CEO career horizon,corporate governance,and real options: The role of economic short‐termism

Research Summary: Combining studies on real options theory and economic short‐termism, we propose that, depending on CEOs’ career horizons, CEOs have heterogeneous interests in strategic flexibility, and thus, have different incentives to make real options investments. We argue that compared to CEOs with longer career horizons, CEOs with shorter career horizons will be less inclined to make real options investments because they may not fully reap the rewards during their tenure. In addition, we argue that long‐term incentives and institutional ownership will mitigate the relationship between CEOs’ career horizons and real options investments. U.S. public firms as an empirical setting produced consistent evidence for our predictions. Our study is the first to theoretically explain and empirically show that a CEO's self‐seeking behavior will impact real options investments. Managerial Summary: This article helps to explain how a CEO's self seeking‐behavior may shape a firm's real option investment, which could result in different level of strategic flexibility. We argue that CEOs with short career horizons have less time to exercise their firms’ real options, which should lower the investments in the firms’ real options portfolios relative to CEOs with long career horizons. We study a sample of U.S. public firms and find strong evidence that a CEO's expected tenure in the firm is positively related to the real options investments at the firm level. We find that this agency issue can be mitigated by adopting appropriate corporate governance mechanisms such as long‐term incentives and institutional investors.     

Exploration and Resource Commitments in Unequal Partnerships: An Examination of Corporate Venture Capital Investments

While established firms' relationships with external ventures may have significant strategic benefits, the realization of such benefits is fraught with considerable uncertainty. The real options and interorganizational learning literatures present an interesting trade‐off for established firms regarding commitment of resources in a partnership. This study seeks to enhance our understanding of how firms manage these trade‐offs when committing resources to external venturing initiatives. We examine the magnitude of resources initially committed by an established firm to an external venturing partnership in the context of corporate venture capital (CVC) investments. While a real options approach suggests that resource commitments should be lowered in the presence of uncertainty regarding realization of benefits, the interorganizational literature emphasizes that resource commitments may be essential for building quality relationships that expedite learning. Corporate investors, who invest in new ventures in order to gain strategic benefits, face higher uncertainty when their investment objectives involve greater exploration. However, greater exploration also increases investors' need to learn from their portfolio ventures. We, therefore, predicted that the degree of exploration would have a U‐shaped relationship with the investor's resource commitment in a venture. We also expected that factors that serve to decrease the investor's uncertainty, i.e., investor experience diversity and venture affiliation to prominent venture capitalists, would moderate the U‐shaped relationship between exploration and resource commitment. The predictions of the study are tested on a sample of 248 initial investments in private ventures made by incumbent firms in the computer, semiconductor, and telecommunications industries between 1996 and 2000. We find some support for our hypotheses. This study contributes to the external venturing literature on CVC investments by examining the determinants of the magnitude of resource commitment to new ventures, and integrates real options perspective, which advocates low resource commitments under uncertainty, with the organizational learning literature, which argues for greater resource commitment to secure partner cooperation. The results of this study reveal interesting insights into how CVC investors manage individual investments to generate strategic benefits.     

Why some firms never invest in formal R&D

In this paper we study the frequency of formal R&D investments. We link real options theory to the knowledge‐based view to explain how a firm's knowledge resources influence its frequency of investing in R&D to establish technological options. Specifically, we propose that a firm that lacks internal knowledge resources is more likely to never invest in R&D, a firm that has both internal and external knowledge resources is more likely to sometimes invest in R&D, while a firm that has internal knowledge resources but lacks external knowledge resources is more likely to always invest in R&D. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Project valuation in the pharmaceutical industry: a comparison of least‐squares Monte Carlo real option valuation and conventional approaches

Least‐squares Monte Carlo simulation (LSM) is a promising new technique for valuing real options that has received little or no attention in the pharmaceutical industry. This study demonstrates that LSM can handle complex valuation situations with multiple uncertainties and compounded American‐type options. The limited application of real option valuation (ROV) in the pharmaceutical industry is remarkable, given the importance of accurate project valuation in an industry that requires large investments in high‐risk projects with long pay‐back periods, which is furthermore suffering from ever‐increasing development costs and shrinking profit margins. The LSM model developed in this study is constructed as an extension of a discounted cash flow model that should be familiar to economists active in the pharmaceutical industry. A number of pharmaceutical projects have been evaluated using LSM ROV, binominal real option valuation and expected net present value techniques. The different results yielded by these methods are explained in terms of differences in risking assumptions and ability to capture the value of flexibility. The analysis provides a framework to introduce the basic concepts of real option pricing to a non‐specialist audience. The LSM model illustrates the potential for real‐life commercial assessment as the versatility of the technique allows for an easy customisation to specific business problems.     

A model of person‐pay interaction: how executives vary in their responses to compensation arrangements

A wealth of research indicates that both executive characteristics and incentive compensation affect organizational outcomes, but the literatures within these two domains have followed distinct, separate paths. Our paper provides a framework for integrating these two perspectives. We introduce a new model that specifies how executive characteristics and incentives operate in tandem to influence strategic decisions and firm performance. We then illustrate our model by portraying how executive characteristics interact with a specific type of pay instrument—stock options—to affect executive behaviors and organizational outcomes. Focusing on three individual‐level attributes (executive motives and drives, cognitive frame, and self‐confidence), we develop propositions detailing how executives will vary in their risk‐taking behaviors in response to stock options. We further argue that stock options will amplify the implications of executive ability, such that option‐heavy incentive schemes will increase the performance of talented executives but worsen the performance of low‐ability executives. Our framework and propositions are meant to provide a starting point for future theorizing and empirical testing of the interactive effects of executive characteristics and incentive compensation on strategic decisions and organizational performance. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal exploration investments under price and geological‐technical uncertainty: a real options model

This article develops a real options model for valuing natural resource exploration investments (e.g. oil or copper) when there is joint price and geological‐technical uncertainty. After a successful several‐stage exploration phase, there is a development investment and an extraction phase. All phases are optimized contingent on price and geological‐technical uncertainty.
Several real options are considered. There are flexible investment schedules for all exploration stages and a timing option for the development investment. Once the mine is developed, there are closure, opening and abandonment options for the extraction phase. Our model maintains a relatively simple valuation structure by collapsing price and geological‐technical uncertainty into a one‐factor model.
We apply the model to a copper exploration prospect and find that a significant fraction of total project value is due to the operational, development and exploration options available to project managers.     

Bribery and investment: Firm‐level evidence from Africa and Latin America

Research summary : Using a unique database that measures firm‐level bribery in Africa and Latin America, we corroborate extant results in the literature that paying bribes deters firm investments in fixed assets. Our contribution is to explore four mechanisms. By adopting a reverse causality approach (Gelman and Imbens, 2013), we find evidence consistent with one of them: short‐term oriented firms prefer to bribe rather than invest in fixed assets, while the opposite is true for firms with a long‐term orientation. We rule out that bribe payments drain financial resources for investment, that firms that invest do not bribe because fixed assets make them less flexible and more vulnerable to future bribes, and that less efficient firms bribe rather than invest. Managerial summary : We ask whether, along with ethical issues, bribing affects the behavior and performance of firms in Africa and Latin America. Our statistical analysis shows that bribe payments do not reduce the short‐term performance of firms, but frustrate investments in fixed assets, which is the foundation of firms' long‐term growth. It is like seeking a job via nepotism or education. Nepotism makes it likely to find a job in the short term. However, the solid skills generated by education raise the odds of finding better jobs in the future. We rule out some common explanations for the trade‐off between bribing and investment (e.g., bribes drain resources to invest or that less efficient firms bribe and do not invest). Our analysis suggests that firms with short‐term orientations are more likely to bribe and firms with long‐term orientation are more likely to invest. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Internet companies' growth strategies: determinants of investment intensity and long‐term performance

To exploit first‐mover advantages, pioneers may be motivated to amass customers before rivals enter the market. Likewise, when they enjoy increasing returns due to network effects, static scale economies, or learning effects, companies have incentives to invest aggressively in growth. This paper presents econometric analysis of factors that determined the intensity of Internet companies' investments in growth, and analyzes the long‐term performance consequences of such investments. Results indicate that first movers spent significantly more on upfront marketing than non‐pioneers. Contrary to expectations, however, firms in markets that exhibited increasing returns did not spend more on their early customer acquisition efforts than other sample companies. Although the typical sample company did not earn positive long‐term returns, heavy early investments in growth were nevertheless economically rational. In most cases, reducing marketing outlays would have worsened a bad outcome, consistent with an inverted ‘U’ relationship between long‐term returns and upfront marketing spending. Thus, the typical sample company invested in marketing, ex ante, at levels close to those that would have maximized returns, observed ex post. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Property Investment and Rental Rate under Housing Price Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach

The conventional wisdom that housing prices are the present value of future rents ignores the fact that unlike dividends on stocks, rent is not discretionary. Housing price uncertainty can affect household property investments, which in turn affect rent. By extending the theory of investment under uncertainty, we model the renter's decision to buy a house and the landlord's decision to sell as the exercising of real options of waiting and examine real options effects on rent. Using data from Hong Kong and mainland China, we find a significant effect of housing price on rent and draw important policy implications.     

Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of Individual Investors in Real Estate Securities and Income-Producing Property

Analysis of the responses to a nationwide survey of investors demonstrates that individuals who invest in real estate differ in a predictable way from those who invest in assets other than real estate. Two types of real estate investment vehicles are studied: income-producing (rental) property and real estate securities. A multiple group discriminant analysis model is presented which successfully classifies prospective investors into four groups (owners of income property only, real estate securities only, both, neither) with a predictive accuracy more than double the chance probability of correct classification. The results provide insights useful in policy analysis and the design and marketing of real estate investments.     

Real options reasoning and a new look at the R&D investment strategies of pharmaceutical firms

Real options reasoning (ROR) is a conceptual approach to strategic investment that takes into account the value of preserving the right to make future choices under uncertain conditions. In this study, we explore firms' motivations to invest in a new option. We find, based on an analysis of a large sample of patents by firms active in the pharmaceutical industry, that their investments in R&D are consistent with the logic of ROR. We identify three constructs—scope of opportunity, prior experience, and competitive effects—which have an influence on firms' propensity to invest in new R&D options and which could usefully be incorporated in a strategic theory of investment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flexibility in internationalization: is it valuable during an economic crisis?

This study investigates the value of the strategic flexibility provided by firms' international investments during an economic crisis, defined here as an unanticipated significant downturn in the economy. To avoid below‐par performance, firms need to adapt quickly to this significant change in their environment, making real options very valuable to them. Although firms' international investments can potentially provide such flexibility, this issue has not been empirically examined in a context of such dramatic negative change. We consider two types of international investments by firms in this regard, foreign direct investments and export‐related international investments, developing two measures that directly assess the flexibility derived from each that are new to the literature. Based on these measures, we find evidence that both types of international investments provided valuable flexibility for Korean firms during the economic crisis conditions. This study contributes to the literature by showing that firms with real options investments in place have a greater ability to flexibly adapt their overall operations in line with unforeseen negative environmental change, in contrast to firms without such investments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Firm non‐market capabilities and the effect of supranational institutional safeguards on the location choice of international investments

Research Summary : We investigate the extent to which firms rely on supranational institutional safeguards versus their non‐market capabilities to offset the risks of investing abroad. We argue that firms with non‐market capabilities are insensitive to supranational institutional safeguards when choosing the location of their international investments. We show that supranational agreements between an investor's home and host nation, operationalized as bilateral investment treaties (BITs), increase the likelihood of investment, but there is substantial firm heterogeneity with respect to this relationship. Firms with various forms of non‐market capabilities are not sensitive to BITs, whereas other firms are more likely to invest under BITs. We advance the understanding of how firm non‐market capabilities can substitute for supranational institutional arrangements in addressing risks associated with host country institutional weaknesses. Managerial Summary : The risk of expropriation is one of the main concerns companies have when investing abroad. Because of this, many countries implement bilateral investment treaties (BITs) to safeguard foreign investments, alleviate foreign investor concerns, and promote investments. We show that only those companies without political competence or political connections favor countries with BITs when choosing where to invest. Companies with political competence or political connections, on the other hand, ignore BITs and apparently rely on their ability to influence governments whenever their foreign investments face expropriation threats. As a result, politically connected or competent companies can enter markets most of their competitors lacking these capabilities shy away from. They can, therefore, do business in environments in which they face less competition.     

The Effects of Knowledge Depth and Scope on the Relationship between R&D Alliances and New Product Development

In this study, we extend the new product development (NPD) literature that proposes that firms' knowledge depth, defined as the reuse of well understood technical knowledge, and scope, defined as the use of newly acquired technical knowledge, and new knowledge accessed from R&D alliances all positively impact NPD. Building on the knowledge‐based view of the firm, we posit that the impact of firms' R&D alliances is limited when their internal knowledge depth and scope are adequate for NPD needs. We suggest that although firms form R&D alliances to gain the right to access external knowledge of R&D alliance partners, they are not obligated to invest in resources to integrate external knowledge from R&D alliances. We propose that they wait to see if their internal knowledge depth and scope prove sufficient for NPD. If the external knowledge proves to be unnecessary, firms choose not to invest the resources required to integrate this knowledge with their internal knowledge. Alternatively, we suggest an increased impact of R&D alliances on NPD when firms are more limited in their internal knowledge depth and scope. We propose that when knowledge depth and scope prove insufficient, firms make the additional investments required to integrate external knowledge from R&D alliances with their internal knowledge stock. This reasoning is consistent with real options theory as it has been applied in alliance research, where strategic alliances are characterized as real options. We find support for our hypotheses using panel data of 738 firm year observations for 143 U.S. biopharmaceutical firms operating in 2007. Our study contributes to the NPD literature and suggests new directions for future research.     

Valuing Real Capital Investments Using The Least-Squares Monte Carlo Method

The recently developed least-squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method provides a simple and efficient technique for valuing American-type options. The proposed method is applicable to the cases of compound real options, like the other numerical techniques such as finite difference and lattice methods, with the additional advantage to handle easily the cases of multiple uncertain state variables with different and complex stochastic processes. With this advantage, the LSM method is not only efficient for valuing multi-factor American options, but it can also be extended for valuing complex real investments having many embedded real options and involving multiple uncertain state variables. This article examines the applicability of the LSM method in valuing real capital investments. Two valuation examples have been provided to test the efficiency of the proposed method in both the valuation and the decision-making processes.     

Uncertainty and the market valuation of R&D within a real options logic

The aim of this study is to provide new theoretical insights and empirical evidence on the effect of market and technological uncertainty on the market valuation of a firm's R&D capital. A set of hypotheses is developed adopting a real options logic and tested on a panel dataset of 290 manufacturing firms traded in the UK. Consistently with our theoretical model, we show that market and technological uncertainty have distinct effects on the valuation of R&D investments. The results have several important implications for resource allocation to R&D under uncertainty, which we discuss in the concluding section. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Making real options work for practitioners: a generic model for valuing R&D projects

We propose a generic valuation framework for the appraisal of R&D projects based on real option theory. The added value of this approach is the presentation of a model that was implemented in a manner that allows corporate decision makers to use real options in an intuitive and standardized way. The project valuation procedure is separated into three main phases: project modeling, data and input collection, and result generation and analysis. The project model represents the structure of the real world R&D project with its investments, expected results, and decisions that need to be taken conditionally on the outcomes of research activities. The project model is represented in the form of a decision tree, where different research results or taken decisions lead to new branches. In this way, every possible situation the project can pass through can be represented. Uncertainties are separated into market uncertainties (e.g., market prices) and project specific, private uncertainties (e.g. uncertainty of research results). For both uncertainties, event trees are constructed which are then combined and merged with the above mentioned decision tree in order to represent the value evolution of the R&D project under given decisions and uncertainties. For every possible state of the project the real option value is calculated. By creating multidimensional trees, a multitude of decision steps and various kinds of real options (e.g., continue, expansion, switch, abandonment) can be modeled. The calculation complexity for the decision trees is given. From the tree structure we can calculate the real option value of starting an R&D project, i.e., the value of undertaking the first investment and thus acquiring the subsequent decision opportunities given by the completion of the first research effort. Furthermore, the optimal exercise strategy is derived from the decision tree. The exercise strategy gives the manager the possibility to have an a priori overview of where an R&D project may lead to, which decisions need to be taken in which circumstances, and when the project needs to be stopped in order not to generate losses. In an in‐depth case study we use an illustrative R&D project to set up and discuss the three phases of project modeling in the real options framework: building the multidimensional decision tree, input generation, and calculation of the real option value as well as the optimal strategy for the R&D project.     

Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long‐range investment decisions

We present the results of three field experiments demonstrating the effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of several long‐range investment decisions. Our results show, contrary to past findings, that the use of multiple scenarios does not cause an aggregate increase or decrease in experts' confidence in their judgment. Rather, expert judgment changes in accordance with how an investment fares in a given scenario: it becomes more favorable if the investment is found to be useful for a particular scenario used by the expert, and vice versa. This scenario‐induced change is moderated by the expert's confidence in his/her judgment before using the scenario. Finally, our results show that field experts prefer more flexible options to make specific long‐range investments after using multiple scenarios. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real options and real value: the role of employee incentives to make specific knowledge investments

Real options reasoning emphasizes the strategic value of making flexible investments in a turbulent environment. Employees' investments in specific human capital are often critical to the success of a real option project, but the very flexibility that allows a firm to change course in response to new information also affects employees' incentives to make such specific human capital investments. We develop a model of real option investment that explicitly incorporates the role of employee incentives. The model suggests that the effect of investing in a real option project on employee incentives may be positive, further increasing the value of the project, or negative, sometimes more than offsetting the benefit of flexibility and resulting in reduced project value. Therefore, firms and managers should take into consideration the role of employee incentives when applying real options logic to investment decision making. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.