关于欧洲主权债务危机的反思

欧洲主权债务危机是主权问题与银行问题相互作用的结果,充分暴露了欧盟和欧元区政治制度的缺陷,以及行政决策能力的缺陷。在欧盟层面上化解欧洲主权债务危机需要三个条件:(1)在欧元区实行统一的财政政策,与统一的货币政策保持一致。(2)在欧元区建立统一的银行监管框架。(3)进一步推动欧盟和欧元区改革,为财政政策一体化和银行监管一体化提供政治支持。     

救助欧洲：中国宜当“调解人”

尽管欧洲当前遇到的问题是主权债务危机,但未来可能由债务危机触发新一轮的银行危机。一旦欧洲出现银行危机,将会迅速引起市场恐慌,产生比2008年雷曼兄弟破产更为严重的破坏力,给世界经济和中国经济造成巨大的冲击。理由如次。     

欧元区主权债务危机对国际金融市场的影响及启示

欧元区主权债务危机爆发两年多来,全球股市纷纷下挫、走势低迷,外汇市场也随着债务危机的延伸而跌宕起伏。旷日持久的债务危机不仅对国际金融市场造成巨大冲击,加剧了国际资本流动的频繁无序,且已导致欧洲银行体系的信用风险加大和流动性紧张等问题。欧元区主权债务危机的爆发,提醒我们要全面审视中国的主权债务问题,尤其要加强对地方政府债务的监管,以防范债务危机的发生。     

从主权债务危机看欧洲一体化的两大缺陷——兼论对东亚一体化的启示

结合欧盟统计局以及欧洲央行2010和2011年公布的最新数据,分别从财政赤字、公共债务、失业率和通胀率等几个主要宏观经济指标出发,分析了欧洲主权债务危机的最新进展。研究表明,此次欧洲主权债务危机的爆发与欧洲一体化进程的缺陷密不可分。这种缺陷集中表现为欧盟发展至今的数次扩大,越来越凸显一体化扩张过快问题,以致现有成员经济发展水平差距较大,当遭遇不对称冲击时,难免使一体化陷入两难境地,也使得危机应对措施的效力大打折扣;同时,欧盟在推进货币一体化过程中,忽视了成员国之间的财政合作问题,财政一体化的缺失导致债务危机在所难免。     

从全球金融危机到主权责务危机的形成机制分析

本文从银行危机传导、经济衰退、金融危机救助、外部评级下调等方面分析了欧洲危机国主权债务风险增加的形成机制,并从主权债务风险导致的外部融资成本上升分析了主权债务危机的形成机制。     

2010年国际金融十件大事

欧洲主权债务危机愈演愈烈2009年12月全球三大评级公司下调希腊主权评级,希腊陷入财政危机。2010年2月23日,希腊债务危机扩散到银行系统,希腊四大银行评级遭到下调。随后,欧洲其他国家也开始陷入危机,比利时及欧元区内经济实力较强的西班牙、葡萄牙,都     

欧洲银行业危机的演变

巨大的资本金缺口、持续萎缩的银行间流动性以及对欧洲经济陷入衰退的担忧,使得欧洲银行业前景仍在恶化自2009年12月希腊爆发主权债务危机以来,欧元区银行体系的脆弱性逐步暴露。主权债务危机逐步     

西班牙主权债务危机及其应对

<正>欧洲国家主权债务危机爆发对欧洲经济增长与金融体系稳定形成了持续威胁,极大动摇了投资者信心。作为欧洲第四大经济体,西班牙也开始陷入主权债务危机,经济衰退、产出下滑、失业率飙升、利率高企,大宗商品需求预期颓势难变。研究西班牙主权债务问题并且总结其经验教训具有重要意义。一、西班牙主权债务危机的演化西班牙经济发展过度依赖房地产业。西班牙房地产业的兴旺带动银行业的一路繁荣,银行业资金又同时催生了房地产泡沫,而泡沫破裂直接危及银行     

欧洲深陷主权债务危机的原因及启示

债务危机延缓了世界经济的复苏,暴露了欧洲一体化进程中的某些制度性缺陷,也警醒了存在债务问题的其他经济体2009年底,随着全球三大评级公司下调希腊主权评级,欧洲债务危机拉开序幕。随后,国际评级机构对葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰及西班牙等国(与希腊一起,被称为PIIGS)的主权信用评级提出警告或者负面评价,整个欧盟几乎都受到债务危机困扰。2010     

欧洲主权债务危机的演化和解决——城市金融研究所与法国外贸银行研究部门进行学术交流

2010年12月20日下午,法国外贸银行亚太地区首席经济学家Luca Silipo先生、亚太区国际金融业务组主管Bertrand Frigard先生、该行北京代表处首席代表贾卫等一行拜访了工商银行城市金融研究所,并围绕欧洲主权债务危机的演化和解决做了专题讲座,同时介绍了法国外贸银行的金融业务线和相关产品。在分析欧债危机问题时,Luca Silipo先生介绍了欧洲为解决主权债务危机所采取的主要行动,其中包括成立欧洲金融稳定机构(EFSF)等。他还进一步指出:一是欧洲金融稳定机构(EFSF)对于救助流动性危机较为有效,但对于偿付性危机作用甚微,因此其     

欧洲债务危机影响全球金融市场

2011年12月,国际清算银行（BIS）发布季度报告,指出欧债危机已成为影响全球金融市场的主要因素。文章结合这一报告从全球增长预期与货币政策应对、欧债主权债融资形势、欧洲银行融资及清偿力状况、全球溢出效应等多个视角系统而具体地回顾了2011年四季度以来欧债危机形势的演变及影响,以期为投资者分析与展望2012年全球金融市场前景提供参考。     

The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises

European banks became a source of risk to global financial markets during the financial crisis and attention to the European banking sector increased during the sovereign debt crisis. To measure the systemic risk of European banks, we calculate a distress insurance premium (DIP), which integrates the characteristics of bank size, probability of default, and correlation. Based on this measure, the systemic risk of European banks reached its height in late 2011 around €500 billion. We find that this was largely due to sovereign default risk. The DIP methodology is also used to measure the systemic contribution of individual banks. This approach identifies the large systemically important European banks, but Italian and Spanish banks as a group notably increased in systemic importance during the sample period. Bank-specific fundamentals like capital-asset ratios predict the one-year-ahead systemic risk contributions.     

Domestic Banks As Lightning Rods? Home Bias and Information during the Eurozone Crisis

European banks have been criticized for holding excessive domestic government debt during the recent Eurozone crisis, which may have intensified the diabolic loop between sovereign and bank credit risks. By using a novel bank-level data set covering the entire timeline of the Eurozone crisis, I first reconfirm that the crisis led to the reallocation of sovereign debt from foreign to domestic banks. In contrast to the recent literature focusing only on sovereign debt, I show that the banks' private-sector exposures were (at least) equally affected by the rise in home bias. Consistent with this pattern, I propose a new debt reallocation channel based on informational frictions and show that the informationally closer foreign banks increase their relative exposures when the sovereign risk rises. The effect of informational closeness is economically meaningful and robust to the use of different information measures and controls for alternative channels of sovereign debt reallocation.     

The sovereign-bank rating channel and rating agencies' downgrades during the European debt crisis

We investigate the rating channel for the transmission of changes in sovereign risk to the banking sector, analysing data from Moody's, S&P and Fitch before and during the European debt crisis. Sovereign rating downgrades and negative watch signals have strong effects on bank rating downgrades in the crisis period. The impact is stronger for multiple-notch sovereign rating downgrades, and more pronounced in PIIGS countries. Secondly, we investigate rating agencies' competition in the banking sector during the same periods, finding significant differences in rating policies across the agencies. S&P credit actions tend to be the more independent ones, while Moody's appears to be more cautious, although it is by far the most likely to assign multiple-notch downgrades. In the pre-crisis period, we find no evidence that bank rating actions are linked to sovereign rating signals (nor vice versa) nor to prior bank rating changes by a competing agency.     

欧债危机对中国出口贸易的影响及策略

欧债危机的爆发和加剧给全球经济带来了巨大的冲击。欧盟是中国最大贸易伙伴和最大出口市场,此次危机将对中国出口贸易产生巨大的不利影响。本文在分析这些不利影响的基础之上,提出了面对危机,中国发展出口贸易的策略。     

主权信用违约互换的运作及启示

欧洲各国主权债务危机的频发,使得主权CDS在全球范围内备受瞩目。本文分析了主权CDS的市场发展状况、运作及定价机制;考察欧洲主权债务危机中主权CDS的行为;提出对我国地方政府债务问题的启示。研究发现:(1)主权CDS息差变化受到了欧元区因素、本国因素、投机和代理对冲的影响;(2)短期主权CDS供不应求;(3)禁止主权CDS的裸卖空交易存在不合理性;(4)西欧主权风险外溢使得东欧及新兴市场国家的主权CDS市场波动加剧。     

Vine copulas and applications to the European Union sovereign debt analysis

European sovereign debt crisis has become a very popular topic since late 2009. In this paper, sovereign debt crisis is investigated by calculating the probabilities of the potential future crisis of 11 countries in the European Union. We use sovereign spreads of the European countries against Germany as targets and apply the GARCH based vine copula simulation technique. The methodology solves the difficulties of calculating the probabilities of rarely happening events and takes sovereign debt movement dependence, especially tail dependence, into consideration. Results indicate that Italy and Spain are the most likely next victims of the sovereign debt crisis, followed by Ireland, France and Belgium. The UK, Sweden and Denmark, which are outside the euro area, are the most financially stable countries in the sample.     

希腊主权债务危机的成因与影响

日益严重的希腊主权债务危机将希腊推向了欧元区主权债务问题的风口浪尖,由此也形成了影响欧元区稳定运行的严峻挑战。该文基于国际金融危机对希腊经济与财政运行状况的影响,分析了引起希腊主权债务危机的成因及解决途径,指出解决希腊主权债务危机除了希腊自身的努力外,依然需要国际社会尤其是欧盟的援助。从全球的角度看,其他经济体的主权债务问题也同样值得警惕和重视。     

An asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation analysis of linkages of European financial institutions during the Greek sovereign debt crisis

This article employs the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model to assess impacts of the recent sovereign debt crisis on the time-varying correlations of five European financial institutions holding large amounts of Greek sovereign bonds (National Bank of Greece, BNP Paribas, Dexia, Generali, and Commerzbank). Contrary to the results of preceding studies, we find significant increases in the correlations between several combinations of the financial institutions’ stock returns after the inception of the sovereign debt crisis, indicating contagion effects. Moreover, our findings show that the parameter of the standardized negative residuals is statistically significant in the case of DCC estimates between two specific institutions. This suggests that the conditional correlation of stock returns between the two institutions is more significantly influenced by negative shocks than by positive innovations to return.