我国铁路产业财务可持续：一个基于结构方程的分析

我国铁路建设所需的投资巨大,财务上已经形成了大量的债务性负担.为了实现我国铁路行业的财务可持续,首先要对影响国家铁路集团财务可持续的原因进行充分了解.以治理理论为核心,综合考虑多方面因素分析了中国国家铁路集团有限公司的财务可持续影响因素,通过问卷调查搜集数据,使用解释结构方程模型理清铁路负债的形成路径.结果表明:国家铁路集团的财务可持续是一个市场治理、社会治理、政府治理因素综合影响的结果,其中政府治理因素处于主导地位.建议化解铁路产业存量债务,构建铁路产业的公益性运输补贴机制,推进灵活票制票价实施等.     

A two-stage technology foresight model with system dynamics simulation and its application in the Chinese ICT industry

Technology foresight is a process that identifies the critical technologies a country or industry needs to develop in order to shape a desired future. In this paper, a two-stage technology foresight approach is proposed. During the first stage, critical technologies are identified and evaluated by nationwide experts through Delphi surveys. In the second stage, a system dynamics simulation model is used to estimate how critical parameter values are likely to impact the attainment of foresight goals. A detailed illustration of this two-stage process is provided by a technology foresight case study in the Chinese information and communication technologies (ICT) industry. Because it was identified by the first-stage Delphi method as a critical technology, the diffusion of 4th generation wireless telecommunication technology (4G) was simulated, and experimentation was conducted. Suggestions are provided regarding how the Chinese information industry would need to expand the IP network infrastructure in order to support technology foresight goals under different scenarios.     

铁路产业投资基金：控股权、 收益权与制度补偿

本文研究了铁路产业投资基金有关控股权、收益权与制度补偿等问题，运用实证分析法，对铁路投融资模式的选择及未来融资能力进行了探讨。本文的结论认为，铁路现有的投融资能力已难以支撑铁路大规模的建设需要，设立铁路产业投资基金势在必行。铁路行业的社会公益性、产权的单一性以及管理体制改革的滞后性，使得铁路产业投资基金具有一定的特殊性。发展铁路产业投资基金，首先需要优化基金的控股权，并通过相应的制度性补偿破解基金的收益瓶颈，实现以少量铁路资金带动数倍于己的社会资本投资铁路项目建设的目标。     

试析中国铁路行业竞争机制的引入

中国的铁路行业长期实行的是政府直接投资、垄断经营的规制体制,但是由于规制体制的不健全以及规制机构和被规制企业之间的信息不对称,使得该行业存在着社会福利损失、政府规制失灵等问题。在技术进步、需求增长、管理成本上升、替代性竞争存在的情况下,铁路行业引入竞争机制成为可能。区分自然垄断业务和非自然垄断业务,实现＂网运分离＂则是中国铁路行业引入竞争机制的必由之路。     

既有线路施工安全风险源故障树识别分析

随着我国铁路行业的快速发展,关于铁路行业的施工安全措施不断地完善,在既有线路施工中发生的安全事故也越来越频繁,如何识别铁路施工企业施工过程安全风险源成为建立既有线路施工安全风险管理体系和预防施工纠纷发生的核心问题。对于既有线路施工安全风险源的识别,运用故障树法的定性与定量相结合评价分析,兼顾主客观赋权的优点进行多目标的分析评价,进而提高评价结果的准确性。实例证明通过故障树法FTA定性定量分析评价,可以更精确、全面和细致的确定施工企业法律风险源的分析识别。     

Neither market nor hierarchy—coordination costs in the allocation of track capacity in the Swedish railway network

Transaction costs have been an issue since the advent of the deregulation of the European railway markets in the 1990s. Transaction cost economics received renewed attention in research on the deregulated railway markets in the EU after the publications of two influential reports in the early 2010s. In this article, we develop a model that enables classification and measurement of transaction costs and other coordination costs in deregulated markets. This model is then used to analyze the costs of path allocation in the Swedish railway sector and to compare the results with findings in previous research. We also discuss the economic rationale of the distribution of coordination costs among the involved parties. Our key empirical findings are that the total coordination costs in the Swedish market-mimicking path allocation process are as low as or lower than the most cost-efficient market coordination processes studied in railway markets, and that the state administrations take on nearly all the coordination costs in order to minimize the effects of opportunism, rent-seeking and information impactedness. Another finding is that the size of the coordination costs found by different studies seems to be dependent on whether a bottom-up or a top-down approach is used.     

基于TCP范式的铁路工程项目技术创新实现模型研究

在大规模铁路建设中,亟需加深对技术创新实现规律的研究。以铁路工程项目技术创新成功经验和特点为基础,分析技术创新实现的关键影响因素,提出技术创新实现的TCP范式,构建基于TCP范式的铁路工程项目技术创新实现模型,并辅以实证研究,以期促进铁路工程项目技术创新的有效开展和效率的进一步提升。     

Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis.     

Trading Hot-Air. The Influence of Permit Allocation Rules,Market Power and the US Withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol

After the conferences in Bonn and Marrakech, it is likely that international emissions trading will be realized in the near future. Major influences on the permit market␣are the institutional detail, the participation structure and the treatment of hot-air. Different scenarios not only differ in their implications for the demand and supply of permits and thus the permit price, but also in their allocative effects. In this paper we discuss likely the institutional designs for permit allocation in the hot-air economies and the use of market power and quantify the resulting effects by using the computable general equilibrium model DART. It turns out that the amount of hot-air supplied will be small if hot-air economies cooperate in their decisions. Under welfare maximization, more hot-airis supplied than in the case where governments try to maximize revenues from permit sales.     

Future prospects of alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland—Constructing scenarios with quantitative and qualitative Delphi data

In this paper, the potential of bioenergy production in agriculture (preferred and probable futures) is scrutinised using the Delphi method. We present a case of northern possibilities to utilise renewable energy sources within agriculture in a form of alternative bioenergy scenarios. Altogether 20 experts participated in the Delphi process which outlines the future of bioenergy production in Finland. The first round of the Delphi study was carried out by semi-structured interviews and the second feedback round by means of a mail questionnaire. Background information of key variables was presented to the panellists who responded with their views on developments between 2004 and 2025. Alternative scenarios were then constructed from these dimensions with cluster analysis in line with the Disaggregative Policy Delphi (DPD) approach. Quantitative statements were complemented with the experts' argumentation. Five scenarios were constructed: 1) Renewable prosperity, 2) Incremental change, 3) Vision of sun, wind and wood, 4) Let's burn it all, and 5) Flood of waterpower. After the Delphi rounds, a dialogue seminar for the agri-technology experts and policy-makers was organised. These results bring to the table an agri-food technology expert community view of the future directions for Finnish agro-bioenergy use.     

"绿色铁路"基础理论研究及其评价指标体系的建立

为了实现我国铁路设计、修建、运营和管理的可持续发展,本文提出了"绿色铁路"的概念和内涵,并建立了我国绿色铁路评价指标体系。通过运用模糊评价法对大理丽江铁路进行了绿色铁路评价的,表明绿色铁路评价指标体系的建立和运用是客观可行的。     

The simple macroeconomics of an oil-dependent economy

This paper constructs and analyzes a simple macrodynamic model of a small economy that is completely dependent upon OPEC for oil imports. The impact and dynamic behavior of wages, prices, output and exchange rates is analyzed under several alternative scenarios. Initially, it is assumed that oil is denominated in dollars and the consequences of an increase in oil prices are investigated under a system of free floating. In later sections, the effects of this disturbance are re-examined under various kinds of ‘managed float’ systems.     

China Railway Informalization System Research Based on Reengineering

Consulting concepts of business process reengineering of modem enterprises and according to networked industry characteristics of railway, this article analyzes restructuring experience modes of foreign railway, probes into the trend of China railway restructure, and makes it clear that railway should set up modem enterprise systems by focusing on transport as major trade. As a result, the railway informalization system shall be guided by marketing, aiming at improving the operation efficiency and management benefits, having priority in passenger and goods marketing system development. Central control and safeguarding systems should be emphasized in construction and railway business management systems shall be broueht about.     

区域物流系统与经济增长的动态耦合机理与实证仿真

采用系统动力学的方法对区域物流系统与区域经济增长之间的动态关联关系及耦合结构进行模型设计和仿真实证,分析了其三大作用子系统及多重嵌套反馈回路,结合天津滨海新区案例,模拟了自适应、物流系统适度超前和其它产业优先三种发展模式下的协同演化路径。结果表明二者存在自适应调节机制,物流适度超前短期内会略微减缓区域经济增速,但长期则能使区域经济增速显著提升。     

基于生产函数的铁路移动装备投资效益评价

基于修正的生产函数构建了铁路移动装备投资效益评价模型,测算了1995—2009年我国铁路移动装备的投资效益。得出如下结论:用于购置铁路移动装备的资金每增加1%,铁路运输效益产出将增加9.6%;铁路移动装备年均新增投入占铁路资本投入总额的11.16%,其贡献率占铁路资本贡献率总额的26.38%,因此其扩张性贡献效益明显。     

Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization

This paper presents an overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios that form the analytical backbone for other contributions to this Special Issue. We first describe the motivation behind this scenario exercise and introduce the main scenario features and characteristics, in both qualitative and quantitative terms. Altogether, we analyze three ‘baseline’ scenarios of different socio-economic and technological developments that are assumed not to include any explicit climate policies. We then impose a range of climate stabilization targets on these baseline scenarios and analyze in detail the feasibility, costs and uncertainties of meeting a range of different climate stabilization targets in accordance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The scenarios were developed by the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework that encompasses detailed representations of the principal GHG-emitting sectors—energy, industry, agriculture, and forestry. The main analytical findings from our analysis focus on the implications of salient uncertainties (associated with scenario baselines and stabilization targets), on feasibility and costs of climate stabilization efforts, and on the choice of appropriate portfolios of emissions abatement measures. We further analyze individual technological options with regards to their aggregated cumulative contribution toward emissions mitigation during the 21st century as well as their deployment over time. Our results illustrate that the energy sector will remain by far the largest source of GHG emissions and hence remain the prime target of emissions reduction. Ultimately, this may lead to a complete restructuring of the global energy system. Climate mitigation could also significantly change the relative economics of traditional versus new, more climate friendly products and services. This is especially the case within the energy system, which accounts for the largest share of emissions reductions, but it is also the case in the agriculture and forestry sectors, where emissions reduction and sink enhancement measures are relatively more modest.     

A case study of long-term Delphi accuracy

We evaluated the long-term accuracy of predictions from a Delphic poll of the future of the mental health profession [1]. Six hundred participants provided predictions about the likely occurrence and probable time courses for 18 scenarios that could possibly have occurred over the 30-year interval between 1981 to present. Each of the panelists was polled twice with distributional feedback from the first poll provided on the second poll questionnaires. The data from the second polling was used to make predictions regarding the future of various issues that may have affected the mental health profession over the forecast interval. It has now been 30 years since the original poll was conducted; the purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the original group predictions. Results indicated that the Delphi panelists correctly predicted the occurrence of 14/18 scenarios. For those scenarios that did occur, the time course predictions were accurate within approximately 1-5 years.     

Bio-economic modeling of water quality improvements using a dynamic applied general equilibrium approach

An integrated bio-economic model is developed to assess the impacts of pollution reduction policies on water quality and the economy. Emission levels of economic activities to water are determined based on existing environmental accounts. These emission levels are built into a dynamic economic model for the Dutch economy and subsequently coupled to a national water quality model. The modular approach has the advantage that the impacts on the economy and water quality are evaluated simultaneously, but each within their own domain based on the appropriate scale and level of detail. The dynamic nature of the economic model allows us to also evaluate a derogated water policy as foreseen in the European Water Framework Directive. The indirect costs of different water quality improvement policy scenarios are at least as high as the direct costs related to investments in pollution abatement technology. The stricter the policy scenario, the more important the role of economic adjustment and restructuring mechanisms at the macro-economic level. Significant water quality improvements can be achieved through stringent domestic emission reductions. However, reaching water quality standards is highly dependent on water quality improvement policy in surrounding river basin countries and climate change.     

铁路重载运输组织的规模经济性分析模型

本文基于经济学理论构建了铁路重载运输规模经济度量模型,认为当重载列车规模经济度大于普通列车,且大于等于1时,铁路重载运输和铁路普通运输在现有运输条件下都具有规模经济效益,且前者大于后者;当重载列车规模经济度大于普通列车,且前者大于1,后者小于等于1时,铁路重载运输在现有运输条件下具有规模经济效益,而铁路普通运输在现有运输条件下不具有规模经济效益或规模经济效益不变;当重载列车规模经济度大于普通列车,且都小于等于1时,铁路重载运输和普通运输都不具有规模经济效益,但相对而言,前者效益大于后者;当重载列车规模经济度小于等于普通列车,且后者大于等于1时,铁路重载运输和铁路普通运输在现有运输条件下都具有规模经济效益,但前者小于后者;当重载列车规模经济度小于等于普通列车,且前者小于等于1、后者大于1时,铁路普通运输具有规模经济效益,而重载运输不具有规模经济效益或规模经济效益不变;当重载列车规模经济度小于等于普通列车,且后者小于等于1时,铁路重载运输和普通运输都不具有规模经济效益,但普通运输的经济效益要比重载运输要好,其中前三种情况应该提倡重载运输;后三种情况应该组织普通运输。     

Disaggregative policy Delphi: Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation

A critical phase of scenario making is the choosing of scenarios. In the worst case, a futures researcher creates scenarios according to his/her subjective views and cannot see the real quality of the study material. Oversimplification is a typical example of this kind of bias. In this study, an attempt towards a more data sensitive method was made using Finnish transport policy as an example. A disaggregative Delphi method as opposed to traditional consensual Delphi was applied. The article summarises eight Delphi pitfalls and gives an example how to avoid them. A two-rounded disaggregative Delphi was conducted, the panelists being representatives of interest groups in the traffic sector. Panelists were shown the past development of three correlating key variables in Finland in 1970-1996: GDP, road traffic volume and the carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic. The panelists were invited to give estimates of their organisation to the probable and the preferable futures of the key variables for 1997-2025. They were also asked to give qualitative and quantitative arguments of why and the policy instruments of how their image of the future would occur. The first round data were collected by a fairly open questionnaire and the second round data by a fairly structured interview. The responses of the quantitative three key variables were grouped in a disaggregative way by cluster analysis. The clusters were complemented with respective qualitative arguments in order to form wider scenarios. This offers a relevance to decision-making not afforded by a nonsystematic approach. Of course, there are some problems of cluster analysis used in this way: The interviews revealed that quantitatively similar future images produced by the panelists occasionally had different kind of qualitative background theory. Also, cluster analysis cannot ultimately decide the number of scenarios, being a choice of the researcher. Cluster analysis makes the choice well argued, however.