Do stock-for-stock merger acquirers manage earnings? Evidence from Japan

This paper examines the earnings management behavior of Japanese merger acquirers on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Most Japanese mergers are transacted via stock swaps, when acquirers have incentive to manage pre-merger earnings to reduce the cost of acquisition. Consistent with this incentive, Japanese acquirers have significantly positive long-term abnormal accruals in the year prior to the merger announcement. Further analyses suggest that acquirers’ extent of earnings management is an increasing function of their economic benefit at stake, and a decreasing function of monitoring by banks and foreign investors.     

Why do accruals predict earnings?

Higher accruals are associated with lower subsequent earnings. We show this phenomenon can be explained by the way sales, profits, and working capital respond to changes in a firm's product markets. Empirically, high accruals predict high subsequent sales growth but a long-lasting drop in both profits and profitability. Accruals also predict an increase in future competition, suggesting that accruals are correlated with abnormally high—and, in equilibrium, transitory—true profitability that attracts new entrants to the industry. Overall, the predictive power of accruals is better explained by product-market effects than by measurement error in accruals or diminishing returns from investment.     

Where do firms manage earnings?

Despite decades of research on how, why, and when companies manage earnings, there is a paucity of evidence about the geographic location of earnings management within multinational firms. In this study, we examine where companies manage earnings using a sample of 2,067 U.S. multinational firms from 1994 to 2009. We predict and find that firms with extensive foreign operations in weak rule of law countries have more foreign earnings management than companies with subsidiaries in locations where the rule of law is strong. We also find some evidence that profitable firms with extensive tax haven subsidiaries manage earnings more than other firms and that the earnings management is concentrated in foreign income. Apart from these results, we find that most earnings management takes place in domestic income, not foreign income.     

Discretionary accruals: signalling or earnings management in Australia?

We investigate the signalling effect of discretionary accruals (DAC). Although we find that discretionary accruals are insignificantly related to contemporaneous stock returns, we uncover that income‐increasing discretionary accruals of GAAP‐complying growth firms are significantly and positively related to contemporaneous stock returns. Furthermore, we find that this positive effect is stronger among firms with better corporate governance mechanisms, such as Board of Directors Independence, Audit Committee Independence and Large Shareholders’ Ownership. In addition to contemporaneous stock returns, we also find similar results with the future increase in dividends. Our findings are consistent with the argument that corporate governance can enhance the signalling effect of reported earnings of GAAP‐complying growth firms.     

Do auditors react to real earnings management?

Prior research has documented an association between audit effort and real earnings management [REM]. Specifically, audit report lags have been shown to be positively associated with REM. We investigate the auditor and firm characteristics underlying this association. Our results indicate that overall, REM is associated with longer abnormal audit report lags [ARLs]. We find, however, that this association is driven largely by non-accelerated filers. This result holds for both suspect firms (those firms just meeting earnings benchmarks) and non-suspect firms, for specialist as well as non-specialist auditors, and for profit as well as loss firms. Together our results indicate that when auditors are not constrained by the time pressure of accelerated filing, encountering REM is associated with greater audit effort. Our results may indicate, however, that with respect to accelerated filers, abnormal ARLs may be an imperfect proxy for additional effort. These results have implications for both future research and for the impact of accelerated filing deadlines on audit quality.     

How efficient ownership structure monitors income manipulation? Evidence of real earnings management among Malaysian firms

This study investigates income manipulation through real earnings management, by listed companies in Malaysia, prior to being officially designated as “financially distressed”, by this country’s stock exchange listed rules. The hypotheses relate to whether the degree of upwards real earnings management, conducted during the four-year period prior to financial distress, can be explained by ownership structure (measured with three variables: managerial ownership, institutional ownership and foreign ownership). Using a sample of 1180 firm-year observations of financially distressed companies, over the investigation period 2001–2011, the findings suggest that the degree of real earnings management is not associated with ownership by management or institutional investors. Conversely, the evidence indicates that foreign shareholders are able to constrain upwards real earnings management related to discretionary expenditure but not the operating cycle. This study contributes to the importance of diversity of ownership structures in monitoring income manipulation among firms.     

When and why do IPO firms manage earnings?

There is significant disagreement about whether, when, and why IPO firms manage earnings. We precisely identify the timing and motives behind earnings management by IPO firms. The period around an IPO is characterized by two events: the IPO itself and the lockup expiration. Both the raising of capital at the IPO and the exit by pre-IPO shareholders at lockup expiration create incentives for firms to manage earnings. To disentangle the effect of these events, we examine quarterly, rather than annual, abnormal accruals. We find no evidence of income-increasing earnings management before the IPO. However, IPO firms exhibit positive abnormal accruals in the quarter before and the quarter of the lockup expiration. Positive abnormal accruals are concentrated in less scrutinized firms and firms with high selling by pre-IPO shareholders. Moreover, we find that these accruals subsequently reverse and that such reversals contribute to long-run IPO underperformance.     

Earnings management in domestic versus multinational firms: discussion of “Where do firms manage earnings?”

Dyreng, Hanlon, and Maydew examine the geographical location of earnings management within US multinational firms. The paper addresses an interesting topic and partially fills a gap in the literature. This discussion presents additional empirical evidence on issues related to the research question raised by Dyreng et al. In particular, the discussion provides answers to the following preliminary questions: do US multinational firms manage earnings differently from domestic firms? If so, to what extent are they different? Surprisingly, these issues have been overlooked by prior studies. Indeed, the results below show that US multinational firms manage earnings less than domestic companies. The discussion also raises a number of additional questions on earnings management in multinational firms and calls for further research on the topic.     

Detailed management earnings forecasts: do analysts listen?

We provide archival evidence on how a particular type of supplementary information affects the credibility of management earnings forecasts. Managers often provide detailed forecasts of specific income statement line items to shed light on how they plan to achieve their bottom-line earnings targets. We assess the effect of this forecast disaggregation on the credibility of management earnings forecasts. Based on a relatively large hand-collected sample of 900 management earnings forecasts, we find that disaggregation increases analysts’ sensitivity to the news in managers’ earnings guidance, suggesting that analysts find the guidance more credible. More importantly, we identify several factors that influence this relation. First, disaggregation plays a more important role when earnings are otherwise more difficult to forecast. Second, disaggregation is more important after Regulation Fair Disclosure prohibited selective disclosure, especially for firms that were more affected because they had previously provided more private guidance. Finally, in contrast to common assertions in the prior literature, we find that, in more recent years, disaggregation matters more for guidance that conveys bad news. Managers as well as researchers should be interested in evidence suggesting that financial analysts find disaggregation especially helpful in contexts where managers’ credibility is particularly important.     

The impact of accruals and lines of business on analysts’ earnings forecast superiority

In this paper, we examine the linkage between analyst advantage (AA) (compared to the seasonal random walk model) in the prediction of quarterly earnings-per-share (EPS) and a broad set of economic determinants. Specifically, we employ a pooled cross-sectional time-series regression model where AA is linked to a set of firm-specific economic determinants that have been employed in extant work (e.g., Brown et al. in J Account Res 22:49?C67, 1987; Kross et al. in Account Rev 65:461?C476, 1990). We refine this set of independent variables by including a new variable (RATIODEV) based upon Sloan (Account Rev 71(3):289?C315, 1996) who documents that differential levels of accruals impact future earnings performance. This variable is particularly salient in explaining AA since analysts may be in a position to identify the permanent component of accruals via fundamental financial analysis. Additionally, we refine the measurement of lines of business??consistent with the reporting requirements of SFAS No. 131 relative to extant work that operationalized proxies for this variable based upon SFAS No. 14. Parameters for these aforementioned variables are significantly positively related to AA, consistent with theory.     

Use of benchmarks in predicting earnings management?

This study conducts multiple approaches to identify whether earnings benchmarks are an indicator for earnings management within the Australian market. We investigate firms reporting small positive earnings and small positive earnings changes, referred to as benchmark beaters. Accrual quality models, earnings distributions and earnings persistence measures are applied to identify whether benchmark beating firms are manipulating earnings. Our findings suggest that the small positive earnings benchmark attracts earnings managers. However, we do not identify any evidence to indicate that the positive earnings change benchmark is a signal for earnings management.     

How does competition affect real earnings management to meet or beat targets? Evidence from import tariff reductions

Targets provide incentives for earnings management, and a longstanding question is whether earnings management is undertaken opportunistically or to communicate private information about future firm value. To discriminate between these motivations, I follow analytical research showing that an increase in competition through a large decrease in tariffs disciplines managers and better aligns their interests with those of shareholders. Thus, if earnings management reflects managerial opportunism, then an increase in competition will decrease earnings management; and if it signals future performance expectations, then an increase in competition will increase earnings management. Consistent with earnings management indicating managerial opportunism, I show that an increase in competition decreases real earnings management to avoid reporting negative earnings or a negative change in earnings. In addition, by showing that the lessening of trade barriers through import tariff reductions reduces the use of real earnings management to meet or beat earnings targets, I provide evidence on the role of macroeconomic conditions as a determinant of earnings quality.     

How far can we trust earnings numbers? What research tells us about earnings management

The article reviews the recent academic research literature on earnings management (EM) with a view to identifying research themes and results of interest to users and preparers of financial statements, accounting standard setters, and others with responsibility for ensuring that companies provide financial information to shareholders that can be relied upon. Hopefully students of accounting with an interest in exploring the EM literature will find that the article provides a useful framework. The literature on this topic is vast, and it is not possible to cover every article in detail. I provide an impressionistic survey that highlights examples of specific research themes and methods that regularly appear in the literature. Most of the examples are chosen from the literature published since 2000, although I do also highlight a few methodological contributions that appeared earlier. It is inevitable that the selection of articles reflects to some extent my personal interests and biases (intentional or otherwise). Thus, I wish to acknowledge that I owe a very substantial intellectual debt to the insights and contributions of the many uncited authors of a literature that spans over 40 years in over 20 accounting and finance journals.     

How do auditors view managers’ voluntary disclosure strategy? The effect of earnings guidance on audit fees

The objective of this study is to examine the relation between attributes of earnings forecasts issued by managers and audit fees. Although there is an extensive literature on managers’ disclosure of earnings forecasts, there is a paucity of research on how auditors incorporate information from these voluntary disclosures. We find that the issuance of an annual or quarterly management earnings forecast in the prior period is positively associated with the current period audit fees. Our results indicate that on average, audit fees are higher by about 7% for firm-years associated with an annual forecast. Among the firms that issue earnings forecasts, we find no association between audit fees and likelihood of updating a previously issued earnings forecast, indicating that auditors do not view such behavior negatively. Further, we find audit fees to be positively associated with the error and the bias (or optimism) in the forecasts for annual forecasts but not for quarterly forecasts. Overall, these results suggest that management’s forecast behavior captures higher business risk for the auditor via greater risk of earnings management or litigation risk.     

Acquirers’ earnings management ahead of stock-for-stock bids in ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ markets

The accounting literature has found evidence that acquirers in stock-for-stock M&A have typically managed earnings upwards ahead of a bid. Other literatures have concluded that, when stock prices are high and rising, M&A is higher, more M&A is financed with stock, market sentiment and stockholders’ perceptions of information appear to change, and in these circumstances new (arbitrage) motivations for M&A emerge. This paper revisits earnings management ahead of M&A in the light of these findings, comparing experience in ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ markets. It finds that such earnings management is more pronounced in hot markets; that only in such markets are positive discretionary accruals commonly associated with positive abnormal returns on the announcement of earnings; and that in such markets – against the expectations from signalling theory – these positive returns are not reversed on announcement of a stock-for-stock bid. The results suggest that the economic benefits achieved by engaging in earnings management during hot markets are indeed significant: in hot markets, we estimate that on average share acquirers engage in working capital accrual management equivalent to over a third of the average acquirer’s return on total assets in that year; and that this earnings management is associated with increases in market value which are statistically and economically significant, enabling the bidder to secure control of the target with fewer shares.     

How and why do small firms manage interest rate risk?

Although small firms are particularly sensitive to interest rates and other shocks, empirical work on corporate risk management has focused instead on large public companies. This paper studies fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans to see how small firms manage their exposure to interest rate risk. Credit-constrained firms are found to match significantly more often with fixed-rate loans, consistent with prior research that shows the supply of credit shrinks during periods of rising interest rates. Banks originate a higher share of adjustable-rate loans than other lenders, ameliorating maturity mismatch and exposure to the lending channel of monetary policy. Time-series patterns in the fixed-rate share are consistent with recent evidence on debt market timing.     

Do foreign institutional investors monitor opportunistic managerial behaviour? Evidence from real earnings management

Employing a large sample of 13,860 firms in 41 economies from 2000 to 2017, we document that the ownership by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) is negatively associated with firms' real earnings management (REM) but unrelated to their accrual earnings management (AEM). We adopt a few identification strategies to tackle the endogeneity issues, including firm- and year-fixed effects regression, two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression, and difference-in-differences (DiD) estimation based on the passage of the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (JGTRRA). In addition, we show that the role of FIIs in curbing REM is achieved through the expertise channel and the monitoring channel. These results suggest that when facing disadvantages in curbing AEM, FIIs make the most of their monitoring strengths by curbing firms' REM, where they have both incentives and capabilities to monitor. Overall, this study highlights the important role of FIIs in monitoring opportunistic managerial behaviour.     

Does religiosity enhance the quality of management earnings forecasts?

This study investigates whether firms located in areas with higher levels of religiosity disclose higher-quality management earnings forecasts than do other firms. Using a US sample of 4,655 firm-year observations over the period 2001 to 2014, we find that firms headquartered in counties with higher proportions of religious adherents issue earnings forecasts that are less optimistically biased and that the effect of religiosity is concentrated in firms with weak monitoring mechanisms. We also find that religiosity mitigates pessimistic bias in management earnings forecasts, but only for those issued by firms operating in low litigation industries. This result suggests that when the litigation risk is high, both ethicality and risk aversion are at work and their competing effects likely offset each other. Additionally, we document that forecasts issued by firms in more religious areas trigger stronger stock price reactions than those issued by other firms and that the effect is limited to forecasts containing optimistic bias. Overall, our results show that religiosity enhances the quality of management earnings forecasts, but the effect varies based on different conditions.     

Connecting earnings management to the real World:What happens in the black box of the boardroom?

This British Accounting & Finance Association (BAFA) distinguished academic 2020 plenary address marries the researcher's two main research areas – financial reporting and corporate governance. Like Vivien Beattie (BAFA 2011 distinguished academic), the researcher commenced in the positivist tradition but was increasingly drawn to more qualitative, interdisciplinary perspectives, influencing the paper's positioning.“Accounting choice”, “income smoothing”, “earnings management”, and “earnings manipulation” are terms frequently used in the academic literature. This paper reviews these terms, highlighting the resonances and dissonances between them, and attempts to reconcile varied perspectives in the prior literature. The paper critiques taken-for-granted assumptions underlying this stream of research. The paper then examines prior earnings management research using alternative methodologies to deepen understanding of the four terms in praxis (best practice in practice). The paper reviews prior research on boards of directors using alternative methodologies to those adopted in mainstream corporate governance research, to provide a menu of opportunities to research earnings management inside the “black box” of the boardroom, including proposed research questions for future research. The paper concludes by considering the implications for policymakers and standard setters.     

Does confucianism influence corporate earnings management?

This paper investigates the effect of Confucianism on corporate earnings management. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2007 to 2017, we find that corporate earnings management is negatively associated with the popularity of Confucianism. Our findings also reveal that the effect of Confucianism is particularly strong among firms characterized with weaker internal control and external supervision or located in areas with lower level of marketization. Our findings shed important light on how culture improves the quality of financial reporting in emerging markets.