Irving Fisher (1867–1947)

A bstract .   This essay is reprinted from Eatwell, J., M. Milgate and P. Newman (eds.) The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics . 1987, 2: 369–376. United Kingdom, London and Basingstoke: The Macmillan Press Limited; New York, N.Y. The Stockton Press and Japan, Maruzen Company Limited. The essay is reproduced with the kind permission of Palgrave Macmillan.     

The Ideal Inflation‐Indexed Bond and Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest with Overlapping Generations*

Abstract Irving Fisher long advocated inflation‐indexed bonds. But with what index? I prove in the context of a multicommodity CAPM world that the best welfare‐improving bond pays the minimum money needed to achieve the same utility, and not the minimum needed to buy an ideal commodity bundle. Irving Fisher also developed and advocated the impatience theory of interest. But in OLG economies, the rate of interest is determined by population growth, not impatience. I reconcile this contradiction by proving that in stationary OLG economies with land, the interest rate at the unique steady state does depend on impatience. Indeed, the proposition that greater impatience creates higher interest rates holds more generally in OLG with land than in Fisher's two‐period model, because then income effects and substitution effects naturally work in the same direction.     

Comments on John Geanakoplos's "The Ideal Inflation-Indexed Bond and Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest with Overlapping Generations"

A bstract    A comment on the article by John Geanakoplos in this volume.
It is refreshing to hear an account of Irving Fisher's views on risk and indexation juxtaposed with an account of our modern concerns with the same issues. It is interesting for me to hear this, partly since it shows that many of the issues we worry about today were concerns 70 or more years ago, and thus perhaps that these issues are indeed as deep and fundamental as we now think they are. But I found this history-of-thought presentation most interesting because it clarifies, by starting with simple notions that were on Irving Fisher's mind and moving forward, some of the critical issues concerning the innovations of indexation and Social Security reform.     

利息税对消费刺激作用的经济学分析

利率是调节消费者跨时间消费选择的一个重要政策变量。在我国目前消费低迷,物价指数持续回落的形势下,征收利息税无疑是一个非常“自然”的选择。一方面,政府可以利用征收上来的税收收入来扩大政府购买,刺激总需求。另一方面,对于消费者来讲,征收利息税等同于利率的下跌,从而当期消费的机会成本下降,从理论上有可能刺激个人消费。本文建立一个消费者跨时间消费选择的生命周期模型来分析利息税对消费的刺激作用。     

关于“营改增”后的账务处理

国家为了增强服务行业的竞争力,对原来交营业税的一些行业比如软件开发、运输、咨询行业等8大行业进行交增值税的试点,由于营业税和增值税的性质不同,差额纳税的税务处理为可抵减销售额,这样的目的,从总体上来说是降低接受服务方的税负,现就营改增后的会计账务处理阐述笔者的观点。     

浅谈消费税在促进低碳经济中的作用

消费税制度作为一种制度安排,在促进低碳经济发展方面发挥着重要的作用。现行消费税在促进低碳经济发展方面仍存在着不足。通过改进和调整,消费税对于促进低碳经济发展将发挥更加积极的作用。     

降低契税税率,启动住房消费

与改革开放之初相比,中国人的消费习惯和生活方式已发生质的变化,温饱型的消费模式已被享受型和发展型的消费模式所取代,中国已进入消费时代。 根据我国现阶段的收入水平和需求,为了扩大市场,消费次序只能是先房后车,这无疑是正确的。而住宅投资和就业有放大效应,即对国民经济的其他部门有很大的带动作用。那么,为什么现阶段各地在激活房产市场、拉动住房需求方面的种种努力收效不大呢?下面我们指出两点常常被忽视的重要原因,一为契税税率偏高,二为社会信用不足。     

Information and Economics in Fisher's Design of Experiments

In 1951 R. A. Fisher described what had been achieved in the 20th century so far: “we have learnt (i) To conserve in its statistical reduction the scientific information latent in any body of observations. (ii) To conduct experimental and observational inquiries so as to maximise the information obtained for a given expenditure.” This paper asks what Fisher meant and, in particular, how he saw his work on experimental design as contributing to the objective of maximizing information for a given expenditure. The material examined ranges from detailed work on issues like “the information lost in measurement of error” to polemics against decision theory .     

浅谈营改增对企业的影响及企业的对策

为了改革与完善财税体制,促进产业结构升级,国家开始在全国部分行业中逐步开展营业税改征增值税改革。营改增政策给改革所处行业企业带来很大影响,这些影响既有积极影响,又有消极的影响。本文对营改增政策给企业带来的积极影响和消极影响进行分析,并提出一些对策。     

Reforming or Transforming the Federal Tax System: (A Review Essay)

A bstract . Several proposals to reform the federal income tax system are under active consideration. Professor Richard W. Lindholm has proposed instead that we abolish the individual and corporate income taxes and the estate and gift taxes. To replace the lost revenue he proposes a flat 15 per cent value added tax and a flat 2 per cent net wealth tax. He posits five goals for successful tax reform and discusses his proposed system in terms of them. He finds his system would be simpler and less disruptive of markets than even a simplified income tax structure.     

GM(1,1)模型在航材消耗预测中的应用

传统的预测方法很难对部分消耗数据少、影响因素不明确的航材进行准确预测。运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,可以对"小样本"、贫信息"这类航材进行更为准确的消耗预测。     

灰色GM(1,1)模型在南京居民消费预测中的应用

灰色系统理论的研究对象是"部分信息已知,部分信息未知"的"小样本"、"贫信息"不确定性系统。它通过对"部分"已知信息的生成、开发去了解、认识现实世界,实现对系统运行行为和演化规律的正确把握和描述。GM(1,1)灰色模型是其中应用最为广泛的一个模型。本文以2003～2007年南京地区城市居民消费数据为依据,建立了南京市2003～2007年城市居民人均消费支出的GM(1,1)灰色模型,并应用该模型对南京市城市居民人均消费变化趋势做了预测,预计2009年南京地区城市居民消费为18093元。     

灰色GM(1,1)模型在南京居民消费预测中的应用

灰色系统理论的研究对象是“部分信息已知,部分信息未知”的“小样本”、“贫信息”不确定性系统。它通过对“部分”已知信息的生成、开发去了解、认识现实世界,实现对系统运行行为和演化规律的正确把握和描述。GM（1,1）灰色模型是其中应用最为广泛的一个模型。本文以2003-2007年南京地区城市居民消费数据为依据,建立了南京市2003～2007年城市居民人均消费支出的GM（1,1）灰色模型,并应用该模型对南京市城市居民人均消费变化趋势做了预测,预计2009年南京地区城市居民消费为18093元。     

Economic Sociology in Retrospect and Prospect

A bstract Theory and research in the field of economic sociology have seen steady advancements in recent years. Economic sociology has become a legitimate branch of sociology as well as of economics. Nonetheless, the treatment of economic sociology in both modern economics and sociology leaves much to be desired. Various formal-terminological confusions and theoretical-substantive misconceptions are still present in the field. The present article advances some proposals for remedying this situation. In particular, it provides clarifications of and amendments to the current treatment of issues, such as the relationship between economics and sociology, the character of economic sociology, its links to economic theory, socio-economics, and rational choice theory, as well as the question of the old versus the new economic sociology. Special emphasis is placed on the relationships between economic sociology and rational choice theory, given the latter's claims to universality. It is hoped that the article will thereby redress certain inconsistencies found in some previous treatments of economic sociology as well as stimulate further refinements.     

“营改增”后物流业的流转税问题研究

税收政策的制定影响物流业的发展,而物流业对一国的国民经济的发展至关重要。文章对物流业"营改增"的基本情况及"营改增"后物流业出现的新问题进行了阐述,提出了解决思路和对策。     

基于信息可视化技术的税务决策支持系统分析

建立税务决策支持系统，是金税工程的一项重要任务，依托信息技术将传统的抽象数据赋予形象，有助于决策者的决策分析。本文从发展信息可视化技术的重要意义入手，对可视化信息的类型及技术作了阐述，并针对如何建立基于信息可视化技术的税务决策支持系统进行了分析。