Behavioral and Welfare Effects of Tournaments and Fixed Performance Contracts: Some Experimental Evidence

Using experimental economics, we compare the efficiency and welfare effects of tournaments and fixed performance contracts. Our subjects (agents) were generally better off under fixed performance contracts, but the advantage of the fixed performance contract disappears if the relative magnitude of the standard deviation of the common shock exceeds a critical value. Efficiency wise, agents tend to exert higher effort under fixed performance contracts, on average. Additionally, an increase in the common shock standard deviation appeared to be associated with lower effort under tournaments. Our results shed light on the potential impact of legislative proposals to ban tournament contracts.     

Tournaments, Fairness, and Risk

We estimate willingness to pay (WTP) to operate under two types of contracts—tournaments (Ts) and fixed performance-standard contracts (F). Our results are consistent with the notion that subjects having social preferences for fairness and care about risk. That is, when subjects experience greater inequity under tournaments relative to fixed performance contracts, or experience greater revenue risk under tournaments, the gap between WTP for fixed performance and tournament contracts increases, ceteris paribus. Our results provide an explanation for grower dissatisfaction with tournament compensation schemes independent of possible concerns regarding opportunistic behavior by integrators.     

农户兼业化程度对农业保险偏好的影响机理与实证分析

目的 随着农业结构调整深入推进,农户的收入来源逐渐多元化,文章通过研究农户兼业化程度对不同类型农业保险偏好的影响,为针对性推广农业保险提供依据和参考。方法 以湖北、湖南、河南3省粮食主产区的732份农户调查数据为基础,运用Logit模型和多元Logit模型分析农户兼业化程度对保险种类偏好的影响,讨论种植规模在务农收入占比和保险种类选择之间的调节效应,以是否有固定非农工作将农户分为不同类型的兼业农户进行异质性分析。结果 （1）务农收入占比高的农户偏好传统的物化成本保险,务农收入占比低的农户更喜欢新型指数保险。（2）兼业化程度相同的情况下,大规模农户比小规模农户更愿意保成本、保产量。（3）不同类型的兼业农户保险偏好存在差异,有固定非农工作的兼业农户比没有固定工作的兼业农户更愿意选择新型指数保险。结论 有必要在务农收入占比高、种植规模大、没有固定非农收入的农户中推广传统的物化成本保险;在务农收入占比低、种植规模小、有固定非农收入的农户中推广新型指数保险。     

AN ANALYSIS OF WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY FOR CROP INSURANCE*

In this paper a method for estimating a producer's willingness-to-pay for crop insurance is presented. The method includes formulae to capture the impact of crop insurance on the producer's expected income and variance of income. These impacts are evaluated in the context of a model of producer welfare which features both price and yield uncertainty, as well as risk aversion on the part of the producer. The method is applied to the Australian wheat industry and estimates of willingness-to-pay are shown to be relatively sensitive to the levels of coverage and yield variability.     

Area Yield Index Insurance or Farm Yield Crop Insurance? Chinese Perspectives on Farmers' Welfare and Government Subsidy Effectiveness

We evaluate the performance of area yield crop insurance (AYCI) and farm yield crop insurance (FYCI) using farm-level yield data from China, focusing on their effects on farmers' welfare, and their cost-effectiveness in terms of government subsidy. Given a subsidy rate sufficient to generate a politically acceptable participation level, the price advantage of AYCI may no longer offset its higher basis risk, and consequently FYCI may be preferred by farmers. From the government's perspective, AYCI is the cheapest option to maintain reasonable farmer participation in insurance, but is not necessarily the most cost-effective choice. Our findings suggest that, contrary to an assumption that informs many developing country agricultural insurance programmes, AYCI schemes are not necessarily preferred to FYCI. Decisions on the structure of a national agricultural insurance programme should be based on careful consideration of local conditions.     

Employment Dynamics and Linkages in the Rural Economy: Insights from Senegal

Evidence on rural wage employment is thin and lacks nuance for different employment sources, insights on dynamic effects, and an understanding of the channels of effects. We assess conceptually and empirically the direct and indirect welfare effects of entry and continuation in different types of wage employment in rural Senegal. Using panel data, fixed effects and first-difference estimation, we show substantial positive welfare and linkage effects. We find that participation in wage employment increases per capita income by 143%, and reduces poverty, poverty gap and food insecurity by, respectively, 63%, 89% and 48%. While the direct effect on income is larger for non-agricultural and contractual wage employment, the indirect income effects through self-employment are more pronounced for agricultural and casual wage employment. Our results imply that job creation is important for rural development, that wage employment in agriculture can lead to considerable growth multiplier effects, and that synergies exist between large-scale and small-scale agriculture.     

The effectiveness of weather index insurance in managing mariculture production risk

Mariculture is a high-risk industry that is susceptible to weather disasters. However, due to moral hazard, adverse selection and high transaction costs, traditional indemnity insurance policies are not available. An emerging alternative is the development of weather index mariculture insurance. This research assesses the effectiveness of weather index mariculture insurance by using the swimming crab precipitation index insurance as an example. The theoretical and empirical results suggest that weather index mariculture insurance is not always effective. It cannot be guaranteed to promote the welfare of mariculturists and reduce the tail risk of income, especially in the case of gross rates. However, in the case of low basis risk, it could be a viable option for the government because of the low subsidy cost required.     

我国洪水保险中的风险评价方法探讨

以洪灾风险模型、抗灾性能模型为基础,建立工程项目的毁损率与频率关系。对工程保险标的进行期望损失值计算与风险成本收益分析,以此为据对工程项目进行风险分级评价,形成较为系统的洪水保险风险分级评价方法。     

Crop Insurance as a Strategy for Adapting to Climate Change

Financial insurance for extreme events can play an important role in hedging against the implications of climate change. This paper combines a comprehensive estimation strategy and a unique panel dataset to study the role of financial insurance in farmers' welfare under uncertainty. Data are drawn from a large Italian farm panel dataset. We find that (i) demand for insurance products is likely to increase in response to climatic conditions, and (ii) that the use of insurance reduces the extent of risk exposure. We also find that farms growing more crops are less likely to adopt the insurance scheme. This confirms what is found in the theoretical literature. Crop diversification can be a substitute for financial insurance in hedging against the impact of risk exposure on welfare.     

Consistent Estimation of a Censored Demand System and Welfare Analysis: The 2012 VAT Reform in Spain

This paper analyses the effects that the 2012 VAT reform in Spain had on households’ welfare, focusing on a major expenditure group: food and non‐alcoholic beverages. Households’ demands are modeled as a two‐stage Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, which is then estimated by means of a consistent two‐step estimator introduced in Tauchmann ( 2010 ) and not previously used in studies of this type. This procedure allows consistent imposition of the traditional parameter restrictions that utility maximisation requires in the context of a censored model. Our results show that the welfare loss and the increment in the tax bill increase with income. We also show that expenditure on food and non‐alcoholic beverages grows less than proportionately with income. Consequently, households with lower income experience a greater welfare loss relative to their income levels. In short, the 2012 VAT reform in Spain, focusing on this expenditure group, can be considered as regressive.     

郁南县“信用工程”背景下小额信贷的扶贫绩效研究

小额信贷作为一种创新的金融服务工具,研究其绩效对我国金融改革和创新具有重要的作用。文章研究郁南县实施“信用工程”背景下小额信贷的扶贫绩效。通过问卷调查统计分析,我们发现小额信贷在一定程度上可以缓解农户贷款难问题,改善农户的生活水平,但效果不是很明显,“信用工程”还需要进一步推进。通过定量分析,我们得出结论是：总体上,小额贷款你能促进农民增收,但效果不是很显著;对于不同收入阶层,小额信贷的扶贫绩效对中低收入水平的农户不明显,但对高收入阶层的农户很显著。     

Land for welfare in China

Drawing on firsthand observations, Party and government documents, and survey data, this study examines the causes and processes of the land for welfare policy in China. The implementation of the land for welfare program cannot be understood in isolation from the profound urban–rural gap in the land property rights regime and social welfare provision in China. The dual land tenure system allows local officials to generate revenue by expropriating rural land, which, to rural households, functions as a social insurance as well as an income-generating property. In the process of land requisition, land-losing villagers are provided with social welfare benefits to compensate for their loss of their land's insurance function. Such provision, however, is not developed out of the local governments’ benign intention, but their strategic reaction to the central government's development program that combines rural social welfare provision with a land rewarding system, which provides an opportunity for local officials to gain more land, a valuable asset for local governments. The provision of social welfare benefits is selective: affected rural households are provided with welfare benefits that are less costly to the local government, typically in the form of a pension insurance.     

Structural Estimation of Rank-Order Tournament Games with Private Information

In this article we propose and solve a game-theoretic model of a rank-order tournament with private information. Using the contract settlement data from a poultry company, we estimate a fully structural model of a symmetric Nash equilibrium of this game. We show that growers' equilibrium effort depends on four factors: the spread in piece rates between the performance brackets, the number of players in each tournament, the number of performance brackets used, and the density of growers' private shocks. We use estimates to simulate how changes in the tournament characteristics affecting equilibrium effort impact the growers' and the integrator's welfare.     

A Study of the Sensitivity of Longevity-adjusted Income Measures

This paper aims to explore the sensitivity of longevity-adjusted measures of income, which have become increasingly popular as indicators of basic standards of living. For that purpose, longevity-adjusted income measures are computed for post-war Japan under various sets of postulates, concerning the temporal horizon regarded as relevant for the measurement of welfare, the ethical treatment of age structures, the degree of endogeneity of longevity, the value of a statistical life (VSL) used in the calibration of preference parameters, and preference parameters themselves (for a given VSL). Pictures of Japan's development are significantly sensitive to those postulates, suggesting that longevity-adjusted income measures should be computed under not one—as is usually done—but several assumption sets, to account for the difficulty of solving the income/longevity weighting problem. Hence, this study casts new light on the trade-offs raised by the aggregation of economic and demographic achievements into a preferences-based composite indicator.     

新型城镇化背景下郑州市新生代农民工城市定居意愿影响因素研究

[目的]当前,推进新型城镇化建设已经成为国家健康快速发展的紧要问题。李克强总理在2015年全国人大会议上作政府工作报告时提出"以人为本的新型城镇化",强调城镇化建设中人的核心地位,在人的因素中新生代农民工是推进新型城镇化的最重要力量,他们的居留意愿成为决定新型城镇化的现在与未来成败的关键因素。因此,研究新生代农民工城市定居的意愿特征以及影响因素就具有很强的现实意义。[方法]通过调查问卷和实地访谈的形式对郑州市新生代农民工进行调研,在以第一手资料为基础的提前下,运用随机森林模型,从个人因素、家庭因素、制度因素和社会文化等4个方面中的24个因素实证分析影响郑州市新生代农民工留城意愿的特征和因素。[结果]影响新生代农民工留城意愿最显著的要素依次是从事职业类型、在城市工作时间、个人收入、家庭收入因素、是否参加城镇养老保险和是否享受城镇住房公积金。[结论]文章有针对性地提出发展教育、增加家庭收入和改善社会福利等解决问题的措施。     

风险区划下棉花“保险+期货”定价与运行机制分析——以山东省为例

目的 棉花“保险＋期货”模式的出台对保障棉农收入起着至关重要的作用,但随着地区差异性增强、生产成本上升、目标价格统一不变等问题的出现导致该模式的作用有所减弱。方法 文章基于2021—2022年棉花期现货价格数据,运用蒙特卡洛模拟法计算统一费率,运用熵值法对各地级市棉花价格风险进行综合评价,并运用聚类分析法对棉花种植区域进行风险区划。结果 （1）棉花价格风险主要集中于鲁西北和鲁西南地区,专业化程度是产生价格风险的主要原因;（2）修正目标价格和保险费率后,高风险区和次高风险区目标价格高于全省平均水平,保险费率增长速度随保障水平提高而降低;（3）通过构建期货市场、现货市场与保险公司的信息联动机制,拓宽了信息交流的渠道。结论 为更好地发挥“保险+期货”保障农民收入的作用,提出针对不同风险区域,实施精细化产品设计;多方主体相互配合,减轻地方政府保费压力两点建议。     

农产品价格波动对政策性农业保险的影响研究——基于主体博弈模型

政策性农业保险作为中国发展三农事业的重要措施,因其独特的风险属性和潜在的利益冲突受到学术界的关注。本文基于主体博弈模型,引入农产品价格波动因素,分析农产品价格波动如何对政策性农业保险主体行为产生影响。研究发现:引入农产品价格波动变量使政策性农业保险主体博弈均衡象限发生了变化;政府补贴为农户和保险公司应对农产品价格波动提供了重要保障。基于2007—2017年政策性农业保险省级面板数据,建立PVAR模型实证判别农产品价格波动对政策性农业保险的影响。研究发现:农产品价格波动对政策性农业保险需求存在促进作用,对农户增收短期内有负向冲击,而未来3—6期则将产生正向效应;农产品价格波动、农户收入与政策性农业保险需求存在动态交互效应。本文的研究结论,能够为防范农产品价格风险和发展政策性农业保险提供科学依据和数据支持。     

Do People Value The Welfare Of Farm Animals?

Public concern over farm animal welfare has led to the banning of a number of intensive farming methods such as sow stalls, battery cages (by 2012) and veal crates, and the development of high welfare status products sold at a price premium. This indicates that consumers value farm animal welfare. In addition satisfaction can also be derived, by consumers and non‐consumers of animal products, from the knowledge that all animals are experiencing welfare‐enhancing husbandry practices. Consequently farm animal welfare can be considered a complex good, sought partly for private consumption and as a public good. However, improving the welfare of all farm animals through legislation incurs costs ‐ are these increased costs of food production justified? We use contingent valuation to determine the economic value of improving the welfare of farm animals and find that people are willing to pay extra on their weekly food bill to ensure that laying hens, broiler chickens dairy cows and pigs have improved welfare conditions. The benefits of improving animal welfare are shown to exceed the costs of implementing these schemes. We conclude that improving the standards of legislation for farm animal welfare so that all farm animals experience higher standards of welfare can be economically justified.     

Economic welfare analysis of policy-induced structural change in the Indonesian poultry industry

The performance of the poultry industry in Indonesia is analyzed in terms of changes in producer and consumer welfare as a result of public policy intended to limit the size of production units in order to distribute growth opportunities to smallet farms. Elasticities of supply and demand are estimated using the seemingly unrelated system of equations. The hypothesis of a policy-induced structural change, estimated through a dummy variable accounting for a shift in supply associated with implementation of the policy, shows a negative impact on the output supplied and the welfare of producers and consumers to the tune of about Rp 94 billion or roughly about 0.1% of national income as of 1983. The study suggests an important trade-off between more equitable income distribution and economic efficiency.     

内蒙古自治区森林保险优化策略

内蒙古自治区森林保险自2013年正式启动试点工作以来,虽然森林保险的覆盖率稳步增长,但仍存在森林保险发展极不均衡、商品林参保所占比例偏低、保险产品尚难以满足灾害恢复需要、部分市县配套保费补贴压力过大、现行招标模式未能形成有效市场竞争等问题,这些问题严重制约内蒙古自治区森林保险的发展。为了促进内蒙古自治区森林保险高质量发展,必须丰富和创新保险产品,提高商品林参保意愿;提升灾害风险区划和费率厘定的科学性;调整保费补贴标准,减轻地方财政压力;优化完善招标机制,提高保险服务质量。