海洋经济攻与守

策划前言＂蓝色经济＂在被人提及、引述时,常被默认为含有＂高新＂之意。其实,真正具有＂高新＂属性的蓝色产业,如今在中国海洋经济总产值中占比极少。目前中国海洋经济产值中,四大劳动密集型产业——海洋渔业、海洋交通运输业、船舶工业、滨海旅游业占有3/4江山。海洋渔业方面,中国自1990年始已是＂世界第一海产品大国＂;海洋交通运输业方面,中国港口吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量连续10年世界第一;船舶工业方面,中国于2010年超越韩国,跻身产量冠军。因此,虽然中国高调提出＂海洋经济”的概念只是近几年的事,鲁、浙、粤、闽四大海洋经济区的设立迟至2010年与2011年,可事实上中国早已是海洋经济大国。     

海洋产业安全形势与应对思路

中国海洋产业在快速发展中不可避免地受到国际因素的影响,海洋自然灾害、海洋权益冲突、海洋市场波动等诸多方面的风险因素都会不同程度危及海洋产业安全;随着中国参与全球海洋管理与合作的力度不断深化,海洋产业安全形势有望逐步改善,但加快产业结构优化、提升海洋开发实力、完善海洋产业管理体系仍然是海洋产业应对国际风险的根本路径。     

海洋社会学研究亟待加强

21世纪是海洋的世纪。＂海洋世纪＂呼唤海洋社会学。海洋社会学的研究领域很广,概括起来主要有海洋社区研究;海洋群体和组织研究;人类海洋活动与生活方式研究、海洋社会问题研究;社会冲突与控制研究;海洋社会变迁、城市化与现代化研究;海洋观与海洋意识研究;海洋宗教与民间信仰研究;海洋民俗研究;海洋政治研究;海洋政策研究等。     

海洋工程装备前景需求加大

近些年来,我国船舶和海洋工程项目有了突飞猛进的发展,取得了举世瞩目的成绩。但与世界先进国家相比,海洋工程还有一定的差距。当前海洋油气田开采工程已列入国家重点扶持项目,海洋工程装备似乎是一夜之间成为中国造船等重型制造业巨头们争抢的＂香饽饽＂。这究竟是怎样的一个产业？其诱惑力到底何在？     

广东省新一轮海洋经济发展已被纳入国家宏观规划

继2010年广东省被列为全国海洋经济发展试点地区后,日前《广东省海洋功能区划（2011-2020年）》得到批复,这意味着广东省新一轮海洋经济发展已被全面纳入国家宏观规划。＂党的十八大报告提出＂发展海洋经济＂＂建设海洋强国＂等论述,体现了党中央对海洋工作的高度重视,也为广东海洋经济转型发展指明了方向。＂广东省委、省政府认为,当前广东海洋事业发展正站在一个新的历史起点上,面临新的历史发展机遇。广东将把发展海洋经济作为加快转型升级的重要引擎来抓,力争在全国率先建成海洋经济强省。为顺应经济转型大潮,广东已将海洋经济定位为重要主攻载体,把扩充经济总量、推动经济转型升级的重要着力点放在海洋经济上。日前广东省委、省政府印发的《关于充分发挥海洋资源优势,努力建设海洋经济强省的决定》以及发展临海工业、海洋新兴产业、滨海旅游业等实施方案,     

海洋行政管理是建设海洋强省的有力保障

最近,胡锦涛总书记在广东考察工作时指出：＂要按照国家批准的《广东海洋经济综合试验区发展规划》,合理开发利用海洋资源,努力打造海洋经济强省＂。为深入学习贯彻胡总书记的这一重要讲话精神,研讨落实汪洋书记提出的＂把广东建设成为提升我国海洋经济国际竞争力的核心区和全国海洋生态文明建设的示范区＂的指示要求,中共广东省委宣传部、广东省社会科学界联合会2011年9月30日在中国科学院南海海洋研究所学术报告厅主办＂岭南学术论坛第58期——海洋开发与广东经济科学发展论坛＂。论坛主讲嘉宾分别为中科院南海海洋研究所党委书记兼副所长、博导黄良民（主讲海洋科学）,省社科院院长、北大经济学院兼职博导梁桂全（主讲海洋开发战略）,省海洋与渔业局党组书记、局长郑伟仪（主讲海洋行政管理）。省社科院海洋经济研究中心主任、《新经济》杂志社社长杨明担任论坛主持。本期论坛由广东省市场经济促进会和省社科院海洋经济研究中心共同承办,《南方日报》、《南方新闻网》、《新经济》杂志为特约支持媒体。现编发论坛三位主讲专家的演讲（节选）和部分论文,供读者参阅（论坛三位主讲专家的演讲全文请参阅《南方新闻网》岭南学术论坛第58期专辑）。     

上海世博会带给中国的核心资产该是什么？

上海世博会的核心资产应具有特殊性、全局性、长期性的战略特征。目前很多认识到的资产太过＂小家子气＂。核心资产必须紧紧围绕灵魂。建议从＂中国与世界的大联系＂的视角来认识上海世博会的核心资产,在剩下的一年里尽力打造＂海洋文化＂这一核心资产。     

疍家人 从七千年前漂来的中国海洋族群

中国文化往往被认为是＂农耕文明＂的代表,中国人则被视作＂大陆族群＂。然而,一群被称作＂疍家人＂的中国人,不仅在数千年的岁月里世世代代以海洋为生,甚至会＂晕陆＂。世界上长于航海的民族不少,诸如赫赫有名的腓尼基人、     

20世纪90年代中国海洋经济的高速增长与新世纪的展望

本文分析了９０年代中国海洋经济高速增长的原因,海洋经济增长速率,以及在国民经济中的比重、主要海洋产业部门增长及特点。展望了２１世纪－开发海洋世纪,中国海洋经济发展前景,并提出了中国建成为海洋强国及海洋经济可持续发展的对策与措施。     

海洋强省战略下推动江苏海洋科教事业高质量发展的思考

江苏海洋高质量发展的关键在于沿海地区,而江苏沿海地区的经济实力、高端要素集聚与辐射功能、科技教育水平等明显偏弱,对海洋经济发展的支撑力度不足。经济发展需要把重心聚焦于科技进步和人才素质提高,海洋经济高质量发展亟须海洋科教崛起。目前,江苏海洋科教存在高端人才紧缺、科技研发与创新能力不足、资源缺乏有效整合等问题。本文根据江苏海洋科教的现实情况和发展特点,提出优化海洋人才结构、加强海洋科技创新平台支撑、优化海洋科技成果转化环境、加强国际科教合作等建议,旨在促进江苏海洋科教事业高质量发展,提高海洋科技创新能力。     

论河北省农业和农村产业结构的调整与优化

我国加入WTO后，农产品市场逐步开放，农业发展将面临更加激烈的竞争，农业中的矛盾与城乡居民收入、消费、就业结构变动结合在一起，已成为制约新阶段农业和农村经济发展的主要问题。本通过对河北省农业和农村产业结构存在问题及产业结构调整面监障碍的分析，提出了新阶段河北省农业和农村产业结构高速的思路与措施。     

Information And Communication Technology And The Measurement Of Volume Output And Final Demand - A Five-Country Study

Information and communication technology (ICT) products have undergone rapid technical change. Where quality improvements occur, they should be reflected in official price and quantity indices, otherwise there is a tendency to over-estimate price movements and under-estimate volume changes of ICT products. Statistical offices deal with this issue but the degree and nature of quality-adjustment of price indices of ICT products varies considerably between OECD countries. The present study simulates measurement effects on key economic variables (real output, private final consumption, government expenditure, investment, exports and imports) and productivity, under the assumption that the price indices of ICT products are fully quality-adjusted. The paper draws on a large selection of empirical studies to identify differences between quality-adjusted and unadjusted price changes and uses detailed information from input-output tables to assess their weights in final demand. Effects on GDP and its components are quantified for five selected OECD countries.     

Computers And Growth

The purpose of this paper is to describe the impact of investment in computers on the growth of the U.S. economy. The economic literature on computers is relatively rich in information on the decline in computer prices and the growth of computer investment. Constant quality price indices for computers have been included in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) since 1986. These indices employ state of the art methodology to capture the rapid evolution of computer technology.

While the annual inflation rate for overall investment has been 3.66 percent for the period 1958 to 1992, computer prices have declined by 19.13 percent per year! Similarly, overall investment grew at 3.82 percent, while investment in computers increased at an astounding 44.34 percent! These familiar facts describe growth in the output of computers. The objective of this paper is to complete the picture by analyzing the growth of computer services as inputs.

In a pioneering paper Bresnahan (1986) has focused on pecuniary externalities arising from the rapid decline in computer prices. Griliches (1992, 1994) has emphasized the distinction between pecuniary and nonpecuniary externalities in the impact of computer investment on growth. This paper is limited to pecuniary externalities or the impact of reductions in computer prices on the substitution of computer services for other inputs. As Griliches (1992) points out, this is an essential first step in identifying nonpecuniary externalities or ‘spill-overs’ through the impact of a decline in computer prices on productivity growth. ^{* *}Brynjolfsson (1993) has proveded a detailed survey of studies of nonpecuniary externalities or ‘spill overs’. Recent studies include those of Brynjolfsson and Hitt (1994a, 1994b) and Lichtenberg (1993).

In two important papers Stephen D. Oliner (1993, 1994) has introduced a model of computer technology that greatly facilitates the measurement of computer services as inputs. In this paper we estimate computer stocks and flows of computer services for all forms of computer investment included in NIPA. We construct estimates of computer services parallel to NIPA data on computer investment by combining these data with information on computer inventories. For example, the International Data Corporation (IDC) Census of Computer Processors includes an annual inventory of processors in the U.S.

In Section 1 we present data on investment in computers and constant quality price indices from NIPA. These data incorporate important innovations in modeling computer technology stemming from a joint study by IBM and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) completed in 1985. This study utilized a ‘hedonic’ methodology for constructing an econometric model of computer prices that accurately reflects rapid changes in computer technology. This methodology generates an index of computer prices that holds the quality of computers constant.

In Section 2 we present the model of computer services originated by Oliner (1993,1994). This differs in important respects from the model of capital services used in the previous studies of U.S. economic growth surveyed by Jorgenson (1989,1990). The model employed in previous studies is based on the decline in productive capacity with the chronological age of a capital good. Oliner assumes that computers maintain their productive capacity until they are retired. Decline in productive capacity occurs only through removal of used computers from the inventory through retirement.

In Section 3 we construct estimates of stocks of computers that incorporate IDC data on computer inventories and derive the implied flow of computer services. While output of computer investments has grown very rapidly, the input of computer services has grown even faster. The price of these services has declined at 23.22 percent per year over the period 1958 to 1992, while the input of these services has grown at 52.82 percent! This is prima facie evidence of an important role for computer price declines as a source of pecuniary externalities.

In Section 4 we combine computer services with the services of other types of capital to produce a measure of capital input into the U.S. economy. We link this with labor input to obtain the contributions of both inputs to U.S. economic growth, arriving at the growth of productivity as a residual. We find that the contribution of computer services to input into the U.S. economy is far more important than the contribution of computer investments to output. This is a significant step toward resolution of the Solow paradox: ‘We see computers everywhere except in the productivity statistics. ^{* *}Robert M. Solow, quoted by Brynjolfsson (1993). Declines in computer prices generate very sizable pecuniary externalities through the substitution of computer services for other inputs. By contrast Solow focuses on nonpecuniary externalities that would appear as productivity growth.

In Section 5 we conclude that information on inventories of computers is critical in quantifying the role of computer services as inputs. The constant quality price indices for computers incorporated into NIPA are also essential. A price index for computers that reflects only general trends in inflation would result in a highly distorted perspective on the growth of GDP and capital services, especially during the past decade. To capture the contribution of all forms of investment to U.S. economic growth, similar price indices should be included in NIPA for capital goods with rapidly evolving technologies, as proposed by Gordon (1990).

The long term goal should be a unified system of income. product, and wealth accounts, like that proposed by Laurits Christensen and Jorgenson (1973) and Jorgenson (1980). This incorporates capital stocks, capital services, and their prices. Achieving this goal will necessitate much greater elaboration of the accounting system described in Section 3. These accounts would incorporate data on prices and quantities of investment, stocks of assets, and capital services for all forms of capital employed in the U.S. economy.     

银行会计风险防范的具体建议与对策

防范银行会计风险是一项系统工程 ,涉及到银行工作的方方面面 ,需要按照社会主义市场经济的要求 ,认真贯彻会计的谨慎性原则 ,不断建立、健全各种防范机制 ,构建高效的会计风险监督保障系统 ,进一步加强银行会计信息的披露与揭示 ,提高信息的使用价值 ,才能有效化解目前我国商业银行潜在的和现实的会计风险     

对以色列经贸市场的分析与探讨

从中国公司的认知角度出发,对以色列的经济状况、中以经贸关系和劳务合作等行业进行分析和探索.对未来两国经贸发展的展望,作为我国企业到以色列开展经贸业务的参考.     

对以色列经贸市场的分析与探讨

从中国公司的认知角度出发,时以色列的经济状况、中以经贸关系和劳务合作等行业进行分析和探索,对未来两国经贸发展的展望,作为我国企业到以色列开展经贸业务的参考.     

Marshallian Externalities And The Emergence And Spatial Stability Of Technological Enclaves *

Technological dualism often is found to be associated with the geographical clustering of firms that use the same techniques. To shed further light on these localization phenomena, we analyze the long-run dynamic behavior of a system in which firms' choices among alternative production methods (each of which requires a technique-specific input) are influenced by both firm-specific random shocks and Marshallian ‘industrial neighborhood’ effects. The latter are local factor market externalities that tend to lower the relative marginal costs d those inputs that are used most extensively in the immediate locale. The model developed here focuses on labor market externalities affecting the supply conditions for workers with technology-specific skills, and their effect on the choices made by producers at various sites whose choice of technique is subject to periodic revisions. A special structure familiar in the applied theory of Markov random fields, the stochastic Ising model. provides a reduced-form representation of this dynamic spatial system. The general properties of models of this type and their application in economics are considered. Discrete time numerical simulations of the behavior of an ensemble of firms (located at the nodes of a finite lattice formed on a two-dimensional (orus) shows that positive neighborhood externalities effects do not necessarily result in the uniquitous diffusion of one of the two available technologies. Instead. this system exhibits a spatially localized form of ‘technological dualism," in which at least two technological enclaves emerge and undergo path-dependent evolution. The temporal durations of these spatial patterns in technology adoption are affected by parameters of the Ising model that can be given a straightforward economic interpretation     

Habits And Durability In Consumption And The Effects Of Exchange Rate Policies

The effects of exchange rate policies are worked out in a model in which consumption goods are durable, and money enters the utility function. The interaction of habits and durability results in a non-monotonic adjustment of consumption expenditures, and the current account. As money does not exhibit durability, its dynamics are montonic, and determined mainly by habits effects. Hence, an increase in the rate of depreciation of the domestic currency will very likely lead to a nomonotonic adjustment of consumption and the current account, while the adjustment of real money holdings will be monotonic [F31, F32, F41]     

Extraneous Alternatives And Strategy-Proofness

It is well known that the Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem cannot be circumvented by adding extraneous alternatives that are included in the individual preference information but are never selected. We generalize this by proving that, for any domain on which every strategy-proof rule is dictatorial, the addition of extraneous alternatives will not permit the construction of a non-dictatorial and strategy-proof rule if the new domain is a product set. We show how this result, and our other theorem, can be applied to seven families of social choice situations, including those in which more than one alternative is selected.