震动楼市

汶川大地震对房地产市场产生了哪些方面的影响?影响究竟会有多大?它给市场带来了什么样的变数?未来的走势和格局又将如何?通过深度观察可知,地震给楼市带来的影响即使不是直接的破坏,也必将是深层次的调整     

The housing market

The housing market has gained further momentum with activity accelerating and prices continuing to increase strongly on all measures in Q3. This trend is expected to continue, with the latest survey data from RICS reporting strong growth in new buyer enquiries and – to a lesser extent – in new instructions…     

The housing market

The recovery in the housing market has continued, with house prices picking up on all measures over the past few months. And there are encouraging signs of underlying strength, with the latest survey data from RICS reporting healthy growth in both new buyer enquiries and new instructions…     

Forecasting the US housing market

The recent housing market boom and bust in the United States illustrates that real estate returns are characterized by short-term positive serial correlation and long-term mean reversion to fundamental values. We develop an econometric model that includes these two components, but with weights that vary dynamically through time depending on recent forecasting performances. The smooth transition weighting mechanism can assign more weight to positive serial correlation in boom times, and more weight to reversal to fundamental values during downturns. We estimate the model with US national house price index data. In-sample, the switching mechanism significantly improves the fit of the model. In an out-of-sample forecasting assessment the model performs better than competing benchmark models.     

房地产市场走向分化

今年上半年,房价总水平出现高位涨势趋缓的迹象,整个行业面临全面调整,预计下半年房价涨幅将稳步回落,市场将稳步发展今年以来,房地产市场延续着去年末销售量下降的状况,市场继续低迷,未来走势如何,社会各界十分关注。关键是应该认     

Price discrimination in the housing market

There is little credible evidence on whether price discrimination exists in the housing market. Using a large sample of single-family home sales from Florida where both the race of the seller and buyer are known, we present evidence using the traditional and Harding et al. [HRS, Harding, J.P., Rosenthal, S., Sirmans, D.F., 2003. Establishing bargaining power in the market for existing homes. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85, (1) 178–188] approaches to empirical estimation. Omitted variable bias is found to plague the traditional approach. Results from following the HRS approach indicate that price discrimination exists by whites and Hispanics against blacks and Asians. Price discrimination against blacks is restricted to non-majority black neighborhoods and is smaller in magnitude in neighborhoods containing younger and more educated homeowners.     

Predicting turning points in the housing market

We identify leading indicators of changes in the housing market and compare their performance in predicting turning points. Being able to predict turning points is of importance to the home building industry, homeowners, and makers of housing policy. Our leading indicators include the Wells Fargo/NAHB Housing Market Index, two of its forward looking components, and an index of consumer sentiment regarding purchasing a home. Our comparison tests include Granger causality and a Bayesian predictor of the probability of a turning point. We find that the measure of consumer sentiment performs relatively well compared to the HMI in predicting home permits, housing starts, and new home sales.     

住宅销售市场仍大有可为

2008年以来,突然的市场转向使很多房地产企业措手不及,很多人把市场回暖的希望寄托在宏观经济周期和政府的救市政策上.但在经济下行周期就只有撤出房地产市场这一条路吗?房地产业没有了政府的政策救市,是不是只能坐以待毙?……     

深圳市场尚在调整中

今年6月,深圳市房地产研究中心发布了一份市场分析报告,被舆论普遍认为是在呼吁政府救市.其实市场本身是不需要救的,它有一个自我调节过程.……     

住宅细分市场差异明显

2008年,中国房地产市场遭遇了十年来最大一次寒流.国家统计局数据显示,2008年1～12月,全国商品房销售面积6.2亿平方米,同比下降19.7%.其中,商品住宅销售面积下降20.3%.……     

住宅市场产品分化加速

2009年,国内住宅产品市场发展将大致向两端分化:一种是政府主导的保障性住房,另一种是开发商主导的个性化高端产品.这种变化主要取决于当前市场结构和开发模式的转变.……     

从恩格斯论住宅看中国房地产市场

要弄清中国房地产市场发展问题,首先必须弄清楚住房的性质问题。恩格斯对此曾有专门论述,透过他的论述,我们或许可以从另一个角度来思考当前的住房问题     

新加坡:从房屋转售看地产市场

新加坡建屋发展局房地行政与产业处处长叶振铭这样表示:公共住屋(组屋)、教育、医疗劳动福利,这是新加坡社会的4大支柱,而公共住屋(组屋)又是其中的重中之重.……     

韩国住房市场中的政府干预

回顾了韩国住房市场政府干预的背景,总结了其政策目标、政策工具及政府干预的框架体系.     

Toward efficiency in the crude-oil market

The ‘official’ (OPEC) prices of crude oil before the collapse in the oil market in the mid-1980s can be interpreted as contract prices and analysed on the basis of the theory of futures (or forward) markets. This paper uses the generalized method of moments estimation technique to test for efficiency in the relationship between the official prices and the ex-post spot prices at the time of delivery. Efficiency is rejected for the sample period 1978–1985 as a whole, but evidence is found of improvements over time. Further, the GMM Wald and Hansen tests, although asymptotically equivalent, are shown to differ greatly when applied to a small sample of monthly oil price data.     

迪拜拖累阿联酋地产市场

不少人还记得,2005年在迪拜世贸中心举办的名为城市空间(Cityscape)的地产投资展是如何吸引全世界地产人士的目光的.在当时,共有来自51个国家和地区的300多家展商参加了会展,超过1.7万人参加了这一地产盛会,总成交额超过1000亿迪尔汗(约2200亿人民币).但是,那时就有许多专家对迪拜地产还能火多久提出了疑问.如今,专家所担心的问题已经浮出了水面.……     

热闹的武汉二手房市

日前,记者从武汉市房地产中介协会了解到,受一手房大量上市、开盘价格走跌和市场大环境的影响,目前武汉二手房交易总体成交量持续萎缩.……