Exchange rate regime and external adjustment: An empirical investigation for the US

This paper analyses the relationship between the US net external position and the exchange rate regime. I find a structural break in the US net external position at the end of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates that changed both the mean and variance of the series. On average, the US changed from a creditor to a debtor position and the variance of the external position increased during the floating period. This increase is to a large extent due to the valuation component of external adjustment that accounts for 54% of the variance of the US external position during the floating period but only 29% during the fixed exchange rate period. Further analysis shows that the exchange rate regime mainly affects the valuation channel of external adjustment. There is also evidence of another structural break in the US external position around the time of the introduction of the euro. Finally, I document asset pricing implications from the relationship between the exchange rate regime and the external adjustment process, as external imbalances predict the foreign exchange once the exchange rate regime is taken into account.     

An Evaluation of Marketing Practices in Banks in Ghana

ABSTRACT

This study ascertains the extent to which the marketing concept has been adopted and implemented by banks in Ghana. It addresses a gap in an area that is currently under researched and provides insight into the banking services industry in a developing country. All sixteen licensed banks in Ghana were included in this study. The data was collected through in-depth interviews and self completed questionnaires. The results suggest that marketing departments in the banks are organised mainly within headquarters and headed by marketing and advertising/public relations managers. The marketing activities in the banks are associated with the stage where marketing orientation is perceived as advertising and public relations. There is a partial lack of marketing culture in the banks. The total and formal acceptance and understanding of the marketing concept is at an embryonic stage in the evolutionary process.     

货币主义现代汇率理论评述

货币主义汇率理论是汇率理论的主要学派。多恩布什(Dornbusch)是货币主义现代汇率理论的代表人物。但是多恩布什的粘性价格货币模型在实证检验中很不理想而受到广泛质疑。文章对以多恩布什为代表的货币主义现代汇率理论进行了评述，并介绍了奥布斯特菲尔德和罗高夫(Obsfield，M．and K．Rogoff)建立的汇率动态模型。最后，文章介绍了货币主义现代汇率理论发展的方向。     

Segmented asset markets and optimal exchange rate regimes

This paper revisits the issue of the optimal exchange rate regime in a flexible price environment. The key innovation is that we analyze this question in the context of environments where only a fraction of agents participate in asset market transactions (i.e., asset markets are segmented). Under this friction alternative exchange rate regimes have different implications for real allocations in the economy. In the context of this environment we show that flexible exchange rates are optimal under monetary shocks and fixed exchange rates are optimal under real shocks.     

Current account sustainability in Latin America

This paper examines the sustainability of the current account deficit in eighteen Latin American countries through the analysis of the stationarity properties of the current account balance. First, we apply traditional unit root tests and consider the possibility of structural breaks. Second, since the current account may have a nonlinear behaviour, we test for linearity in the data and analyse current account stationarity by means of a recently developed nonlinear unit root test. Results from linear and nonlinear unit root tests show that current account sustainability is supported for the majority of Latin American countries with the exception of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Paraguay. For the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela the current account dynamics are best described by a stationary linear model, and by a stationary linear model with a mean shift in years 2003, 1982 and 1980 in Bolivia, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, respectively. In the case of Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala, results show that the current account is best described by a mean-reverting nonlinear process.     

Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators

This study examines the sustainability of current account deficits (CADs) and validity of intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) for 24 OECD countries. While the OLSEG, ML system, and OLSGH estimates of the model do not provide support, the GMM, DOLS, and NLLS estimates provide consistent support for the sustainability of CADs across most countries. The estimates of the model with multiple structural breaks reinforce the sustainability of CADs. The results provide dominant support for the sustainability of CADs and validity of IBC across most countries. The CADs are only short-run phenomena and are balanced by future surpluses.     

Saving–investment correlations and the mobility of capital in the OECD countries: New evidence from cointegration breakdown tests

ABSTRACT

This study examines the long-run relationship between domestic saving and investment and undertakes an in-depth account of short-period breaks in the cointegrating vector for 24 OECD countries. The analysis is carried out in a time-series setting to take a country-by-country account of the evidence. The end-of-sample cointegration breakdown tests are performed on both FMOLS and FIML estimates of the model. The cointegrating relationship between domestic saving and investment prevails and the implied intertemporal budget constraint holds for most countries. The cointegration breaks down for some countries during the sub-sample periods. The results are generally consistent across various cointegration breakdown tests.     

Current account and relative prices: Are there any cointegration relationships in the presence of structural breaks in emerging economies?

The aim of this study is to examine the long-run relationship between the current account and relative prices, such as terms of trade (TOT) and real exchange rate, for the emerging economies. These variables have been exposed to large fluctuations for more than two decades in all emerging economies; therefore, structural breaks have to be taken into account in all estimations. In this article, various methodological techniques have been used to examine this long-run relationship (with and without the structural breaks). Two important results have emerged, first; when the structural changes are excluded there is a strong evidence for long-run relationship between current account and relative prices. Second; when the structural breaks are included, variables are found to be stationary. Hence, depending on the stability of the variables, the validity of the cointegration relationship has been seriously questioned. This study illustrates that the test results proving non-stationary of the series and the presence of cointegration may be spurious if there is any possibility of instability.     

Exchange Rate Shocks and U.S. Services and Agricultural Exports: Which Export Sector is More Affected?

In this article, a vector autoregressive model is constructed with monthly data from 1992:1 to 2009:12 to investigate the exchange rate propagation mechanisms to real exports of U.S. services and agricultural sectors. Using plausible identification assumptions consistent with many open economy macro models, the results indicate that exchange rate shocks impact services exports more than they do on agricultural exports. Moreover, the shocks are more persistent on services relative to agricultural exports.     

基于VAR模型的人民币有效汇率就业效应

基于向量自回归模型,对人民币实际有效汇率的就业效应进行实证分析,结果表明就业量和人民币实际有效汇率之间存在长期均衡关系,长期而言人民币实际有效汇率上升1%就业量将下降0.1821%。因此,人民币实际有效汇率的波动率对就业量仅存在微弱的负面影响。     

How do manufacturing exports react to the real exchange rate and foreign demand? The Chilean case

How do manufacturing exports react to the real exchange rate and to foreign demand? We investigate this question with a Chilean panel data spanning from 2003Q1 to 2016Q4, using publicly available data. In the long term, we find that exports strongly co-integrate with external demand, whereas not with the level of the real exchange rate. The short-run elasticities of manufacturing exports differ in size: (a) the elasticity of foreign demand—approximated by trading partners' activity aggregates—ranges between 0.8 and 1.4; and (b) the elasticity with respect to the bilateral real exchange rate is comprehended in the interval [0.4–0.6]. Core estimated elasticities pass usual robustness checks. The fall in manufacturing exports' growth in 2014–16 is consistent with a persistent slowdown in foreign demand, which has been partially offset by an average depreciation of the bilateral real exchange rate (with respect to destination countries of these exports). The transience of the effect of the real exchange rate is coherent with its exhibited stationarity and also consistent with its role of shock absorber.