The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach

This article examines the J-curve phenomenon for 16 European transition economies. While previous studies assume a linear relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance, this paper allows for nonlinearity. Following Bahmani-Oskooee and Fariditavana (2015 Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and H. Fariditavana. 2015. “Nonlinear ARDL Approach, Asymmetric Effects and the J-curve.” Journal of Economic Studies 42 (3): 519–530. doi:10.1108/JES-03-2015-0042.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2016 Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and H. Fariditavana. 2016. “Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-curve Phenomenon.” Open Economies Review 27 (1): 51–70. doi:10.1007/s11079-015-9369-5.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the empirical method used is the nonlinear cointegrating autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (2013 Shin, Y., B. Yu, and M. J. Greenwood-Nimmo. 2013. “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework.” In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, edited by William C. Horrace and Robin C. Sickles. New York, NY: Springer Science and Business Media. [Google Scholar]) in which short-run and long-run nonlinearities are introduced via positive (appreciation) and negative (depreciation) partial sum decompositions of the real exchange rate. We argue that the lack of support for the J-curve phenomenon could be due to the linearity assumption. This issue is examined by utilizing the linear and the NARDL models. Using the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we are unable to find support for the J-curve phenomenon in any case. However, when the NARDL model is used, we are able to find evidence for the J-curve in 12 out of the 16 countries. This suggests that allowing for nonlinearity in the adjustment process is important when studying the J-curve phenomenon.     

Real exchange rates in emerging economies

We analyse the role of various investment margins in explaining the real exchange rate appreciation recorded in European transition countries. We present a model that introduces a quality investment margin and show that the margin is needed for replicating the observed pace of real exchange rate appreciation.     

Oil dependency and exchange rate regimes in Arab oil economies: time to rethink the paradigm

This study examines implications of the current exchange rate regimes on the macroeconomic and growth performance of five Arab oil-producing countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Sudan, Algeria and Yemen. The study evaluates alternative exchange rate regime policy options towards exploring an optimal exit strategy to ensure successful transition to more sustainable exchange rate regime, especially in the fixed regime economies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This study proposes the adoption of a transparent broad basket, band and crawl (BBC) regime by the Arab oil economies in order to provide a better alternative to the existing fixed pegs or dirty floats. However, it is imperative to note that, the timing of the exit from the current regime and the extent of institutional development and market sophistications are very critical to successful transition to more sustainable regime that would provide a larger scope for counter-cyclical policies and diversification in these economies.     

Distance in time between transition economies and the European Union

The time distance methodology used offers a new perspective to the problem, an additional statistical measure, and a presentation tool for policy analysis and debate readily understood by policy makers, media and general public. Disparity between the analysed transition economies and EU countries is considerably smaller for other indicators than for GDP per capita. Compared with Ireland, Portugal and Greece Slovenia was in 1995 in 13 cases behind (but time lag of Slovenia never exceeded 10 years) and in 13 cases ahead of them. Sicherl (1997a) discusses application of S-distance to time series regressions, models, forecasting and monitoring. First version received: October 1995/final version received: April 1998     

Privatization and corruption in transition economies: a panel study

By using three corruption indices, six privatization indicators, and taking the endogeneity problem into consideration, we test the hypothesis that privatization contributes to a decrease in corruption in transition economies. We identified a highly statistically significant and negative association between privatization and corruption in transition economies for three different corruption indices and six different privatization indicators.     

The choice of exchange rate regime: An empirical analysis for transition economies*

We analyze the choice of exchange rate regimes of the 25 transition economies in Europe and the CIS after 1990. The empirical results show that the traditional Optimum Currency Area considerations provide relevant guidance for the regime choices in these countries. Moreover, regime choices are influenced by inflation rates, cumulative inflation differentials, and international reserves sufficiency. That is, macroeconomic stabilization and the ability to commit to exchange rate pegs also play important roles. Large government deficits have ambiguous effects; they increase the likelihood of moving from flexible to intermediate regimes as well as that of moving from fixed to intermediate ones.     

Optimal dynamics of environmental quality in economies in transition1

Environmental pressures in the transition economies of the post‐Soviet era affect not only the quality of life for local populations, but also other key economic issues such as privatization and employment by posing obstacles to their progress. Most studies addressing the environment in transition economies are empirical or analyze the effect of environmental protection on economic variables without first establishing an underlying framework together with the optimal path of environmental quality during the transition. This paper presents such a framework and a policy rule for attainment of the optimal balance between capital and environmental quality in economies in transition. Furthermore, the model shows that pollution taxes or tradable pollution permits are by themselves insufficient to implement the social optimum in a decentralized economy. The results of the model are consistent with depressed economic activity in those economies during an initial phase, and with the diversity of environmental policies in both Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries and the Newly Independent States (NIS). JEL classification: Q20, P20, O13.     

The curse of natural resources in the transition economies*

The curse of natural resources is a well‐documented phenomenon for developing countries. Economies that are richly endowed with natural resources tend to grow slowly. Among the transition economies of the former ‘Eastern Bloc’, a similar pattern can be observed. This paper shows that a large part of the variation in growth rates among the transition economies can be attributed to the curse of natural resources. After controlling for numerous other factors, there is still a strong negative correlation between natural resource abundance and economic growth. Among the transition economies the prime reasons for the curse of natural resources were corruption and a neglect of basic education. In order to overcome the curse of natural resources and move to a sustainable path of development, the resource abundant transition countries should fight corruption and ensure that their resource revenues are invested in human capital or the preservation of natural capital.     

The exchange rate and optimal monetary policy rules in open and developing economies: Some simple analytics

Using a simple, tractable model, this paper revisits and expands upon issues relating to optimal monetary policy rules (MPRs) in open economies. The optimality of the rule is explored through various specifications of a central bank loss function as it is the loss function that offers insight into central bank preferences. Many of the issues on this topic have centred on the role of the exchange rate: Is it optimal for the policy instrument to react to the exchange rate? What is the role of the exchange rate in a domestic inflation targeting vs CPI inflation targeting? Does a fear of floating have any bearing on the way optimal MPRs are constructed? While this paper is not empirical, the analysis is relevant for central banks in open and developing economies that face a choice between allowing exchange rates to float (and adopting an inflation targeting regime) and engaging in some degree of exchange rate fixity.     

A prototype model of the foreign exchange market of Canada: Forecasting capital flows and exchange rates

A balance-of-payments structural model of the foreign exchange market of Canada, endogenizing capital flows, the spot and forward exchange rates and the entities of the monetary sector, is developed using quarterly data for 1971–81. The capital flows have been disaggregated into ten categories and the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar have been analysed against five major currencies. While the model does not adhere strictly to purchasing power or interest rate parity, it does recognize them and it also incorporates other economic fundamentals, expectations and risk. Government interventions, although generated endogenously, are quantified implicitly and globally. The model tracks the post-Bretton Woods in-sample experience and generates ex post predictions reasonably well.     

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in South Africa and Nigeria: structural breaks analysis

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates has continued to generate interest from both the academia and financial industry players for many years. This study conducts an empirical investigation into the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for the two largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa – South Africa and Nigeria. Our methodology accounts for structural breaks in the data and the long-run relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results of multivariate causality tests with structural breaks showed that causality runs from exchange rates to domestic stock prices in Nigeria (flow channel) while in South Africa, no causality exists between domestic stock prices and exchange rates. The results also reveal that there is causality from the London stock market to both countries’ stock markets, thus showing that international stock markets are driving both the Nigerian and South African stock markets.     

Restructuring financial systems in transition and developing economies: an approach based on the French financial system

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the redesigning of financial systems in Central and Eastern European and developing countries by focusing attention on specific financial institutions appropriate to easing the transition and fostering the creation of markets. The paper argues that the immediate emulation of the better-known institutions of the most developed, market-based financial systems, i.e. the US and the UK, should not be taken for granted. It underlines, instead, the importance of drawing inspiration from the experiences of a variety of institutions and financial systems. Particularly relevant are those systems that have experienced forms of transition and a mix, over time, of market and state intervention.
The approach of this paper is one of institutional financial economics (Neave, 1991 and Williamson, 1986), in which structural details of financial institutions and contracts, in our case French financial institutions, are analysed. We argue that the principles on which some French financial institutions are based and aspects of their functioning are of value to reformers. We discuss the lessons that can be learnt from the Crédit National, the Commissariat Général du Plan, the CODEVI and the SOFARIS.     

Black market exchange rates in India: an empirical analysis

In this paper, we explore the determinants of black market (BM) exchange rates in India using annual data from 1955–1994 and integration and cointegration analysis. Two important factors, namely the import capacity of official foreign exchange reserves and restrictions on international trade, have largely been ignored as determinants of BM rates. We stress the importance of these two factors and incorporate them, with others more familiar in the literature, in our theoretical and empirical model for BM rates in India. Our empirical findings show that a low level of official foreign exchange reserves negatively and a high level of trade restrictions positively affect BM rates. We show that the flexible Bretton Woods exchange rate policies for India in 1973 have a negative impact on BM rates. The results also reveal that interest rate policies positively affect BM rates. Thus, our empirical model lends support to the trade and monetary approaches to BM rates and hence, trade restrictions with excess money supply should be removed to eliminate the BMs for forex in India. First Version Received: September 98/Final Version Received: January 2000     

An interactive perspective of managers’ functional experience and managerial ties of new ventures in transition economies

ABSTRACT

Using a sample of new ventures in China, this study examined the roles of the two different types of managerial resources, i.e. managerial ties and functional experience, simultaneously and interactively. It suggests that both of them have positive influences on new venture performance, and managerial ties remain the main factor that contributes to firm success. Political ties have a positive effect on sales growth but have an inverted U-shaped relationship with profit growth of new ventures, while the effect of business ties on firm performance is monotonic and positive. Finally, it suggests that the complementary effect occurs between political ties and functional experience, while the substitution effect occurs between business ties and marketing experience.     

The dynamic adjustment towards target capital structures of firms in transition economies*

We examine the capital structure dynamics of Central and Eastern European firms to get a better understanding of the quantitative and qualitative development of the financial systems in this region. The dynamic model used endogenizes the target leverage as well as the adjustment speed. It is applied to microeconomic data for ten countries. We find that during the transition process, firms generally increased their leverage, lowering the gap between the actual and the target leverage. Profitability and age are the most robust determinants of capital structure targets. Although banking system development has in general enabled firms to get closer to their leverage targets, information asymmetries between firms and banks are still relatively large. As a result, firms prefer internal finance above bank debt and adjust leverage only slowly.     

Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition,banking fragility and foreign exchange

This article has two objectives: to study the 1997 episode of hyperinflation in Bulgaria, and to compare and contrast this analysis with the post-Keynesian theoretical approach. This approach highlights the role of three components observed simultaneously in order to understand the emergence of hyperinflation: a virulent distributive conflict; the presence of indexing mechanisms; and finally, flight from domestic currency into one or more foreign currencies. The article reveals that a transitional economy like that of Bulgaria in the 1990s may generate hyperinflation in the absence of any violent distribution conflict: the transition and the banking crisis engender inflation. The foreign exchange rate is decisive in the emergence of hyperinflationary dynamics (and therefore mistrust of domestic currency). This interpretation of hyperinflation is confirmed by an econometric analysis.     

Structure and performance of the service sector in transition economies1

This paper examines the performance of the service sector in the Eastern European transition economies during the 1997–2004 period. The performance of the service sector as a whole and of its sub‐sectors is very heterogeneous within the region. Service sub‐sectors that are information and communications technology producers or users and those using skilled labour more intensively exhibit the highest labour productivity growth. Our estimates show a positive and significant effect of liberalization on service labour productivity growth that is stronger for sub‐sectors that are more distant from the technological frontier. Service liberalization is also shown to have a positive effect on labour productivity levels and growth of downstream manufacturing industries.     

The demand for money and the real exchange rate misalignments in emerging European countries: A nonlinear approach

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic and foreign money balances in emerging European countries are influenced by foreign exchange considerations. A well-specified and stable relationship between real money demand and the exchange rate can be perceived as an important part of a successful monetary policy. This study examines the long-run determinants of real exchange rates (RERs) associated with the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach and identifies currency misalignments in these countries. The misalignment is later used to test the nonlinear behavior of the demand for money. The results indicate that the RER misalignments have a significant impact on domestic money demand. When the currencies are overvalued, there is a reduction in domestic money demand, and when they are undervalued, there is an increase in domestic money demand. Furthermore, it can be concluded that overvaluation causes an increase in foreign money demand indicating a shift of preference from domestic to foreign currency.     

Investigating the Balassa‐Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study

This paper studies the Balassa‐Samuelson (B‐S) effect in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. We use time series and panel cointegration techniques and show that the B‐S effect works reasonably well in the transition economies under study during the period from 1991:Q1 to 2001:Q2. However, we find, that productivity growth does not fully translate into price increases because of the construction of the CPI indexes. We therefore argue that productivity growth will not hinder meeting the Maastricht criterion on inflation in the medium term. In addition, the observed appreciation of the CPI‐deflated real exchange rate is found to be systematically higher compared with the real appreciation the B‐S effect could justify, especially in the cases of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. This can be partly explained by the trend appreciation of the tradable price‐based real exchange rate, increases in non‐tradable prices due to price liberalization and demand‐side pressures and the evolution of the nominal exchange rate determined by the nature of the exchange rate regime and the magnitude of capital inflows. JEL classification: E31, F31, O11, P17,     

Methods of privatization and economic growth in transition economies1

We examine how different methods of privatization might have affected growth in transition economies. Using several econometric specifications, including fixed effects and GMM, we estimate a cross‐country panel growth model for 1990–2003. We find only voucher privatization to have been significantly associated with faster growth. Moreover, neither private sector development per se nor capital market development exercised a significant influence. We speculate that voucher privatization may have been effective because of the speed with which links between firms and the state were severed.