More on parametric characterizations of risk aversion and prudence

Summary. This note provides an alternative proof for the equivalence of decreasing absolute prudence (DAP) in the expected utility framework and in a two-parametric approach where utility is a function of the mean and the standard deviation. In addition, we elucidate that the equivalence of DAP and the concavity of utility as a function of mean and variance, which was shown to hold for normally distributed stochastics in Lajeri and Nielsen [4], cannot be generalized. Received: November 27, 2000; revised version: November 26, 2001 Correspondence to: T. Eichner     

On the utility premium of Friedman and Savage

We re-examine the utility premium of Friedman–Savage [Friedman, Milton and Savage, Leonard J., “The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk.” Journal of Political Economy 56, 1948, pp. 279–304.]. This measure is useful in understanding risky choices. For instance its reaction to an increased wealth equates to a precautionary demand for saving. We also analyze its two components.     

Dose response functions and the harvesting effect

Much of the existing literature on air pollution and mortality deals only with the short-term effects of air pollution. Policy on the other hand needs to know when, whether and to what extent pollution-induced increases in mortality counts are reversed. This involves modelling the entire infinite distributed-lag effect of air pollution on mortality counts.Using an ARMAX modelling strategy this paper illustrates how distributed lag effects can be parsimoniously but plausibly estimated in the context of a time-series study into the relationship between ambient levels of air pollution and daily mortality counts for Manchester. The analysis reveals that maximum 1-h ozone levels are strongly associated with daily mortality counts and that a significant harvesting effect is present. The mortality cost of peak 1-h ozone concentrations for Greater Manchester with a population of 2.6 million is estimated to be £572 million annually. This accounts for the fact that some of the deaths associated with maximum 1-h O₃ concentrations have been advanced only by a short period of time.     

Individual preferences and the effect of uncertainty on irreversible investment

This paper considers a relationship between investment behavior and an agent’s preferences in a stochastic one-sector growth model with irreversible investment. Further, it explores the effect of uncertainty in investment policies by using a non-expected utility function. Since uncertainty has an impact on investment policies not only through an option value but also through a risk-adjusted time preference rate in a general equilibrium framework, it is significant to distinguish the two preference parameters of the agent. While the previous partial equilibrium models with irreversible investment have exhibited a negative relationship between the desired capital stock and uncertainty, this paper implies that it is possible to generate a positive relationship for the appropriate parameters. This shows that the results of Hartman and Abel have been robust even in a general equilibrium model.     

Individual versus group behavior and the role of the decision making procedure in gift-exchange experiments

We test for behavioral differences between groups and individuals in gift-exchange experiments. Related studies in economics establish group behavior as often closer to the standard game-theoretic equilibrium under the assumptions of rationality and selfishness. We show that this result may depend crucially on the decision making procedure within groups and the nature of the task. A novel experimental decision making protocol opens the black box of group decision making and allows tracking important features of the group interaction process. We are also able to show that acting in a group may shift initial individual choices.

家族企业治理结构的演进逻辑与效用分析

家族企业是市场经济中现代企业群体的母体和重要的企业组织形态，其相应的公司治理结构在家族企业的不同成长时期既呈现出优势的一面又呈现出劣势的一面，但其效率本身并无绝对的高低之分。随着家族企业的发展，家族企业的治理模式也应不断的优化，相应地构建适合其发展进程的治理结构，其生命力才能得到不断的延伸。     

A grey decision and prediction model for investment in the core competitiveness of product development

Because enterprises do not disclose their internal specific cost information to the public and, moreover, every firm has its own product character and financial constitutions, it is difficult to offer fixed guidelines for investment decisions. Thus, an enterprise may be uncertain when required to choose the most promising set of possible investments.The goal of this research is to use a grey relation analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to probe the core product development and competitiveness of an enterprise from limited data and, furthermore, by constructing the grey model, GM(1,1), to validate the feasibility of this assessment of the core competitiveness and investment strategy. In this study, a precision mechanical manufacturer is taken as an example, and the forecast estimate from this method is compared to those of a linear regression and the actual values to demonstrate the feasibility of applying this methodology to investment decision making, hence, demonstrating the value of this research.     

The deregulation of international trucking in the European Union: form and effect

We describe the regulatory regime under which international trucking operated in Western Europe until the mid-1980s, the deregulatory process that followed, and the effect of this deregulation. We find that deregulation had a large positive effect on the growth of international trucking. We also find that shippers shifted toward more outsourcing of their trucking needs, but this occurred to an even greater extent in local and national road transport. We conclude that other factors beside the deregulation of international trucking affected the organization of the industry at the time. Finally, despite concerns voiced by member countries, we find no evidence that deregulation disproportionately favored carriers of countries that were initially more (or less) involved in international trucking, nor that it has favored low-wage countries.      

The relative interior of the base polyhedron and the core

Summary. This note provides two necessary and sufficient conditions for the relative interior of the core (and the base polyhedron) to be non-empty: (i) the second largest excess of the prenucleolus is negative; (ii) the grand coalition's payoff is greater than the minimum no-blocking payoff. Such conditions imply an intuitive method in proving core existence, they also imply results on the sensitivity of the base polyhedron and the core. Received: June 25, 1999; revised version: May 8, 2000     

阶级的形成：建筑工地上的劳动控制与建筑工人的集体抗争

大工地是中国社会生产关系和制度变革的产物,它又如一个缩影,揭示了三十年改革所造成的全部社会冲突和矛盾。被投掷于资本主义生产关系之中的建筑工人,以对强加在他们身上的剥削的最直接、自发的反抗,顽强地将多方力量遮蔽的阶级结构及阶级对立暴露在世人面前,并呼唤自己作为一个阶级存在的合法性。本文记录了分包劳动体制下建筑工人挣扎求生存的苦难,以及一个新兴工人阶级艰难孕育的历程。     

Neoliberalism and Class Reproduction in India: The Political Economy of Privatisation in the Mineral Sector in the Indian State of Orissa

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed a process of integration of the Indian Union within the new international economic order, characterised by the ascendance of neoliberalism. Orissa, historically one of the Indian states mostly affected by severe poverty and economic stagnation though richly endowed with natural resources, has enthusiastically endorsed the neo-liberal project, implementing all the relevant national policies related to it. In the last 15 years, while the economic policy of the State of Orissa has been thus increasingly shaped according to the neoliberal guidelines recommended by the Centre, the disturbing socio-economic scenario of the State has not changed significantly. This paper aims to highlight how specific power relations in the State of Orissa are reproducing themselves in the course of the transition of the Indian Union towards the neoliberal order. This paper aims to consider as an example of this process the privatisation policies in the mining sector, namely the main economic sector of Orissa. Moving from the fundamental role historically played by Orissa within the Indian Union as a supplier of raw materials to the pan-Indian market, the paper intends to highlight the rentier character of the Orissan dominant class, traditionally capable of performing a basic intermediary function in the provision of raw materials to the Indian market. Once taken into account the socio-economic role historically played by the local dominant class in Orissa within the context of the wider capitalist dynamics at work at the all-Indian level, the paper will focus on the scenario which came into being since the start of the neoliberal economic reforms in 1991. The major shifts in the mineral policy at the central level since 1991 will be taken into account and, within this context, the implementation of privatisation policy in the mineral sector in Orissa will be analysed, with special reference its socio-economic implications. The paper aims to highlight the way in which the State of Orissa has broadened its traditional role, becoming an important supplier of raw material not only to the all-Indian market, but to the international market in general. It will be argued as well that, in continuity with the past, the intermediary function of the local dominant class in this process has remained fundamental. Therefore the paper aims to argue that the current scenario supports the proposition that the unfolding of neoliberal dynamics in Orissa opened the way for the creation of new spaces of social reproduction for the local dominant class and, with them, for the reproduction of old relations of power and social domination in the State.     

Testing the effect of technical analysis on market quality and order book dynamics

We find empirical support for the theoretical finding in agent-based models of limit order book markets that the effect of technical trading on market quality is not positive. When signals occur, technical traders lower liquidity as proxied by the relative spread, the effective spread, the realized spread, the dispersion and the slope in the order book. Technical trading is also found to be accompanied by rising volatility. There is overall strong empirical support against the hypothesis that technical trading has no effect on order book dynamics.     

Cost-effectiveness of alemtuzumab and natalizumab for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treatment in Iran: decision analysis based on an indirect comparison

Background: Alemtuzumab and natalizumab are approved as second-line therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients in Iran who have shown an inadequate response to other disease-modifying therapy (DMT). In the absence of head-to-head trials, evaluations based on decision analytic modeling may be a suitable alternative to compare alemtuzumab and natalizumab in RRMS.

Purpose: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alemtuzumab compared with natalizumab in RRMS in Iran, based on an indirect comparison of clinical trial data.

Methods: A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a cohort-based Markov model to analyze cost-utility in a cohort of 1,000 RRMS patients treated with alemtuzumab or natalizumab who had failed at least one previous DMT. Costs were measured in 2018?US Dollars, and were estimated from both the societal and National Healthcare Service (NHS) perspective over a 20-year time horizon in Iran. One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out to investigate the impact of individual variables on model results.

Results: Alemtuzumab dominated natalizumab in both NHS and societal perspective analyses. From the NHS perspective, the total discounted costs per patient were estimated at $147,417 and $150,579 for alemtuzumab and natalizumab, respectively, over 20 years. The discounted quality-adjusted life years were estimated to be 7.07 and 6.05, respectively. Results were similar for the societal perspective analysis. Results were most sensitive to acquisition costs and the time horizon, while no sensitivity was observed for Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) health-states utility, relapse relative risk, adverse event or EDSS-related costs, and laboratory/monitoring costs.

Conclusion: Alemtuzumab was dominant in the treatment of RRMS compared with natalizumab due to lower total cost, greater efficacy and slowing of disease progression, and lower rate of relapses over a 20-year time horizon in Iran. Comparative head-to-head trials and long-term follow-up are needed to confirm these results.     

速度层次交流理论及其在农村剩余劳动力转移中的应用

农村剩余劳动力转移问题能否合理解决 ,不仅直接影响到中国农民收入、农民生活条件和实现农业现代化的进程 ,而且也关系到非农产业乃至整个国民经济的协调发展。在本文中作者提出了速度层次交流理论 ,并从该理论出发提出解决中国农村剩余劳动力的相关政策建议及措施。     

Monitoring trends of technological changes based on the dynamic patent lattice: A modified formal concept analysis approach

The strategic importance of monitoring technological changes is highlighted given the ever faster pace and increasing complexity of technological innovation. In this respect, patent citation analysis has been the most frequently adopted tool among others. However, patent citation analysis is subject to certain drawbacks that stem from only consideration of citing-cited information and time lags between citing and cited patents. This study proposes a formal concept analysis (FCA)-based approach to developing a dynamic patent lattice that can analyze complex relations among patents and monitor trends of technological changes. The FCA is a mathematical tool for grouping objects with shared properties based on the lattice theory. The distinct strengths of FCA, vis-á-vis other methods, lie in structuring and displaying the relations among objects from a massive amount of data. For the purpose of technology monitoring, the FCA is modified to take into account time periods and changes of patent keywords. A patent context is first constructed with the aid of domain experts and text mining technique. Two types of dynamic patent lattices are then developed by executing the modified FCA algorithm. A case study of laser technology in lithography for semiconductor manufacturing shows that the suggested dynamic patent lattice has considerable advantages over conventional patent citation maps in terms of visualization and informative power.     

金融发展对科技创新影响的实证研究--基于北京市和上海市的比较分析

文章采用1991-2012年北京市和上海市的时间序列数据对金融发展与科技创新之间的关系进行实证研究。首先介绍北京市和上海市金融发展和科技创新的现状,其次构建模型进行协整分析检验,并采用格兰杰因果检验方法来说明金融发展对科技创新的影响,研究结果表明：北京市的金融发展能够促进科技创新,而科技创新并不能反过来促进金融发展,两者之间是单向因果关系;上海市金融发展与科技创新之间是双向因果关系,金融发展促进科技创新,科技创新也能反过来促进金融发展。最后提出优化发展环境,促进金融发展,营造金融生态环境,加快金融改革创新等相关建议。     

科技型中小企业融资履约保险博弈机制--基于多期支付的研究视角

文章基于保险公司与科技型中小企业之间的风险分担博弈模型,对科技型中小企业同时存在道德风险和逆向选择时,保险公司所要采取的动态激励进行了分析研究。通过博弈论和委托—代理理论,讨论了存在两阶段动态博弈时,保险公司可以通过观察第一年内的违约频率来估计未来承保期可能的损失,并判断科技型中小企业采取的最优努力水平,以决定是否继续发放贷款以及后一阶段的保费。保险公司和银行可以通过监控科技型中小企业的历史经营数据等内部数据以及纳税记录、客户反馈等外部数据,以改善金融机构与科技型中小企业间信息不对称的格局,清晰地甄别出企业的风险状况,为制定差异化保险费率和发放贷款数额提供数据支持。该研究对保险公司制定费率有一定的理论意义。     

略论中国场外交易市场风险的制度特征及特殊性

本文分析了我国场外交易市场的制度特征及其风险的特殊性;探讨了风险形成的原因,从市场准入、信息披露、监管模式等方面提出了防范风险的思路。     

服务业FDI对我国服务业增长效应研究

本文运用协整分析和面板数据分析对服务业利用FDI对我国服务业总体和各主要行业增长效应进行实证研究。协整分析结果表明,服务业FDI和我国服务业总体增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,服务业FDI促进了我国服务业总体增长。面板数据变系数模型结果表明,不同服务行业利FDI对行业增长效应存在很大的差异性,调整我国服务业FDI的行业流向具有很大的现实意义。在上述分析的基础上,提出相关政策建议。     

地方政府债务风险构成及预警评价模型构建初探

政府债务风险是我国当前与今后一个时期面临的主要风险之一.本文通过分析地方政府债务形成因素和风险形成的原因,对债务和风险进行了分类,提出有针对性的债务风险评价指标体系,并对此指标体系提出模糊数学综合评价计算方法.