人民币汇率调整对我国产业结构的影响

长期实施汇率低估以及固定汇率制度使我国的经济结构遭到扭曲,产业结构不能得到优化,产业结构升级受到抑制.人民币汇率制度实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。汇率的形成机制逐渐得到完善,而且能够使我国经济结构进行有序调整,使我国的产业结构得到优化升级。     

汇率波动影响产业结构的传递效应与风险暴露机制

价格传递效应和汇率风险暴露是汇率波动影响产业结构的主要传导机制,国内相关研究起步较晚,而国外已经进行了系统的研究。本文从价格传递效应的存在性、价格传递效应的大小、价格传递效应的下降趋势和价格传递效应的非对称性和汇率风险暴露的存在性、产业间汇率风险暴露的差异性、汇率风险暴露的同期与滞后等几个方面对相关研究进行了系统的梳理和归纳,以供国内学者参考。     

经济全球化背景下中国产业结构的战略性调整

进入21世纪,经济全球化进程日趋加快,同时中国在2001年加入WTO已成定局.作为经济结构战略性调整的关键和重点--中国产业结构演进和调整的方向如何适应经济全球化趋势,在参与国际分工和国际竞争中谋求更大的发展空间和达到可持续发展,这已成为一个既十分紧迫又极具挑战性的重大问题.     

对我国产业结构及其调整的几点思考

我国产业结构的发展存在着诸多的缺陷,其成因是多方面的。我们必须明确近期内经济发展和产业结构演变的总趋势以及产业结构调整的基本要求或基木目标,并采取若干相应的措施,加快产业结构调整目标的实现。     

京津冀税收负担与产业结构调整效应

京津冀协同发展战略顺利实施的关键之一是实现区域产业结构的有效对接、调整和优化。差别的产业税收负担及结构是影响区域产业结构调整的重要因素。通过对2003—2014年京津冀产业税收负担对产业结构调整效应的研究,分析区域产业税收负担的产业结构调整效应,并提出了相关的政策建议:统一区域税收优惠政策,进行合理倾斜;营造公平税收环境,建立健全税收协作体系;扩大对战略性新兴产业、高新技术产业的税收优惠。     

加快中国出口产业结构调整的途径

改革、开放以来,我国外贸增长迅速,按出口贸易额已占世界第11位,出口产品结构也得到了初步的优化,完成了由主要出口初级产品向主要出口工业制成品的转变,这是一个很大的进步。但是,应该看到,我国现在出口产业结构还是比较落后的,档次是比较低的,特别是缺乏拳头出口产品,如果不采取有力措施调整出口产业结构,出口增长就会缺乏后劲,到本世纪末达到出口2000亿美元的目标就难以实现,同时还会对我国产业结构发生不利影响。     

汇率波动的宏观经济效应分析

2005年中国实行有管理的浮动汇率制度以来,人民币对美元汇率累计升值30％以上,波动性也在不断增大。中国共产党十八次代表大会提出要加快汇率的自由化改革步伐,人民币汇率的波动性将进一步增加,而这将给宏观经济平稳运行产生重要影响。本文从通货膨胀、收入水平和就业三个方面分析汇率波动对经济的影响。     

汇率调整对中国对外贸易及引进外资的影响

中国的汇率调整已经成为一个不争的事实,汇率调整必定对中国经济产生重大影响。本文主要探讨汇率调整对中国对外贸易及引进外资的影响。     

对中国农村产业结构调整的思考

我国农业在国民经济中的比重不断下降,农民收入增长幅度持续下降,重要原因是农村产业结构不合理,农业总供给突出表现为结构性过剩。农村产业结构调整应遵循农村产业间协调发展、充分利用比较优势以及树立农村产业是产业中重要链条的产业整体观等原则,并要结合我国的实际情况,采取优化农业产业结构的途径,从而达到发展农村经济的目的。     

金融创新对经济增长的影响研究——基于产业结构调整的中介效应分析

本文选取2008年～2019年我国31个省份的面板数据为样本,测度金融创新及经济增长。在中介效应模型框架下,研究金融创新、产业结构调整以及经济增长之间的关系,并分析金融创新对产业结构的影响,以及金融创新对经济增长的影响。研究表明：金融创新对产业结构调整和经济增长都产生了显著的促进作用;金融创新促进经济增长,并验证了金融创新在促进经济增长的过程中存在中介效应。     

Sectoral adjustment costs and real exchange rate dynamics in a two-sector dependent economy

This paper develops a two-sector model in which intersectoral capital movements involve adjustment costs, expressed as capital lost in the transformation process. These costs have important consequences for the dynamics of capital accumulation and particularly for real exchange rate dynamics. Persistent deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium are derived and for plausible values of the adjustment cost parameters are consistent with the observed degree of real exchange rate persistence. For low adjustment costs the dynamics are qualitatively similar to those of the standard Heckscher-Ohlin technology. For high adjustment costs, the model converges to the specific-factors model. Thus our framework includes these two standard models as polar extremes.     

External adjustment in oil exporters: The role of fiscal policy and the exchange rate

After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression analysis of the determinants of the current account balance and of the trade balance. The results show little or no relationship with the exchange rate and, especially for the less diversified oil exporters, a strong relationship with the fiscal balance or government spending.     

财税政策对产业结构调整动态冲击效应的实证分析

本文通过测算出我国1980-2009年产业结构系数,以政府支出、税收、产业结构系数为变量,运用VAR模型分析政府支出和税收对产业结构的动态冲击效应,得出结论:政府投资支出和税收对产业结构的变动有影响,而且这种影响具有滞后性;产业结构的变动有25%的贡献度由政府投资支出和税收来解释。     

谈人民币汇率制度改革对周边国家汇率的影响

本文采用时间序列分析方法对人民币汇改前后美元兑日元、美元兑港币两种货币汇率收益率序列进行建模,研究它们的风险变化规律。研究结果表明,美元兑日元,美元兑港币汇率变化的风险评估中,所建模型很好的体现了人民币汇改这一事件的影响,通过对比分析其条件方差序列,进行两种汇率的风险评估。风险评估结果显示人民币升值这一事件对美元/日元、美元/港币汇率的影响较小,风险水平变化不大。     

人民币汇率变动对福建出口贸易结构的影响分析

文章采用1985-2010年人民币实际有效汇率和福建省FDI及出口贸易结构的年度数据进行协整分析,结果表明,福建省出口贸易结构与人民币实际有效汇率之间存在长期的稳定的均衡关系,人民币汇率稳步升值将有利于我国贸易结构的优化升级。     

Chaos and the exchange rate

Chaotic exchange rate models are structural models built in discrete time (difference equations), and show that with orthodox assumptions (PPP, interest parity, etc) and introducing plausible nonlinearities in the dynamic equations, it is possible to obtain a model capable of giving rise to chaotic motion. However, none of these models is estimated, and the conclusions are based on simulations: the empirical validity of these models is not tested. In this paper, a continuous time (the exchange rate is obviously a continuous variable) exchange rate model is built as a non-linear set of three differential equations and its theoretical properties (steady state, stability, etc,) analysed. The model is then econometrically estimated in continuous time with Italian data and examined for the possible presence of chaotic motion. This paper also shows that the continuous time estimation of economic models built as systems of nonlinear differential equations is a very powerful tool in the hands of the profession.     

Robustness and exchange rate volatility

This paper studies exchange rate volatility within the context of the monetary model of exchange rates. We assume that agents regard this model as merely a benchmark, or reference model, and attempt to construct forecasts that are robust to model misspecification. We show that revisions of robust forecasts are more volatile than revisions of nonrobust forecasts, and that empirically plausible concerns for model misspecification can explain observed exchange rate volatility. We also briefly discuss the implications of robust forecasts for a number of other exchange rate puzzles.     

Real exchange rate (RER) as a policy tool for industrial diversification and growth in Africa

Appropriate exchange rate (ER) policies in some Asian and Latin American countries have led to improvement in industrial diversification and growth. The growth ‘miracle’ of the Asian countries centres on the effective use of ER and trade policies, specifically the adoption of depreciation of real exchange rate (RER). However, the case of Africa is different, as the continent is yet to adopt an appropriate ER policy that enhances industrial diversification and growth. Examining the effectiveness of the RER as a policy tool for industrial diversification and growth in 36 African countries, this study applied a dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique to determine how changes in RER affects the growth composition of the three main productive sectors – primary, secondary, and tertiary and their response rates. Our findings suggest that the primary sector leads to appreciation of the RER, while the secondary and tertiary lead to depreciation of the RER. This result has serious policy implication for the Africa continent that has relied so much on the production of primary commodities. Rather than pursue the policy of ER depreciation which affects the primary and secondary sectors, policy shift in favour of the tertiary sector should be highly encouraged.