The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks

We find that on average, an announcement of rising unemployment is good news for stocks during economic expansions and bad news during economic contractions. Unemployment news bundles three types of primitive information relevant for valuing stocks: information about future interest rates, the equity risk premium, and corporate earnings and dividends. The nature of the information bundle, and hence the relative importance of the three effects, changes over time depending on the state of the economy. For stocks as a group, information about interest rates dominates during expansions and information about future corporate dividends dominates during contractions.     

Is a Bond Rating Downgrade Bad News,Good News,or No News for Stockholders?

We examine the reaction of common stock returns to bond rating changes. While recent studies find a significant negative stock response to downgrades, we argue that this reaction should not be expected for all downgrades because: (1) some rating changes are anticipated by market participants and (2) downgrades because of an anticipated move to transfer wealth from bondholders to stockholders should be good news for stockholders. We find that downgrades associated with deteriorating financial prospects convey new negative information to the capital market, but that downgrades due to changes in firms' leverage do not.     

"九点"道出股市福音

种种迹象标明,若将国务院的“九点意见”视为中国证券市场发展史上的纲领性文件,似乎也并不为过。     

不良资产应该拿你怎么办?

中国的经济改革,以责任制始,银行业却是得信最晚的.迟至1998年下半年,国务院才下决心对国有商业银行的资产新老划断:以1995年底为界,此前所发生的不良资产从各家国有商业银行帐上切下来,各家分别凑起兵马,各自组成金融资产管理公司,进行清收和经营;此后所发生的,仍留在各家行.我国国有商业银行的责任制经营,实际上是以成立资产管理公司为标志而开始的.至于以产权明晰的现代企业制度为基础的市场化经营,实际上至今还没有开始.金融资产管理公司运行了两年,它到底是坏账工厂、垃圾回收站,还是中国投资银行的雏形?是是非非,外界众说纷纭.当此之际,当初设立金融资产管理公司的主要策划人之一,现任信达资产管理公司副总裁的石春贵先生有话要说.     

证券化：化解不良资产的有效途径

证券化已成为化解不良资产的重要途径。在我国，不良资产证券化已具备了基本条件。在具体操作中，信用升级、品种设计、二级市场建设是存在的重要问题。     

不良资产的处置方式及评估方法

不良资产评估应该以资产处置方式的确定为前提,采用适当的评估价值类型和方法.不良资产的重点和难点是对债务企业有关部门信息资料的搜集与核实.本文尝试对债权直接出售或置换、实物处置、并购重组、债转股、证券化及破产清算等处置情况下的评估方法进行探讨.     

Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies

Various theories have been proposed to explain momentum in stock returns. We test the gradual-information-diffusion model of Hong and Stein (1999) and establish three key results. First, once one moves past the very smallest stocks, the profitability of momentum strategies declines sharply with firm size. Second, holding size fixed, momentum strategies work better among stocks with low analyst coverage. Finally, the effect of analyst coverage is greater for stocks that are past losers than for past winners. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that firm-specific information, especially negative information, diffuses only gradually across the investing public.     

八仙过海各显神通--部分城市商业银行解决不良资产初见成效

8月底,在酷暑未退的南京,全国城市商业银行的董事长、行长参加了第四届城市商业银行论坛.比南京闷热的天气更让人感觉到压力的是城市商业银行的不良资产问题.所以在不良资产处置的分论坛上,各个商业银行掌舵人的踊跃发言和争论,就丝毫不让人惊奇了.为解决不良资产,各个商业银行"八仙过海,各显神通".论坛上,成功者介绍了他们的经验.     

Depositors Discipline through Interest Costs during Good and Bad Times: the Role of the Guarantor of Last Resort<Superscript>1</Superscript>

We investigate whether the public sector’s ability as the guarantor of last resort (GLR) to help banks or to guarantee banks’ liabilities affects the sensitivity of interest costs to bank fundamentals. We use a global bank sample and find that the sensitivity is an increasing function of GLR risk, regardless of the method applied to describe this risk. Therefore, our results indicate that increased levels of GLR risk might foster market monitoring by depositors.     

Sponsoring departments: Good intentions,poor performance

The National Audit Act does not provide quite the role for the Comptroller & Auditor General that the original St John Stevas bill envisaged. Nevertheless, his recent investigation of the methods used by Departments to monitor and control the industries for which they are responsible shows that even his restricted remit can carry him into some hitherto unexplored areas. In the first report of this kind, covering the Departments of Energy, Industry, and Transport, Gordon Downey concentrated on the limited question of how well the system of control based on the 1978 White Paper was actually working.

As David Heald and David Steel argue in PUBLIC MONEY, June 1981, that system has come to be dominated by the essentially short‐run control mechanism, external financing limits. Not surprisingly, therefore, the investigation concentrated heavily on that. What it reveals is just how elastic this system of control is and just how weak a grip it affords Departments over what the industries actually do.     

破产重整在银行不良资产处置中的利弊

如何处置银行的不良资产并防范信贷风险,已经成为一个世界性的热点问题.中国银行业由于受到经济政策,法制环境,以及自身经营等多方面因素影响,也存在相当数量的不良资产并仍在继续产生和积累,如果不能及时处置,就有可能孕育成较大的金融风险,影响国民经济的健康发展.因此,积极探索有效的不良资产处置途径,提高资产回收率,减少坏账损失,防范金融风险是当前中国各类商业银行亟待解决的重大课题.但长期以来,我国银行不良资产处置方式比较单一,除债转股这一特殊手段和传统的催收、诉讼、拍卖、清算等手段外,几乎没有更为有效的处置方式.     

政策性银行不良资产的形成及化解

针对我国政策性银行不良资产率过高的现状,要从分析不良资产形成的原因出发,寻求化解的措施和手段。     

Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather

Psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood. This paper examines the relationship between morning sunshine in the city of a country's leading stock exchange and daily market index returns across 26 countries from 1982 to 1997. Sunshine is strongly significantly correlated with stock returns. After controlling for sunshine, rain and snow are unrelated to returns. Substantial use of weather‐based strategies was optimal for a trader with very low transactions costs. However, because these strategies involve frequent trades, fairly modest costs eliminate the gains. These findings are difficult to reconcile with fully rational price setting.     

Good news, bad news and rating announcements: An empirical investigation

In this paper we employ a new approach to test the contribution of information in rating announcements. This is the first study to test and corroborate how the CDS market responds to rating actions after controlling for the presence of concurrent public and private information. We show that since the clustering of rating announcements characterizes economically significant developments, the common practice of using “uncontaminated” samples underestimates market response. As in previous studies, we find that the market response to bad news is stronger than to good news. Nevertheless, bad news and negative rating announcements tend to cluster. Therefore, the residual contribution of negative rating announcements is small and in some cases insignificant. Positive rating announcements are less frequent and less clustered, though their residual contribution is still significant.     

海南省商业银行新增不良贷款形成原因及治理对策

本从政府、企业、银行三个方面分析了近年来海南省商业银行新增不良贷款形成的原因,并有针对性地提出了七条治理对策。     

议国有银行不良贷款治理

入世后，居高不下的不良贷款率成为影响我国国有银行与西方银行平等竞争的沉重包袱，也是影响国有银行和国际接轨的一个“瓶颈”，为尽快治理不良贷款，对西方银行的一些经实践证明的行之有效的措施可大胆采用，实行业务创新。     

小微企业风险测度、不良容忍度及其风险控制研究

本文以违约概率为小微企业风险的测度标准,建立了基于财务与非财务因素的小微企业风险计量模型。计量结果表明:除流动比率等少数指标外,大部分财务指标对判断小微企业违约概率不具有显著性;非财务因素中,反映小微企业资金状况的存贷比率指标具有较高的显著性,这说明现阶段部分商业银行在小微企业审查审批和贷后管理过程中将小微企业资金结算情况作为风险评价的重要依据,具有一定的科学性和准确性;小微企业的下游客户集中程度对判断小微企业违约概率也有较大的显著性,这说明小微企业的销售渠道是评价小微企业风险程度的重要要素。