基于复杂系统理论的自适应供应链系统研究

供应链管理作为企业在复杂竞争环境中创造核心竞争能力的一种行为,具有结构、环境、行为等方面的动态、开放、突现等非线性特点,是典型的复杂系统。在分析供应链复杂性基础上提出了供应链适应能力的概念,并对供应链适应能力的驱动力进行分析,基于复杂系统理论建立了自适应供应链系统模型,以期为供应链企业的策略调整提供一种动态的方法。     

供应链系统自组织自适应过程与决策模型描述

供应链作为一个复杂系统,在演化过程中表现出大量的自组织与自适应现象。在系统科学关于自组织和复杂自适应(CAS)的原理基础上,研究了供应链系统演化过程中的自组织与自适应行为,并对供应链系统决策的相似性机理给出模型描述。     

基于复杂自适应供应网络脆弱性的突发风险研究

本文将全球化背景下的供应链系统视为复杂自适应供应网络,以复杂自适应供应网络脆弱性分析为视角,对当前供应链突发风险管理这个热点问题展开了研究,采用微观与宏观相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法对突发风险进行了分析,建立了突发事件条件下复杂自适应供应网络的脆弱性评价模型,并结合具体实例进行了验证。结果表明,供应链突发风险管理策略应该尽可能使得供应链各子系统脆弱性以及子系统各脆弱性因素之间的相互影响保持均衡,不存在相对脆弱的短板。这为企业从全局考虑改善供应链系统性能提供了的最佳途径。     

基于CAS理论的供应链系统分析

以复杂自适应系统（Complex Adaptive System,CAS）理论为基础，对供应链进行了一个全新的分析，并给出了一个基于此的供应链系统概念；利用CAS理论中的七个概念和供应链系统的对比分析，指出了实践中供应链管理存在的一些误区，并给出了一定的宏观、微观的政策指导和建议。     

基于反馈控制的多级供应链分布式决策支持系统

以复杂供应链为研究对象,提出了基于供应链自适应反馈控制模型的多级供应链成员行为与决策的动态协调机制,进而提出了供应链的分布式决策支持系统体系结构,使得各成员企业按照各自的行为特性进行的自主(自发)决策在供应链层级的行为协调机制作用下,最终实现供应链系统对外部环境(包括终端市场)信息及其变化的实时、最优反应,不仅使系统具有高度的敏捷性和稳定性,而且能够使所有成员的利益得到保障和提升,使系统效率达到最大化。     

供应链管理系统的复杂性分析

供应链管理系统是由许多目标相互关联和相互冲突的成员和组织构成的复杂网络系统,每个节点企业从自身利益出发所进行的局部寻优决策行为都会引起系统节点企业之间的目标冲突,使整个系统出现复杂的动态演化行为。文章介绍了供应链管理系统复杂性研究的相关概念、定义、及供应链管理中的复杂性现象与问题,并论述了复杂性研究对于供应链管理理论发展的意义。     

基于Agent的供应链复杂系统研究

针对供应链具有不确定性和随机性的动态复杂系统,运用Agent这种崭新的技术对供应链管理复杂适应系统建模,确定供应链中各Agent的行为规则,给出了Agent的Petri网交互模型。从宏观层面描述不同节点企业之间的交互作用,通过资源流将各企业连接起来。     

浅论企业供应链成本管理的问题与对策

我国供应链成本管理主要存在供应链成本控制观念薄弱、供应链节点企业尚未形成协同合作的一体化机制、供应链合作伙伴之间缺乏必要的信任、供应链管理环节容易出现信息失真和供应链节点企业缺乏合理的绩效与激励措施等问题。这些问题的解决,需要在供应链节点企业中,培养成本控制的文化意识,建立横向一体化机制、信任与合作机制、信息共享机制、绩效考核与激励机制等措施。     

浅论企业供应链成本管理的问题与对策

我国供应链成本管理主要存在供应链成本控制观念薄弱、供应链节点企业尚未形成协同合作的一体化机制、供应链合作伙伴之间缺乏必要的信任、供应链管理环节容易出现信息失真和供应链节点企业缺乏合理的绩效与激励措施等问题。这些问题的解决,需要在供应链节点企业中,培养成本控制的文化意识,建立横向一体化机制、信任与合作机制、信息共享机制、绩效考核与激励机制等措施。     

基于Agent的供应链复杂系统研究

针对供应链具有不确定性和随机性的动态复杂系统,运用Agent这种崭新的技术对供应链管理复杂适应系统建模,确定供应链中各Agent的行为规则,给出了Agent的Petri网交互模型.从宏观层面描述不同节点企业之间的交互作用,通过资源流将各企业连接起来.     

Analysis of high dimensional multivariate stochastic volatility models

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation and comparison of flexible, high dimensional multivariate time series models with time varying correlations. The model proposed and considered here combines features of the classical factor model with that of the heavy tailed univariate stochastic volatility model. A unified analysis of the model, and its special cases, is developed that encompasses estimation, filtering and model choice. The centerpieces of the estimation algorithm (which relies on MCMC methods) are: (1) a reduced blocking scheme for sampling the free elements of the loading matrix and the factors and (2) a special method for sampling the parameters of the univariate SV process. The resulting algorithm is scalable in terms of series and factors and simulation-efficient. Methods for estimating the log-likelihood function and the filtered values of the time-varying volatilities and correlations are also provided. The performance and effectiveness of the inferential methods are extensively tested using simulated data where models up to 50 dimensions and 688 parameters are fit and studied. The performance of our model, in relation to various multivariate GARCH models, is also evaluated using a real data set of weekly returns on a set of 10 international stock indices. We consider the performance along two dimensions: the ability to correctly estimate the conditional covariance matrix of future returns and the unconditional and conditional coverage of the 5% and 1% value-at-risk (VaR) measures of four pre-defined portfolios.     

The Geography of Innovation in China and India

The BRICS countries in general, and China and India in particular, are now widely regarded as the areas of the world likely to challenge the economic leadership of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). A large part of this challenge will come from rapid technological catch‐up by China and India. Yet, despite a recent rise in interest, there is limited knowledge about how and where innovation takes place in these two leading emerging countries and to what extent the Chinese and Indian territorial systems of innovation differ from those in the EU or the US. In this article we explore the geography of innovation in China and India, concentrating on understanding key territorial‐level innovation trends by country, region and technology field, using the US and the EU as benchmarks. We find significant contrasts between the geography of innovation in China and India and that of the US and the EU. First, the degree of concentration of innovative activities in both countries is extremely high. Levels of agglomeration of innovation in the coastal provinces of China, as well as in Delhi and the South of India, significantly exceed the levels of agglomeration found in the USA and the EU. Secondly, China has witnessed a more rapid increase in the degree of concentration of innovation than India. We posit that the differences in the geography of innovation between, on the one hand, China and India and, on the other hand, between these countries and the developed world are rooted in different institutional settings, different systems of innovation and different national innovation strategies.     

RIP与OSPF协议在中小型网络中的性能研究

论文从网络的拓扑结构与网络设备的性能指标入手,从rip协议与OSPF协议在中小型网络中的运行机理与算法入手,通过分析协议在网络中的稳定性、传输性能等综合性能标,研究了rip协议与OSPF协议的具体算法,最后综合网络设备的性能指标与网络的拓扑结构得出两种协议的最佳匹配网络匹配环境。     

Towards a Theory of Serendipity: A Systematic Review and Conceptualization

Serendipity – the notion of making surprising and valuable discoveries – plays a major role in the success of individuals and organizations alike. Previous research has established the importance of serendipity and identified important individual- and organizational-level antecedents. However, the literature has been dispersed and the boundaries of the concept have been blurry, leading to a lack of conceptual clarity and structure, and thus limiting validity and managerial actionability. Based on a systematic literature review, I synthesize existing management-related research on serendipity and explicate the emergence and composition of serendipity in the organizational context. I first identify three necessary conditions that differentiate serendipity from related concepts such as luck or targeted innovation: agency, surprise, and value. Then, I draw from the literature on sensemaking, event-based theorizing, and quantum-based approaches to management to conceptualize the process of cultivating serendipity in the organizational context as a process of enabling potentiality and materialization, and develop a multi-level theory of (cultivating) serendipity. This conceptualization contributes to our collective understanding of how, why, and when (i.e., under what conditions) organizations can leverage the value in the unexpected, which opens up fruitful avenues for further research.     

马克思、恩格斯生态经济思想及其对生态环境法治观的启示

马克思、恩格斯具有丰富的生态经济思想,其中主要包括:自然资源是人类生存发展前提和财富源泉、尊重自然规律和合理调节"物质变换"以及"两个和解"的思想,等等。马克思、恩格斯生态经济思想,为人类走向生态文明奠定了深厚的思想渊源和理念基础,同时对确立科学的生态环境法治观具有重大启示。     

浅谈如何加强水电科技资料管理和保密工作

文章对水电科技资料管理和保密工作的重要性进行了论述,并从内部管理的实际情况出发,分析了如何加强科技管理及科技档案的保密工作,对建立内部管理制度、加强内部控制提出了对策。     

Bourdieu Comes to Town: Pertinence,Principles, Applications

This article frames the themes of the two‐part Interventions section ‘Bourdieu Comes to Town’. I first establish the pertinence of Bourdieu's sociology for students of the city by revisiting his youthful work on power, space, and the diffusion of urban forms in provincial Béarn and colonial Algeria. In both cases, urbanization is the key vector of transformation, and the city, town, or camp the site anchoring the forces dissolving the social fabric of the French countryside and overturning French imperialism in North Africa. These early studies establish that all social and mental structures have spatial correlates and conditions of possibility; that social distance and power relations are both expressed in and reinforced by spatial distance; and that propinquity to the center of accumulation of capital (economic, military, or cultural) is a key determinant of the force and velocity of social change. Next, I discuss four principles that undergird Bourdieu's investigations and can profitably drive urban inquiry: the Bachelardian moment of epistemological rupture, the Weberian invitation to historicize the agent (habitus), the world (social space) and the categories of the analyst (epistemic reflexivity); the Leibnizian‐Durkheimian imperative to deploy the topological mode of reasoning; and Cassirer's command to heed the constitutive efficacy of symbolic structures. The plasticity and productivity of his concepts suggest that Bourdieu can not only energize urban inquiry but also merge it into a broader analytic of the trialectic of symbolic division, social space, and the built environment. This paves a pathway for reconceptualizing the urban as the domain of accumulation, differentiation and contestation of manifold forms of capital, which makes the city a central ground, product, and prize of historical struggles.     

关于城市本质的理论探索

文章界定了城市的本质定义.提出了城市本质构成的三大基础理论:人性理论、需要理论、环境理论;阐述了认识城市本质的理论意义和现实意义.文章认为,城市本质体现了人本主义思想,体现了人在城市发展中主导作用和不可推卸的历史使命.正确认识城市本质,将为我国科学制定城市发展战略和城市规划,合理有效地经营、建设和管理城市提供科学的理论依据.     

论宣传报道在交通运输改革和发展中的重要作用

加强交通运输宣传报道工作,是促进交通运输行业又好又快发展的有效手段和重要途径。文章结合广西交通运输新闻宣传工作实际,分析宣传报道对交通运输发展的影响,探讨宣传报道在交通运输改革和发展中的重要作用。     

WHAT'S TO KNOW ABOUT THE CREDIBILITY OF EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS?

The scientific credibility of economics is itself a scientific question that can be addressed with both theoretical speculations and empirical data. In this review, we examine the major parameters that are expected to affect the credibility of empirical economics: sample size, magnitude of pursued effects, number and pre‐selection of tested relationships, flexibility and lack of standardization in designs, definitions, outcomes and analyses, financial and other interests and prejudices, and the multiplicity and fragmentation of efforts. We summarize and discuss the empirical evidence on the lack of a robust reproducibility culture in economics and business research, the prevalence of potential publication and other selective reporting biases, and other failures and biases in the market of scientific information. Overall, the credibility of the economics literature is likely to be modest or even low.