基于冗员的中国就业弹性估计

由于我国的企业中存在大量的冗员,研究就业弹性时必须考虑冗员的影响。基于这种考虑,本文建立了一个存在冗员的就业弹性模型来研究冗员对就业弹性的影响;并利用相关数据,重新估计了我国1980—2004年剔除冗员影响后的就业弹性;结果显示1995年后中国GDP对就业的拉动能力并没有下降。     

An Evaluation of Unemployment Policy in Australia Using the Range of Equilibria

The major failures of macroeconomic policy in the last 40 years are the huge increases in unemployment and inflation in the 1970s and the persistence for 25 years of the former. This article uses econometric estimates of a model of the range of equilibria for Australia for the period 1965:4 to 2003:3 to evaluate the role of macroeconomic policies in these failures. Our analysis distinguishes the roles of aggregate supply policies and aggregate demand policies. We conclude from our analysis that macroeconomic outcomes would have been better over this period had monetary policy been guided by a hierarchical inflation target, which is to be set so as to achieve the highest level of activity subject to satisfying the inflation target.     

Inertia Risk: Improving Economic Models of Catastrophes*

We model endogenous catastrophic risk in a new way. We call it “inertia risk”, which accounts for delays between physical variables and the hazard rate – a characteristic often observed in reality. The added realism significantly affects optimal policies relative to the standard model of catastrophic risk. The probability of a catastrophe occurring at some point in time can span the entire interval [0,1], and is not 0 or 1 as is typical in standard models. Inertia risk can also generate path dependences. We illustrate the implications for policy in a simple model of climate change.     

二元性失业的根源分析

从2008年开始,中国又一次面临比较沉重的就业压力,这次的就业压力具有其突出的特点,是在劳动力供给数量并未出现大幅度增长情况下的二元性失业。从表面上看,沉重的就业压力是以美国次贷危机为起点的世界性金融危机的结果,但其深层次原因却在于分工受阻导致的劳动力吸收能力下降,因此,为分工扩张创造更大的空间,采取以深化分工为导向的政策措施,提升分工水平是解决当前二元性失业问题的基本途径。     

Involuntary Unemployment: An Expository Note

This note is an effort to view the research program of Brecher and his co-workers to deploy tax incentives against involuntary unemployment in the broader context; on both the equity-efficiency trade-off in political economy, and the dual economic structure in the theoretic foundations of market equilibrium.     

Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment: An analysis of the aggregate demand-side effects for postwar Canada

Most of the theoretical and empirical literature on the effects of unemployment insurance (UI) during the last 25 years has focused on the supply-side implications. The object of this article is to argue that much of those discussions over the disincentive effects of UI is misdirected. Our intention is to bring back to the forefront a discussion of the positive macroeconomic role played by UI net injections in stabilizing aggregate demand. Our empirical results using Canadian data for the postwar period support this Keynesian view of the stabilizing effect of UI in contemporary economies.     

Unemployment In Developing Countries: Economist's Models in Light of Evidence From Sri Lanka

Observation of open unemployment in developing countries has lead some economist to formulate models which seek to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines unemployment in Sri Lanka in detail to see whether the assumptions and conclusions of economists' models are consistent with empirical data. In the case of Sri Lanka, these models provide a useful starting point but miss some of the essential details. Until one examines how the unemployed support themselves and how they spend their time, one's understanding of this phenomenon, as well as one's suggestions for policy changes, is necessarily incomplete. [820]     

对中国“知识失业”成因的一个解释

许多国家的经验表明,在教育快速发展的过程中往往伴随着“知识失业”。近年来,我国在经历教育快速发展的同时,也开始面临这样的问题。本文以扩展的工作搜寻模型为框架,分析了当前“知识失业”产生的原因。根据分析结果,现阶段出现的“知识失业”,在很大程度上是由劳动力市场的制度性分割引起的,因此应该逐步消除劳动力市场的制度性分割,鼓励大学毕业生到西部和农村等次要劳动力市场上就业,在确定高等教育的发展规模时要适当考虑劳动力市场的发育状况。     

The Burden of Unemployment on Family Units: An Overview

This article proposes several measures of the burden of unemployment on family units. It is shown that one in 13 couple families had at least the husband or wife unemployed in 1994. Almost one-quarter of the total unemployment among couple families in 1994 was in families where both husband and wife were unemployed. The analyses presented show that the burden of unemployment on family units differs according to the characteristics of the family. It is particularly intense in couple families with young dependents and among immigrants from non-English-speaking countries. Of particular concern is the finding that there are many families where there are multiple family members unemployed and no member employed. This will have major implications where knowledge of employment opportunities is obtained primarily through family contacts.     

Inflation,Unemployment and Hysteresis: An alternative view

This paper integrates ideas concerning the influence of the interest rate on the rate of profits with an analysis of inflation and its relation with unemployment. Inflation is regarded, as in Kaleckian contributions, as resulting from inconsistent claims on income, but the approach taken leads to different conclusions concerning the effects of inflation (or deflation) on income distribution, and the circumstances giving rise to acceleration of inflation. The approach followed in the paper also provides explanations of phenomena that have appeared 'puzzling', particularly the association of different unemployment rates with stable inflation, and the persistence of high rates of unemployment.     

An Equity-based Redefinition of Underemployment and Unemployment and Some Measurements

An attempt is made in this article to redefine underemployment and unemployment without making reference to an excess supply of labor or any causal mechanism of unemployment. Instead, underemployment and unemployment are defined in terms of equity which draws upon the individual's preferences. A specific proposal is that underemployment be defined by the presence of contribution inequity relative to at least half the persons employed in a field that the underemployed person might prefer to move into. Empirically, most recent survey data on preferences for contingent and other nontraditional employment are used to illustrate the application of the concept. The major finding is that nearly 10 million Americans in the nontraditional workforce are underemployed.     

美国贸易逆差:增长惯性与可持续性

美国的经常项目逆差特别是贸易逆差“历史悠久”,尤其是近年来高速增长,已引起人们广泛的关注。本文作者认为:20世纪90年代以来的美国贸易逆差已很难单从汇率、贸易政策及产品竞争力等单个变量来加以解释。通过运用滞后一年的时间数列相关分析及回归分析,本文得出的结论是:当期美国贸易逆差是前期美国贸易逆差的惯性增长,并且只要美国资本与金融账户的盈余足够冲抵贸易逆差,美国的贸易逆差便具有可持续性。针对近期美国人制造的“人民币升值论”,结合近十年来中美双边贸易现实,说明美国贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间没有必然联系,人民币升值也不可能改善美国的贸易收支状况。     

An Estimate of the Range of Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment for Australia

This paper estimates the range of equilibrium rates of unemployment for Australia. The estimation technique nests a unique equilibrium rate of unemployment as a special case. It is found for the period 1965–97 that a range of equilibria of at least 6.6 percentage points of unemployment exists in Australia. The lower limit of this range, which is the minimum rate of unemployment consistent with non-increasing inflation, was 2–3 per cent in the 1960s, jumped in the early 1970s and was about 5.6 per cent during the 1990s.     

Unemployment Invariance

Abstract. This paper provides a critique of the ‘unemployment invariance hypothesis’, according to which the behavior of the labor market, by itself, ensures that the long‐run unemployment rate is independent of the size of the capital stock, productivity and the labor force. In the context of an endogenous growth model, we show that the labor market alone need not contain all the equilibrating mechanisms to ensure unemployment invariance; in particular, other markets may perform part of the equilibrating process as well. By implication, policies that raise the growth path of capital or increase the effective working‐age population may influence the long‐run unemployment rate.     

Unemployment vs. Mismatch of Talents: Reconsidering Unemployment Benefits

We develop an equilibrium search-matching model with risk-neutral agents and two-sided ex-ante heterogeneity. Unemployment insurance has the standard effect of reducing employment, but also helps workers to get a suitable job. We show, through calibrations, how the mere difference on unemployment insurance, when countries experience a common skilled-biased technological shock, may result in differences in unemployment, productivity growth and wage inequality. These results are consistent with the contrasting performance of the labour market in Europe and the United States in the last twenty-five years. The model is used to address some political economy issues.     

用失业指数预警社会失业现象的研究

利用失业指数替代失业率能比较准确、科学地反映社会失业的现实状况。文章通过失业指数计算的设计过程及其计算结果,对失业这一特定的,与经济密切相关的社会现象进行分析研究的基础上,建立了一整套监测、评价和预测未来失业变动状态的失业监测预警体系。     

The Impact of Globalization on the Structural Unemployment: An Empirical Reappraisal

This paper analyzes the direct effects of various measures of globalization on the structural unemployment in 87 countries for the period from 1991 to 2014. The model specifications are based on the Ricardian Comparative Advantage and the Heckscher–Ohlin models. It is found that one standard deviation increase in the trade openness approximately leads to 0.6 percentage point lower structural unemployment rate. The effects of economic, social, and political aspects of globalization on the structural unemployment are also negative, but they are found as statistically insignificant. The paper also implements various robustness checks and argues potential implications.