Trade and agroindustrialization in developing countries: trends and policy impacts

There have been important changes in the international trade of processed and high-value added food products from developing countries over the past several decades. One of them has been the emergence of oilseeds and fruits and vegetables, replacing traditional products such as sugar, coffee, and cocoa as the main exports from developing countries. Another trend has been the collapse of African agroindustrial exports and the increase of exports from Asia. The paper highlights key trends, and explores possible reasons for the trends, focusing on trade policies in less-developed countries (LDCs) and developed countries (DCs). The paper argues that national trade policies and other economic policies appear to have been relatively supportive of agroindustrial production and exports in Asia. In contrast, policies have had more mixed effects in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and seem to have been just one component in a larger array of forces inhibiting economic development in Africa. The performance of agroindustrial production and exports from LDCs may be now more dependent than ever on the completion of reforms in the agricultural trade policies of DCs. For Africa, however, a more supportive international environment and better macroeconomic and trade policies will not be enough to ensure a thriving agroindustrial sector within a broader process of economic development until military confrontations stop.     

Impact and implications of price policy and land degradation on agricultural growth in developing countries

In many developing countries, a high proportion of the population resides and works in rural areas. Agriculture is the dominant sector in rural areas and has the greatest concentration of poverty: landless workers, small tenant farmers, and small farm owners. Thus, any development strategy that is directed towards increasing employment and alleviating a country's hunger must concentrate on sustainable agricultural growth. Historically, economic development in most countries has been based on exploitation of natural resources, particularly land resources. Soil erosion and land degradation have been serious worldwide. Due to reasons such as high population pressure on land and limited fossil energy supplies, land degradation is generally more serious in the developing world. Empirical studies show that soil erosion and degradation of agricultural land not only decrease the land productivity but they can also result in major downstream or off-site damage which may be several times that of on-site damage. In promoting industrialization, governments of many developing countries adopt a package of price and other policies that reduce agricultural production incentives and encourage a flow of resources out of agriculture. Increasing evidence shows that these policies cause a substantial efficiency or social welfare loss, and a great loss in foreign exchange earnings. In addition, a World Bank study on the effect of price distortions on economic growth rates concluded that neither rich resource endowments, nor a high stage of economic development, nor privatization are able to make up the adverse effects caused by high price distortions. This analysis is primarily concerned with identifying the factors that determine the agricultural production growth rate and in testing the effects these factors have on agricultural growth in developing countries. Specifically, this study involves statistical estimation of an aggregate agricultural growth function based on cross-country data for 28 developing countries. Special attention is devoted to land degradation and agricultural pricing policy, and to the policy implications resulting from the effects these variables have on agricultural and food production growth. The overall results of this study show that price distortions in the economy and land degradation had statistically significant negative impacts while the change in arable and permanent land was positively related to the growth of agricultural production and food production in 28 developing countries from 1971 to 1980. These results emphasize the importance of ‘getting prices right’ and implementation of sustainable land and water management practices if future growth in food and agricultural output is to be realized and sustained in developing countries.     

Trade and agricultural development in the 1980s and the challenges for the 1990s: Asia

Asian developing countries have had varying experiences in trade and agricultural development in the 1980s, attributable in part to their differing stages of economic development and structural characteristics. Other important influences relate to the external economic environment and the policy choices made by their governments not only during the period but also in the preceding decade. The achievements of Asian developing countries under the adverse external conditions of the 1980s are discussed in terms of their macrocconomic and agricultural growth, the commodity structure of agricultural growth, their food production and trade, the expansion and diversification of their agricultural exports, and the policy and nonpolicy factors affecting them. Special attention is given to the role of policy reforms implemented in China and the South Asian countries, following similar policy developments in Northeast and Southeast Asia in the 1960s and 1970s, toward greater openness in their trade regime and increased private-sector participation in the economy. These reforms have contributed to the observed acceleration in gup , agricultural, and export growth in the 1980s. However, macroeconomic imbalances have emerged that threaten the sustainability of economic liberalization in those countries. The major challenges for the 1990s also differ among the Asian developing countries. In the industrially advanced Northeast economies of Taiwan and South Korea, the primary need is to ease the transition of the remaining rural population as farm incomes continue to fall and workers move to industrial and service activities. This challenge has to be addressed in the context of growing external pressure to further open their domestic market for agricultural imports. Among the Southeast and South Asian countries, there is a need to reduce the existing policy biases against agriculture, particularly against export crop production. Moreover, China and the South Asian countries face the additional challenges of continuing to deregulate their trade regime and internal markets, and of promoting macroeconomic stability. Despite the external trend recently toward regionalism, Asian developing countries generally seem committed to an open trading system, on which in fact their past impressive economic performance has been predicated. An important challenge for them in the 1990s is to play an active role in arresting and reversing any protectionist tendencies arising from the formation of regional trading blocs and to support multilateral initiatives such as the Uruguay Round that promote global trade liberalization.     

International trade and agricultural development in developing countries: Significance of the Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations

Liberalization of world trade in agricultural products ranks high on the agenda of the Uruguay Round. After a period of more than six years, however, the negotiations have not been concluded. Nevertheless, an outcome seems to be in sight. The agreement will most likely not result in a move to freer trade. It seems that domestic policies will become even more regulative than in the past in an attempt to cut exportable surpluses and to ease trade tensions among the main exporting nations. This paper explores possible impacts of the GATT Round on agricultural development in developing countries. Agricultural development is more than only growth in agricultural production or productivity. However, it is argued in the paper that other variables which also indicate agricultural development are often closely correlated with growth in production and productivity. Trade in agricultural products is not always an engine for agricultural development. If internal divergences are not accounted for by appropriate domestic policies, trade may be even harmful to agricultural development. Hence, empirical research based on cross-country analysis does not provide a clear answer about the role of trade for development. Past policies in industrialized countries have most likely had a negative effect on developing countries as a group; however, the effects differ widely across countries. Liberalization policies in industrialized countries would not just reverse these negative effects for developing countries. Price reduction in industrialized countries may not result in the often-cited production decline in the short term. Present X-inefficiency in agriculture will be reduced by liberalization, leading to an outward shift of the supply curve. Hence, liberalization may not lead to higher world market prices for temperate-zone products in the short and medium term. Apart from this, empirical models differ widely in the price effects they predict. The expected outcome of the Uruguay Round – increased regulation of domestic policies – is likely both more negative for developing countries than past protectionist policies and worse than an overall liberalization. World market prices will increase, uncertainty and instability can be expected to grow, and food aid may become less available. There will be a need to react to these challenges with measures on the international and national level. Initiatives to deal with food crises in developing countries and to stimulate liberalization in developing countries should be considered. Finally, developing countries should be made aware that their own domestic policies have a much greater economic impact than policies in other countries, even if the latter are as protectionist as current agricultural policies in the industrialized world.     

Endogenous institutional innovation and agroindustrialization on the Peruvian coast

This paper presents an analysis of endogenous institutional innovations that have recently emerged in the agroindustrial zone of Chincha, on the coast of Peru. These innovations include: (1) contracts between agroindustrial firms and large farmers, introduced by the firms themselves to assure timely delivery and compliance with strict requirements implied by the emerging demanding quality and safety standards for agro‐export of processed asparagus; (2) management services exchanged for labor supervision and land collateral in share tenancy contracts between a management company and “farmer companies” of small cotton farmers. These contracts introduced by the management company illustrate those described theoretically by Eswaran and Kotwal [Am. Econ. Rev. 75 (3), 352–367]. The nature and importance of these institutional changes are twofold: (1) They were induced institutional innovations driven by the requirements of agroindustrialization itself. (2) Together they had ambiguous employment and income impacts (tending to the negative). On the one hand, the emergence of asparagus and firm‐farm contracts reduced employment through exclusion of small farms and shifts to capital‐intensive crops. On the other hand, the reinforcement of smallholder cotton and the emergence of farmer companies increased employment and income of smallholders. The institutional innovation allowed them to reduce risk and increase profits and thus access some of the benefits of agroindustrialization and globalization. While processing firm‐farm contracts are common in Peru, as is the presence of NGOs bringing subsidized credit, the private management firm innovation is rare and new in Peru and apparently also in the region, and of great interest. In fact, policymakers and NGOs have recently discovered that this innovation is taking place and are asking hard questions about whether this innovation can and will be diffused. The interest in the private for‐profit institutional change is sharpened by growing doubts about how economically sustainable and widespread a response NGO help can be to small farmers in maintaining their participation in income‐enhancing agroindustrialization. Moreover, with changes in land laws and markets the fluidity of the situation is apparent, with agroindustrial firms even starting to ask themselves whether contracts with large farms are necessary and best.     

Preface

The paper examines the main issues surrounding distributional effects in the domains of natural resource management and land policies, agricultural technology and research policies, agricultural market and trade policies, and consumer‐oriented policies, including standards, subsidies, and labeling. Agriculture is drifting into an ever more drastic bifurcation at a global level and within many countries. Correcting that bifurcation will require large investments in rural areas and rural people, in institutions, and in information and biological technologies accessible by the poor in the world's smallholder sector. Large and growing national and international inequalities related to agriculture and rural areas threaten peace, growth, and sustainable development.     

The highly variable economic performance of European agriculture

The successive reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the enlargements of the European Union (EU) and the impacts of climate change have amplified the diversity of European agriculture. These rapid changes have resulted in the intensification of agricultural activities in some regions, while they have led to the marginalization of agriculture and its eventual abandonment in others. The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors that are behind the differential performance of agriculture across the EU-27 countries. Ward's, k-means and two-step clustering methods were used to classify European agriculture based on gross-value-added farm, land and labour productivity indicators. Significant differences were revealed between the Northern-Central counties and the continental peripheries (Mediterranean, Eastern, Northern Scandinavian). An exact logistic regression model was used to analyse the factors behind this differential performance. Agricultural sectors characterized by a young and better trained farm population are more likely to attain high economic performance. The odds to attain high economic performance are almost 9 times greater for countries with a highly trained farm population, namely, the Netherlands (72%) and Germany (69%), than for countries with poor farm training, while an ageing farm population such as in Portugal (72%) and Bulgaria (66%) is 92% less likely to be high performing. The importance of investments in agriculture was also identified. The significance of the wheat yield variable highlights the importance of both environmental conditions and technical efficiency on farm economic performance. Similarly, countries with a high share of utilized agricultural land in less favoured areas, such as in the Mediterranean, are 94% less likely to attain high economic performance. The redesign of CAP direct payments between old and new member states after 2013 combined with the impacts of agricultural trade liberalization and climate change are expected to deteriorate the position of low performing agricultural sectors further.     

Agroindustrialization, globalization, and international development: An overview of issues, patterns, and determinants

This paper offers an overview for a special issue on agroindustrialization, globalization, and international development. It sets out a conceptual framework for understanding the links among these three broad phenomena and then discusses emerging issues and evidence concerning the factors conditioning agroindustrialization in developing countries and the subsequent effects on employment, poverty, and the natural environment. We conclude with a research agenda.     

Marketing reforms,market development and agricultural production in China

Chinese agricultural reforms have consisted of two transitional stages; initially decollectivization in the late 1970s followed by market liberalization in the mid 1980s. While much research has been conducted on the initial stage of increasing the incentives for farmers in collective cultivation, little quantitative evidence exists on how marketing reforms and the development of rural markets has affected agricultural production decisions. Using more accurate and disaggregated measures of the reform and market development components of liberalization than previous research, this study examined the effects of these liberalization policies on the agricultural production decisions in Shaanxi province. Procurement quota levels were found to be positively associated with the area planted to grain crops. Thus, quotas represent an effective way of increasing grain production and thereby also a means of achieving food self sufficiency which remains an important policy objective for the Chinese government. The involvement of state grain stations in free market grain trade and the expansion of rural markets has increased the area planted to the two potential cash crops, soybeans and wheat, and reduced the sown area of the Subsistence crop, corn reflecting the reduced need to plant corn as a self insurance mechanism for smoothing consumption. An increase in procurement quotas increases fertilizer use on grain crops, due to the policy of linking quotas to access to below-market priced fertilizer, but decreases the use of labor, which shifts to other more profitable enterprises. Market development has increased these off-farm employment opportunities and the earnings associated with them, thereby promoting the shift of labor out of crop production and increased the use of fertilizer which has also become more available.     

Does China’s ‘increasing versus decreasing balance’ land-restructuring policy restructure rural life? Evidence from Dongfan Village,Shaanxi Province

China’s ‘increasing versus decreasing balance’ land-restructuring policy is an innovative, top-down institutional land reform. Using the case study method, this study reviews the policy by examining its restructuring impacts on rural life. By deconstructing the procedures involved in the transfer of land development rights, we clarify that the economic benefits obtained from the trade of land development rights fund the entire project. Thus, the allocation of these economic benefits plays a pivotal role in restructuring rural living, production and ecology. We further analyze the case of Dongfan in Shaanxi Province, and our results show that approximately 60% of the economic benefit was used to demolish and re-construct settlements for peasants, while less than 25% was reserved for the development of rural industries. This distorted benefit allocation stemmed from the local governments’ pursuit of an increased quota for construction land use, which consequently generated weak impacts on restructuring rural life in Dongfan. Although their living conditions have improved, the outflow of peasants persists, thus producing a second round of village hollowing. The results of the policy indicate a need to pay more attention to rural industrial development in future programs and to examine the possibility for more radical land reforms in China, which could serve as a positive reference for village renewal and poverty alleviation in other countries.     

低效建设用地减量化对乡村转型发展的影响研究 ——基于上海市的扎根理论分析

研究目的：以上海市青浦区、浦东新区和金山区为例,剖析减量化对乡村转型发展的影响效果及机理,探索减量化实施对乡村转型发展的推动作用。研究方法：采用扎根理论的质性研究方法,通过深度访谈收集原始资料,经过三级编码过程,提炼总结减量化对乡村转型发展的影响。研究结果：资源配置是减量化对乡村转型发展的核心影响,产业发展和生态保护是减量化对乡村转型发展的直接影响,社会治理、民生保障和文化传承是减量化对乡村转型发展的间接影响。研究结论：注重减量化的规划引导,依托减量化政策大力推动产业升级、转移和生态文明战略的实施,完善落实减量化配套政策,构建合理的减量化指标使用方和供给方之间的增值收益补偿机制,以及合理保障村民和村集体的基本权益是实现减量化推进乡村转型发展目标的有效路径。     

Addressing climate change cause and effect on land cover and land use in South Asia

This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels.     

典型平原农区土地非农化对乡村发展影响的微观机理

深入探讨农区土地非农化对乡村发展的影响机理,是优化城乡土地资源配置、促进城乡一体化的重要途径。文章结合山东省禹城市与桓台县7个城郊型回迁社区、新型农村社区、传统型村庄的问卷调查与深度访谈资料,应用可行能力分析方法,从生态、社会及经济等3个维度构建了农户行为响应评价体系,分析了典型平原农区农户对土地非农化的行为响应特征,揭示了土地非农化对乡村发展的微观影响机理。研究表明:(1)土地非农化是城乡土地要素流动与空间重构的过程,对乡村发展的影响包括由城镇征地、村庄扩展与农村社区化产生的直接影响与城镇辐射的间接影响,提升或降低了农户行为主体的生态、社会及经济福利;(2)不同类型村庄对土地非农化直接影响的行为响应各不相同,其中,城镇征地对城郊型社区的影响最为剧烈,导致农户经济、生态福利的提升及社会福利的下降,传统型村庄受村庄扩展影响深远,降低了农户生态福利,新型农村社区具有较高的居住效用,有效提升了农户生态福利;(3)传统型村庄受土地非农化间接影响较强,经济福利得以显著提升,经济发达镇域辐射效应有效提升了新型农村社区农户的生态、经济及社会福利;(4)农户资源禀赋不同导致农户对土地非农化的行为响应存在差异;(5)适度推进城乡用地增减挂工程,调控城乡土地要素的合理流动。最后,该文提出了不同类型村庄的城乡一体化模式与调控路径。     

Impacts of feed ingredient subsidy removal and concurrent trade liberalization in Tunisia

This article summarizes findings from a recent agricultural policy study examining the impacts of trade liberalization and removal of feed ingredient subsidies in Tunisia. A linear programming model was used to simulate private sector response to these policy changes. Increased feedgrain prices result from subsidy removal but effects are lessened if subsidy removal is coupled with trade liberalization. Induced long-term effects are improved efficiency in production of feedgrains, feedgrain substitutes, and livestock.     

新一轮多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响

多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响一直存在很大争论。与以往的研究不同,本文应用一般均衡模型GTAP与局部均衡模型CAPSIM对接的方法测算新一轮多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响。研究显示,贸易自由化总体上对中国经济有正面的影响,只不过影响幅度很小,但农业部门会在多哈自由化中享受相对较大的贸易优势;从分产品的贸易和生产来看,粮食作物、果蔬等产品有正的影响,而对畜产品和食糖会有负的影响;虽然贸易自由化对中国农民收入来说只有很小的正面影响,但这种影响在不同收入组之间差别很大,其中高收入组农民要比低收入组农民受益更多,贸易自由化在一定程度上会使农民的贫富差距拉大。     

Responses to climate change and farming policies by rural communities in northern China: A report on field observation and farmers’ perception in dryland north Shaanxi and Ningxia

To address land degradation and rural poverty the Chinese government has put in place a series of land conversion programmes in the Loess Plateau area in northern China. In addition to problems arising from unsustainable land use, water resource availability driven in part by climatic forcing is also a threat to livelihoods in this region. To understand climate impacts on farming practice in poor areas of China, field observation and village reconnaissance took place in the summer of 2009 in three selected counties of Shaanxi and Ningxia Province, northern China. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with householders in rural communities aiming to explore the impacts of recent climate and environmental changes and the role of land management practices on individual and community livelihood incomes as well as individual understanding and engagement with these concepts. The findings were complemented with secondary agricultural, economic and climatic data from the study regions. Respondents argued that land conversion programmes improved income potential, sustainability of livestock grazing and environmental quality in the region. However, water availability was thought to increasingly limit agriculture and human wellbeing in some of the regions with water resources becoming notably scarcer. Understanding of climate change as a concept varied amongst farmers potentially hampering the ability to adapt existing farming practices to maximise livelihood incomes sustainably. Positive effects of the government's land management schemes were unevenly distributed within villages and amongst regions, often linked to a lack of knowledge transfer and shared resources resulting in marginalised households and/or communities. Off-farm labour (in many cases relating to young adult rural to urban migration) appears a crucial source of income for households in the study region. Respondents in Ningxia expressed reservations about the future prospect of productive farming if the water availability continued to diminish.     

Assessing agricultural trade policies options with the European Union: a Brazilian perspective

Brazil has shown interest in agricultural trade negotiations at bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels. This study addresses several important negotiations, using the agricultural sector model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis), to analyze liberalization scenarios between the European Union and the Mercosur countries focusing particularly on their impacts in Brazil. Four possible agreements between Europe and Mercosur are simulated, including a broader multilateral agreement proposed in the G20. The results suggest that a bilateral scenario involving larger tariff rate quota increase, as called for by Mercosur, generates larger gains than accepting the European Union proposal of 2004 or further multilateral trade liberalization based on the G20 proposal. However, much larger increases in tariff rate quotas for all products are not necessarily justified in all cases. Moreover, Brazil's production and export potential is limited by factors other than trade restrictions.     

Implications of agricultural trade liberalization for the developing countries

The developing countries as a group could expect to experience only small welfare gains if they chose not to actively participate in agricultural trade liberalization and relied solely on the benefits of partial liberalization in the OECD countries. Participation along the lines of the Dunkel package, with the developing countries reducing positive assistance by less than the developed countries, would yield gains of the order of US $20 billion. More comprehensive participation in trade liberalization involving reductions of both positive and negative protection would almost triple these welfare gains. While some developing countries do not gain from trade liberalization even with full participation, the number of such countries and the magnitude of their losses are greatly reduced.     

Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a Multi-sector World Model

Impacts of agricultural and nonagricultural trade liberalization on agriculture are assessed in a multi-commodity, multi-country framework. By modeling simultaneously all goods sectors of the economy, we evaluate the importance of: (a) relative price changes between sectors, and (b) income and exchange-rate adjustments that follow trade liberalization in a world of floating rates. Specifically, we compare two cases using a static world policy simulation (SWOPSIM) model: agricultural multilateral liberalization and complete multilateral liberalization with floating exchange rates for all countries/regions. In both cases agricultural commodity prices tend to increase, an effect which is more pronounced when currency values adjust. The developing countries, in particular Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, have the most significant advances in agricultural and total production when exchange rates vary. Moreover, the gains from international trade are extended to all countries/regions explicitly specified in the model.     

Agricultural trade liberalization and economic development: the role of downstream market power

A model is developed to characterize the vertically linked and concentrated nature of developed‐country food markets. This model is then parameterized and used to simulate the effects of varying food market structures on the benefits to developing‐country exporters of agricultural commodities from trade liberalization by developed countries. Results demonstrate that even relatively modest departures from perfect competition can cause much of the benefits from trade liberalization to flow to marketing firms instead of producers in the developing country. The distributional effects under downstream market power differ significantly from the perfectly competitive case and may result, somewhat paradoxically, in developing countries receiving a lower share of the total value added within the food chain as trade reform occurs.