the intraday CoVaR dynamics using an extended MV-CAViaR model. The results show the presence of asymmetric spillovers under different market states, different trading rules, and different confidence levels. Specifically, there exist significant downside spillovers and insignificant upside spillovers. Moreover, the futures (stock) market becomes dominant in risk transmission during bearish (bullish) market periods. Furthermore, high margin requirements would weaken the spillover effects of the futures market, but it would also strengthen the spillover effects of the stock market.     

中国股票与外汇市场相关性分析

根据中国政府在国际金融危机爆发后针对外汇市场所采取的不同政策,本文将汇改后时期分成三个阶段,利用协整检验和因果检验的计量方法,研究国际金融危机爆发后中国股票市场和外汇市场的连带关系。实证结果表明汇率制度改革后中国股市与汇市之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,但股票市场和外汇市场间的引导关系在不同的子样本区间内存在差异。     

Foreign market entry mode choice of small and medium-sized enterprises: A systematic review and future research agenda

Despite significant differences between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large multinational enterprises (MNEs), the majority of extant foreign market entry mode choice literature has focused on MNEs. The current state of knowledge regarding SME foreign market entry mode choice is equivocal. The present paper reviews the current state of SME foreign market entry mode choice literature and maps future research directions. To this end, we systematically analyze 33 relevant journal articles for their theoretical frameworks and contextual dimensions. Based on this review, we identify gaps in the literature and develop an agenda to guide future scholarship in this important domain of research in taking SME-specific characteristics into consideration.     

Good governance,innovation, economic growth and the stock market turnover rate

This study is primarily aimed at testing the theory of good governance in the group of eight developing Islamic countries. Using a panel data regression model, we examined the data to determine the relationship between political economy and economic development of eight countries, for the period 2005 to 2014. The results show a significant positive correlation between the rule of law, corruption control with economic growth and stock market turnover rate proxy. The examination through an artificial neural network resulted in a higher determination coefficient and less average standard error. This, in turn, reveals that the fitting power and efficiency of this method is higher than the panel data regression model. Furthermore, the findings of this study suggest that the application of good governance theory calls for more inquiry.     

Evidence on the dynamic relationship between international trade and the stock market

This study uses vector autoregressive analysis to examine the dynamic interactions of monthly real stock returns, return volatility, exchange rates, export growth and import growth for Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan for the period 1975–91. We find that exports and imports have significant interactions. The results also indicate that stock returns in Hong Kong and Singapore Granger-cause trade flows. Return volatility is found to react strongly to trade news in all four countries, a result supporting the efficient-market hypothesis.     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

Dependence between the global gold market and emerging stock markets (E7+1): Evidence from Granger causality using quantile and quantile‐on‐quantile regression methods

This study examined the dependence between gold and stocks during 2002–18 in seven emerging countries. The study combined the bivariate cross‐quantilogram introduced recently with quantile‐on‐quantile regression (QQR) approaches to conduct comprehensive and complementary analyses. The QQR results for the full sample revealed a weak positive dependence in all the quantiles of gold and stock returns across all the countries selected during mild market conditions. The results for pre and post‐crisis periods largely were consistent with those obtained for the full sample, except for Turkey (pre‐crisis), and China and Indonesia (post‐crisis). The results of the causality test‐in‐mean (return) and that of the causality test‐in‐variance revealed no causal relation between stock and gold in the pre‐crisis period, while causality ran only from gold to some stocks in the post‐crisis period. Further, while there was volatility causality running only from gold to stocks during the pre‐crisis period, the volatility causality between the two markets was very high during the post‐crisis period. Therefore, we suggest that gold may have been a hedge for stocks during the pre‐crisis compared to the post‐crisis period. Further, international risk factors should be considered in optimal investment decisions between domestic and global markets' assets (stocks and gold).