Measuring Welfare Changes and the Excess Burden of Taxation*

This paper examines methods used to evaluate the welfare effects of tax changes, with emphasis on the measurement problems involved. Welfare changes and excess burdens are defined, along with approximations. Aggregate measures, using a social welfare function, are examined. The special case of income taxation is then examined, leading to discussion of the marginal welfare cost of taxation and the marginal cost of funds. The measurement methods examined include the use and estimation of direct and indirect utility functions, along with the algebraic and numerical integration from estimated Marshallian demand functions to the compensated demands. The use of equivalent incomes to examine tax changes, using unit record data from household budget surveys, is then discussed.     

Ambiguous Social Welfare Effects of Price Regulation Under Imperfect Competition

Conventional wisdom is that a binding price ceiling increases output and so increases social welfare if imposed on an imperfectly competitive market. However, this paper shows that a price ceiling can be harmful to social welfare even though it increases industry output and consumer surplus. This model can be applied to the pharmaceutical industry under price control in many countries, e.g., U.K., Canada, Germany and Japan.     

旅游经济的福利效应研究进展

在国内外学者对旅游经济的福利效应研究基础上,对其理论基础、研究方法和研究案例进行全面分析,发现其理论基础主要源于福利经济学及国际贸易学的相关理论等。研究方法大致分两类,基于问卷的主观评价法,即价值评估方法,以及经济学的客观评价法,如一般均衡模型(GEM)。两类方法各有优缺点:价值评估方法间接获取福利,缺乏说服力,一般不宜采用;一般均衡模型相对科学,但建模复杂,需要综合考虑多种因素,对学者的个人素质要求较高,应用难度较大。研究视角主要集中在经济学领域,从旅游学角度出发的研究极度缺乏。研究案例较多,但利用GEM的研究案例相当少,国内研究更是不足。我国旅游业正值蓬勃发展,厘清旅游经济的福利效应,对旅游业可持续发展具有重要意义,因此将更先进的研究方法应用于旅游经济福利效应研究,具有迫切的必要性。     

后社会主义国家的福利部门改革：九条原则

Ⅰ.福利部门现状 在全世界范围内人们都已开始着手改革福利部门,或至少已开始讨论应如何进行这项改革①,另一方面,改变的进程在任何地方都是困难重重的.     

Welfare Reform and the Labour Supply of Lone Parents in Australia: A Natural Experiment Approach

Large shifts in the labour supply of lone parents in Australia were observed between 1986 and 1990. Changes in the observed characteristics of lone parents explain only a small portion of these shifts. Propensity score matching and difference-in-differences are used to estimate the effects of the substantial policy shifts implemented in 1987. Control groups are constructed from the sample of married mothers. Results suggest that the policy reforms caused a substantial increase in the employment of lone parents while causing a reduction in the hours of work among the workers.     

Downward Wage Rigidity in Europe: A New Flexible Parametric Approach and Empirical Results

Abstract. We suggest a new parametric approach to estimate the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity in ten European countries between 1995 and 2001. The database used throughout is the User Data Base of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). The proposed approach is based on the generalized hyperbolic distribution, which allows to model wage change distributions characterized by thick tales, skewness and leptokurtosis. Significant downward nominal wage rigidity is found in all countries under analysis, but the extent varies considerably across countries. Yearly estimates reveal increasing rigidity in Italy, Greece and Portugal, while rigidity is declining in Denmark and Belgium. The results imply that the costs of price stability differ substantially across Europe.     

The Aggregation of Climate Change Damages: a Welfare Theoretic Approach

The economic value of environmental goods is commonly determined using the concepts of willingness to pay (WTP) or willingness to accept (WTA). However, the WTP/WTA observed in different countries (or between individuals) will differ according to socio-economic characteristics, in particular income. This notion of differentiated values for otherwise identical goods (say, a given reduction in mortality risk) has been criticized as unethical, most recently in the context of the 'social cost' chapter of the IPCC Second Assessment Report. These critics argue that, being a function of income, WTP/WTA estimates reflect the unfairness in the current income distribution, and for equity reasons uniform per-unit values should therefore be applied across individuals and countries. This paper analyses the role of equity in the aggregation of climate change damage estimates, using basic tools of welfare economics. It shows one way of how WTP/WTA estimates can be corrected in aggregation if the underlying income distribution is considered unfair. It proposes that in the aggregation process individual estimates be weighted with an equity factor derived from the social welfare and utility functions. Equity weighting can significantly increase aggregate (global) damage figures, although some specifications of weighting functions also imply reduced estimates. The paper also shows that while the postulate of uniform per-unit values is compatible with a wide range of 'reasonable' utility and welfare specifications, there are also cases where the common-value notion is not compatible with defensible welfare concepts.     

Measuring Monetary Policy in Germany: A Structural Vector Error Correction Approach

Abstract. A structural vector error correction (SVEC) model is used to investigate several monetary policy issues. While being data-oriented the SVEC framework allows structural modeling of the short-run and long-run properties of the data. The statistical model is estimated with monthly German data for 1975–98 where a structural break is detected in 1984. After splitting the sample, three stable long-run relations are found in each subsample which can be interpreted in terms of a money-demand equation, a policy rule and a relation for real output, respectively. Since the cointegration restrictions imply a particular shape of the long-run covariance matrix this information can be used to distinguish between permanent and transitory innovations in the estimated system. Additional restrictions are introduced to identify a monetary policy shock.     

Measuring Technical Change Under Variable Returns to Scale: A Dual Approach

In this paper, a dual measure of technical change is developed. The measure does not require parametric specification or estimation of the underlying technology, nor the assumptions of constant returns to scale and perfect competition. Imposing these assumptions, the proposed measure is shown to be equivalent to Solow's productivity residual. Biases attributable to these assumptions are analysed.     

Re-evaluation of Welfare Changes during the Transition in Poland

The costs of shortages/rationing are not captured by standard consumer price indices. Thus the change in real GDP per capita is an over-estimate of welfare losses in transition economies. In this study virtual prices are used to calculate new cost of living indices, making it possible to construct more accurate pre-reform and post-reform welfare comparisons. The results for Poland using virtual prices show 62-84% decline in welfare over the transition 1987-92. This welfare loss is approximately one-third of the value obtained using actual prices.     

A Nonparametric Revealed Preference Approach to Measuring the Value of Environmental Quality

We develop an approach to valuing non-market goods using nonparametric revealed preference analysis. We show how nonparametric methods can also be used to bound the welfare effects of changes in the provision of a non-market good. Our main context is one in which the non-market good affects the marginal utility of consuming a related market good. This can also be framed as a shift in the taste for, or quality of, the market good. A systematic approach for incorporating quality/taste variation into a revealed preference framework for heterogeneous consumers is developed. This enables the recovery of the minimal variation in quality required to rationalise observed choices of related market goods. The variation in quality appears as a adjustment to the price for related market goods which then allows a revealed preference approach to bounding compensation measures of welfare effects to be applied.     

Effects of Unit-Based Garbage Pricing: A Differences-in-Differences Approach

Using a unique 10-year dataset of all 458 Dutch municipalities, we apply a differences-in-differences approach to estimate the effect of unit-based pricing on household waste quantities and recycling. Community-level studies of unit-based pricing typically do not include fixed effects at the local level. We find that failure to do so may substantially inflate the estimated price effect. We also find that unit-based pricing may be endogenous, and use instrumental variables to account for this. Our analysis shows that user fees depend on user fees in neighboring jurisdictions (policy interaction). Our estimate of the garbage reduction per $1 user fee is lower than any previous estimate bar one. The price effect depends on the pricing system: weight-based systems reduce garbage quantities more than volume-based systems. User fees increase recycling, especially of paper, but not nearly as much as they reduce garbage quantities. We find no evidence for waste tourism or illegal dumping.     

On the Aggregate Value of Recreational Activities: A Nested Price Index Approach Using Poisson Demand Systems

An important consideration in the development ofregulations and policies that administer naturalresources in an area is the value of the non-marketactivities supported by those lands. Little attentionhas been paid to the aggregate value of largegeographic areas. This analysis builds autility-theoretic price index and utilizes this indexto estimate an aggregate Poisson demand to valuebackcountry recreational hiking opportunities innorthern California.     

FDI Effects on National Competitiveness: A Cluster Approach

Despite the close relationship between the activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the competitiveness of host countries, few studies have linked these two subjects from a global perspective. Combining Porter’s approach and the work accomplished by international business economists provides a powerful analytical tool with which to review the recent empirical and theoretical literature on the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on national competitiveness. The contention is that FDI can indeed be a source of competitiveness but that previous studies have neglected the role of location, in particular the role of clustering on the absorptive capacity of the host State. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive conceptual framework for assessing the effects of FDI on competitiveness to guide policy-makers as well as further research. This study is part of the research project entitled, “Multilateral Rules on Trade and Investment,” supported by the NCCR project “International Trade Regulation: From Fragmentation to Coherence,” World Trade Institute (WTI), Berne.     

应对资产价格波动的最优货币规则研究——基于福利损失函数的实证分析

通过构建最优货币政策模型对中国货币政策进行的实证检验,发现中国的货币政策主要以盯住通货膨胀为主要目标,同时关注产出的变化,但对股票价格波动的变化并没有给予充分的关注。而通过中国预设货币政策操作框架下对股票价格波动不同反应状况的分析,发现货币政策对资产价格赋予较小权重时,中央银行的福利损失函数将会有所改善;如果继续加大对资产价格干预的权重,则会导致中央银行福利损失函数的迅速恶化。因此可以认为,中央银行还不适宜对资产价格进行过度的关注,只适合在关注通胀和产出的基础上,对资产价格给予适度的关注。     

Measuring Household Welfare: Problems and Pitfalls with Household Surveys in Central Asia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Measurement of Changes in Economic Welfare in India: 1970–2001

This paper provides time series estimates of measures of economic welfare, inequality, decile class specific true cost of living index and poverty measures based on 20 rounds of National Sample Survey data for the period 1970–2001. It has estimated piece-wise Linear Expenditure System (LES) for very poor, moderately poor, non-poor low and non-poor high expenditure groups for rural as well as urban areas. Money metric utility for deciles are derived from the money metric utility function and social welfare index is constructed by aggregating metric utility of the deciles. Using social welfare index as well as real per capita consumption, the paper analyses the changes in economic welfare over the three decades. Using conventional measures, the paper analyses the changes in poverty and inequality during 1970–2001. The paper also provides estimates of the welfare effects of commodity prices.