论汇率变动对出口价格的传递效应——中国、日本、东盟、德国经验数据比较研究

文章比较分析了中国、日本、德国和东盟四个国家(地区)汇率变动对以美元计价的对美出口商品价格指数的传递效应,结果显示中国是唯一在当期存在汇率传递影响的国家,但影响显著为正。短期内德国汇率传递效应最高,中国的传递效应最低。由于中国汇率传递的滞后时间较长,中国累计汇率传递效应值高于日本。在实证结果的基础上,文章认为在短期内无法改变出口商品技术含量和竞争力的情况下,人民币保持稳步的升值步伐比汇率上下波动更有利于企业价格的提高。     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

金融危机背景下汇市与股市关系实证研究

本文建立了由上证综指、汇率、利率与道·琼斯指数构成的多变量VAR模型,运用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解技术分析了金融危机背景下外汇市场与股票市场关系.实证分析结果表明:我国金融市场上汇率变动对股票价格有明显的短期作用,而股票价格变动对汇率没有影响;美国股市波动对我国股市的短期冲击超过人民币汇率对股市的冲击;我国的利率调整对汇率有短期效应,但对股票价格无影响.     

Do financial structures affect exchange rate and stock price interaction? Evidence from emerging markets

We investigated the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in eleven emerging markets over the period of 1988 to 2014 using cointegration methodology and multivariate granger causality tests. We find that in emerging markets, the inner-financial structure, which reflects the proportion of direct financing and indirect financing, plays an important role in the link between exchange rates and stock prices. For ten out of the eleven emerging markets studied, the financial structure had a significant impact, either through the flow channel or stock channel. The effects of financial-economic structure (FIR) were much smaller.     

Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics in Nigeria: An asymmetric perspective

This paper investigates the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on stock prices in Nigeria. Using the nonlinear ARDL framework and monthly data from 2000:1 to 2016:12, the nominal exchange rate is separated into currency depreciation and appreciation through a partial sum decomposition process. Asymmetry is examined both in the long-run relationship and short-run error correction mechanism. The results show that the effects of exchange rate changes on stock prices is asymmetric both in the short- and long-run. That is, stock prices react in different magnitude to depreciation and appreciation. However, currency depreciation has a strong pass-through effect on stock prices than appreciation in the long-run. In the absence of asymmetry, exchange rate has only short-run effect on stock prices. This implies that the symmetry assumption underestimates the impact of exchange rate changes on stock prices in Nigeria.     

Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets

This paper examines whether Asian emerging stock markets (India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand) have become integrated into world capital markets since their official liberalization dates by estimating and testing a dynamic integrated international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) using an asymmetric multivariate GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean approach. Also examined in this paper is whether there are pure contagion effects between stock and foreign exchange markets for each Asian country during the 1997 Asian crisis. The empirical results show that first, both currency and world market risks are priced and time-varying, suggesting that an international asset pricing model under PPP and constant price of risk might give rise to model misspecification. Second, the stock markets for India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand were segmented from the world capital markets before their liberalization dates, but all six markets have become fully integrated since then. Third, the market liberalization has reduced the cost of capital and price volatility for most of the countries. Finally, as for the contagion effects, strong positive impact of return shocks originating from the domestic stock market to its foreign exchange market during the crisis is found. This dynamic relationship between stock market and foreign exchange market is consistent with stock-oriented exchange rate models.     

Pricing Stock Options in a Jump‐Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility and Interest Rates: Applications of Fourier Inversion Methods

Fast closed form solutions for prices on European stock options are developed in a jump‐diffusion model with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates. The probability functions in the solutions are computed by using the Fourier inversion formula for distribution functions. The model is calibrated for the S and P 500 and is used to analyze several effects on option prices, including interest rate variability, the negative correlation between stock returns and volatility, and the negative correlation between stock returns and interest rates.     

A disequilibrium analysis of the monetary trade model

This paper examines the monetary approach to the balance of payments under fixed exchange rates when domestic prices and wage rates are not fully flexible. This leads to a formulation in the spirit of a ‘disequilibrium analysis’. We analyze alternatively the cases where the prices of nontraded goods or the nominal wage rate are treated as state variables along with the stock of money. The properties of these systems are analyzed from the point of view of the momentary equilibrium and of the dynamic adjustment process.     

Foreign Exchange Reserves and Import Demand: Evidence from Latin America

This paper investigates the impact of foreign reserves, domestic real income and relative import prices on import demand for seven Latin American countries. We differentiate empirically between the short‐run and long‐run impact of reserves, income and prices on imports. The paper has three main results. First, we show that there exists a unique long‐run relationship among real imports, real income, relative import prices and real foreign exchange reserves for all seven countries. Second, we find that increases in foreign exchange reserves exert a significant positive effect on import demand in both the long run and the short run in all countries. However, the economic impact of foreign exchange reserves is rather small. Finally, we find that the long‐ and short‐run impact of real domestic income on import demand is positive as well, while the effect of relative prices is negative.     

Evidence on the dynamic relationship between international trade and the stock market

This study uses vector autoregressive analysis to examine the dynamic interactions of monthly real stock returns, return volatility, exchange rates, export growth and import growth for Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan for the period 1975–91. We find that exports and imports have significant interactions. The results also indicate that stock returns in Hong Kong and Singapore Granger-cause trade flows. Return volatility is found to react strongly to trade news in all four countries, a result supporting the efficient-market hypothesis.     

Persistent real exchange rates

Three well known facts that characterize exchange rate data are: (a) the high correlation between bilateral nominal and real exchange rates; (b) the high degree of persistence in real exchange rate movements; and (c) the high volatility of real exchange rates. This paper attempts a joint, albeit partial, rationalization of these facts in an environment with no staggered contracts and where prices are preset for only one quarter. There are two key innovations in the paper. First, we augment a standard two-country open economy model with learning-by-doing in production at the firm level. This induces monopolistically competitive firms to endogeneize the productivity effect of their price setting behavior. Specifically, firms endogenously choose not to adjust prices by the full proportion of a positive monetary shock in order to take advantage of the productivity benefits of higher production. Second, we introduce habits in leisure. This makes the labor supply decision dynamic and adds an additional source of propagation. We show that the calibrated model can quantitatively reproduce significant fractions of the aforementioned facts. Moreover, as in the data, the model also produces a positive correlation between the terms of trade and the nominal exchange rate.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Interest Rates in Ghana

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of the bank lending rate in Ghana using annual time series data from 1970 to 2013. We found evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the average lending rate charged by commercial banks and its determining factors. In the long run, bank lending rates in Ghana are positively influenced by nominal exchange rates and Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy rate but negatively with fiscal deficit, real GDP and inflation. We also find positive dependence of the bank lending rate on exchange rates, and the monetary policy rate both in the short and long run. Specifically, our findings reveal that the Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy rate and the exchange rate, by far, show strong contemporaneous effects on the average bank lending rate in Ghana.     

国际原油价格波动对人民币汇率的冲击效应研究

在结合理论模型分析的基础上,以2001年1月至2010年3月国际原油价格和人民币实际有效汇率的月度数据为主要研究样本,采用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,实证分析了国际油价波动对人民币实际有效汇率的动态冲击效应。研究结果表明:国际油价上涨对人民币实际有效汇率产生了负向影响,但冲击后的有效汇率在回归到零值后会越过零值重新回到升值的趋势中;国际油价上涨对CPI有显著的正向影响,国际油价上涨是推高CPI的一个重要因素;国际油价上涨引起了工业增加值增长率的波动;国际油价上涨对出口增长率的影响表现出J曲线的特征。     

我国物流业与国内外贸易动态关联性研究——基于VAR模型和VEC模型的经验实证

本文通过构建非约束性向量自回归模型和包含协整约束条件的向量自回归模型以及脉冲响应函数,研究我国物流业和我国国内外贸易之间的关联性。经验实证研究表明,我国物流业、对外贸易和国内贸易三者之间存在且仅存在唯一协整关系,物流业的发展对国内贸易和对外贸易的促进作用是长期且持续稳定的,三者之间存在明显的联动机制,与对外贸易相比,国内贸易对物流业发展的推动作用要显著得多,二者之间的联动效应更为突出。     

Does Euro or Dollar Pegging Impact the Real Exchange Rate? The Case of Oil and Commodity Currencies

The aim of this paper is to investigate the equilibrium exchange rates for commodity and oil currencies as well as the discrepancies of their observed exchange rates to these equilibriums. To this end, first, we estimate a long‐term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals, including the commodity terms of trade. The estimation relies on panel cointegration techniques and covers annual data from 1980 to 2007. Our results show that real exchange rates co‐move with commodity prices in the long run and respond to oil price somewhat less than to commodity prices. Second, we assess the degree of misalignment of these currencies, as the gap between their observed exchange rate and the estimated equilibrium exchange rate. We show that these misalignments are not significantly related to the exchange rate regimes adopted by the countries, either pegged or floating. However, for pegged currencies, the size of misalignments significantly depends on the anchor currency, either the euro or the dollar. A comparison of misalignments of pegged commodity and oil currencies across different periods confirms these results: during periods of dollar (euro) overvaluation, currencies pegged to the dollar (euro) tend to be overvalued; the reverse being true when the dollar (euro) is undervalued. Consequently, pegged currencies are often driven away from their equilibria by wild fluctuations in the key currencies, on which they are anchored.     

ASSET PRICES,OUTPUT AND MONETARY POLICY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

We formulate a macro‐model of a small open economy in order to investigate the relative performance of rules that respond to asset prices and those that do not. Our model consists of three asset prices: the stock price, the long‐term interest rate and the exchange rate. These asset prices interact with nominal wage and price Phillips curves, a law of motion for the labour share, a dynamic IS curve that describes output adjustment and a Taylor‐type interest rate policy rule. Estimations of the model show that policy rules that respond to asset price movements dominate rules that do not.     

Stock pricing in Latin America: The synchronicity effect

This paper investigated whether the stock price synchronicity level (SPSL) is a pricing factor in the Latin American scenario. To do so, the shares with the highest liquidity level listed in the stock exchange in five Latin American (LA) countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru) were used. The results indicated that the SPSL is associated with a positive premium. This premium was obtained by the CAPM model and by the Fama-French three- and five-factor models. There was evidence that the average SPSL increases in periods of greater turmoil in the financial markets. Moreover, it was found that the SPSLs are not associated monotonically with the efficiency levels of stock prices. Overall, the use of the SPSL factor in asset pricing models reduced the bias in estimating the stock premiums in LA.     

EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

This article examines empirically the exchange rate pass-through of car manufacturers on the Swedish market. It first analyzes the changes in prices by supplying countries during the period 1976 - 1996. In a second stage, the relationship between price-level adjusted exchange rates and quality-adjusted prices is investigated. Although there exist significant differences across countries, the evidence shows that actual price adjustments are associated with stabilization of local currency prices. The policy implication of the results is that the use of an exchange rate policy in the case of external imbalances should therefore be reconsidered within the broader context of how market structure and conduct influence the optimal pricing of traded goods.     

Do Foreign Investors Promote Stock Price Efficiency in Emerging Markets?

This paper examines the role of foreign investors in promoting stock price efficiency in emerging stock markets relying on the fact that stock prices in these markets are influenced by both local and global factors. We employ a data sample of Vietnamese‐listed firms on the Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange over the period from 2006 to 2015. We utilize the panel data estimation analysis. The results show that foreign investors accelerate the incorporation of available information into local stock prices. The finding reinforces the important role of foreign investors in domestic stock markets of emerging economies.     

Duopolists’ Retail Pricing Behavior in Multiple Markets

The law of one price asserts that, with costless trade, prices for identical goods in different countries should be equal after accounting for the exchange rate. The empirical literature suggests that exchange rate pass-through to prices is low and that the law of one price fails; instead, firms are more likely to price to market. This study adds to the literature by examining the pricing strategy of comic book firms within the context of the competition’s pricing behavior in a duopoly industry. Comic books, uniquely, display their retail prices in multiple countries on their cover giving us detailed information about the pricing behavior of each individual firm and their competition which allows us to test a pricing-to-market model. We find that an empirical model of an imperfectly applied law of one price outperforms a simple competitive, pricing-to-market model of pricing. Retail exchange rate pass-through rates between Canada and the United States average 76.8 %. This high exchange rate pass-through rate for comic books exists despite the existence of sticky prices and convenience pricing.