Reasoning about knowledge of unawareness

Awareness has been shown to be a useful addition to standard epistemic logic. However, standard propositional logics for knowledge and awareness cannot express the fact that an agent knows that there are facts of which he is unaware without there being an explicit fact that the agent knows he is unaware of. We extend Fagin and Halpern's logic of general awareness to a logic that allows quantification over variables, so that there is a formula in the language that says “an agent explicitly knows that there exists a fact of which he is unaware.” Moreover, that formula can be true without the agent explicitly knowing that he is unaware of any particular formula. We provide a sound and complete axiomatization of the logic. Finally, we show that the validity problem for the logic is recursively enumerable, but not decidable.     

Universal type structures with unawareness

Infinite hierarchies of awareness and beliefs arise in games with unawareness, similarly to belief hierarchies in standard games. A natural question is whether each hierarchy describes the playerʼs awareness of the hierarchies of other players and beliefs over these, or whether the reasoning can continue indefinitely. This paper constructs the universal type structure with unawareness where each type has an awareness level and a belief over types. Countable hierarchies are therefore sufficient to describe all uncertainty in games with unawareness.     

Dynamic unawareness and rationalizable behavior

We define generalized extensive-form games which allow for asymmetric awareness of actions. We extend Pearceʼs (1984) notion of extensive-form (correlated) rationalizability to this setting, explore its properties, and prove existence.     

Epistemic conditions for rationalizability

In this paper I present conditions, not involving common knowledge of rationality, that lead to (correlated) rationalizability. The basic observation is that, if the actual world belongs to a set of states where the set Z of action profiles is played, everyone is rational and it is mutual knowledge that the action profiles played are in Z, then the actions played at the actual world are rationalizable actions. Alternatively, if at the actual world the support of the conjecture of player i is Dⁱ, there is mutual knowledge of: (i) the game being played, (ii) that the players are rational, and (iii) that for every i the support of the conjecture of player i is contained in Dⁱ, then every strategy in the support of the conjectures is rationalizable. The results do not require common knowledge of anything and are valid for games with any number of players.     

Speculative trade, asset prices and investment levels

Summary. In this paper I consider a dynamically complete market model without intrinsic uncertainty. Agents' beliefs are different, but correct in the limit. Some agents are more patient than others. I show that infinitely often share prices are low and the economy stagnates. Also, infinitely often share prices are high and the economy grows. The changes from growth to stagnation and from stagnation to growth are not caused by exogenous shocks. They are caused by speculative trade among agents with different propensities to save and invest. Received: January 8, 2001; revised version: April 11, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments. I gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation.     

企业外部知识搜索能力影响因素研究

外部知识搜索能力成为影响企业开放式创新绩效的关键。通过对企业知识搜索能力影响因素文献的梳理,以整合的思维,从宏观环境层、中观情境层及微观主体层系统归纳了影响外部知识搜索能力的诸因素,分析了各层次因素间的交互效应,构建了企业外部知识搜索能力影响因素模型。     

我国资本市场与证券投资基金互动关系研究

资本市场与证券投资基金之间是否存在着相互促进、共同繁荣的良性互动以及如何实现,这是一个理论和实践上都存在争议的课题,本文通过构建资本市场与证券投资基金互动机制及约束条件,并以此分析中国资本市场与证券投资基金互动关系,研究表明资本市场能促进证券投资基金的发展,但证券投资基金并没有有效地促进资本市场发展     

开放型技术双元、交互吸收能力与企业国际化进入模式选择

选取2008—2019年中国研发活跃度较高的4个行业269家上市企业为样本,采用层次回归模型和Logit模型分析中国企业开放型技术双元能力和不同技术组合交互吸收调节作用对企业绩效的影响,从双元吸收角度对企业国际化进入模式选择进行比较后发现：①中国企业开放型技术双元具有显著开发型和内向型特征,企业跨国双元吸收能力不足造成组织开放型双元压力,并对企业跨国多元化经营和长期绩效产生抑制作用;②相对于技术风险、制度风险和多元化风险,双元吸收风险成为中国企业绩效提升与国际化进入模式选择互动关系的优先考虑,具有较高跨国探索吸收能力的中国新兴行业企业倾向于选择跨国并购模式,而母国双元、跨国双元间交互吸收能力较高的制造业企业倾向于选择绿地投资模式;③中国企业国际化路径选择实践表明,比较竞争优势能够有效弥补后发国家企业跨国双元吸收能力不足的缺陷,并使企业国际化模式选择多元化,反映出开放型双元吸收能力是后发国家企业国际化进入模式选择的充分非必要条件。     

基于边界交互式学习的产业集群开放式创新

以产业集群开放式创新为核心,利用边界交互式学习,对其展开研究与探讨。首先指出影响产业集群边界交互式学习的因素主要包括知识存量、合作意愿、信任程度、吸收能力以及竞争关系5个方面;其次,将产业集群边界交互式学习模式划分为以产业集群企业为学习承担主体的学习模式和以产业集群机构为学习承担主体的学习模式。基于产业集群边界交互式学习能力差异,将产业集群学习主体划分为关键性学习主体和非关键性学习主体,并对其进行简要概述与探讨,指出边界交互式学习与产业集群内部学习在学习目标和学习过程方面具有一致性。     

我国制造业技术标准化与技术创新互动效应——基于9类细分行业的实证研究

基于1995-2012年我国9类细分制造业数据,运用面板数据模型检验行业标准化进程与技术创新水平之间的互动效应。结果表明,9类制造业总体以及航空航天、有色金属、纺织、电子通信设备、计算机办公设备、医药制造行业均呈现二者相互促进的关系,但在化工、机械、医疗设备仪器仪表制造行业中,二者之间表现出一定程度的单向抑制,其中行业内技术创新低端化、技术标准化滞后性为重要诱因。     

ERP系统下的交互式按需报告

在回顾通用财务报告变革的基础上,从信息披露企业与信息使用者共同创造价值的角度分析了交互式按需报告产生的内在动机;根据ERP的发展状况及商业智能技术,探讨了交互式按需报告的实现条件;最后尝试设计一个ERP系统下的交互式按需报告模型。     

产城融合视角下我国新型城镇化与新型工业化互动发展研究

新型工业化与新型城镇化是社会化大生产的必然趋势,是经济社会发展的必经之路,新型城镇化在新型工业化的推动下发展,新型城镇化则承载新型工业化,“两化”同步发展有助于实现城镇和产业融合发展。只有正确把握我国工业化、城镇化互动发展现状,才能有效破解“去工业化”、“伪城镇化”等畸形发展障碍。鉴于此,运用城镇化发展的阶段性规律分析法、国际通用衡量法,分析了我国城镇化目前所处阶段,在此基础上对我国各地区间城镇化与工业化互动发展现状进行了实证分析,最后,结合经济社会发展实际,提出了促进我国新型城镇化与新型工业化互动发展的建议。     

Investor Attention on the Social Web

We study investor attention through practitioners' tweeting behaviors. We develop formalisms of “cognitive niches,” heuristics from adaptive cognitive control, to account for the selectivity of investor attention. Using asset-specific tweets as direct measures of investor attention, we find evidence supporting contextual cognitive control, depending on asset types, investors' experience and investing approaches. We quantify attention contagion arising from the “social proof” heuristic, whereby the drawing power of the crowd in directing investor attention exceeds that of firm fundamentals. Finally, we demonstrate that different natures of investor attention (active or passive) reveals distinct patterns of trading volume, returns and volatility.     

The market for preferences

Learning processes are widely held to be the mechanism by whichboundedly rational agents adapt to environmental changes. Weargue that this same outcome might also be achieved by a differentmechanism, namely specialisation and the division of knowledge,which we here extend to the consumer side of the economy. Wedistinguish between high-level preferences and low-level preferencesas nested systems of rules used to solve particular choice problems.We argue that agents, while sovereign in high-level preferences,may often find it expedient to acquire, in a pseudo-market,the low-level preferences in order to make good choices whenpurchasing complex commodities about which they have littleor no experience. A market for preferences arises when environmentalcomplexity overwhelms learning possibilities and leads agentsto make use of other people's specialised knowledge and decisionrules.     

基于双网络视角的众创空间合作创新网络演化机制研究

众创空间逐渐成为当前研究热点,构建高效的合作创新网络可以提升其运营绩效。当前,合作创新网络解耦研究越来越多,对知识网络与合作网络交互关系进行研究能够更加完整地再现真实网络作用机理。基于双网络视角,对知识网络与合作网络进行解耦,探索众创空间运营机制与创业企业合作策略对网络创新绩效的影响,利用数理建模和仿真方法模拟众创空间知识网络与合作网络的动态演化结构以及两种网络间的交互作用,为提升众创空间运营效率提出改进建议。结果表明：企业合作关系断链重连概率对合作创新绩效有较大影响,这一概率存在相对合理区间;知识网络与合作网络结构在双网络结构机制下有较大差异,并且在动态演化过程中存在交互作用。     

Did China tire safeguard save U.S. workers?

Although temporary trade barriers are perceived as a feasible policy instrument for securing domestic jobs in the presence of increased globalization and economic downturns, no study has assessed whether such temporary barriers have actually saved domestic jobs. To overcome this deficiency, we evaluate the China-specific safeguard case on consumer tires petitioned by the United States. Contrary to claims made by the Obama administration, we find that total employment and average wages in the tire industry were unaffected by the safeguard. Further analysis reveals that this result is not surprising as we find that imports from China are completely diverted to other exporting countries partly due to the strong presence of multinational corporations in the world tire market.     

知识资本与性格特质对企业绩效的交互作用研究

企业作为一个有机实体,拥有独立的知识构成和性格特质,两者均为企业竞争优势的源泉。然而,目前关于二者交互作用于企业绩效的研究鲜见。以我国内地30家上市公司为样本,将回归分析与双因素分析法相结合,探索性地使用财务与治理数据研究知识资本、企业性格与企业绩效的关系,同时测量二者在驱动绩效提高过程中的交互作用,得出结论：知识资本中的人力资本与性格特质中的股东态度、员工感受、社会责任等均对企业绩效有正向影响,且大部分知识资本要素与性格特质要素之间存在显著的交互作用;企业组织可通过调节知识资本与性格特质的投资组合,利用二者交互影响来提升企业绩效。这为知识资本与性格特质协同治理思想的提出提供了启示,也为企业经营管理实践提供了一种新的理论指导。     

知识经济时代国际贸易的发展趋势及对策

知识经济是建立在知识和信息的生产、分配和使用基础之上的经济形态。在知识、技术和全球化力量的推动下，全球国际贸易出现了新的发展趋势和特点。为迎接知识经济的挑战，我国必须调整对外贸易战略，加大科技创新，大力发展知识型服务贸易，推行网络贸易及实施“走出去”战略。