对外贸易、经济增长与趋同发展——基于东盟国家1990～2009年面板数据的实证研究

本文集中研究东盟国家贸易发展、经济增长与趋同问题,并对1990～2009年间东盟国家贸易发展指标对经济增长和经济趋同的作用和影响进行实证检验。我们得出结论:在促进经济增长方面,东盟国家致力于发展外向型经济、放松管制以及AFTA等制度安排是有效的;而在推动东盟国家经济发展趋同、缩小成员国收入水平差距方面,目前东盟各国的贸易发展政策和实践却没有显示出显著的积极效应。文章首先介绍了东盟国家贸易发展的基本情况;其次分析东盟各国经济增长和发展水平及存在的差距;再次就贸易发展指标与经济增长、收入差距之间的关系进行实证检验,分析其原因;最后进行总结,并就东盟贸易和经济发展以及对世界经济的影响等问题提了几点看法。     

"东盟共同体"建设面临的挑战与前景

东南亚是一个多样性、发展的不平衡性十分突出的地区。东盟要在这样的地区建立一个以经济合作、政治-安全合作和社会文化合作为核心的"东盟共同体",无疑面临着巨大困难。本文认为:东盟的共同体建设是"在多样化中求统一",尽管面临着许多困难和矛盾,但各国之间合作发展的"统一性"是存在的。     

ICT and economic development: comparing ASEAN member states

The impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on economic performance has been an interesting issue in economics. There are at least three key points that can be learnt from the previous literatures regarding ICT and country’s economic performance. First, more developed countries are expected to benefit greater than less developed countries. Second, the impact of ICT will depend on the intensity of ICT utilization. Third, the size and structure of ICT sector of country’s economy does matter. The main contribution of this paper is to evaluate those three points by conducting comparative analysis based on Input–output (I-O) Table from four ASEAN Member States, namely Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. ASEAN is used because it is one of the regional associations that have a large income gap among its members. The results suggest that more developed countries (which are measured by income per capita) do not always benefit greater than less developed countries from ICT development. The magnitude of ICT impact on the economy depends on the intensity of ICT utilization and the structure of ICT sector.     

中国-东盟FTA贸易效应实证研究

中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的成立对中国和东盟国家具有重要的经济与政治意义。本文利用一个扩展后的引力模型对CAFTA的贸易效应进行了实证分析。结果显示:CAFTA对区内贸易具有显著扩大效应的同时也显著地促进了与非成员之间的贸易;CAFTA符合"自然的贸易伙伴"的事前贸易关系紧密和空间距离接近标准;同时,CAFTA成员间产品出口结构以互补性为主;进一步降低成员间贸易壁垒、加强贸易合作对CAFTA成员间和世界贸易的扩大具有积极意义。     

The ASEAN Free Trade Area: the search for a common prosperity

During the 1992 ASEAN Summit Meeting, a historic decision was made to create an ASEAN Free Trade area over the next fifteen years. This was a milestone in economic co-operation within ASEAN. Global political and economic developments as well as factors internal to ASEAN made this decision possible. The task of expeditious implementation of AFTA poses major challenges, but AFTA itself augurs well for regional competitiveness.     

中国与东盟产业内贸易结构现状研究

20世纪90年代至今,经济全球化与区域化迅速发展,各国在生产、分配、消费等领域的经济联系日益密切,不例外的,中国与东盟的经贸关系发展十分迅速。本文针对中国与东盟之间贸易结构多元化问题展开研究,发现中国与东盟之间呈现以产业内贸易为主的现状。     

Trade facilitation in ASEAN countries: harmonisation of logistics policies

This paper studies the effectiveness of the implementation of trade facilitation measures in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We evaluate trade facilitation performance and indicate trade facilitation needs and priorities that vary between ASEAN members. In particular, we examine logistics‐related costs in ASEAN and whether the current level of logistics‐related costs could be a burden or an advantage for ASEAN countries. We also identify critical barriers that have impacts on logistics services related to foreign investment and customs across ASEAN. Finally, we propose recommendations for the harmonisation of logistics policies in ASEAN countries aimed at the development of the ASEAN Economic Community.     

深圳与东盟经济合作中存在的问题及对策

随着中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立和发展,深圳与东盟之间的经贸关系发展十分迅速。近几年来,深圳与东盟贸易额保持了年均30%以上的增长速度,东盟已经成为深圳的第四大出口市场,深圳在发展与东盟国家多边贸易关系中一直走在全国前列,深圳实际上已成为中国大陆面向东盟各国的一个窗口,但在深圳与东盟经济合作中还存在一些问题,本文针对这些存在问题提出了相应的对策建议。     

Prospects for ASEAN-China Free Trade Area： A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN- China Free Trade Area （.4 CFTA）, which is set to come into effect around 2010..4CFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors： ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether,4CFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding A CFTA ＇s prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China.     

The ASEAN investment area,other FDI initiatives,and intra‐ASEAN foreign direct investment

The idea of establishing ASEAN as a single market and production base that will make ASEAN a dynamic and competitive location requires, among others, the free flow of investment. As part of the effort to promote regional investment, particularly intra‐ASEAN investment, several schemes have been implemented such as the 1998 Framework Agreement on the ASEAN Investment Area (AIA). This study investigated the impact of the AIA and other foreign direct investment (FDI) initiatives on intra‐ASEAN FDI. The findings on the impact of the AIA, measured via several proxies, do not provide strong evidence of benefits from the AIA, or from other investment‐promoting initiatives. With equal treatment given to non‐ASEAN investors, ASEAN members may have to provide separate incentives to enhance local entrepreneurs' competitiveness, which should in the long run be translated into higher FDI from ASEAN—either to other ASEAN members or to non‐ASEAN countries. Overall, the results do not argue wholly against the idea of the AIA, given that some of the AIA proxies have a significant impact. Moreover, it is early days yet, and a larger impact may come with time.     

2011-2012年东盟经济的分析与预测

2011年东盟国家经济保持复苏的态势。随着欧元区主权债务危机的蔓延,世界经济增长趋于放缓,东盟国家的经济增长也呈现出减缓的趋势。为应对国内经济的下滑,一些国家开始逐步调整宏观经济政策的方向。同时东盟区域经济一体化取得新的进展。在新的国内外经济形势下,2012年东盟国家经济发展将面临新的挑战,这将考验各国政府的宏观调控能力。     

ASEAN FTA,distribution of income,and globalization

This paper examines the impact of Free Trade Agreements on income distribution within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and between the members and their trading partners outside ASEAN. The study uses a Computable General Equilibrium model, a modified version of the 57 sector, 87 country, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) integrated model of national input–output tables, version-6.2 (2001 database) with its reserve matrix facility, to simulate income distribution results as an outcome of certain parameter changes that appear in intra and inter regional trade.Within ASEAN, trade liberalization will stimulate the output of each country within the region according to their comparative advantage. Since trade liberalization tends to increase output of capital-intensive goods more than labor-intensive goods, the less-developed countries within the region tend to get smaller benefits compared to other member countries. In addition, the physical means of production tend to gain more relative to the gains of labor from the FTAs. This tends to widen the income gap between high-income and low-income households within ASEAN.Comparing ASEAN and the developed non-ASEAN countries, an FTA within ASEAN tends to reduce the returns to labor of the developed non-member countries and narrow the income gap between ASEAN, as a whole, and those rich countries since capital-intensive products of developing countries are often labor-intensive goods of developed countries.     

Analysis of Brexit and its policy lessons for Asian integration

Galvanised by the devastation of the Second World War, European countries achieved a historically unprecedented and unparalleled level of regional economic integration in the post-war period. Intensive cooperation between the two biggest powers of continental Western Europe, France and Germany, lay at the core of Europe's seemingly relentless momentum towards integration, crystallised by the European Union (EU). The Franco-German alliance also provided strong eadership and sense of direction for the EU, which gained further traction with the admission of Central and Eastern European states after the fall of communism and the establishment of a monetary union among many of its members. However, more recently, the European integration process no longer seems unstoppable or inevitable. Most shockingly, the United Kingdom, a core EU member and the EU's third largest economy, has opted to leave the union, triggering the ‘Brexit’ process. Nor is Brexit the only sign of growing fractures within the EU. The current standoff between the EU and Italy over Italy's unwillingness to rein in its fiscal deficit is just one additional example of the loss of momentum. The central objective of the paper is to examine EU's past successes and current problems from the perspective of Asian countries, in particular ASEAN+3 countries that have achieved some measure of integration, although well below that of the EU. Both past successes and current problems hold valuable lessons for ASEAN+3 countries as they chart their own course towards regional integration. Given that the level of integration among ASEAN+3 is much lower than that of the EU, it would be unwise to draw lessons, positive or negative, without the proper context. Nevertheless, the European experience can provide valuable insights for Asia's integration process.     

金融危机前后东盟十国的经济趋同分析

站在区域经济一体化的角度,东盟目前的层次属于较低级的自由贸易区,发展的方向是要要建立经济共同体。而这一努力方向的障碍之一就是东盟10个成员国的发展水平参差不齐,差距十分明显,因此如何缩小成员国之间的差距是东盟现在迫切需要解决的问题。本文从σ趋同、绝对β趋同和俱乐部趋同三个方面对东盟整体及各个分组经济增长的差异性进行全面分析,客观地判断了当前东盟各国的经济趋同、趋异性,为东盟一体化发展战略的研究提供了全面的实证基础依据。     

从福建与东盟经贸合作看城市化水平问题——以福建省为例的实证分析

由于福建省特殊的地缘优势,使东盟国家成为闽籍华人的主要聚居地,福建在拓展东盟经贸合作方面处于有利的位置,也因此成为中国和东南亚国家发展友好关系的桥梁。福建省应该以建设海峡西岸经济区为依托,运用与东盟经济具有较强互补性的特点,开拓东盟市场,发展外向型经济,从而促进经济增长。然而,福建在中国—东盟自由贸易区建设中有着巨大机遇的同时也面临着挑战,城市化水平问题显得格外突出和严峻。     

Determinants of migration from ASEAN‐3 into Malaysia

Migration theory advances several reasons for migration, which can be categorised into two groups: push factors and pull factors. Push factors include the economic performance of the emigrating country, whereas the pull factors include performance in the destination country. The latter include gross domestic product, job creation, the unemployment rate, education level, and wage rate. This paper examines the determinants of immigration from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)‐3, namely Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, into Malaysia. The analysis is based on panel data of 1990–2008 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach. The results show that the main determinants of this migration flow are the real wage ratio among the ASEAN‐3 and Malaysia, the unemployment rate in the source countries, and the real exchange rate ratio between the ASEAN‐3 and Malaysia.     

EU Anti‐dumping Measures against ASEAN Countries: Impact on Trade Flows*

In the present paper, anti‐dumping (AD) duties levied by the European Commission against products from ASEAN countries in the period 1991–2001 have been considered. The ASEAN countries were among the countries most targeted by AD measures imposed by the EU in the 1990s. A panel regression has been applied to estimate the impact of AD duties on trade in some 12 products that have been subject to AD duties targeting ASEAN countries in the period considered. A significant negative impact of AD duties is found, on both the value and the quantity of imports from ASEAN countries. Our estimation provides some (although not overwhelming) indications of trade diversion in favor of EU countries, but no evidence of trade diversion in favor of non‐targeted non‐EU countries.     

中国与东盟10国税收协调之探析

在CAFTA域内各国商品、人员、服务、资本四大要素的自由流动日益增大、互利合作日趋紧密的背景下,本文针对中国与东盟10国现行税制及其如何在四大要素自由流动过程中发挥促进作用的税收协调问题进行了探讨和分析。本文认为,现阶段中国与东盟10国应采取关税协调、改革现行税制和加强国际税收合作并行的方式;在关税协调完成之后,应以税收论坛、完善国内税制和加强国际税收合作并行的方式,促进CAFTA域内各国四大要素的自由流动。     

2015年东盟经济共同体:发展进程、机遇与存在的问题

2015年建成的东盟共同体将主要由政治安全共同体、经济共同体和社会文化共同体三大部分组成。迄今,东盟经济共同体推进势头良好,其发展无疑对中国的"走出去"战略是一个新的机遇。随着形势的发展,中国与东盟的经济合作将越来越广泛和深入。本文分析了东盟经济共同体的发展态势,认为在未来3年里建立一个具有雏形意义的经济共同体是可能的,它将从自由贸易区的升级版开始,即在贸易关税削减为零的基础上,形成货物、服务、投资和技术工人的较低程度的自由流动,并最终形成单一市场和生产基地。东盟经济共同体的成功之路除了需要处理好与10+3和10+1的关系、与"环太平洋经济伙伴关系协定"(TPP)的关系,与APEC的关系这三对矛盾外,还取决于缩小富国和穷国的差距、实现单一的大市场和产品基地、培育东盟共同的价值观、增强东盟共同体的认同感等。