Stock return predictability of the cumulative abnormal returns around the earnings announcement date: Evidence from China

We find that cumulative abnormal returns adjusted by size, book-to-market, and momentum around the earnings announcement date (DGTW_CAR3 hereafter) significantly and positively predict stock returns in the 6-month period from May 2005 to October 2020 in the China's A-shares market. The monthly equally-weighted DGTW_CAR3 premiums are 0.47% and 0.67% after risk adjustment. Although stock price delay fails to fully account for the DGTW_CAR3 premium, we find that the DGTW_CAR3 premium is more significant for illiquid stocks and during periods with high investor sentiment. This result suggests that market inefficiency explains the DGTW_CAR3 premium. Further analysis shows that, in addition to earnings information, the optimism reflected in the management discussion and analysis section of the annual or half-year report also contributes to the DGTW_CAR3 premium. This finding implies that DGTW_CAR3 may contain new fundamental information that correlates significantly and positively with future stock performance. Finally, we find that the institutional ownership change of a stock associated with DGTW_CAR3 also significantly and positively predicts the stock's return, suggesting that institutional investors adjust their holdings according to DGTW_CAR3 and consequently influence the demand for the stock in the China's A-shares market.     

Stock price informativeness and analyst coverage

We examine whether more analyst coverage translates into more informative stock prices and apply this to both developed and emerging markets. We measure price informativeness using the association between current stock returns and future earnings. We argue that more informative stock prices contain more information about future earnings. Results indicate that analysts' activities do not contribute to the impounding of future earnings information into current stock prices, in accordance with the view that analysts are outsiders who do not have full access to firm‐level information. We also find that analysts specialize according to industry and that “industry expertise” is limited to developed countries. Overall, our evidence is consistent with the explanation that analysts focus on gathering and mapping industry‐ and market‐level information (macroeconomic information) into stock prices. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

股票送转、除权日异常收益与分析师关注度

本文使用事件研究的方法,利用1999年到2009年的中国股市上市公司的股票送股、转增事件的相关数据,分析发现这些股票会由于除权日时间而获得正的异常收益,这一结果不随着不同的统计假设、送转事件是否伴随着现金红利以及按照送股与转增的比例、现金红利数量划分的子样本而改变。探究这种异常收益的来源,发现分析师关注度(下文以分析师关注度来代替)会正向显著的影响异常收益;每多一名分析师关注这支送转的股票会在除权日多带来0.2元的异常收益,并且这种关系是稳健的,进一步通过工具变量回归解决了分析师关注的内生性。     

中国上市公司首次股票股利信号传递有效性的实证研究

20世纪90年代中后期股票股利曾是我国证券市场较为盛行的分配方式,并因能够带来积极的股价超额收益而被视为是一种典型的信号传递过程。然而本文通过对A股一般行业上市公司首次股票股利分配后的公司业绩进行长期跟踪考察,发现首次分配股票股利的公司无论盈利性或增长能力都明显持续下降,并不能充分支持信号传递假说。统计检验和模型分析均表明,在信息不对称条件下,公司盲目追求股权融资和市场过热的投资预期,在一定程度上削弱了我国股票股利政策传递积极信号的功能,这是这种分配方式不断降温的内在原因。     

Asymmetric Post-Announcement Drift to Good and Bad News: Evidence from Voluntary Trading Disclosures in the Chinese Stock Market

This article investigates the post-announcement drift (PAD) of stock returns in the Chinese stock market. We use a sample of voluntary trading disclosures to test the hypothesis that an asymmetric PAD exists in a market in which managers are more likely to suppress negative news. We show that a pattern of short-term momentum and long-term reversal in returns persists for up to 250 trading days following the announcement of trading statements in the Chinese stock market. This finding is stronger for positive announcements in terms of the magnitude and the variance of stock returns. Our findings are in line with both Shin’s theoretical predictions and the credibility hypothesis, in which disclosure and asset returns are jointly determined and the adoption of a “sanitisation strategy” in information disclosure generates more volatile returns for firms issuing good news. Further, we show that the latter effect is more pronounced for firms which are partially state-owned, suggesting that they potentially receive more government support, a finding which is in line with the hypothesis that the incentive to suppress negative information is related to a country’s legal/judicial system.     

Product Regulation and Stock Prices: The Case of the US Food and Drug Administration

This study focuses on the stock market effects associated with the announcements of product approvals, denials and recalls by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the impact of product approvals on research and development expenditures (R&D) and forecasts of earnings by Value Line. When the FDA announces approvals, the shareholder wealth of affected firms increases significantly. The announcements of denials and recalls by the FDA are associated with stock price declines. The stock price impact of recalls is dependent on whether the firm voluntarily withdraws a product or if the withdrawal is mandated by the FDA. Specifically, voluntary recalls are not associated with a change in stockholder wealth, while FDA mandated recalls are associated with decreases in stock price. In addition, we find that partial product recalls have a smaller impact than total recalls. An examination of the effects on competitors' stock price reveals losses when the FDA announces an approval or a recall, but no imt for a d. An analysis of changes in risk around FDA decisions suggests that, on average, betas do not change around approvals, recalls or denials. In addition, our results suggest that announcement period stock price behavior is unrelated to risk changes except for approvals where returns are positive and significant for firms with either increasing risk or no change in risk. We also find that approvals are associated with increases in R&D and forecasts of earnings for the sample firms, with returns to stockholders upon announcement of the approval being related to the increases in R&D and short-term earnings forecasts.     

香港上市公司盈余公告日附近异常市场回报率研究

文章采用动态资产定价模型(conditional CAPM),避免了无风险收益率及市场风险回报率在期间可能变动的问题;研究结果并未发现盈余公告期间市场风险回报率的显著增长,却发现决定系数R2变小,这一点验证了公司公告发布日附近的期望收益更多的是由公司个别因素、而不是市场因素来决定的。同时,我们还发现异常回报率和公司规模之间的相对较弱的负相关性。     

股利政策信息结构与股价行为研究

通过构建股利政策信息结构和时空两维股利信息模型,研究中国上市公司不同股利政策的信息结构、信息环境及其对波动性、市场深度和流动性等股价行为的影响。研究发现现金股利政策公告前,没有发现显著的信息性交易行为;股票股利政策公告前后,市场信息结构没有发生显著的变化;不分配利润的企业在公告前,出现了显著的由信息引起的交易行为;公司发布股利政策不仅能够传递公司价值的信息,而且公司价值信息的传递还与市场所处的信息环境密切相关,不同的信息环境、信息结构影响了信息作用于市场变量的变化路径。     

The capital market spillover effect of product market advertising: Evidence from stock price synchronicity

We analyze whether product market advertising has a spillover effect on stock price synchronicity by transmitting firm-specific information to the capital market and attracting more investor attention. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2017, we find that firms with greater advertising expenditures have lower stock price synchronicity. The results are robust after we address endogeneity concerns. In accord with our hypothesis that product market advertising increases the amount of firm-level information capitalized into stock prices through the information channel, we find that the impact of advertising on synchronicity is more pronounced for firms with a higher degree of information asymmetry and firms in the consumer-product industry. Further tests show that product market advertising enhances the ability of current period returns to reflect future earnings, and thus rules out that the negative relationship between advertising and synchronicity is driven by noise trading. Our results imply that product market advertising plays an informative role and improves information efficiency in a capital market.     

The Effect of Timeliness and Credit Ratings on the Information Content of Earnings Announcements

This paper investigates the impact of timeliness and credit ratings on the information content of the earnings announcements of Greek listed firms from 2001 to 2008. Using the classical event study methodology and regression analysis, we find that firms tend to release good news on time and are inclined to delay the release of bad news. We also provide evidence that the level of corporate risk differentiates the information content of earnings according to the credit rating category. Specifically, firms displaying high creditworthiness enjoy positive excess returns on earnings announcement dates. In contrast, firms with low creditworthiness undergo significant share price erosions on earnings announcement days. We also observe a substitution effect between timeliness and credit ratings in relation to the information content of earnings announcements. Specifically, we find that as the credit category of earnings-announcing firms improves, the informational role of timeliness is mitigated.     

The Disappearing January/Turn of the Year Effect: Evidence From Stock Index Futures and Cash Markets

This study examines the returns, relative to the S&P 500, on cash indices and futures tracking smaller stocks around the turn of the year. While we control for volatility clustering, return autocorrelation in small stock indices, and other calendar effects, our main focus is the evolution of the turn of the year effect through time: in particular, whether the effect is smaller or takes place earlier subsequent to the introduction of the S&P Midcap and Russell 2000 futures in 1993. We find that evidence of a traditional turn of the year effect, in both cash and futures, is confined to the pre‐1993 period. Post‐1993, there are no abnormal returns during the turn of the year window as a whole. Interestingly, returns in this period remain high on the last trading day of December, but they are negative across the first five trading days of January. In addition, post‐1993, we often observe significant abnormal returns prior to the traditional turn of the year, i.e., in the pre‐Christmas and post‐Christmas windows. Taken together, our results suggest that market participants may be eliminating the turn of the year effect with the aid of two new futures contracts that are well suited to this purpose. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:755–784, 2004     

Innovation source,advancement stage and company stock returns

The purpose of this paper was to measure the short- and long-term impact of innovation announcements on the stock returns of service companies. In order to study the predictors of the abnormal stock returns, the study takes the adoption and diffusion theory as its conceptual background. The research was based on an event study and buy-and-hold methods. It encompassed 398 announcements released for 121 companies in EU member states between February 2011 and December 2016. The study deepens the dialogue on the role of the source of innovation and its advancement stage. It indicates a positive market reaction to high innovation advancement stage announcements in comparison to low advancement stage ones. Furthermore, it suggests a positive market reaction to in-house development in comparison to collaborative development and copying. Finally, the research signals that the innovation advancement stage complements its source by clarifying its relationship with abnormal market value changes.     

An Analysis of Stock Market Response to the IOC's Commercial Partnership: The Case of the TOP Partnership Program

The purpose of this study was to investigate the empirical properties of stock market response. The financial impact of corporate sponsorship is reflected in the market value of a firm's stock price, which is measured by comparing the abnormal stock return between the preevent window (250 trading days) and the 14 trading days of the event period. Computations of ARs, CARs, and other test statistics were based on the event study model and were carried out using the SAS 9.2 software. For the preevent windows (t = ?3, t = ?1), there were statistically significant positive ARs and 80% of the TOP sponsors showed positive ARs in the overall duration of the Olympic Games. The overall CARs during the event period (t = ?3 through t = +10) indicates marginally positive returns for the event.     

Arbitrage risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China

We demonstrate that arbitrage risk, constructed using three measures — noise trader risk, trading cost and information uncertainty — can predict the return of stocks cross-sectionally in China. The findings are broadly consistent even when out-of-sample tests are conducted using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression approach. We also construct hypothetical portfolios using the information arising from arbitrage risk and find the existence of abnormal returns which is robust to the use of various portfolios constructed by re-sampling the observations through multiple approaches (e.g., by market capitalization and by book-to-market ratio). Lastly, we reconstruct our portfolios by considering the unique nature of the Chinese stock market (e.g., the dominance of individual investors). Our trading strategies again successfully obtain abnormal returns, suggesting that arbitrage risk can be useful to construct effective investment portfolios in China.     

How the Change of CEO Affects Chilean Companies' Stock Returns

ABSTRACT

This article uses the event study methodology to analyze the effects on Chilean companies' stock returns caused by the change of CEO. We find that when the change occurs after a period of poor performance, it is associated to significant positive abnormal stock returns. In certain cases, the abnormal returns accumulate to 6% over the seven-day period following the announcement. The study also shows that the observed abnormal returns have increased since the market regulating agency obligated companies to communicate changes in top management within three days of their ocurrence.

RESUMEN. Este artículo emplea la metodología de estudio del evento para analizar los efectos que un cambio de CEO provoca en los retornos de las acciones de las empresas chilenas. Descubrimos que cuando el cambio ocurre después de un período de pobre desempeño, el mismo está asociado a importantes retornos positivos anormales sobre las acciones. En algunos casos, los retornos anormales se acumulan en un 6% a lo largo de un período de siete días después del anuncio. El estudio también muestra que los retornos anormales observados han aumentado considerablemente, desde que la agencia reguladora del mercado obligó a las empresas a comunicar los cambios que efectuaban en su alta esfera ejecutiva dentro de los tres días de ocurrida.

RESUMO. Este artigo usa a metodologia de estudo de eventos para analisar os efeitos sobre os retornos de açóes de empresas chilenas causados pela mudança de CEO. Constatamos que, quando ocorre após um período de desempenho fraco, a mudança é associada a retornos de açóes anormais positivos significativos. Em certos casos, os retornos anormais acumulados chegam a 6% no período de sete dias após o anúncio. O estudo também mostra que os retornos anormais observados aumentaram depois que as agências reguladoras do mercado obrigaram as empresas a comunicarem mudanças na alta administraçáo até três dias após sua ocorrência.     

关于中国人力资本存量贬损的估算

人力资本存量贬损指人力资本承载者获得收入的能力、拓展收入空间能力的弱化或消失,其实质是人力资本承载者无法获得既有投资决策时点的预期投资收益。人力资本存量贬损的原因有三：收入能力弱化、人力资本闲置、人力资本报废。鉴于引发人力资本存量贬损原因的多样性,很难得到贬损的加总数据,需选用多个指标进行估算。本研究用收入数据度量人力资本承载者收入能力弱化;用闲置的工时、失业人数（或失业率）度量人力资本闲置;用永久性退出劳动力市场的人数度量人力资本报废。     

资本市场中的信息关联及其对投资收益的影响——基于复杂网络视角的实证研究

文章根据2008-2012年公募基金季报数据,通过图论中偶图及其映射变换,构建了投资者信息关联网络,从理论上阐释了信息关联的内涵及其对投资收益的影响。在研究中引入信息关联强度变量,发现在信息关联强度高时,对投资收益具有正向促进作用,并界定了信息关联效应的“时效边界”。研究还发现,信息关联优化了投资策略,投资者可以运用信息关联渠道形成的信息优势,在短期内获得超额收益。文章在模拟不同投资组合的基础上提出了一个可以获得更高收益的投资策略。文章的结论也为投资者了解关联网络对投资效益的溢出贡献,完善微观决策机制,提供了新的视角和实证支持。     

New product preannouncements,advertising investments,and stock returns

This study examines the synergistic effects of advertising spending and new product preannouncements (NPPAs) on stock market responses. The empirical results indicate that returns of preannouncing firms over both the short- and long-term could be improved by an increase in advertising expenditure. Additionally, the results also show that the positive impacts of earnings and revenues can be enhanced, while the negative influence of trading costs can be reduced, for preannouncing firms with higher advertising expenditures. The holding returns of institutional investors can also increase with greater spending on advertising. Therefore, marketing communication strategies that aim to reduce information asymmetry within NPPAs, coupled with greater advertising expenditures, would yield more favorable investor responses.     

Executive Stock Options and Manipulated Stock‐Price Performance

Previous studies have examined the manipulation of executive stock option awards and exercises, focusing on information timing by managers. In this paper, we investigate managerial manipulation of stock‐price performance motivated by stock options. To distinguish performance manipulation from information timing, we examine stock returns surrounding the departure of retiring CEOs, whose option holdings typically expire shortly after their departure and whose chances to manipulate option awards and exercises are minimized. Consistent with manipulated performance, we find significant abnormal stock returns in the months surrounding CEO departure for those with strong option incentives, which are reversed shortly after CEO departure.     

Chinese Traditionality Matters: Effects of Differentiated Empowering Leadership on Followers’ Trust in Leaders and Work Outcomes

Drawing on ethical principles of fairness and integrative social contracts theory, moral obligations of fair dealing exist between the firm and all shareholders. This study investigates empirically whether privileged investors of publicly traded firms engage in legal, but morally questionable, trading that at the expense of non-privileged institutional or atomistic investors. In this context, we define privilege as the access to material, nonpublic earnings surprise information. Our results show that the opportunity for procedural unfairness (e.g., the likelihood of an earnings surprise and information asymmetry) increases with the presence of privileged investors. However, this procedural unfairness does not appear to lead to distributive unfairness even though the level of abnormal trading also increases with the presence of privileged investors. That is, our findings suggest that other shareholders are in fact better off from an outcome perspective given that the abnormal stock price returns upon the announcement of an earnings surprise are either more positive (in response to a favorable surprise) or less negative (in the case of an unfavorable surprise) when the firm has a high proportion of privileged investors. We extract the important implications of our study for future research on the fairness of capital markets and information asymmetry amongst classes of investors, as well as for public policy.