Understanding Trade Balances and Reciprocity in Global Telecom Between Asia and the United States (1984–2000)

ABSTRACT

From 1982 to 1997, the balance of trade deficit for U.S. telecommunications services increased tenfold. In the years since that time, the increase became less dramatic and eventually began to decline due to global deregulation and privatization efforts, as well as to multilateral agreements forged by most major countries. The countries of Asia contributed greatly to this increase and have also been examples of the reversal of the balance of trade deficit in recent years. Our analysis identifies partner reciprocity as a core issue of the international long-distance industry. We integrate various literature streams to better understand the issue of international reciprocity in service industries. Furthermore, we identify the trends in global telecom that explain the historical imbalanced reciprocity period between 1984 and 1997 and the more recent period where a more balanced reciprocity has existed between the United States and the Asian region.     

Effects of multilateral and preferential trade policy reform in Africa: The case of Uganda

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects on production, trade and economic welfare of current trade policy regimes throughout the world on Uganda relative to other economies. This will be a benchmark against which to examine various multilateral and preferential trade policy scenarios that might emerge over the next decade as part of the WTO's Doha Round and from the expected move later this decade towards Economic Partnership Agreements with the European Union. The results suggest modest gains or worse for Uganda, in part because it already has low tariffs and ready preferential access to rich-country markets. Several important caveats to this type of analysis are stressed though, before drawing out some trade and policy implications for Uganda.     

试析欧共体的优惠贸易协定政策与WTO规则的协调与兼容

欧共体与世界上100多个国家签有种类繁多、名称各异的优惠贸易协定,这使其拥有了一张当今世界上最大的优惠贸易"网络"。近年来,欧共体将对外贸易协定从单向优惠调整为双向互惠一方面是为了与WTO规则相协调,特别是WTO争端解决机构对香蕉案的裁决起到了"催化剂"的作用;但另一方面,这种政策调整的背后还有着更为重要的政治与经济动因,凸现出欧共体对于WTO规则的理解与运用透着很强的实用主义色彩,维护与拓展经贸利益是其进行政策调整的根本目的。     

Preferential Rules of Origin and the Multilateral Trading System: Pro-Development Policy Options

With the proliferation of regional trade agreements since the late 1980s and early 1990s, preferential rules of origin have also proliferated. The discussion on these rules has gradually shifted from a purely technical discussion (“how to establish the origin of goods not wholly obtained in one country”, and hence, “how to apply trade preferences in these cases”) to a wider discussion also touching upon the transaction costs caused by having a “spaghetti bowl” of rules, and the actual or presumed neo-protectionist use that is being made of them. In the context of the discussion on possible policy options for developing countries simultaneously involved in (or negotiating) regional and multilateral trade agreements, this article will first give a brief overview of the findings of the recent empirical literature. Some indications are then presented as to what such policy options could look like. This paper was first presented at the Ad-hoc Expert Group Meeting on The Development Interface between the Multilateral Trading System and Regional Trade Agreements, Session III Regulatory Provisions in RTAs, Palais des Nations, Geneva, 15-16 March 2007. It is partly based on P. De Lombaerde, L. J. Garay : Preferential Rules of Origin: EU and NAFTA Regulatory Models and the WTO, in: The Journal of World Investment & Trade, Vol. 6, No. 6, 2005, pp. 953-994; and L. J. Garay, P. De Lombaerde: Preferential Rules of Origin: Models and Levels of Rulemaking, in: S. Woolcock (ed.): Trade and Investment Rulemaking: The Role of Regional and Bilateral Agreements, Tokyo 2006, UNU Press, pp. 78-106.     

Supplementary Trade Benefits of Multi-Memberships in African Regional Trade Agreements

ABSTRACT

Few papers have investigated the trade effects of multi-memberships of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), but none has done this in an Africa-wide manner. This paper investigates the supplementary trade effects of multi-memberships of RTAs after controlling for single-membership for all African RTAs. We use (1) overall number of RTAs by country pair; (2) dummies of number of RTAs; and (3) number of RTA memberships by countries within each RTA grouping, in a panel of 53 African countries from 1995 to 2014. The gravity models are estimated with the Eicker-White robust covariance Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) which is superior to previous ones. All the estimates concur that multi-memberships have significant additional intra-Africa trade benefits which increase with the number of memberships. The implication is that although RTAs enhance trade in Africa, it is only a second-best to a complete integration of the African continent. A complete dismantling of politically induced trade barriers and even inter-RTA boundaries within Africa will yield significant intra-Africa trade benefits. The results support the ongoing efforts in Africa in pursuing a “one Africa” vision. Such efforts have to transcend regional integration and pursue the ideal of an integrated Africa for the full trade benefits to be realized.     

The WTO,the Doha Round Impasse,PTAs, and FTAs/RTAs

Beginning in 2001, the Doha Rounds afforded World Trade Organization (WTO) members the opportunity to develop equitable trade rules between the developed and developing member states. The WTO has been successful in advancing multilateral international trade; however, since the Doha Rounds stalemate, it has witnessed the development of more than 300 Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) and over 500 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). This article attempts to answer two questions: (1) has the failure of the Doha Rounds contributed to the proliferation of PTAs and FTAs, and (2) are these agreements threatening the regulatory authority of the WTO, which, in turn, reduces its ability to effectively promote and govern free trade, and its mission?     

Impact of trade openness on GDP growth: Does TFP matter?

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study is to empirically explore the impact of trade openness on GDP growth initiating with the idea that trade openness cannot be fully characterized through the different openness measures only, we propose to account for total factor productivity (TFP) development level as an additional dimension of countries’ trade integration. Our empirical application is based on 35 years’ balanced panel of 82 countries spanning 1980–2014. To address the potential endogeneity issue, we use the system GMM estimator developed for dynamic panel data models. The results outline that there exists an interesting non-linear pattern between trade openness and GDP growth when TFP development level is taken as an intervening variable into account: trade may have a negative impact on GDP growth when countries have specialized in low-TFP development level; trade openness clearly boosts GDP growth once countries exhibit a minimum threshold of TFP development level. Therefore, there is some pattern of complementarity between trade openness and TFP development level so that the higher the TFP development level, the higher the impact of the trade openness on GDP growth.     

Tariff wars in the Ricardian Model with a continuum of goods

This paper describes strategic tariff choices within the Ricardian framework of Dornbusch, Fischer, and Samuelson (1977) using CES preferences. The optimum tariff schedule is uniform across goods and inversely related to the import demand elasticity of the other country. In the Nash equilibrium of tariffs, larger economies apply higher tariff rates. Productivity adjusted relative size (≈ GDP ratio) is a sufficient statistic for absolute productivity advantage and the size of the labor force. Both countries apply higher tariff rates if specialization gains from comparative advantage are high and transportation cost is low. A sufficiently large economy prefers the inefficient Nash equilibrium in tariffs over free trade due to its quasi-monopolistic power on world markets. The required threshold size is increasing in comparative advantage and decreasing in transportation cost. I discuss the implications of the static Nash-equilibrium analysis for the sustainability and structure of trade agreements.     

How to Balance the Outcomes of the Economic Partnership Agreements for Sub‐Saharan African Economies?

Since 2002, the Sub‐Saharan African countries ( except South Africa which already has a free‐trade agreement with the EU ) have embarked on free‐trade agreement negotiations with the European Union. These arrangements will replace the Cotonou scheme, which requires these countries to eliminate their tariffs on ‘substantially’ all their European imports. Based on a general equilibrium analysis, this study estimates the potential effects of these agreements by considering different levels of reciprocity in the commitments of the Sub‐Saharan African countries. It shows that the ‘standard’ EU proposal, whereby Sub‐Saharan African countries would cut tariffs on 80 per cent of their European imports, would not be enough to balance the outcome of the Economic Partnership Agreements. As a result of the asymmetries between European and African protections and supply‐side capacities, African countries could experience a balance of trade deficit of USD 1.8 billion associated with a 0.1 per cent decrease in GDP. This proposal, which also induces an industrial restructuring to the benefit of the agro‐processing industries, will create a significant fiscal burden. A lesser level of commitment could largely mitigate these unfavourable results; by reciprocating tariff eliminations on only 60 per cent of their European imports, African countries would reduce the trade imbalance and fiscal losses induced by these agreements by 21 and 51 per cent respectively.     

Multilateralisation of Preferences versus Reciprocity when FTAs are Underutilized

Most studies worldwide, and all on East Asia on the impact of free trade agreements (FTAs), have assumed full utilisation of preferences. The evidence suggests that this assumption is seriously in error, with the estimated uptake particularly low in East Asia. In this paper, we assume a more realistic utilisation rate in estimating impacts. We find that actual utilisation rates significantly diminish the benefits from preferential liberalisation, but in a non‐linear way. Reciprocity is an important motivation for pursuing FTAs over unilateral actions, such as multilateralisation of preferences. We isolate the impact of reciprocity, but find that the additional benefits also depend on utilisation rates. Furthermore, the potential for trade deflection combined with possible retaliatory actions could negatively affect members and non‐members. In the absence of Doha, unilateral multilateralism or non‐reciprocal multilateralisation of preferences is the practical route that is most likely to deliver the greatest benefits.     

Exploring booth design as a determinant of trade show success

Purpose: Marketing scholars have joined managers in recognizing the significance of design in many domains. Superior design can enhance products, communications, packaging, and retail settings. However, no scholarly research has investigated design effects in a business-to-business (B-to-B) context. This research will explore the impact of design decisions in trade shows, a key component of the B-to-BB-to-B marketing mix. Trade show success depends on attracting attendees to an exhibitor’s booth because buyer preferences and business relationships are formed and nurtured in that space. The design of a booth plays an important role in attracting visitors and providing a positive business atmosphere.

Methodology/approach: The present study draws upon several streams of literature to examine this neglected aspect of B-to-B research. We offer a conceptual framework, followed by an empirical study of trade show attendees. Respondents evaluated various booth prototypes representing different combinations of key design elements via a conjoint-based method.

Findings: Findings suggest that design matters in a B-to-B trade show setting. Our results indicate that specific design elements affect an attendee’s willingness to enter different booths. Our sample displayed a coherent set of preferences for exhibit design features. Finally, we found that some attendee characteristics moderated the effect of design on preferences—notably the theory-driven characteristics of product agenda breadth and CVPA, rather than simple demographics produced these moderating effects.

Research implications: We have shown that the topic of design is relevant for B-to-B researchers. This research has identified meaningful and managerially relevant design preferences. In addition, we constructed a research framework for investigating behavioral responses to trade show booths, including four key design attributes. We empirically examined this framework with an easily reproducible conjoint methodology that may be useful for future research.

Practical implications: Our results provide actionable managerial guidance on the aesthetics of booth design. There is a general preference for closed designs i.e., attendees prefer having an intercept point in the booth where they may gain information. In addition, the closed design signals a higher density of things to see in the booth, while offering a private, safe environment as well as more spatial comfort. Attendees preferred higher amounts of surface decoration. Booths with low decoration tend to be perceived as less complex, and therefore less stimulating.

Originality/value/contribution: We examined long neglected implications of design to B-to-B marketing and investigated a key determinant of trade show performance. We believe this study has relevance to both scholars and practitioners while setting a roadmap for future research.     

Formulating Trade Policy in a Small Hydrocarbon‐dependent Economy: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago

We examine the status of Trinidad and Tobago's trade policy regime based mainly on the WTO's Trade Policy Review 2005 and to a lesser extent the Review of 1998. The paper highlights the areas identified by the WTO that the country needs to address to ensure compliance with the rules, disciplines and commitments made under the Multilateral Trade Agreements and the existence of a trade regime characterised by little or no distortions. It undertakes this discussion against the background of Trinidad and Tobago's role as a founding member of CARICOM and the increasing influence of this body in determining its trade policies in particular and economic policies in general. The study highlights the progress made by Trinidad and Tobago in establishing an outward‐oriented trade regime since embracing reforms in the mid‐1980s. However, the need for much deeper reforms is stressed if the country is to realise its ambitious objective of becoming the manufacturing base and the commercial, trans‐shipment and financial hub of the western hemisphere. Further, it points to the inextricable link between the country's economic fortunes and international petroleum prices, and increasing over‐reliance on the hydrocarbons sector. Consequently, it stresses the need for getting its diversification strategy ‘right’ if it is to minimise the fallout effects associated with the bust that inevitably follows a petroleum boom.     

Reciprocal Cooperation and the Moderating Effect of Individualism: A Five-Country Negotiation Study

ABSTRACT

Researchers have conceptualized the problem-solving approach to include cooperation between negotiators in order to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes. The observed cooperation between parties embodies the concept of positive reciprocity where negotiators match the cooperative bargaining strategy of their counterparts. Using this premise, the current study investigates reciprocity through the relationship between negotiators’ perceptions of their counterpart's cooperative behaviors and their own reported behaviors. The mitigating effect of individualism-collectivism on the above relationship is also explored. The findings provide empirical evidence that negotiators’ perceptions of their counterpart's cooperative behaviors are positively related to their own strategy. This relationship was consistently supported across five groups of business negotiators: Canadian Anglophone, Greek, Mexican, Filipino, and American. However, this positive reciprocal relationship is negated when the negotiator comes from an individualistic-type culture.     

What's the Point of Reciprocal Trade Negotiations? Exports,Imports, and Gains from Trade

This paper explains why trade‐policy makers may prefer reciprocal trade negotiations (RTN) to unilateral tariff reductions (UTR) for economic reasons. It answers puzzles like ‘Why WTO reciprocity?’ and strengthens the unnecessarily weak case made for the WTO by those who downplay or dismiss benefits from foreign tariff reductions (FTR). RTN is superior to UTR because it provides economic benefits that UTR cannot – namely, FTR benefits which are clearer than potentially important UTR benefits: Whereas each policy offers efficiency gains, any terms‐of‐trade effect of UTR generally detracts from these gains, while any terms‐of‐trade effect of FTR is typically beneficial (especially for a small price‐taking country) with this benefit augmenting FTR's efficiency gains. Moreover, benefits from reductions in foreign barriers may come from several sources; they are not solely the result of terms‐of‐trade improvement – or economies of scale (the two benefits already noted in the literature, though often dismissed). For example, with foreign NTB elimination, possible home benefits are shown even with rising costs and terms‐of‐trade deterioration. RTN is also superior to UTR because, by eliminating protection in either NTB or tariff form, RTN provides an escape from not only a terms‐of‐trade prisoners’ dilemma, but many other previously unrecognised prisoners’ dilemmas, including one in international rent transfers, and several others with no economies‐of‐scale or terms‐of‐trade motivation. Of course, if superior RTN is not an option, UTR may well be desirable. If reciprocity is an option, but only in a narrower CU or FTA form, such reciprocity may still be superior to UTR, or it may be inferior; theory cannot unambiguously rank these.     

Trade,growth and wage inequality in Bangladesh

Abstract

Using model selection techniques based on out-of-sample predictive ability criterion in a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework, this paper empirically examines the causal relations among growth, trade, and wage inequality in Bangladesh between 1971 and 2000. There is some evidence of bi-directional causality between growth and inequality and between trade and growth. That growth causes trade and that trade causes inequality are robust results. Furthermore, evidence strongly suggests that investment is important for trade, and the terms of trade between agricultural products and manufacturing products is an important causal determinant of both growth and trade.     

Trade Shows and Fairs

Abstract

This article describes importance and value of trade shows/fairs to firms as they engage in the process of internationalization. Primary discussion examines the unique impact of trade fairs as a promotional medium for organizations to consider as they determine their marketing strategy. Careful planning along with an understanding of the role of trade fairs within the promotion mix can mean the difference between success or failure in the global marketplace.     

The ‘disguised’ foreign investor: Brands,trademarks and the British expatriate entrepreneur in Brazil

Abstract

This article examines the impact of the British expatriate entrepreneur, and his processes of knowledge transfer, on the industrialization and economic development of Brazil between 1875 and 1914. It focuses on the textiles industry, and combines original trademark data with conventional trade and investment statistics, and also case study analysis about firms and their entrepreneurs. It argues that British investment in Brazil was higher and had a deeper impact on economic development than considered by existing research, as expatriate entrepreneurs ‘disguised’ a substantial amount of foreign investments by acting as shareholders and top managers of newly established local businesses.     

Transport costs and trade: Empirical evidence for Latin American imports from the European union

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between trade flows and transport costs. In previous studies the cost of transport was considered as an exogenous variable. However, an expanding volume of trade also reduces the unit cost of transport and, therefore, the causal relationship between trade and transport costs may be operating in both directions. A transport-costs equation is estimated using data on transportation costs from the International Transport Data Base (BTI). The relationship between transport costs and trade is then analysed by applying a gravity model for sectoral imports for five Latin American Countries from the European Union. We investigate the endogeneity of the transport cost and trade variables by estimating simultaneously both equations. Our results show that, while higher distance and poor importer's infrastructure notably increase transport costs, a higher volume of trade has the opposite effect. Moreover, trade is significantly deterred by higher transport costs and fostered by cultural similarities.     

An exhibitors perspective: factors affecting selection of industrial trade shows in India and the importance of spot sales

ABSTRACT

Purpose: To identify the factors affecting the selection of trade shows in India and the role of spot sales in decision-making.

Design/methodology/approach: This study uses a primary approach. It has been done with the help of data collected from exhibitors’ responses to a standard questionnaire (appendix) through offline mode. Finally, the collected data was used for analysis with the help of SPSS 21. Multivariate data analysis techniques such as factor analysis, correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling were used in the study.

Findings: The findings of the study revealed that perceived show value was the most important factor of selecting a trade show followed by measurable cost, timing and lastly show attractions. Spot sales were found to make a significant impact on the participating decision-making process. Some of the subjective factors such as facilities within the venue and connectivity to the venue made an impact on the exhibitors' selection of trade shows.

Practical implications: Organising a trade show requires a lot of money and effort and thus it becomes important that such events be successful. Thus, the study could be used by trade show organizers to attract exhibitors for participating in their show.

Originality/value: Although research studies have been conducted on the motives for participating in a trade show in the U.S. and Europe, very few were found relating to the identification of factors affecting the decision to participate. This number becomes still smaller when one considers the case of the growing Indian economy. Looking into these aspects, this study can be considered new and thus its originality remains high.