金融危机:一种政治哲学的解读

由美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机反映了新自由主义意识形态的危机.新自由主义是从抽象的"理性人"出发,而不是从现实的社会关系出发,以抽象的普遍性意识形态,而不是以基于实践的科学意识形态,来演绎现实的政治经济建构.在"后金融危机"时期,对新自由主叉意识形态的认识与防范,时马克思主义意识形态的创新与发展,成为学术界亟待解决的重大课题.     

Anatomy of a financial crisis

This paper provides an asymmetric information framework for understanding the nature of financial crises. It provides the following precise definition of a financial crisis: A financial crisis is a disruption to financial markets in which adverse selection and moral hazard problems become much worse, so that financial markets are unable to efficiently channel funds to those who have the most productive investment opportunities. As a result, a financial crisis can drive the economy away from an equilibrium with high output in which financial markets perform well to one in which output declines sharply. The asymmetric information framework explains the patterns in the data and many features of these crises which are otherwise hard to explain. It indicates that financial crises have effects over and above those resulting from bank panics and therefore provides a rationale for an expanded lender-of-last-resort role for the central bank in which the central bank uses the discount window to provide liquidity to sectors outside of the banking system.     

The Korean financial crisis and the soft budget constraint

A panel of Korean firms is used to test for the soft budget constraint (SBC) in bank lending before and after the 1997–1998 financial crisis. SBC is present if a firm can borrow from its bank despite being in financial distress, which we define by a low Altman's z-score. We find that prior to 1997 financially distressed firms were able to borrow while after the crisis their ability to borrow declined substantially. We also demonstrate that SBC was a significant factor in the firms’ propensity to default during the crisis.     

A political-economic analysis of the failure of neo-liberal restructuring in post-crisis Korea

This paper evaluates IMF-led neo-liberal restructuring in post-crisisKorea. The main conclusions are that: the economic rebound in1999–2000 was both incomplete and unsustainable; restructuringcreated a ongoing credit crunch that continues to constraininvestment spending; Korea may have been pushed onto a long-termlow-investment, low-growth trajectory; insecurity and inequalityhave risen substantially; and the influence of foreign capitalhas dramatically increased. The paper concludes by suggestingthat Koreans should reject radical neo-liberal restructuringand consider instead reforms to democratise and modernise theirtraditional state-guided growth model.     

Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way

This paper extends Minsky's financial instability hypothesisto the case of the open, ‘liberalised’, economy,making it possible to put forward a specifically Minskyan accountof the road to the financial crisis in Southeast Asia (1997/1998).The analysis suggests that the threats to growth and employmentemanating from the financial sector which Minsky identifiedin the closed economy setting are much intensified in open,liberalised, developing economies. Financial liberalisationis an important key factor in this process. Rival explanationsof the crisis are examined and rejected in favour of the extendedMinskyan explanation. The policy implications are derived anddiscussed.     

Investing against the wind: contagion during the recent financial crisis

This article examines the effect of Warren Buffett’s investment in Goldman Sachs on 24 September 2008, during the subprime mortgage crisis. Although this event is arguably perceived to be the biggest expression of confidence in the financial market during the crisis, by conducting event studies, we do not find the major counterparties of Goldman Sachs displayed positive abnormal returns. Moreover, the abnormal return is not significantly related to the counterparty connection. We have similar findings on these financial institutions’ default probabilities using credit default swap.     

Economics of the crisis and the crisis of economics

Abstract

The macroeconomic instability revealed in the recent deep recession steams from the condition of balance sheets. Generally high leverage and strained maturity mismatches build up slowly but generate a financial structure so brittle that the impulse that eventually sends it crashing is hard to identify. The US financial system had been rendered more vulnerable by the financial reforms that swept away the Glass-Steagall regulations. The crisis made the inadquancies of the ruling macroeconomic paradigm painfully obvious. DSGE models generally did not include a financial sector and did not take the possibility of dramatic instability seriously. Unanticipated violations of budget constraints do not fit easily into general equilibrium models.     

我国政府危机管理现状及对策分析

当前我国已进入一个危机事件高发期，政府危机管理能力的提高是亟待解决的问题，本文对我国政府危机管理现状及现存问题进行分析，并从体制、技术等角度提出一些对策，以期待推进我国政府危机管理能力的提高。     

The transition crisis in Bulgaria

In 1996-97, while making its way through a difficult processof economic and political transformations, Bulgaria was hitby a severe economic crisis. This paper seeks to reveal andanalyse the underlying factors and causes of this crisis. Itfocuses on empirical issues but also highlights some basic causalitiesand interrelations between economic variables during the crisisas well as the role of economic policy. The economic turmoilin Bulgaria is addressed from three different perspectives:(1) the historic roots of the crisis; (2) the actual evolutionof the fiscal, banking and currency crises, and (3) the politicaleconomy of the transition in Bulgaria.     

Household debt and spending during the financial crisis: Evidence from Danish micro data

We use data for nearly 500,000 Danish households to study the relationship between household leverage prior to the financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the development in spending over the course of the crisis. We find a strong negative correlation between pre-crisis leverage and the change in spending during the crisis. This reflects that highly levered households spent a larger share of their income than their less-levered peers prior to the crisis, resulting in larger increases in debt in these years. Once we condition on the size of the pre-crisis change in debt, a high level of debt is no longer associated with a larger spending decline. Our results suggest that the larger decline in spending among high-leverage households is the result of a spending normalization pattern that is also found in other years, rather than a causal effect of high debt levels suppressing household spending during the crisis.     

This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis

Fiscal policy was more countercyclical during the Covid-19 crisis than in previous (crisis) episodes. This paper presents empirical evidence in favour of a “this time truly is different” moment based on analysing the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy for 28 advanced economies over 1995–2021. Discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020–2021) did more to counteract the downturn – especially in the Eurozone –, as we do not find comparable evidence for countercyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis. Automatic fiscal stabilisers, the non-discretionary domain of fiscal policy, significantly contributed to countercyclical stabilisation during the pandemic.     

Financial crisis and sustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry

Sub-prime lending crisis has become an international financial crisis, which is evolving into an economic recession sweeping across the West. Financial crisis leads to the demand reduction in western countries, and as the largest manufacturing country, China must face overproduction. The role of China as ＂world factory＂ determines that financial crisis will severely attack Chinese manufacturing industry. The unsustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry is mainly reflected in the following aspects： heavy dependence on export, low-level manufacturing link, lack of modern service industry and high-tech industry, weak independent innovative ability, unsustainable exploration of heavy-pollution resources, and lack of international famous brands. How to transform crisis to opportunities is an urgent research topic. Under the circumstance of financial crisis. Chinese manufacturing industry has more external drives to change the current situation. Therefore, financial crisis becomes not only an opportunity for Chinese manufacturing industry to improve itself based on the existing accumulation but also a chance for China to transform from ＂world factory＂ into a powerful nation of manufacturing industry in the world.     

Financial crisis and persistence: evidence from sticky expectations consumption growth model

We estimate the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth for the U.S. considering the effects of the Great Recession. The behavior of stickiness estimate in the crisis is somewhat as the U-shaped pattern. Our findings imply that during the crisis consumers’ attentiveness to aggregate information has slightly increased, thereby reducing the persistence of aggregate consumption growth. However, the reduction in persistence is transitory. Since 1980, the U.S. faced five recessions and in most of them the degree of stickiness declined, albeit temporarily.     

Distinguishing characteristics of the Martiniquan economy and constraints on modelling

The decentralization law confers on local elected representatives powers in the fields of economic, social and cultural development. For this purpose we have constructed a large-scale macroeconometric model for Martinique. The purpose of this article is to present the model and discuss its capacity. To begin with we shall set out its general structure. We shall then describe the relationships that have been selected for solving the model. Finally we shall examine the power of the model, first of all in retrospective simulations and then from the point of view of economic policy. The variants selected are: a demand policy, a supply policy and a policy aimed at bringing the Martiniquan minimum wage up to the level of the metropolitan wage.     

从金融危机看宏观型对冲基金的本质

国际资本自由流动是宏观型对冲基金的温床。尽管国际上受美金融危机发生的具体原因千差万别,但共同的特点是有意、无意地扩大宏观经济基本面的失衡,然后借助金融市场的瞬间强制调整,获取巨额利润。宏观型对冲基金作为盈利组织无可厚非,关键是要避免宏观经济的严重失衡。     

Tariff reforms with rigid wages

This paper analyses the effects of tariff reforms on welfare and market access in a competitive small open economy, which is characterised by involuntary unemployment due to non-market clearing wages that are fixed either in terms of the numeraire or in real terms. We show that recent tariff-reform results can be extended to integrated reforms of tariffs and the wage rate, and that the inherent tension between reforms that increase welfare and market access carries over. We also derive welfare increasing tariff-reform strategies that keep the wage rate constant and show that this tension may be attenuated. We thank Peter Neary, an anonymous referee, as well as participants at the GEP Conference on New Directions in Trade Theory and at the ETSG Annual Conference in Athens for helpful comments. We acknowledge gratefully financial support from the Leverhulme Trust under Programme Grant F114/BF.     

Structural VAR models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis during the pre- and post-1997 Asian crisis periods

This article conducts an in-depth investigation into building a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model and analysing the Malaysian monetary policy. Considerable attention is paid to: (i) the selection of foreign, policy and target variables; (ii) establish identifying restrictions and improve the estimates of impulse response functions; (iii) assess the importance of intermediate channels in transmitting monetary policy mechanism; and (iv) the way in which the 1997 Asian financial crisis affected the working of monetary policy. Malaysia is an interesting small open economy to study because, following this crisis, the government imposed capital and exchange rate control measures. The overall results suggest that the crisis and the subsequent major shift in the exchange rate regime have significantly affected the Malaysian ‘Black Box’. In the pre-crisis period, domestic variables appear to be more vulnerable to foreign monetary shocks. Further, the exchange rate played a significant role in transmitting the interest rate shocks, whereas credit and asset prices helped to propagate the money shock. In the post-crisis period however, asset prices play a more domineering role in intensifying the effects of both interest rate and money shocks on output, and the economy was insulated from foreign shocks.     

Climate change,fossil fuel prices and depletion: The rationale for a falling export tax

This paper examines how world prices affect depletion of exhaustible fossil fuels for export and the role of an export revenue tax in curbing depletion. Both effects are studied for a small open economy affected by climate change. We find that setting an export revenue tax rate to fall over time at the marginal social cost of depletion due to lower productivity from climate change encourages a resource exporter to leave an optimal stock in the ground – unextracted and unburnable. Growing prices during the past decade similarly curb depletion. Falling prices bring forward extraction. Because production is independent of consumption, the marginal social cost is independent of utility parameters which are difficult to estimate. Slowing fossil fuel extraction and the effective export of emissions is a contemporary challenge for climate policy. Our findings identify both why an export revenue tax should decline over time and an estimable target rate of decline to help meet this challenge amid changing world prices.     

美国金融救援方案：缘起、评析及效果前瞻

近日,美国政府通过了经国会批准的7000亿美元金融救援方案,旨在通过购买金融机构的不良资产,起到稳定经济、防止金融危机进一步恶化的作用。该方案一出台,立即引起争议:一方认为政府及时采取措施救市值得肯定;另一方认为动用纳税者资金太过庞大,并不一定是解决之道。该救援方案的效果到底如何,在美国当前复杂的经济形势下,仍然存在很大疑问,本文对此做了全面评价。     

关于中国经济增长与全要素生产率的理论思考

针对中国的经济增长仅仅依赖于投入驱动的观点 ,本文首先介绍了经济增长的相关理论 ,随后提出了四点中国经济存在效率提升的证据。接着在回顾测算全要素生产率的方法的基础上 ,本文提出新兴经济在测算全要素生产率上要与发达国家不同 ,并指出了具体方法