Optimal monetary policy for a small open economy

This paper focuses on the design of monetary policy rules for a small open economy. The model features optimizing behavior, general equilibrium and price stickiness. The real exchange rate is shown to affect the firm's real marginal cost, aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The welfare objective depends on the openness of the economy, and the optimal policy rule differs from that which obtains in a closed economy. The inflation versus output gap stabilization trade-off is caused by the real exchange rate. The implied optimal monetary policy regime is domestic inflation target coupled with controlled floating of the real exchange rate.     

Even more on monetary policy in a small open economy

It is well known that in a small open economy with full capital mobility and a fixed exchange rate, monetary policy is ineffective in influencing real output (e.g. the works of Fleming [Int. Monetary Fund Staff Pap. 9 (1962) 369.] and Mundell [Can. J. Econ. Polit. Sci. 29 (1963) 475.]). However, Wu [Int. Rev. Econ. Finance 8 (1999) 223.] finds that when the credit channel is added to this model, monetary policy can have real effects under a fixed exchange rate system. This conclusion hinges on the assumption that open market operations have no effect on foreign exchange reserves of the central bank when evaluating how a change in monetary policy affects the loan market. This assumption is incorrect because under a fixed exchange rate regime, the quantity of foreign reserves becomes endogenous in the model. It is shown that when this assumption is relaxed, monetary policy is still ineffective in influencing output under a fixed exchange regime, even with an operative credit channel.     

Sectoral labor adjustment and monetary policy in a small open economy

This paper studies the welfare implications of sectoral labor adjustment cost in a two-sector small open economy model with sticky prices. We find that, when the economy faces external shocks, if monetary policy can stabilize the real economy, then sectoral labor market adjustment cost will lead to welfare loss. However, if monetary policy such as fixed exchange rates cannot stabilize real variables, then some degree of labor market friction will improve welfare instead and the gain will be significant. As a result, the welfare gap between flexible exchange rates and fixed exchange rates decreases with sectoral labor market friction. This is because the friction can offset some of the nominal rigidity and become a substitute for monetary policy to stabilize the real economy.     

The optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a small open economy

Abstract.  This paper studies how the nature of shocks affects the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a small open economy. Three classic rules, fixed exchange rates, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting are studied and ranked by comparing with the optimal monetary policy under commitment. We find that the ranking of the simple rules can be mapped to the terms-of-trade variability that the rule allows relative to what a particular shock optimally calls for. It turns out that inflation targeting dominates the other two rules under productivity or velocity shocks, whereas monetary targeting is the best performer under fiscal shocks.     

Actual monetary policy independence in a small open economy: the Polish perspective

Empirical Economics - The aim of this article is to examine the actual degree of monetary policy independence in a small open economy with floating exchange rate that is integrated with the world...     

A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy

New Zealand is a small economy exposed to a volatile climate, relatively volatile international trade prices, and its exposure to international financial markets has increased markedly since economic reforms in the 1980s. This paper applies identification techniques suggested by Cushman and Zha [Cushman, D.O. and Zha T.A., 1997. Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates, Journal of Monetary Economics, 39, pp. 433–448.], Zha [Zha, T.A., (1999). Block recursion and structural vector autoregression, Journal of Econometrics, 90, pp. 291–316.] and Dungey and Pagan [Dungey, M. and Pagan, A., 2000. A structural VAR model of the Australian economy, The Economic Record, 76, pp. 321–342.] to develop a large four block structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle to capture these features. The model reveals that climate and international trade price shocks have been more important sources of business cycles fluctuations than international or domestic financial shocks. Furthermore, the model does not encounter the price and exchange rate puzzles that have bedevilled attempts to identify monetary policy shocks in small open economy SVAR models.     

A structural model of price and exchange rate dynamics in a small open economy

Conclusions A major result following from the analysis of ourstructural model of inflation under flexible exchange rates is that there is no such thing asstructural inflation in the long run. Long-run inflation rather becomes a purely monetary phenomenon if exchange rates are flexible and if on an international level functioning capital markets are postulated. While, in the light of the assumptions made in Part III, this finding is not nearly as paradoxical as it may appear at first sight, it can hardly be overemphasized considering the ongoing theoretical discussion and the empirical research on the Scandinavian approach to inflation and recalling that the Scandinavian model is basically intended to picture equilibrium dynamics.The results concerning equilibrium price and exchange rate dynamics also apply to the equilibriumlevels of prices and the exchange rate, i. e., the equilibrium price level depends exclusively on monetary factors while the equilibrium exchange rate is determined by a purchasing power parity element and the structural productivity gap component.Turning to the results of our analysis of disequilibrium dynamics, the overall picture does not change very much. Here the qualitative pattern of adjustment of both prices and the exchange rate is again completely independent of structural variables, but is exclusively determined by four adjustment coefficients. However, the particular quantitative values assumed by prices and the exchange rate during the adjustment process do indeed reflect the impact of the productivity gap.No conclusions can be derived from our model on the amount of time it takes to return to the neighbourhood of equilibrium once the economy has been subjected to some kind of external shock. A casual examination of post-1973 developments and especially the Swiss experience suggest, however, that in the case of a disturbance as, e. g., in the form of a monetary contraction (relative to the rest of the world), the economy may take so long to return to the neighbourhood of long-run equilibrium that the negative real consequences of the overvaluation of the domestic currency during the adjustment process provide a momentous rationale for short-run stabilization interventions in the foreign exchange market.We should like to thank Peter Bernholz and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on a previous version of this paper.     

Investment-specific shocks and external balances in a small open economy model

Abstract.  We set up a standard small open economy business cycle model driven by government spending shocks, neutral productivity (TFP) shocks, and investment-specific shocks. The model is calibrated to quarterly Canadian data and its predicted moments and sample paths are compared with their Canadian counterparts. We find that the model captures the dynamics in investment and in the trade balance better than special cases of the model where either one of the productivity shocks is omitted. More specifically, the model matches the variance of the trade balance-output ratio, its correlation with output and its autocorrelation. It also matches the output-investment correlation.     

Capital utilization and habit formation in a small open economy model

Abstract.  This paper shows the effects of endogenous capital utilization and habit formation in consumption on the predictions of a small open economy model calibrated to Canada. Capital utilization improves the fit of the model by increasing the volatility of output, investment, and hours worked, while habit formation improves the fit of the model by improving the dynamic properties of consumption and the current account. It is also shown that while shocks to the world interest rate sometimes improve the fit of the baseline model, they do not improve the fit of the model with capital utilization and habit formation. JEL classification: E32, F32     

On a mixed competitive-monopolistic macrodynamic model in a monetary economy

In this paper we reconsider the dynamic stability of the mixed competitive-monopolistic system in an analytical framework of the macroeconomic growth model in a monetary economy. We construct a simple monetary growth model in the so-called Keynes-Wicksell tradition and investigate how the degree of competition affects the dynamic stability of the system. Our analysis reveals the destabilizing rather than the stabilizing forces of the monopolistic system in amonetary economy contrary to the usual analyses. We also show that the system produces the purely cyclical behavior at some intermediate degrees of competition by using the Hopf-Bifurcation theorem.This paper was written while the author was staying at the New School for Social Research in New York as a visiting research scholar. Special thanks are due to Prof. Willi Semmler for providing the comfortable research environment and to Komazawa University for the financial support. The author is also grateful to Dr. Reiner Franke and two anonymous referees of this journal for their constructive comments and helpful suggestions. Needless to say, however, only the author is responsible for possible remaining errors.     

Intersectoral transfer of labour in a small open economy

This paper deals with normative and positive aspects of labour transfer processes in the context of a small open two-sector economy. Labour is not homogenous in the short run because transfer of labour is assumed to involve training costs in terms of output foregone when workers already possessing industry-specific knowledge are training new workers. The efficient transfer plan for this economy is characterized, and the determinants of the optimal rate of transfer derived. Upon examination of the competitive price system supporting the efficient plan, the first-best adjustment assistance policy is found, assuming real wages are sticky.     

A monetary economy with counterfeiting

We apply a search-theoretic model of fiat money to study the equilibria in which counterfeit money is accepted. Circulation of counterfeit money presupposes that the agents are impatient and that the punishment for holding it is not too severe. When the stock of genuine money is small counterfeit money may improve the efficiency of the economy. We establish that a monetary economy can be created with private provision of (counterfeit) money as long as the ruler has control over punishments. Totally noncooperative provision will fail as the economy will become flooded with money.     

Collateral fluctuations in a monetary economy

This paper studies economy-wide fluctuations that occur endogenously in the presence of monetary and real assets. Using a standard monetary search model, we consider an economy in which agents can increase consumption, over and above what their liquid monetary asset holdings would allow, pledging real assets as collateral for monetary loans. It is shown that, if the liquidation value of real assets is below full market value, a stable cyclical equilibrium can emerge in consumption and capital around the unstable steady state. We also provide conditions for the existence of cycles of higher order, chaos and sunspot equilibria.     

Labor immobility and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in a monetary union

It is believed that a common monetary policy in a monetary union will have identical effects on different countries as long as these countries have identical fundamentals. We show that, when there is specialization in production, the terms of trade react to the shock. The transmission mechanism of a monetary shock has in this case an additional channel, the terms of trade. This is the case even if state contingent assets can be traded across countries. For a reasonable parametrization, the differential on the transmission across countries is quantitatively significant when compared with the effect on the union's aggregates. Monetary shocks create cycles with higher volatility in “poor” countries than in “richer” ones.     

Optimal accumulation in a small open economy with technological uncertainty

Summary. This paper analyzes the optimal allocation problem of a small trading country facing an uncertain technology. It is involved in production of many commodities. Differentiability cannot be guaranteed, hence, the Ramsey-Euler condition of optimality needs to be modified. From the optimality criterion, we derive a pair of conditions, which does not require differentiability. If “enough” uncertainty is allowed, the sequence of the distribution functions of investment expenditure converges uniformly to a unique invariant measure. In addition to the weak convergence of the stochastic process of investment expenditure we also have the sequences of the stochastic process of investment expenditure converging weakly. Received: September 8, 1994; revised version: September 25, 1997     

The dynamic effects of tax policies in a small open economy

We develop an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy with both durable and nondurable consumption to address the implications of alternative tax policies. An increase in lump sum taxes reduces the steady state level of consumption and improves the stock of foreign bonds. Consistent with empirical evidence, durable consumption exhibits initial excess volatility. Though an increase in the tax on durables increases the demand for nondurables and improves the bond holdings in the steady state, an increase in the tax on nondurables has insignificant effects on the stock of foreign bonds and the consumption of durables. Using quarterly data from the UK and estimating generalized impulse response functions we find empirical support. We also calibrate the welfare implications of different tax policies.     

The real balance effect and the non-neutrality of money in a simple model of a small open economy

The paper examines the implications of the real balance effect for the neutrality of money in a small open economy model which contains an explicit treatment of aggregate supply. Two specific results emerge. First, an unanticipated monetary expansion is neutral in both the long and short runs, whilst an anticipated increase in the money supply has real short-run effects. Secondly, the non-neutrality associated with an anticipated monetary expansion manifests itself in a fall in output and employment during the transition to the new steady-state.     

Expectation traps in a new Keynesian open economy model

This paper illustrates that the presence of a money demand distortion in an otherwise standard new Keynesian open economy model results in multiple discretionary equilibria that arise in the form of expectations traps. If private sector inflation expectations become sufficiently unanchored, the model predicts that a monetary authority can easily be trapped into validating these expectations, thereby pushing the economy to a lower welfare equilibrium. Given the ease with which expectation traps arise in the presence of international linkages, the main result presented here suggests that maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations is a critically important policy goal for central banks in open economies.