信息不对称、抵押物与商业银行消费贷款经营行为——基于商业银行微观业务数据的经验分析

本文基于国内某银行消费贷款业务数据,实证研究了信息不对称条件下抵押物对商业银行消费贷款经营行为的影响。结果表明：（1）抵押物能够显著影响商业银行消费贷款配给行为,提供抵押物的借款人获得的借款额度明显较高,且抵押物配给效果受信息不对称程度影响明显;（2）抵押物与消费贷款违约风险呈现显著的负相关关系,抵押物作用机制中的“客户选择”效应占主导地位;（3）抵押物决定与借款人事前风险评估无明显关联,但与借款人抵押物可获得性高度相关,表明银行业务经营中存在一定程度的抵押物依赖现象。     

东莞市中小企业关系型贷款实证研究

本文在对国内外关系型贷款理论及实证研究进行了较详细梳理的基础上,针对国内关于中小企业关系型贷款实证研究主要只考虑其对贷款定价的影响,而缺少对关系型贷款理论有效性的实证检验的这一不足,本文运用多元logistic方法,利用2007年东莞市中小企业和金融机构的相关融资调研数据,从企业和银行两个角度进行了回归分析,为我国中小企业关系型贷款的存在性提供了直接证据,同时还研究了银企合作关系对中小企业获得贷款机会的影响,得出了针对我国沿海发达地区中小企业和金融机构发展的两点启示。     

我国商业银行贷款定价方法分析探讨

贷款定价合适与否影响到银行和客户的借贷关系,影响到银行的市场竞争力和市场份额,影响到银行的利润。文章从分析我国商业银行贷款定价方面存在的问题入手,借鉴国外银行贷款定价的方法和经验,结合实际情况,对我国商业银行贷款定价方法进行探讨并提出了建议。     

国房景气指数与贷款基准利率的回归分析

房地产行业与金融业存在较高的依存度，贷款基准利率作为中央银行调控宏观经济的重要工具，其变动必然会对房地产业的景气程度产生影响。通过相关系数的测定和回归分析得到的结论为国房景气指数与贷款基准利率之间存在显著负相关关系，二者能够建立线性关系较为显著的回归方程，但为不完全线性相关关系。     

房贷风险评估及银行的应对策略

房地产是当今中国经济的支柱产业,而房地产发展的资金绝大部分由银行贷款获得,因此房价的变动会使银行的贷款业务面临风险。本文首先分析了现阶段房贷与房价之间的关系,接着讨论了人口因素对房价的影响,分析了房价的走势;最后计算了在不同的贷款方式下,商业银行应对房价下调时的贷款风险临界值,给出了商业银行防范房价变动的应对策略。     

银行规模优势、关系建构与中小企业贷款的可获得性

鉴于关系型银行在解决信息不对称中不可或缺的作用,实证分析其对中小企业贷款可获得性的影响表明:企业在银行办理的业务种类越多,贷款的可获得性越大;当中小企业业主或主要管理人员是银行的VIP客户时,贷款的可获得性显著增加;银企关系持续时间和银企距离对贷款可获得性没有显著影响。从总体上看,大银行的贷款可获得性低于小银行,但关系型银行变量对中小企业从大银行贷款的可获得性有显著的正向影响。     

固定资产投资、金融机构贷款与地方政府债务

文章以全国31个省份,2008~2018年的数据为研究基础,通过实证分析固定资产投资、金融机构贷款与地方政府债务的关系。通过采用固定效应模型分析政府固定资产投资以及金融机构贷款对中国地方政府债务规模的影响。结果显示,固定资产投资与地方政府债务规模呈正相关,即固定资产投资额越大,地方政府债务越多;金融机构贷款与地方政府债务规模也呈正相关,且金融机构贷款额增加一倍,政府债务余额将增加约2倍。国内生产总值、地方财政决算支出以及进出口贸易总额均对本省政府债务存在显著的影响。     

基于VAR模型对房地产价格影响因素的实证研究

文章选取我国房地产价格作为研究对象,并根据2008～2018年的季度数据,建立VAR模型分析我国土地价格、货币供应量、人均可支配收入、存款准备金率、贷款基准利率和CPI对我国房价的影响。格兰杰因果检验表明,房价和土地价格、贷款基准利率存在双向格兰杰因果关系,房价和货币供应量、城镇居民人均可支配收入、存款准备金率和CPI存在单向格兰杰因果关系。方差分解结果表明,存款准备金率、贷款基准利率、土地价格、货币供应量对房价的影响较大。     

1992-2010年中国信贷供给结构与经济波动——基于VAR模型分析

文章选取1992—2010年的季度数据,通过建立各变量的VAR模型和VEC模型,对我国信贷供给结构与经济波动的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:中长期贷款、短期贷款与产出没有格兰杰因果关系,其它贷款与产出存在着相互因果关系,同时,信贷供给结构各变量均不引起通货膨胀的变化,而通货膨胀是中长期贷款、短期贷款变化的原因;从信贷供给结构各变量来看,其它贷款是引起我国经济波动的主要原因;中长期贷款、短期贷款、其它贷款三者之间存在不同程度的相互影响。基于这些分析结论,文章提出若干信贷政策的建议。     

论委托贷款

委托贷款,是信托人根据与委托人签订的委托贷款合同,在委托人存入委托贷款保证金额内,按委托人指定的具体对象、用途、期限等发放的贷款。委托贷款的各方关系决定了应当由委托人承担贷款风险及相应的法律责任;银行在委托贷款合同中自我定位也存在着一定的局限,业务相对人对委托贷款内涵的认识不足。本文就委托贷款之概述、风险进行简要解构,并提出相应的风险解决策略。     

中国建筑企业入世后的机遇与挑战及应对措施

本文从银企关系出发 ,首先介绍了国外银行体系进行中小企业借贷的传统做法———关系借贷 ,并对关系借贷进行了成本和收益分析。文章的后半部分对我国银行系统如何界定关系借贷做了一定的阐述。关系借贷有利于商业银行建立新型的银企关系 ,加强银行的风险控制。我们要站在双方     

Bank competition and monetary policy

There is an apparent theoretical discrepancy between the effects of monetary policy shocks on economies with differently competitive banking sectors. We employ cross-country data to investigate this hypothesis with two different approaches. First, using aggregate data we analyze the correlation between two indices: (i) a cumulative impulse response function providing an index of the effect of monetary policy shocks; and (ii) Panzar and Rosse's H-statistic as an index of the state of bank competition. Second, using disaggregated data we regress bank lending on the interaction of bank competition and monetary policy shocks. The first approach does not provide any evidence of a relationship between monetary policy shocks and bank competition. However, the second approach suggests that competition in the banking industry leads to smaller monetary policy effects on bank lending.     

Bank Lending and Economic Growth of Chinese Cities

Using a city-level dataset over the period 2004-2006,the present study investigates the relationship between bank lending and the economic growth of Chinese cities.Unlike past studies,we divide bank lending into loans from three types of banks:foreign banks,city banks and other banks.Our findings are threefold.First,the lending of foreign banks exhibits a strong and positive association with the economic growth of Chinese cities. Second,foreign direct investment in the sampled cities enhances the lending effects of foreign banks,but reduces the lending effects of other banks on the economy of Chinese cities.Third, the effects of city competitiveness are similar to those of foreign direct investment;that is,city competitiveness augments the lending effects of foreign banks but reduces the lending effects of other banks.     

Monetary Policy and Sectoral Bank Lending in Malaysia

Abstract

Unlike most studies on the effect of monetary policy on bank lending, this article intends to answer the question whether the tightening of monetary policy in Malaysia before and after the financial crisis in 1997 affected differently the commercial bank lending to various sectors of the economy. To achieve the objective, Vector Autoregressive Regression (VAR) method was used to generate impulse response function and variance decomposition to trace the impact of a shock in monetary policy on bank lending in Malaysia. The results show that a monetary policy tightening in Malaysia gives a negative impact on all the sectors. Analyzing sectoral responses to monetary shocks, evidence is found that some sectors are more affected than the others. The manufacturing, agricultural, and mining sector seems to decline more than the aggregate bank lending in response to interest rate shock.     

The Global Financial Crisis and Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Effects of Slowing Private Capital Inflows on Growth*

Abstract: This paper uses the bias‐corrected least‐squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator to examine the relationship between economic growth and four different types of private capital inflows (cross‐border bank lending, foreign direct investment (FDI), bonds flows and portfolio equity flows) on a sample of 15 selected sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2008. Our results show that FDI and cross‐border bank lending exert a significant and positive impact on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth, whereas portfolio equity flows and bonds flows have no growth impact. Our estimates suggest that a drop by 10 per cent in FDI inflows may lead to a 3 per cent decrease of income per capita growth in sub‐Saharan Africa, and a 10 per cent decrease in cross‐border bank lending may reduce growth by up to 1.5 per cent. Therefore, the global financial crisis is likely to have an important effect on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth through the private capital inflows channel.     

Influence of real estate prices on domestic bank loans in Southeast Asia

This study examines whether and how fluctuations in real estate prices affected bank lending in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand before and after the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis. Since the crisis, it has been claimed that the rise and fall in the price of real estate, which is used as collateral, affected bank lending and the macroeconomy in these Southeast Asian countries. The study implements a dynamic model of bank lending and employs a test using the panel data of domestic bank balance sheets in order to estimate the influence of real estate prices on new bank lending in the three countries. The study also examines the conditions surrounding the role of real estate as collateral for bank loans in the countries. The regression results suggest that fluctuations in real estate prices can influence domestic bank lending and did so, especially after the crisis in Singapore and Thailand, and that domestic bank lending behaviour in these countries changed after the crisis.     

Microdata Evidence on the Bank Lending Channel in the Netherlands

This study contributes to the empirical evidence on the lending channel in the Netherlands using individual bank data. The main conclusion is that a lending channel is operative in the Netherlands. However, it is only operative for unsecured lending and not for secured lending, possibly because loans with government guarantees get special treatment by banks. Effects of monetary tightening on unsecured lending are more negative for smaller, less liquid and less capitalised banks, in line with the lending channel theory. The contribution of this study is that it gives evidence that the monetary policy impact on bank lending also depends on the market segment in which a bank is active. The evidence suggests that the policy impact is weaker on credit to households than it is on lending to firms.     

Does a large loss of bank capital cause Evergreening? Evidence from Japan

Using the real estate lending share of the bank’s loan portfolio at the peak of the land-price bubble as an instrument for bank capital, we identify the impact of capital adequacy on the allocation of bank lending under the Basel regulatory framework. We find that, in Japan, a large loss of bank capital caused by the regulator’s excessively tough stance towards banks not only induced the contraction of the bank lending supply but also the banks’ reallocation of their lending portfolios to financially unhealthy industries with a higher concentration of non-performing loans.     

Soft budget constraints, bank capital, and the monetary transmission mechanism

This paper investigates the effect of monetary policy in a situation where soft budget constraint problems prevail in the economy and the bank faces a capital requirement. Under these circumstances, an expansionary monetary policy may increase quantity of bank lending without improving the quality and thus may not stimulate economic activity. On the other hand, in order to solve the problem of soft budget constraint problems and to improve the quality of bank lending, the quantity of bank lending should be decreased. Central authorities need to keep this tradeoff in mind when exercising monetary policy and injecting public funds.